Pre-season expectations vs current reality

[raycyrx]

My preseason prediction was 10-2.
My reasoning was there was just too much turnover/change (coaching and players) for a 2nd year head coach to expect much better than that.
Halfway through the season, it looks like 10-2 would be a great outcome.

Seems like a lot of social media and traditional media commentary is focusing on what has happened since end of OSU game.
I disagree, the first four games were very indicative of where we are and where we're headed.
While we did win those first four games by margins that should be expected of Notre Dame, there were also plenty of mistakes that needed to be cleaned up.
Poor tackling didn't just show up in the last few games.
Stupid penalties didn't just show up in the last few games.
All of these mistakes should have shown IMPROVEMENT through the first half of the season, but have not.

Coach Freeman's standard response has been, "We have to be/get better."
Yes, that much is obvious, but what is the change in plan to get better?
What has been done up to now is not working to make the improvements.
HOW are you going to get better needs to be the question asked.

So are we where you expected to be when you made your pre-season prediction?
Assess your pre-season mindset in the comments.

 

[Granite45]

Remember that there are many fewer full contact pratices during the seaaon these days so improvemnets may take longer.

 

[d1042]

Well, not going to go undefeated nor win the NC, So, that is a bit of a disappointment, but the season is not over.

 

[Chitown11]

Expected possible losses to the bucknuts and usc. Certainly not Louisville!

 

[sjb75]

Well, not going to go undefeated nor win the NC, So, that is a bit of a disappointment, but the season is not over.

No one with a sane mind predicted 12-0.

10-2, I will stick with that.

I sincerely believe Notre Dame can win Saturday night against USC. Will they? Who knows. Caleb Williams is that good.

 

[bizzybecknd]

Had ND at 9-3, 8-4 looking likely but this weekend will be a big one that sets the course for remainder of 23 and into 24. 10-2 would be huge and a NY day appearance but don’t see it happening. Teams appears to be regressing

 

[christophero]

If we beat USC that would drastically change the outlook.

 

[4-4-3]

My preseason prediction was 10-2.
My reasoning was there was just too much turnover/change (coaching and players) for a 2nd year head coach to expect much better than that.
Halfway through the season, it looks like 10-2 would be a great outcome.

Seems like a lot of social media and traditional media commentary is focusing on what has happened since end of OSU game.
I disagree, the first four games were very indicative of where we are and where we're headed.
While we did win those first four games by margins that should be expected of Notre Dame, there were also plenty of mistakes that needed to be cleaned up.
Poor tackling didn't just show up in the last few games.
Stupid penalties didn't just show up in the last few games.
All of these mistakes should have shown IMPROVEMENT through the first half of the season, but have not.

Coach Freeman's standard response has been, "We have to be/get better."
Yes, that much is obvious, but what is the change in plan to get better?
What has been done up to now is not working to make the improvements.
HOW are you going to get better needs to be the question asked.

So are we where you expected to be when you made your pre-season prediction?
Assess your pre-season mindset in the comments.

This, so far, is an entirely TYPICAL ND TEAM of the last 35 years. Better than some worse than others.

It's not a DOMINATING team in any way as NO ND TEAM over the last 35 years has BEEN BUILT TO BE ONE. ND gets the best players it can given its ETHOS, but not enough of the VERY BEST PLAYERS. That's usually the recpie for a 10-3 type program that occasionally pulls off a big win -- though more often merely PUTS UP A GOOD FIGHT: USC, 05; OSU, three weeks ago.

I don't see Freeman as ANY KIND OF GAME CHANGING COACH, either in terms of FOOTBALL IQ or RAW IQ. He's TEPIDLY OPTIMISTIC, communicates in PLATITUDES, looks lost or in his OWN PRIVATE IDAHO on the sidelines and is forced to rely FAR TOO MUCH on a HODGE-PODGE ASSEMBLAGE of assistant coaches.

The more I think of it, the more I wonder if Rees wasn't the one holding last year's team together. Given the choice, as I see it, between working for Freeman or Saban, is it any wonder Rees chose Saban?

One other note: COACHES DON'T REALLY CHANGE THAT MUCH OVER THE COURSE OF THEIR CAREERS. What you get is GENERALLY what you CONTINUE TO GET. I mean, did Brennan, Kuharich, Faust, Davie, Ty or Charlie EVER TURN THE CORNER? NO. Did Ara, Devine, Holtz or Kelly EVER LOSE THEIR MOJO? NO.

This idea that Freeman is somehow going to MOLT, flipping from neophyte caterpillar to BLUE AND GOLD BUTTERFLY seems to be at least PARTIALLY ROOTED in the LIFT-ALL-BOATS SOCIAL ETHIC OF THESE TIMES. Freeman is the kind of FEEL-GOOD STORY they air on, say, "THE VIEW." But as a football coach, he has yet to impress me.

Plus, I sense he's walking on EGG SHELLS.

Hey, I COULD BE WRONG! But, so far, this is playing out in a way that makes PERFECT SENSE to me.

 

[raycyrx]

So what were you pre-season predictions (and why) vs where we are at now?

 

[NDblitz]

My preseason prediction was 10-2.
My reasoning was there was just too much turnover/change (coaching and players) for a 2nd year head coach to expect much better than that.
Halfway through the season, it looks like 10-2 would be a great outcome.

Seems like a lot of social media and traditional media commentary is focusing on what has happened since end of OSU game.
I disagree, the first four games were very indicative of where we are and where we're headed.
While we did win those first four games by margins that should be expected of Notre Dame, there were also plenty of mistakes that needed to be cleaned up.
Poor tackling didn't just show up in the last few games.
Stupid penalties didn't just show up in the last few games.
All of these mistakes should have shown IMPROVEMENT through the first half of the season, but have not.

Coach Freeman's standard response has been, "We have to be/get better."
Yes, that much is obvious, but what is the change in plan to get better?
What has been done up to now is not working to make the improvements.
HOW are you going to get better needs to be the question asked.

So are we where you expected to be when you made your pre-season prediction?
Assess your pre-season mindset in the comments.

9-3. Mostly because the schedule is really hard. More the placement. But it could be worse. SC has to play 6 loseabIe games in a row. Not sold on the WR from the beginning. Too much inexperience. Really think they blew it not going after an elite portal WR. (the guy from vatech was not elite) thought the 4 game stretch would be tough. Saw 3-1 as a great result. 2-2 as probable. Then when Duke beat Clemson I figured Duke would be loss 2 not Louisville. I really believe SC is the weaker of the Big3. Because it's a home game. But they have the type of O that you can contain the whole game then they literally score 28 points off a few big plays. Figured Clemson regardless of record at their place would be tough.

 

[4-4-3]

So what were you pre-season predictions (and why) vs where we are at now?

I don't make SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS for anything for which I'm WOEFULLY SHORT OF DATA. And then, even if I'm up to speed or even ACTUALLY IN THE ROOM, I still don't think I can "BE CERTAIN."

What I WILL DO is an overall assessment at times as to trends, historical comparisons, unstressed factors and/or what I know about PSYCHOLOGY and how people behave in GROUPS:

So, why is ND where it is? My take:

1. Restricted talent pool due to institutional emphasis on ACADEMICS.
2. Restricted coaching talent pool due to 1.
3. LUKEWARM HOPE CONQUERS ALL mentality in hiring a head coach who's never been one.
4. A commitment to COMPETITIVENESS but NOT DOMINANCE.
5. NO NEGATIVE FINANCIAL IMPACT so far from 1 through 4.
6. No apparent concern over potential future NEGATIVE CASH FLOWS.
7. BRAND STATUS COMPLACENCY resulting from 5 and 6.
8. Somewhat DELUSIONAL self-assessment as still FIRST AMONG EQUALS, even though patently FALSE.
9. PERSISTENT OBSESSION with REMAINING INDEPENDENT that results from 8.
10. No compelling need to GO THE NECESSARY EXTRA YARD for reasons cited in 1 through 9.

By the way, if this is how ND ROLLS and WISHES TO ROLL, that's IT'S BUSINESS. But if the last 35 years have told us anything, THIS IS NOT A FORMULA FOR WINNING AN NC.

As I've stated before, you CAN'T BE HARVARD in the classroom and ALABAMA on the gridiron. Except, I guess, inside the head of ND KOOLAID JUNKIE.

Fortunately, for KOOLAID JUNKIES, change is still possible. I'm not so sure for ND.