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AP Ranking Compilation for 5, 10, & 25 Years

Juniper_Run

Future coach
Sep 3, 2018
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Enumclaw, Washington
The final AP rankings are out, and I've updated my spreadsheet. For those who aren't familiar with this annual post, I give every team points based on a simple system of 25 for a first place finish, 24 for second, all the way down to 1 point for a 25th place finish. Here's how all the college football programs stack up if you add up the points for the past 5 years, 10 years, and 25 years:

Past 5 Years:

1. Alabama (112)
1. Ohio St. (112)
3. Georgia (110)
4. Clemson (97)
5. Notre Dame (82)
6. Oklahoma (77)
7. Michigan (66)
8. LSU (55)
9. Florida (52)
10. Cincinnati (47)
11. Penn St. (45)
12. Utah (40)
13. Oregon (36)
14. Baylor (34)
15. Texas A&M (32)
16. Washington (31)
17. Texas (26)
18. Iowa (25)
18. OK St. (25)
20. TCU (24)
21. BYU (22)
21. Kentucky (22)
23. Louisiana (21)
23. Northwestern (21)
25. Tennessee (20)


Past 10 Years:

1. Alabama (227)
2. Ohio St. (214)
3. Clemson (197)
4. Oklahoma (162)
5. Georgia (151)
6. Notre Dame (117)
7. LSU (98)
8. Michigan (96)
9. Michigan St. (92)
10. Florida St. (91)
11. Oregon (84)
12. TCU (83)
13. Penn St. (82)
14. Baylor (79)
15. Wisconsin (73)
16. USC (69)
17. Oklahoma St. (67)
18. Florida (65)
19. Washington (64)
20. Auburn (58)
20. Stanford (58)
22. Utah (57)
23. UCF (53)
24. Cincinnati (47)
25. Iowa (42)


Past 25 Years

1. Ohio St. (440)
2. Alabama (389)
3. Oklahoma (373)
4. Georgia (328)
5. LSU (286)
6. Florida (259)
7. USC (257)
8. Oregon (251)
9. Michigan (243)
10. Clemson (242)
11. Texas (239)
12. Florida St. (238)
13. Wisconsin (204)
14. Notre Dame (189)
15. TCU (186)
16. Penn St. (176)
16. Virginia Tech (176)
18. Auburn (167)
19. Miami (165)
20. Boise St. (156)
21. Michigan St. (140)
22. Tennessee (131)
23. Kansas St. (129)
24. Stanford (128)
25. Iowa (121)
 
The final AP rankings are out, and I've updated my spreadsheet. For those who aren't familiar with this annual post, I give every team points based on a simple system of 25 for a first place finish, 24 for second, all the way down to 1 point for a 25th place finish. Here's how all the college football programs stack up if you add up the points for the past 5 years, 10 years, and 25 years:

Past 5 Years:

1. Alabama (112)
1. Ohio St. (112)
3. Georgia (110)
4. Clemson (97)
5. Notre Dame (82)
6. Oklahoma (77)
7. Michigan (66)
8. LSU (55)
9. Florida (52)
10. Cincinnati (47)
11. Penn St. (45)
12. Utah (40)
13. Oregon (36)
14. Baylor (34)
15. Texas A&M (32)
16. Washington (31)
17. Texas (26)
18. Iowa (25)
18. OK St. (25)
20. TCU (24)
21. BYU (22)
21. Kentucky (22)
23. Louisiana (21)
23. Northwestern (21)
25. Tennessee (20)


Past 10 Years:

1. Alabama (227)
2. Ohio St. (214)
3. Clemson (197)
4. Oklahoma (162)
5. Georgia (151)
6. Notre Dame (117)
7. LSU (98)
8. Michigan (96)
9. Michigan St. (92)
10. Florida St. (91)
11. Oregon (84)
12. TCU (83)
13. Penn St. (82)
14. Baylor (79)
15. Wisconsin (73)
16. USC (69)
17. Oklahoma St. (67)
18. Florida (65)
19. Washington (64)
20. Auburn (58)
20. Stanford (58)
22. Utah (57)
23. UCF (53)
24. Cincinnati (47)
25. Iowa (42)


Past 25 Years

1. Ohio St. (440)
2. Alabama (389)
3. Oklahoma (373)
4. Georgia (328)
5. LSU (286)
6. Florida (259)
7. USC (257)
8. Oregon (251)
9. Michigan (243)
10. Clemson (242)
11. Texas (239)
12. Florida St. (238)
13. Wisconsin (204)
14. Notre Dame (189)
15. TCU (186)
16. Penn St. (176)
16. Virginia Tech (176)
18. Auburn (167)
19. Miami (165)
20. Boise St. (156)
21. Michigan St. (140)
22. Tennessee (131)
23. Kansas St. (129)
24. Stanford (128)
25. Iowa (121)
Thanks for taking the time to do this.

One interesting thing I saw---Nebraska, which won multiple NC's in the 1990's, does not appear at all.
 
Thanks for taking the time to do this.

One interesting thing I saw---Nebraska, which won multiple NC's in the 1990's, does not appear at all.
It's pretty astonishing, yes. Nebraska's success in the 70s, 80s, & 90s was very similar to Ohio State's success over the past 30 years. Their complete collapse since that time never stops surprising me.
 
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Quality work, puts things in perspective, not the least of which there was a time when USC looked like they’d never lose again and then they disappeared quickly after PC left
 
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Good work. About where I thought OU would be given the success under Bob Stoops and Riley. Lots of work to do to get back up there next year.
 
Quality work, puts things in perspective, not the least of which there was a time when USC looked like they’d never lose again and then they disappeared quickly after PC left
They were hit with heavy sanctions that completely took the wind out of their sale

And the AP is trash because the whole poll is based on win loss record at the exclusion of all else

With all of the trash Notre Dame has played in the ACC and with their key rivals being way down the last decade or so they were able to rack up a lot of cheap wins

When you add in quality of opponents and you adjust for luck Notre Dame has been more of a 15th ranked program on aggregate over the last 5/10/15 years and worse than that when you expand those years to 20/25
 
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They were hit with heavy sanctions that completely took the wind out of their sale

And the AP is trash because the whole poll is based on win loss record at the exclusion of all else

With all of the trash Notre Dame has played in the ACC and with their key rivals being way down the last decade or so they were able to rack up a lot of cheap wins

When you add in quality of opponents and you adjust for luck Notre Dame has been more of a 15th ranked program on aggregate over the last 5/10/15 years and worse than that when you expand those years to 20/25
The only thing that's trash is F+
 
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And the AP is trash because the whole poll is based on win loss record at the exclusion of all else

With all of the trash Notre Dame has played in the ACC and with their key rivals being way down the last decade or so they were able to rack up a lot of cheap wins

When you add in quality of opponents and you adjust for luck Notre Dame has been more of a 15th ranked program on aggregate over the last 5/10/15 years and worse than that when you expand those years to 20/25
This isn't true at all. We were ranked 11th after the 2017 season with a 10-3 record. We were ranked 12th after the 2019 season with an 11-2 record. Strength of schedule and blowout wins/losses both factored in heavily.

And on being a 15th ranked program over the past 5/10/15 years, please name the 14 programs that have been better. I can see a case for LSU and maybe FSU being better in the recent past based on their championships. Other than that the teams below us have more flaws than we do.
 
Notre Dame F+ ranking (a metric that adjusts for luck and for opponent quality; a system similar to what vegas uses to set their lines; a system that is scientifically objective with no human bias or brand favoritism; a system 1-half created by an ND alum lol) by year:

left side is the year, right side is NDs final F+ ranking:

(ND 2023 pre-season ranking will likely be around 10-15th -- one publication has them 12th -- which lines up with these numbers)

2022​
29​
2021​
9​
2020​
12​
2019​
14​
2018​
13​
2017​
10​
2016​
25​
2015​
7​
2014​
33​
2013​
30​
2012​
11​
2011​
17​
2010​
23​
2009​
34​
2008​
46​
2007​
78​

Good for these average rankings by 5/10/15 year splits (as far as the system goes back):
5 years
15.4​
10 years
18.2​
15 years
24.4​

Obviously nowhere near good enough. NDs 10+ win regular-seasons have been largely abated by NDs schedule: their rivals being way down and Notre Dame running roughshod over the dumpster fire that is the ACC
 
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It's funny how close these F+ rankings run paralel to NDs talent/recruiting class rankings over this time minus Freeman's first season.

I know a lot of this board is old school but the AP ranking is an antiquated trash system full of human bias and blind by W-L record which tells us nothing when there are 130 teams of massively varying quality playing massively varying quality of opponents over 12+ games.

If ND wants ANY realistic shot to win a national title ever again, these numbers, including their talent numbers, needs to get WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY better. We're not even close and haven't been in a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG time.
 
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Even if F+ were the perfect system (because the perfect system would definitely rank our 2016 squad as #25 in the country, right?), you're still missing a very basic concept: an average ranking of 15.4 does not mean that a team is the 15th best over a given time period.

Georgia offers a simple example. Their average F+ ranking in the past 3 years is 2.67. By your logic that means they are the 2nd/3rd best team of the past 3 years.
 
Even if F+ were the perfect system (because the perfect system would definitely rank our 2016 squad as #25 in the country, right?), you're still missing a very basic concept: an average ranking of 15.4 does not mean that a team is the 15th best over a given time period.

Georgia offers a simple example. Their average F+ ranking in the past 3 years is 2.67. By your logic that means they are the 2nd/3rd best team of the past 3 years.
Very fair point. Notre Dame has been really consistent between the years of 2015-2021 and that consistency would probably put them among the top 10 programs (back end) over that time period just from a raw consistency standpoint. It's really hard to finish between 10-15th every single season with little deviation. But what are you winning when you are the 10th-15th best team every year ? Nothing remarkable; and you're a massive underdog vs the teams at the top of this ranking system in the event you are forced to play them (playoff, championship, etc.) and then you predictably get ran over.
 
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Also wanted to point out regarding Georgia .. as long as you're in that elite group at the top, it's anybody's game when two equal-quality opponents clash during a single game (playoff game > national title game). The fact that Georgia has been a top 3 team on average over the last several years is what you would expect from a perennial national title contender (and even a favorite for the title depending on the quality of opponents in those final playoff games). As an example: you can win a national title as a program with an average ranking of 3 when your opponent is TCU who is ranked 8th

We're using Georgia as a hypothetical example for the 2022 season though because F+ has had Georgia a lock at #1 from the opening week of the 2022 season.
 
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How many times do we have to say that resume and power are different?

Bama could catch bad luck and go 6-6 and their power ranking would still be in the top 5.
 
One last point I wanted to add (at least for now): despite posting here for 15 years, and being proven right (on a number of issues) in the face of a heated ND fan base, I still have this reputation of being some irrational hater pulling crap out of my ass to trash Notre Dame.

The data is out there, clear as day, and when i see people making points that deviate from what the data shows, I point it out. It isn't to trash Notre Dame, it is to point out what is correct based on what the data shows. And I wouldn't want it any other way whether im the one being corrected or doing the correcting.
 
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It's funny how close these F+ rankings run paralel to NDs talent/recruiting class rankings over this time minus Freeman's first season.

I know a lot of this board is old school but the AP ranking is an antiquated trash system full of human bias and blind by W-L record which tells us nothing when there are 130 teams of massively varying quality playing massively varying quality of opponents over 12+ games.

If ND wants ANY realistic shot to win a national title ever again, these numbers, including their talent numbers, needs to get WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY better. We're not even close and haven't been in a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG time.
The AP's job was to determine who had the best season, not evaluate Vegas. And they ususally got it right.
 
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