Is the # 5 seed the most
- Thread starter Patrish
- Start date
I believe it is for ND at this point (have to await the conf champ losers to see what slot)
No. You still have to play an extra game. If you assume the 1 seed has a 50 percent chance in their first game and second game (which is being generous because they will likely be slightly more probable to win than that) that’s still a 25 percent chance to make it.
Highly unlikely the 5 seed is going to consistently draw better matchups than the 1 seed to make playing an extra game the better proposition
As long as 4 different conferences getting the top 4 are in place, it's definitely the most advantageous path to the Semi Finals, but the championship is obviously another story as once you get to the semi's it should be high tier talent. There are going to be a lot of years where seeds 5-8 (more even?) are better than 3 & 4.
The #5 seed this year is probably going to face Arizona State and either SMU or Clemson in the first two games. Those 2 games are potentially going to be easier than Oregon's first game, which could either Tennessee or Georgia. Texas's first game might be Ohio State, etc.
1-4 plays 1 less game, yes. But #5 is almost always going to have an easier path to the semi finals in terms of competition than any of the top 4. The Big 12/ACC better get real better real quick, or this is going to start looking silly every year.
The #5 seed this year is probably going to face Arizona State and either SMU or Clemson in the first two games. Those 2 games are potentially going to be easier than Oregon's first game, which could either Tennessee or Georgia. Texas's first game might be Ohio State, etc.
1-4 plays 1 less game, yes. But #5 is almost always going to have an easier path to the semi finals in terms of competition than any of the top 4. The Big 12/ACC better get real better real quick, or this is going to start looking silly every year.
You would have to be a significant favorite in the first two games for playing an extra game to actually be more advantageous
Playing an extra game isn't ideal, yes. I don't disagree with that.
But at the same time, what would you rather see? Notre Dame be #5 and play Arizona State (at home) and Boise State (or SMU/Clemson), or #4 and play Georgia, Ohio State, or Tennessee? Just trying to give multiple examples of teams.
The way it's currently setup works when you've got 4 conferences that have a top tier team as their champion. But when it's only 2 conferences, it just doesn't work. The ACC & Big 12 champions this year are just not on the same level as the SEC/B10, and the general logic at least is that's the way it's going to be consistently. So when you've got teams like SMU, BYU, Boise State, and Arizona State competing for 2 of those byes, you're fundamentally creating situations where yes even though the #5 and 6 seeds have to play one more game, it's not unreasonable to say their path is "easier" to the semi finals than the 1 and 2 (3 & 4 as well since again, 5 and 6 are better than they are) seeds that will have to play teams that will be considered better teams than those who got the 3 and 4 seeds.
The 5 and 6 seeds are going to be the betting favorites when 5 plays 4 and 6 plays 3 this year. Without question.
Last edited:
So youre question is regarding just the 5 through 12 seeds? If so then yeah the 5 seed is way better than any other seed
This is completely irrelevant to my point.
When the playoff starts 4 teams will only have to win 3 games. 8 will have to win 4.
Think of a coin flip. What is the probability of flipping heads 4 straight times. What’s the probability of flipping heads 3 straight times.
Obviously football games are not always 50/50. The 5 is only an advantage over a 1 depending on matchups. I expect most of the time the matchups would play out that a 1 seed is more advantageous than a 5 seed
In the 2nd round if we are a 5 seed, we may be playing Boise state. While the 1 seed Oregon may be playing Ohio State or Tenn. That is a big advantage to the 5 seed
you are correct that after actually earning that spot in the quarters Notre dame would have a better chance to advance. But entering the playoff it’s not necessarily an advantage. ND Would have to be better than like a -200 favorite in both matchups
ND can’t be seeded higher than # five under the current playoff structure so why bring in seeds 1 thru 4
Not if it Alabama is the 12th seed and BIG12, ACC, or G5 is 11th seed. Then I would believe the 6th seed would be ideal.
Last edited:
Because maybe you were wondering if Notre dame actually has an advantage by being the 5 over the 1…. It is theoretically possible
But they already had to win a playoff game in their Conference championship game to earn the bye. I believe the loser of the conference championship game that still makes the playoff has the most difficult path.
The teams that didn't play in a conference championship get 3 weeks off. The teams that won their conference championship game get 3 weeks off due to the bye. The teams that lost the conference championship game and still make the playoff only get 2 weeks off and will have to play an extra game to win it all.
Bama in 20 degree weather will be interesting to watch.
True, but from a talent perspective, rather ND gets a less talented Boise, ACC, or BIG12 team.
Texas and Georgia and Penn state and Oregon are all playing conference title games this weekend. If they lose they are not eliminated from the CFP. The only team with Even a slight chance of missing the playoff is Georgia and they are basically probably 99 percent to get In. The big 10 and SEC championship cannot be equated with a first round playoff game. Losing a first round playoff game means you’re done
If Oregon loses their conference title they aren’t eliminated from the CFP. If Notre dame loses their first round playoff game they are eliminated.
Surely you can see the difference. These are not the same
But if Clemson or SMU lose the ACC conference championship game they are done
If Iowa State or Arizona State lose their BIG12 conference championship game they are done. See the difference?
Last edited:
The big picture issue is the way the playoff is going to be this year, and the way it could be for the conceivable future considering the overall quality of conferences that aren't the SEC/B10, both the 3 and 4 seed are going to be the underdog in their quarterfinal game. That shouldn't be the case. 3 should be better than 6, and 5 and 4 should obviously be close but 4 should be the favorite.
It's very conceivable this year that both the 3/4 seed will be 7-10 point underdogs in the quarterfinal.
Look at these 2 brackets. Which one feels more like how it should be? (edited the 2nd as I meant to switch 2 around. But even if it was the original way I left it, the same thing would apply)
It's very conceivable this year that both the 3/4 seed will be 7-10 point underdogs in the quarterfinal.
Look at these 2 brackets. Which one feels more like how it should be? (edited the 2nd as I meant to switch 2 around. But even if it was the original way I left it, the same thing would apply)
Last edited:
This has been debated for months, but yes, it is. I’ve read so many metrics and calculations on this and it seems it clearly is the best spot since the committee doesn’t reseed after the first, second, or third rounds.
But ND will have had a longer bye than many of the team playing since they don’t have a conference championship game to play next week.
They’ll get an extra week of rest for the first round and have longer to prepare for their round one opponent.
Let’s say BSU is the 4th seed, they get ten days to prepare for ND. They can’t just plan for ND for the entire 3 weeks, there is the possibility ASU wins, ASU is a much different team offensively and defensively than ND.
I’m sorry but playing BSU vs OSU, UT, UGA, etc is a much better place to be.
Now if they reseeded after the first round, that could change things but they don’t as it is currently.
No, I wasn’t wondering anything, I was dealing with the reality of the current structure of the playoffs.
It’s not a theoretical possibility because the first four seats are automatically granted to conference champions, thus eliminating Notre Dame from seeds one through four
Each of the top four seeds have to play a conference championship game which evens out the number of games that ND would have to play.
The big picture issue is the way the playoff is going to be this year, and the way it could be for the conceivable future considering the overall quality of conferences that aren't the SEC/B10, both the 3 and 4 seed are going to be the underdog in their quarterfinal game. That shouldn't be the case. 3 should be better than 6, and 5 and 4 should obviously be close but 4 should be the favorite.
It's very conceivable this year that both the 3/4 seed will be 7-10 point underdogs in the quarterfinal.
Look at these 2 brackets. Which one feels more like how it should be? (edited the 2nd as I meant to switch 2 around. But even if it was the original way I left it, the same thing would apply)
yeah there’s quite a difference. Those teams aren’t as good and everyone knows they can’t get in if they lose
Nice work, thanks. 👍The big picture issue is the way the playoff is going to be this year, and the way it could be for the conceivable future considering the overall quality of conferences that aren't the SEC/B10, both the 3 and 4 seed are going to be the underdog in their quarterfinal game. That shouldn't be the case. 3 should be better than 6, and 5 and 4 should obviously be close but 4 should be the favorite.
It's very conceivable this year that both the 3/4 seed will be 7-10 point underdogs in the quarterfinal.
Look at these 2 brackets. Which one feels more like how it should be? (edited the 2nd as I meant to switch 2 around. But even if it was the original way I left it, the same thing would apply)
The conference champs are going to have 3 weeks between games. Where is this extra rest advantage vs the teams that are only playing 3 games
My point is, 50% of the P4 conference championship games will be play-in games. Which for those teams is the start of the playoffs. and if we add in the G5 conference championship games, 67% of the conference championship games are play-in games.
I think we’re getting a little off topic.
None of that is relevant to the question of the 5 seed being an advantage over the 1 seed.
