Saw this at the bottom of ticker on College GameDay. ND 62% to make playoffs as of today (Clemson is at 56%). No idea how this estimate is determined or if it can be determined with any sense of accuracy. But does this seem VERY LOW to anyone?
It implies ND has a 33% chance of making playoffs with loss to Clemson.** This cannot be right. Thoughts?
**Math for the calculation, if interested:
1. Odds of Clemson making the playoffs = 56% (according to ESPN). If you assume Clemson is in with a win and out with a loss, this is basically just saying Clemson has 56% chance to win the ACCCG.
2. Thus, ND has a 44% chance to win the ACC title - and would be in 100% of the time with a win.
3. For a weighted average of 62% today ..... 62% = (44% win ACCCG * 100% chance make CFP) + (56% loss in ACCCG * 33% chance to make CFP)
It implies ND has a 33% chance of making playoffs with loss to Clemson.** This cannot be right. Thoughts?
**Math for the calculation, if interested:
1. Odds of Clemson making the playoffs = 56% (according to ESPN). If you assume Clemson is in with a win and out with a loss, this is basically just saying Clemson has 56% chance to win the ACCCG.
2. Thus, ND has a 44% chance to win the ACC title - and would be in 100% of the time with a win.
3. For a weighted average of 62% today ..... 62% = (44% win ACCCG * 100% chance make CFP) + (56% loss in ACCCG * 33% chance to make CFP)
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