FYI. A good informational piece on the playoffs.
From the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday. Clemson predicted to beat ND in the rematch and Alabama, the eventual champion, over Ohio State.
Each week, Cade Massey, from the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School, and Rufus Peabody, a Las Vegas sports analyst, rank college football teams based off a mathematical model that takes only on-field performance into account. In other words, the model is purely objective and ignores outside factors like personnel, coaching and motivation. The model uses four statistics to evaluate offenses and defenses—rushing, passing, scoring and how effectively the ball is advanced relative to down and distance.
Most importantly, wins and losses may decide which four teams go to the College-Football Playoff, but it doesn’t carry any weight in this model. Based on the latest College-Football Playoff rankings, this is how the Massey-Peabody model sees the matchups as they stand today, which would pit No. 1 Clemson against No. 4 Notre Dame and No. 2 Alabama against No. 3 Ohio State and the winners facing off in the national championship game.
Semifinal: Clemson vs. Notre Dame
Projected Result: Clemson by 3.8
The Tigers are the consensus No. 1 team in the country by the College Football Playoff committee and the polls. There’s no reason to think that will change before the end of the regular season as they finish their schedule with Wake Forest and South Carolina, two 3-7 teams. But for the Tigers to hold on to that No. 1 ranking, they may have to win more handily than they did on Saturday against Syracuse, when the Orange were within one score in the fourth quarter. Remaining at No. 1 may prove vital for Clemson, which the model predicts would be underdogs against both Alabama and Ohio State. The Fighting Irish, meanwhile, remained at No. 4 in the rankings after an easy win against Wake Forest. They’ll need to close their season with strong wins against Boston College and No. 11 Stanford in order to hold off potential runs from Iowa (10-0) in the Big Ten and Oklahoma State (10-0) in the Big 12.
Before these teams met in Week 5, Las Vegas made Clemson a three-point favorite but Massey-Peabody viewed that game as a virtual coin-flip (ND by .5 points). The game turned out to be a near coin-flip as the Fighting Irish had a two-point try with seven seconds left to tie the game, but the Clemson defense came up with the stop to secure a 24-22 victory at home.
Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson drops back to pass against Notre Dame on Oct. 3.
Associated Press
Semifinal: Alabama (-4.1) vs. Ohio State
Projected Result: Alabama by 4.1
The committee likes the Crimson Tide more than the polls, placing them at No. 2, while the AP and Coaches’ polls have them at No. 3. Massey-Peabody’s model is even more bullish, saying Nick Saban’s team is the best team in the country, and it’s not even close. At this point, it’s tough to imagine Alabama coughing up its grip of the No. 2 spot in the regular season as they finish up with a cupcake game against an FCS opponent, Charleston Southern, and then an Auburn team that has gone just 2-5 in the SEC. Ohio State on the other hand may have the toughest final two regular season games in the country against No. 9 Michigan State then No. 12 Michigan. Then they face a potential Big Ten title game against No. 5 Iowa. When the dust settles after that, Urban Meyer’s team may just be hoping to play someone other than Alabama in the first round of the playoff: the model says Ohio State is the second best team in the country and would be favored against anybody else.
Final: Alabama vs. Clemson
Projected Result: Alabama by 9.3
The Tigers may be the No. 1 team in the country, but Massey-Peabody’s model sets Alabama as big favorites in this theoretical title game. That means it likes Alabama’s defense to swallow up Clemson’s attack, which ranks in the top-30 nationally in passing yards per game (279.3, 26th), rushing yards per game (217, 22nd) and points per game (38.0, 15th). But they haven’t faced a defense quite like the Crimson Tide’s, which ranks seventh in the country, allowing only 15.3 points per game, while the offense is able to control possession with a ground game that averages 199.3 yards per contest. Junior running back Derrick Henry leads that effort with 1,458 yards, the second most nationally, and 19 rushing touchdowns, the most in the nation.
http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2015/...ball-playoff-were-today-the-winner-would-be/#
From the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday. Clemson predicted to beat ND in the rematch and Alabama, the eventual champion, over Ohio State.
Each week, Cade Massey, from the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School, and Rufus Peabody, a Las Vegas sports analyst, rank college football teams based off a mathematical model that takes only on-field performance into account. In other words, the model is purely objective and ignores outside factors like personnel, coaching and motivation. The model uses four statistics to evaluate offenses and defenses—rushing, passing, scoring and how effectively the ball is advanced relative to down and distance.
Most importantly, wins and losses may decide which four teams go to the College-Football Playoff, but it doesn’t carry any weight in this model. Based on the latest College-Football Playoff rankings, this is how the Massey-Peabody model sees the matchups as they stand today, which would pit No. 1 Clemson against No. 4 Notre Dame and No. 2 Alabama against No. 3 Ohio State and the winners facing off in the national championship game.
Semifinal: Clemson vs. Notre Dame
Projected Result: Clemson by 3.8
The Tigers are the consensus No. 1 team in the country by the College Football Playoff committee and the polls. There’s no reason to think that will change before the end of the regular season as they finish their schedule with Wake Forest and South Carolina, two 3-7 teams. But for the Tigers to hold on to that No. 1 ranking, they may have to win more handily than they did on Saturday against Syracuse, when the Orange were within one score in the fourth quarter. Remaining at No. 1 may prove vital for Clemson, which the model predicts would be underdogs against both Alabama and Ohio State. The Fighting Irish, meanwhile, remained at No. 4 in the rankings after an easy win against Wake Forest. They’ll need to close their season with strong wins against Boston College and No. 11 Stanford in order to hold off potential runs from Iowa (10-0) in the Big Ten and Oklahoma State (10-0) in the Big 12.
Before these teams met in Week 5, Las Vegas made Clemson a three-point favorite but Massey-Peabody viewed that game as a virtual coin-flip (ND by .5 points). The game turned out to be a near coin-flip as the Fighting Irish had a two-point try with seven seconds left to tie the game, but the Clemson defense came up with the stop to secure a 24-22 victory at home.
Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson drops back to pass against Notre Dame on Oct. 3.
Associated Press
Semifinal: Alabama (-4.1) vs. Ohio State
Projected Result: Alabama by 4.1
The committee likes the Crimson Tide more than the polls, placing them at No. 2, while the AP and Coaches’ polls have them at No. 3. Massey-Peabody’s model is even more bullish, saying Nick Saban’s team is the best team in the country, and it’s not even close. At this point, it’s tough to imagine Alabama coughing up its grip of the No. 2 spot in the regular season as they finish up with a cupcake game against an FCS opponent, Charleston Southern, and then an Auburn team that has gone just 2-5 in the SEC. Ohio State on the other hand may have the toughest final two regular season games in the country against No. 9 Michigan State then No. 12 Michigan. Then they face a potential Big Ten title game against No. 5 Iowa. When the dust settles after that, Urban Meyer’s team may just be hoping to play someone other than Alabama in the first round of the playoff: the model says Ohio State is the second best team in the country and would be favored against anybody else.
Final: Alabama vs. Clemson
Projected Result: Alabama by 9.3
The Tigers may be the No. 1 team in the country, but Massey-Peabody’s model sets Alabama as big favorites in this theoretical title game. That means it likes Alabama’s defense to swallow up Clemson’s attack, which ranks in the top-30 nationally in passing yards per game (279.3, 26th), rushing yards per game (217, 22nd) and points per game (38.0, 15th). But they haven’t faced a defense quite like the Crimson Tide’s, which ranks seventh in the country, allowing only 15.3 points per game, while the offense is able to control possession with a ground game that averages 199.3 yards per contest. Junior running back Derrick Henry leads that effort with 1,458 yards, the second most nationally, and 19 rushing touchdowns, the most in the nation.
http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2015/...ball-playoff-were-today-the-winner-would-be/#
