Is the # 5 seed the most

[Holycrossover3]

The reason the 5th seed is sometimes seen as more beneficial compared to a 1 or 2 seed is based on making it to the semi final, or the final 4 teams.

Many believe the 5 seed has a better chance of beating the 12 seed and the 4 seed than the 1 or the 2 seed has of beating a team in their 2nd round game.

If you look at the teams that would have to play, I would agree a team like ND in the 5 seed would have a great chance of beating ASU at home and then beating Boise St than a team like Oregon would have beating Ohio State or Tennessee.

 

[Get Nasty]

So could Unlv Arizona state or Miami

Sure, but you'll take a bye all day every day instead of the 5 seed

 

[echowaker]

No. You still have to play an extra game. If you assume the 1 seed has a 50 percent chance in their first game and second game (which is being generous because they will likely be slightly more probable to win than that) that’s still a 25 percent chance to make it.

Highly unlikely the 5 seed is going to consistently draw better matchups than the 1 seed to make playing an extra game the better proposition

The #1 seed plays an extra game too. It's called a conference championship game.

 

[echowaker]

This is completely irrelevant to my point.

When the playoff starts 4 teams will only have to win 3 games. 8 will have to win 4.

Think of a coin flip. What is the probability of flipping heads 4 straight times. What’s the probability of flipping heads 3 straight times.

Obviously football games are not always 50/50. The 5 is only an advantage over a 1 depending on matchups. I expect most of the time the matchups would play out that a 1 seed is more advantageous than a 5 seed

They're still playing the same number of games.

 

[savvyandsassier]

I would imagine they will change the setup somehow, even if they stay with 12 teams and don't expand to 16. Probably for that reason, and it will quickly be considered too outrageous. Unacceptable that some team on the basic merits would be a 12 seed nevertheless is the 3rd seed. And besides, as far as the ethics of it if you will, I don't think there's any philosophical imperative to give an autobid champion a top seed and a 1st round bye. Only that they get a bid, and if they have three losses, and it's some mortal disgrace that they're even in the field at all, then give them an appropriate seed based on their little power rating. And put them at the bottom, they're in the field, they have no complaints. But maybe I'm missing something as far as the philosophical justice of it. I can't even remember how they do seeding in professional sports.

 

[Patrish]

Sure, but you'll take a bye all day every day instead of the 5 seed

You don’t get it
You don’t have a choice
Based on the structure, seeds 1-4 are already taken
Stop mentally masturbating

 

[Patrish]

The #1 seed plays an extra game too. It's called a conference championship game.

👍

 

[Golson5]

But if Clemson or SMU lose the ACC conference championship game they are done

If Iowa State or Arizona State lose their BIG12 conference championship game they are done. See the difference?

Smu may still be in. Clemson would be

Sure, but you'll take a bye all day every day instead of the 5 seed

If I knew the 12 seed was one of those teams I personally would take the 5 see because of the 2nd rd

 

[Get Nasty]

Smu may still be in. Clemson would be

If I knew the 12 seed was one of those teams I personally would take the 5 see because of the 2nd rd

maybe...... but the initial question is the 5 seed the best spot in the playoffs?

I agree the 5 seed can be more favorable for 2nd round than some others, but it's really hard ( to not take a bye). I doubt any coach would rather risk a loss instead of advancing.

 

[Fightingirish595]

They're still playing the same number of games.

one team has to go 4-0. The other can go 3-1.

This really isn’t rocket science

 

[NDinNJ]

Just looking at the rankings. If Texas, Oregon, SMU, and Boise win. The seeding could go:
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Boise State
5. Notre Dame
6. Georgia
7. Penn State
8. Tennessee
9. Ohio State
10. Indiana
11. Alabama
12. ASI/ISU winner

But CFP could swap 11 and 12 or 6 and 7 to avoid a Bama/Georgia rematch.

 

[Fightingirish595]

You don’t get it
You don’t have a choice
Based on the structure, seeds 1-4 are already taken
Stop mentally masturbating

The way your question is worded, it’s very easy to think you were asking if notre dame at the 5 had an advantage over a one seed.

And it’s actually something that’s possible depending on matchups. Maybe not this year but in the future

 

[echowaker]

one team has to go 4-0. The other can go 3-1.

This really isn’t rocket science

You're right and they both add up to 4. Technically a team like Oregon could end up playing 5 post season games as could any loser of a conference championship game. I think ND has a sweet deal in the CFP makeup.

 

[echowaker]

one team has to go 4-0. The other can go 3-1.

This really isn’t rocket science

Can't go 3-1 and win the NC. No one who loses a conference championship game will get a bye.

 

[Fightingirish595]

You're right and they both add up to 4. Technically a team like Oregon could end up playing 5 post season games as could any loser of a conference championship game. I think ND has a sweet deal in the CFP makeup.

I think they got a pretty good deal too. But if you can’t see that only having to win 3 games compared to 4 is an inherent advantage (which can dissipate depending on matchups) then you don’t understand basic probability.

 

[Fightingirish595]

Can't go 3-1 and win the NC. No one who loses a conference championship game will get a bye.

You’re right. I meant 4-1. Notre dame can’t lose any games. Texas has room for error.

 

[Golson5]

You’re right. I meant 4-1. Notre dame can’t lose any games. Texas has room for error.

They would still have to win 4 games in a row like us. Only difference is they will have played 17 games and we would play 16

 

[Golson5]

Just looking at the rankings. If Texas, Oregon, SMU, and Boise win. The seeding could go:
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Boise State
5. Notre Dame
6. Georgia
7. Penn State
8. Tennessee
9. Ohio State
10. Indiana
11. Alabama
12. ASI/ISU winner

But CFP could swap 11 and 12 or 6 and 7 to avoid a Bama/Georgia rematch.

If psu is ahead of Georgia now and they both lose their conference championship game why would Georgia jump them?

OSU should be ahead of at least Tenn in your scenario

 

[NDblitz]

So could Unlv Arizona state or Miami

I would think that if Army wins the AAC they'd get in over UNLV. Don't you think?

 

[Fightingirish595]

They would still have to win 4 games in a row like us. Only difference is they will have played 17 games and we would play 16

They still have to win 4 in a row. If they lose the conference title. When the CFP starts the one seed has to win 3 and the 5 seed has to win 4. This is simple stuff

 

[NDinNJ]

If psu is ahead of Georgia now and they both lose their conference championship game why would Georgia jump them?

OSU should be ahead of at least Tenn in your scenario

It's hypotheticals, but I believe Oregon is going to blow out PSU, and Texas/UGA is going to be close. I even stated CFP could swap PSU and UGA or Alabama and 12 to avoid a UGA/Alabama matchup

 

[Fightingirish595]

I would think that if Army wins the AAC they'd get in over UNLV. Don't you think?

No. UNLV was already ranked higher than army before the week

 

[Fightingirish595]

They would still have to win 4 games in a row like us. Only difference is they will have played 17 games and we would play 16

They only have to win 4 games in a row if they lose the conference title.

 

[Golson5]

I would think that if Army wins the AAC they'd get in over UNLV. Don't you think?

No. Unlv is ranked higher right now and they would be playing Boise. Unlv v Boise winner gets the group spot

 

[Golson5]

They only have to win 4 games in a row if they lose the conference title.

Yeah. We have to win 4. They would have to win 4.

Only difference is they would play 17 total games to our 16

 

[Patrish]

The way your question is worded, it’s very easy to think you were asking if notre dame at the 5 had an advantage over a one seed.

And it’s actually something that’s possible depending on matchups. Maybe not this year but in the future

It’s impossible for Notre Dame to have the # seed under the current structure.

So that was never the issue

 

[Holycrossover3]

Worst case scenario are for teams that make a conference championship game and lose that game. Then, they actually do have an “extra” game on their schedule since they don’t have a bye in the playoff.

ND by default has a “bye” since we don’t have to play a conference championship game.

 

[tbonesays]

The reason the 5th seed is sometimes seen as more beneficial compared to a 1 or 2 seed is based on making it to the semi final, or the final 4 teams.

Many believe the 5 seed has a better chance of beating the 12 seed and the 4 seed than the 1 or the 2 seed has of beating a team in their 2nd round game.

If you look at the teams that would have to play, I would agree a team like ND in the 5 seed would have a great chance of beating ASU at home and then beating Boise St than a team like Oregon would have beating Ohio State or Tennessee.

Will the PC place a conference champion in the 12th slot? It was put together by conferences which are invested in their boring ass CCGs. If the 12th seed is reserved for an SEC team that lost a few games than the benefit to being #5 goes poof.

Also the PC may be tempted to seed based on the playoff matchups instead of their actual rating system, whatever that is. That may mean that ND is fated to play Bama regardless of the ranks.

 

[echowaker]

They still have to win 4 in a row. If they lose the conference title. When the CFP starts the one seed has to win 3 and the 5 seed has to win 4. This is simple stuff

It is simple, some team has to win 4 post season games to win the NC. Whether it's 4 in the CFP or 1 conference championship game and 3 in the CFP. Basically the exact same thing as quality of opponent in conference championship games are also in CFP consideration.

 

[Fightingirish595]

It is simple, some team has to win 4 post season games to win the NC. Whether it's 4 in the CFP or 1 conference championship game and 3 in the CFP. Basically the exact same thing as quality of opponent in conference championship games are also in CFP consideration.

Its pretty astounding you can’t see the main difference between a first round playoff game and a conference championship

 

[NIN Irish]

Its pretty astounding you can’t see the main difference between a first round playoff game and a conference championship

Let it go...let it go, chase