HC-MF: Year 4 is an important one.

[chaseball]

I'm writing this post on my phone and using voice transcription so I apologize for lack of punctuation but I think the point will come through anyway

I think a lot of coaches have success with a previous regimes roster or culture or both but as the new coach gets further and further away from the old roster/system in place by the previous coach the new coach can start to show some cracks.

All of the data has been great and moving upwards in relation to Marcus Freeman's quality as a head coach (And I'm personally a big fan of the player development that he's been responsible for) so this isn't a criticism but maybe asking the community to tap the brake a little bit and be more cautiously optimistic than 100% convinced because MF still has a lot to prove

 

[Golson5]

I'm writing this post on my phone and using voice transcription so I apologize for lack of punctuation but I think the point will come through anyway

I think a lot of coaches have success with a previous regimes roster or culture or both but as the new coach gets further and further away from the old roster/system in place by the previous coach the new coach can start to show some cracks.

All of the data has been great and moving upwards in relation to Marcus Freeman's quality as a head coach (And I'm personally a big fan of the player development that he's been responsible for) so this isn't a criticism but maybe asking the community to tap the brake a little bit and be more cautiously optimistic than 100% convinced because MF still has a lot to prove

We got an upgrade

 

[BGI User 756]

I'm writing this post on my phone and using voice transcription so I apologize for lack of punctuation but I think the point will come through anyway

I think a lot of coaches have success with a previous regimes roster or culture or both but as the new coach gets further and further away from the old roster/system in place by the previous coach the new coach can start to show some cracks.

All of the data has been great and moving upwards in relation to Marcus Freeman's quality as a head coach (And I'm personally a big fan of the player development that he's been responsible for) so this isn't a criticism but maybe asking the community to tap the brake a little bit and be more cautiously optimistic than 100% convinced because MF still has a lot to prove

You hurdling today?

 

[raulduke_007]

I'm writing this post on my phone and using voice transcription so I apologize for lack of punctuation but I think the point will come through anyway

I think a lot of coaches have success with a previous regimes roster or culture or both but as the new coach gets further and further away from the old roster/system in place by the previous coach the new coach can start to show some cracks.

All of the data has been great and moving upwards in relation to Marcus Freeman's quality as a head coach (And I'm personally a big fan of the player development that he's been responsible for) so this isn't a criticism but maybe asking the community to tap the brake a little bit and be more cautiously optimistic than 100% convinced because MF still has a lot to prove

He already exceeded anything BK did in his 12 years. Won 2 Jan 6 bowl games Sugar and Orange. And made it to the title game in the playoff era. Won over critics and outside fans that had long/built in negative views of ND.

 

[NIN Irish]

He already exceeded anything BK did in his 12 years. Won 2 Jan 6 bowl games Sugar and Orange. And made it to the title game in the playoff era. Won over critics and outside fans that had long/built in negative views of ND.

Definitely, if it's BK in the playoffs last year, ND is out vs. Georgia. Good chance Georgia blows out ND with BK coaching. Thank goodness he's LSUs problem now.

 

[NDinNJ]

Definitely, if it's BK in the playoffs last year, ND is out vs. Georgia. Good chance Georgia blows out ND with BK coaching. Thank goodness he's LSUs problem now.

Get ready to get blasted by Savvy in 3, 2, 1....,. 😂🤣

 

[tbonesays]

He already exceeded anything BK did in his 12 years.

Meh

 

[chaseball]

Meh

ND just had their best season on record dating back to the start of the BK era. This past 2024 team was significantly better than BKs playoff/postseason teams:

Year: F+ rating (F+ ranking) - coach
2024: 1.93 (#4) - MF
2020: 1.34 (#9) - BK
2018: 1.40 (#10) - BK
2012: 1.39 (#12) - BK

Average F+ rating of national champion over last 5 years: 2.65 (massive gap between NDs final 2024 F+ rating of 1.93 and the average national champion final F+ rating of 2.65 over the last 5 years)

Year: FPI rating (FPI ranking) - coach
2024: 25.2 (#3) - MF
2020: 19.3 (#7) - BK
2018: 19.2 (#7) - BK
2012: 20.8 (#7) - BK

Average FPI rating of national champion over last 5 years: 30.4 (massive gap between NDs final 2024 FPI rating of 25.2 and the average national champion final FPI rating of 30.4 over the last 5 years)

ND also won a major bowl game TWICE in 2024 (something they hadn't been able to accomplish ONCE under BK)

So i empathize with the argument that "MF did more in one year than BK did in 12"

Big progress was made in 2024 .. the only question that remains: does the ND football program have that final gear in them needed to get over the hump/ seal the deal/win a national title? In my opinion, not unless they can make SIGNIFICANT in roads/progress -- wrestle away SIGNIFICANT HS-talent marketshare from the tier 1 -- on the recruiting trail.

BCF Toys - 2024 F+ Ratings

www.bcftoys.com

 

[chaseball]

Partly true IMO

ND just had their best season on record dating back to the start of the BK era. This past 2024 team was significantly better than BKs playoff/postseason teams:

Year: F+ rating (F+ ranking) - coach
2024: 1.93 (#4) - MF
2020: 1.34 (#9) - BK
2018: 1.40 (#10) - BK
2012: 1.39 (#12) - BK

Average F+ rating of national champion over last 5 years: 2.65 (massive gap between NDs 2024 season and average national champion over the last 5 years)

Year: FPI rating (FPI ranking) - coach
2024: 25.2 (#3) - MF
2020: 19.3 (#7) - BK
2018: 19.2 (#7) - BK
2012: 20.8 (#7) - BK

Average FPI rating of national champion over last 5 years: 30.4 (massive gap between NDs 2024 season and average national champion over the last 5 years)

ND also won a major bowl game TWICE in 2024 (something they hadn't been able to accomplish ONCE under BK)

So i empathize with the argument that "MF did more in one year than BK did in 12"

Big progress was made in 2024 .. the only question that remains: does the ND football program have that final gear in them needed to get over the hump/ seal the deal/win a national title? In my opinion, not unless they can make SIGNIFICANT in roads/progress -- wrestle away SIGNIFICANT HS-talent marketshare from the tier 1 -- on the recruiting trail.

btw: after pulling this data together (in the quoted post) and looking at things from this perspective I think MF is more fail-proof than what I was originally giving him credit for in the original post in this topic. MF isn't merely treading water with the numbers he produced last year (e.g. keeping BKs success a float) he took the program to its greatest heights in decades with below-average injury luck to boot.

 

[savvyandsassier]

Partly true IMO

ND just had their best season on record dating back to the start of the BK era. This past 2024 team was significantly better than BKs playoff/postseason teams:

Year: F+ rating (F+ ranking) - coach
2024: 1.93 (#4) - MF
2020: 1.34 (#9) - BK
2018: 1.40 (#10) - BK
2012: 1.39 (#12) - BK

Average F+ rating of national champion over last 5 years: 2.65 (massive gap between NDs 2024 season and average national champion over the last 5 years)

Year: FPI rating (FPI ranking) - coach
2024: 25.2 (#3) - MF
2020: 19.3 (#7) - BK
2018: 19.2 (#7) - BK
2012: 20.8 (#7) - BK

Average FPI rating of national champion over last 5 years: 30.4 (massive gap between NDs 2024 season and average national champion over the last 5 years)

ND also won a major bowl game TWICE in 2024 (something they hadn't been able to accomplish ONCE under BK)

So i empathize with the argument that "MF did more in one year than BK did in 12"

Big progress was made in 2024 .. the only question that remains: does the ND football program have that final gear in them needed to get over the hump/ seal the deal/win a national title? In my opinion, not unless they can make SIGNIFICANT in roads/progress -- wrestle away SIGNIFICANT HS-talent marketshare from the tier 1 -- on the recruiting trail.

ND did not win any bowl games this year, just to remind you. They made it to the playoff final, the fourth and final round of the four round playoff. For shits and giggles that's fine if you want to indulge that. Yay! ND two NY6 bowls in the same season, what a thrill! And what an accomplishment too, I didn't think that was even possible, but MF just did it!

But if you're actually including that in some kind of mathematical formula, then that would be effed up. It would certainly detract from the merit of whatever formula you're fiddling with. I guess you're not, you're just sort of mentioning it, perhaps to goad me into responding.

 

[chaseball]

ND did not win any bowl games this year, just to remind you. They made it to the playoff final, the fourth and final round of the four round playoff. For shits and giggles that's fine if you want to indulge that. Yay! ND two NY6 bowls in the same season, what a thrill! And what an accomplishment too, I didn't think that was even possible, but MF just did it!

But if you're actually including that in some kind of mathematical formula, then that would be effed up. It would certainly detract from the merit of whatever formula you're fiddling with. I guess you're not, you're just sort of mentioning it, perhaps to goad me into responding.

I thought ND was officially credited with a Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl victory for the 2024 season ? 🤷‍♂️

It isn't being used in a formula of any kind but using the "major bowl game victory" as a tangible material achievement when comparing the careers of BK & MF at ND.

 

[savvyandsassier]

I thought ND was officially credited with a Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl victory for the 2024 season ? 🤷‍♂️

It isn't being used in a formula of any kind but using the "major bowl game victory" as a tangible material achievement when comparing the careers of BK & MF at ND.

It wouldn't be an achievement. The achievement would getting to the final in a four round playoff, obviously. Which was fantastic. Kudos to MF, big kudos. But not winning two NY6 bowl games in the same year, when they don't really exist anymore other than in the imagination of the playoff committee. That would be fantastical. And it would be apples to oranges in event. You wouldn't compare a 2nd round playoff win, with an actual bowl game result from a previous NY6 bowl era. That would just be like, a category error, I think they call it that.

 

[tbonesays]

ND just had their best season on record dating back to the start of the BK era. This past 2024 team was significantly better than BKs playoff/postseason teams:

Year: F+ rating (F+ ranking) - coach
2024: 1.93 (#4) - MF
2020: 1.34 (#9) - BK
2018: 1.40 (#10) - BK
2012: 1.39 (#12) - BK

Average F+ rating of national champion over last 5 years: 2.65 (massive gap between NDs final 2024 F+ rating of 1.93 and the average national champion final F+ rating of 2.65 over the last 5 years)

Year: FPI rating (FPI ranking) - coach
2024: 25.2 (#3) - MF
2020: 19.3 (#7) - BK
2018: 19.2 (#7) - BK
2012: 20.8 (#7) - BK

Average FPI rating of national champion over last 5 years: 30.4 (massive gap between NDs final 2024 FPI rating of 25.2 and the average national champion final FPI rating of 30.4 over the last 5 years)

ND also won a major bowl game TWICE in 2024 (something they hadn't been able to accomplish ONCE under BK)

So i empathize with the argument that "MF did more in one year than BK did in 12"

Big progress was made in 2024 .. the only question that remains: does the ND football program have that final gear in them needed to get over the hump/ seal the deal/win a national title? In my opinion, not unless they can make SIGNIFICANT in roads/progress -- wrestle away SIGNIFICANT HS-talent marketshare from the tier 1 -- on the recruiting trail.

BCF Toys - 2024 F+ Ratings

www.bcftoys.com

2024 had more games so more opportunity to gain yards against highly ranked teams. BK 2.0 would not have lost to Northern Illinois which is a DQ for most of the history of the sport.

 

[Golson5]

2024 had more games so more opportunity to gain yards against highly ranked teams. BK 2.0 would not have lost to Northern Illinois which is a DQ for most of the history of the sport.

BK lost to navy like 3x, Tulsa, usf and Northwestern

 

[chaseball]

2024 had more games so more opportunity to gain yards against highly ranked teams. BK 2.0 would not have lost to Northern Illinois which is a DQ for most of the history of the sport.

The larger the sample size the more accurate the F+ system is on reading the quality of your team.

you don't get a higher F+ rating simply for accruing more yards against highly ranked teams or by default of playing more games.

 

[NIN Irish]

2024 had more games so more opportunity to gain yards against highly ranked teams. BK 2.0 would not have lost to Northern Illinois which is a DQ for most of the history of the sport.

But BK would have lost to A&M, probably blown out.

 

[BGI User 1596]

BK lost to navy like 3x, Tulsa, usf and Northwestern

He does hold the record for most losses by a ND coach.

 

[IrishHerb]

I think a lot of coaches have success with a previous regimes roster or culture or both but as the new coach gets further and further away from the old roster/system in place by the previous coach the new coach can start to show some cracks

With this one, Charlie Weis comes to mind. He did well with Willingham's boys, then started to falter in year 3.

 

[NDinNJ]

With this one, Charlie Weis comes to mind. He did well with Willingham's boys, then started to falter in year 3.

Honestly, the reason he faltered in year 3 was due to Willingham's poor recruiting. Ty Willingham was fired in year 3 due to the lack of recruiting. Weis was forced to play a lot of true freshman and sophomores in 2007. I gave Weis a pass that year, but in the end he disappointed and wasn't the answer either.

 

[BGI User 1596]

Honestly, the reason he faltered in year 3 was due to Willingham's poor recruiting. Ty Willingham was fired in year 3 due to the lack of recruiting. Weis was forced to play a lot of true freshman and sophomores in 2007. I gave Weis a pass that year, but in the end he disappointed and wasn't the answer either.

Charlie s waistline was the only thing legitimate about him.

 

[tbonesays]

BK lost to navy like 3x, Tulsa, usf and Northwestern

The larger the sample size the more accurate the F+ system is on reading the quality of your team.

you don't get a higher F+ rating simply for accruing more yards against highly ranked teams or by default of playing more games.

Actually yes you do. That's a major piece of the formula. A team with three or more games against the top 10 has a much greater opportunity than one with just one bowl game.

But BK would have lost to A&M, probably blown out.

Doubtful, their offense was kind of inept. I'll give you that BK likely loses the Sugar Bowl.

 

[chaseball]

Actually yes you do. That's a major piece of the formula. A team with three or more games against the top 10 has a much greater opportunity than one with just one bowl game.

lol @ the absurdity of challenging me on the F+ system. After the authors of the system, I may be the most knowledgeable person on the planet of how it works. But I digress.

ND had a 1.90ish F+ after beating indiana in one sided fashion (a team F+ really respected). Then ND proceeded to play 3 more playofff games against top 10 teams and their F+ didn't budge. F+ (and even Vegas) had OSU winning in dominant fashion and that is exactly what happened.

F+ provides an apples to apples comparison of teams based on their production in their respective season regardless of the quality of teams they played or how many games they played in their season. More games just means more data with which to more accurately gauge a quality of team.

MF took ND to a level BK could never get to after 10+ years of trying. Moreover, MF bested BKs best season in 2023 (last year) .. 2024 was another step forward.

I am a pretty big BK fan but after MFs last two seasons, I don't think there's a coach in college football i'd rather have right now given MFs youth and production so far with only 3 years of experience.

For the love of God, the recruiting has GOT TO GET BETTER though.

 

[stu4don]

Honestly, the reason he faltered in year 3 was due to Willingham's poor recruiting. Ty Willingham was fired in year 3 due to the lack of recruiting. Weis was forced to play a lot of true freshman and sophomores in 2007. I gave Weis a pass that year, but in the end he disappointed and wasn't the answer either.

And the fact he is a terrible head coach. 41-49 as a college head coach, no excuses, Charlie was not a good head coach. Continued the downward trend of our program (started in the late Holtz years), CW wasted top talent, terrible at developing talent, and didn't recruit across the board. Nightmare years. Kelly turned it around and Marcus is going to take us to the mountaintop, nearly did it last year with less talent than a lot of teams out there.

 

[Golson5]

lol @ the absurdity of challenging me on the F+ system. After the authors of the system, I may be the most knowledgeable person on the planet of how it works. But I digress.

ND had a 1.90ish F+ after beating indiana in one sided fashion (a team F+ really respected). Then ND proceeded to play 3 more playofff games against top 10 teams and their F+ didn't budge. F+ (and even Vegas) had OSU winning in dominant fashion and that is exactly what happened.

F+ provides an apples to apples comparison of teams based on their production in their respective season regardless of the quality of teams they played or how many games they played in their season. More games just means more data with which to more accurately gauge a quality of team.

MF took ND to a level BK could never get to after 10+ years of trying. Moreover, MF bested BKs best season in 2023 (last year) .. 2024 was another step forward.

I am a pretty big BK fan but after MFs last two seasons, I don't think there's a coach in college football i'd rather have right now given MFs youth and production so far with only 3 years of experience.

For the love of God, the recruiting has GOT TO GET BETTER though.

It already has and continues to do so

 

[Golson5]

And the fact he is a terrible head coach. 41-49 as a college head coach, no excuses, Charlie was not a good head coach. Continued the downward trend of our program (started in the late Holtz years), CW wasted top talent, terrible at developing talent, and didn't recruit across the board. Nightmare years. Kelly turned it around and Marcus is going to take us to the mountaintop, nearly did it last year with less talent than a lot of teams out there.

Not a lot of teams out there. Maybe a handful

 

[IrishHerb]

Honestly, the reason he faltered in year 3 was due to Willingham's poor recruiting. Ty Willingham was fired in year 3 due to the lack of recruiting. Weis was forced to play a lot of true freshman and sophomores in 2007. I gave Weis a pass that year, but in the end he disappointed and wasn't the answer either.

Willingham did a lousy job recruiting, I can agree with that. But he or at least his assistants did an acceptable job developing the players they had in the fundamentals. These are the guys Weis succeeded with. My take on Weis is that he spent too long in the NFL, where with a few exceptions (Lombardi for example) teaching and practicing fundamentals comes in behind schemes. So for Charlie's first 2 years he had enough guys who were fundamentally strong and could make his schemes work. But once they were gone, then the rest of the guys were underdeveloped. Also Weis, like Kelly, was more an offense guy and never developed real stout defenses.

 

[iLOVEtohurdle41]

lol @ the absurdity of challenging me on the F+ system. After the authors of the system, I may be the most knowledgeable person on the planet of how it works. But I digress.

ND had a 1.90ish F+ after beating indiana in one sided fashion (a team F+ really respected). Then ND proceeded to play 3 more playofff games against top 10 teams and their F+ didn't budge. F+ (and even Vegas) had OSU winning in dominant fashion and that is exactly what happened.

F+ provides an apples to apples comparison of teams based on their production in their respective season regardless of the quality of teams they played or how many games they played in their season. More games just means more data with which to more accurately gauge a quality of team.

MF took ND to a level BK could never get to after 10+ years of trying. Moreover, MF bested BKs best season in 2023 (last year) .. 2024 was another step forward.

I am a pretty big BK fan but after MFs last two seasons, I don't think there's a coach in college football i'd rather have right now given MFs youth and production so far with only 3 years of experience.

For the love of God, the recruiting has GOT TO GET BETTER though.

ND is going to be getting a 5 star edge and top 100 RB over michigan next week ( hopefully) this will start giving irish recruiting momentum that we need.

 

[OolaBox]

Update Please

 

[buckey]

lol @ the absurdity of challenging me on the F+ system. After the authors of the system, I may be the most knowledgeable person on the planet of how it works. But I digress.

ND had a 1.90ish F+ after beating indiana in one sided fashion (a team F+ really respected). Then ND proceeded to play 3 more playofff games against top 10 teams and their F+ didn't budge. F+ (and even Vegas) had OSU winning in dominant fashion and that is exactly what happened.

F+ provides an apples to apples comparison of teams based on their production in their respective season regardless of the quality of teams they played or how many games they played in their season. More games just means more data with which to more accurately gauge a quality of team.

MF took ND to a level BK could never get to after 10+ years of trying. Moreover, MF bested BKs best season in 2023 (last year) .. 2024 was another step forward.

I am a pretty big BK fan but after MFs last two seasons, I don't think there's a coach in college football i'd rather have right now given MFs youth and production so far with only 3 years of experience.

For the love of God, the recruiting has GOT TO GET BETTER though.

As long as we are an academic institution focused on student athletes, it won’t change. So get over it and save us all your redundant posts

 

[hoopsstar12]

We need to add another top D lineman or LB who can get to the QB or stuff the run in the portal. Between the ND turf and extended season we need a high quality insurance policy. Long season and a tough schedule we need 1 more big name in the front defensive 7. I'm not 100% sold on the new guys or the guys returning from injury. Plus a new DC who is unproven here.

 

[Golson5]

We need to add another top D lineman or LB who can get to the QB or stuff the run in the portal. Between the ND turf and extended season we need a high quality insurance policy. Long season and a tough schedule we need 1 more big name in the front defensive 7. I'm not 100% sold on the new guys or the guys returning from injury. Plus a new DC who is unproven here.

We definitely don't need another LB, that might be our best/deepest position on the team. Don't think we need another DL as well. We are very deep on the DL. If there is a stud, take him but that's not going to be available at this point.

Our front 7 is loaded right now

 

[futuredomer]

LB has the potential to be as good as any LB unit in the country barring injury🍀

 

[hoopsstar12]

We definitely don't need another LB, that might be our best/deepest position on the team. Don't think we need another DL as well. We are very deep on the DL. If there is a stud, take him but that's not going to be available at this point.

Our front 7 is loaded right now

Some of the schools have really upgraded thru the portal. I feel 1 more good prospect on the D line gives us some insurance and makes a few big plays each game. The guys who transferred in remains to be seen.