I am looking at the first Top 25 that was released tonight and how we stack up the rest of the way. Coming in 3rd was absolutely huge. If ND wins out and plays to the level they have been, they will almost guarantee themselves as a Top 4 team. But for me, it goes beyond that. While I am happily admitting (and have since we destroyed USC) that I was completely wrong about Kelly being able to turn this around, I still don't think this team can win a national championship. That is having to win two games in a row against the likes of Georgia, Alabama, Clemson or Ohio State. I don't believe the defense is deep enough or talented enough nor do I think Wimbush is advanced enough to beat these teams in back to back weeks. This is not meant to take anything away from what this team has accomplished thus far. But I am trying to be as realistic as possible.
I think the biggest thing is looking at the next few weeks and seeing how things can shake out. There are some great games coming up that can really swing things in a lot of different directions. Let's look at this weeks slate of games.
#1 Georgia vs South Carolina
#2 Alabama vs #19 LSU
#3 Notre Dame vs Wake Forest
#4 Clemson @ #20 NC State
#5 Oklahoma @ #11 Oklahoma State
#6 Ohio State @ Iowa
#7 Penn State @ #24 Michigan State
#8 TCU vs Texas
#9 Wisconsin @ Indiana
#10 Miami (FL) vs #13 Virginia Tech
#11 Oklahoma State vs #5 Oklahoma
#12 Washington vs Oregon
#14 Auburn @ Texas A&M
There are some great games this week with the potential for some serious upsets. I included the Top 14 in this discussion because I truly believe that Auburn can play themselves into the Top 4 by the end of the season. They still play Georgia and Alabama (at home) and if they win, they would have a rematch with Georgia in the SEC Championship game. They would almost undoubtedly make it into the Top 4 if they were able to pull that off.
I really don't see Georgia or Alabama losing this week. I am of the mindset that I want Georgia to lose a game or two before the SEC Championship. While it diminishes our one loss, it is much more important that Michigan State, USC, NC State, Miami (FL) and Stanford keep winning. I'll go into this a bit more later.
I think Notre Dame crushes Wake this weekend. I know they're a lot better than people think they are. But guess what? We're a legitimate Top 4 team this year. And we're going to kick their ass up and down the field.
I think this Clemson-NC State game is freaking HUGE. Not only would it knock Clemson out of the playoff hunt (eliminating one of the four teams I don't think we have a good chance of beating), it all but guarantees NC State a trip the ACC Championship game. NC State has Boston College, Wake Forest and North Carolina to end the season. Because Clemson's two losses would be in ACC play and NC State's being both out of conference (South Carolina and Notre Dame), they would only have to finish 1-2 the rest of the way and still make the title game. For the record, I think they win the last three and finish 10-2 and on top of the Atlantic Division with the hopes of playing Miami (FL) in the ACC title game (more on that in a minute).
Oklahoma and Oklahoma State is a tough one for me. I am leaning towards wanting Oklahoma to win. Here me out! I understand they have a great win over Ohio State. But I would rather them win now and take out Oklahoma State from contention. Oklahoma still has to play TCU and West Virginia (and the Big 12 Championship if they win those games). Oklahoma State goes to Iowa State and has Kansas State at home. I'm more confident in Oklahoma losing to TCU or West Virginia than I am Oklahoma State losing to Iowa State or Kansas State.
Unfortunately, I don't see Ohio State losing the rest of the way. But they're at Iowa and Iowa took them to the bitter end. Ohio State going down in a stunner would be amazing. Both because, F*CK URBAN MEYER, and it almost eliminates them from playoff contention.
Everyone say a prayer that Michigan State upsets Penn State this week. I highly, HIGHLY doubt it happens. But this would be huge for our SOS and ensures that Michigan State stays in the Top 25 (even if they lose to Ohio State the following week). I don't care how much you hate the Spartans, get out your green and white pompoms this Saturday at 12pm EST!
I think TCU goes down this weekend. I know they just lost last week but I think Tom Herman is bound to win one of these close games against a good opponent. I think Texas's defense is good enough to make Kenny Hill look like dog poop for the second straight week. Another Big 12 team out of the race would be stellar.
I really want Wisconsin to win out because I personally believe that we would beat them by 20+ points. They are not very good. And getting matched up with them in the playoffs would be a gift from Ara. It's great for us if they go undefeated and knock out Ohio State because I don't think they jump us even if they go undefeated.
Another huge game with the Miami (FL)-Virginia Tech matchup. For the past few weeks I have been of the opinion that Virginia Tech was going to wipe the floor with the Hurricanes. But I went back and looked at who they've beat. They got by a decent West Virginia team in week one. But since than, they've beat Delaware, East Carolina, Old Dominion, Boston College, UNC and Duke. And looked awful against Clemson. I think Miami (FL) has a solid chance to beat them. And it would be absolutely huge for them to do so. They would almost undoubtedly move 3-4 spots in the polls for the 11/11 match up against Notre Dame. A perfect stage for Josh Adams to run all over the Convicts.
Washington still scares me a bit. I think they could somehow sneak past us at the end of the year if they finish 12-1 and win the Pac-12 Championship. I don't think it's likely, but it could happen. We really need Stanford to beat them next weekend.
I mentioned Auburn earlier. I could care less if they win or lose this weekend. But like I mentioned before, I will be going crazy for them to upset both Georgia and Alabama in the next few weeks.
Obviously a lot of this is fluid, but there are some huge games this weekend with a lot of implications for the rest of the season. Let's hope we get out of this week with no injuries and a convincing W. Added in with some major upsets that helps us along the way.
I think the biggest thing is looking at the next few weeks and seeing how things can shake out. There are some great games coming up that can really swing things in a lot of different directions. Let's look at this weeks slate of games.
#1 Georgia vs South Carolina
#2 Alabama vs #19 LSU
#3 Notre Dame vs Wake Forest
#4 Clemson @ #20 NC State
#5 Oklahoma @ #11 Oklahoma State
#6 Ohio State @ Iowa
#7 Penn State @ #24 Michigan State
#8 TCU vs Texas
#9 Wisconsin @ Indiana
#10 Miami (FL) vs #13 Virginia Tech
#11 Oklahoma State vs #5 Oklahoma
#12 Washington vs Oregon
#14 Auburn @ Texas A&M
There are some great games this week with the potential for some serious upsets. I included the Top 14 in this discussion because I truly believe that Auburn can play themselves into the Top 4 by the end of the season. They still play Georgia and Alabama (at home) and if they win, they would have a rematch with Georgia in the SEC Championship game. They would almost undoubtedly make it into the Top 4 if they were able to pull that off.
I really don't see Georgia or Alabama losing this week. I am of the mindset that I want Georgia to lose a game or two before the SEC Championship. While it diminishes our one loss, it is much more important that Michigan State, USC, NC State, Miami (FL) and Stanford keep winning. I'll go into this a bit more later.
I think Notre Dame crushes Wake this weekend. I know they're a lot better than people think they are. But guess what? We're a legitimate Top 4 team this year. And we're going to kick their ass up and down the field.
I think this Clemson-NC State game is freaking HUGE. Not only would it knock Clemson out of the playoff hunt (eliminating one of the four teams I don't think we have a good chance of beating), it all but guarantees NC State a trip the ACC Championship game. NC State has Boston College, Wake Forest and North Carolina to end the season. Because Clemson's two losses would be in ACC play and NC State's being both out of conference (South Carolina and Notre Dame), they would only have to finish 1-2 the rest of the way and still make the title game. For the record, I think they win the last three and finish 10-2 and on top of the Atlantic Division with the hopes of playing Miami (FL) in the ACC title game (more on that in a minute).
Oklahoma and Oklahoma State is a tough one for me. I am leaning towards wanting Oklahoma to win. Here me out! I understand they have a great win over Ohio State. But I would rather them win now and take out Oklahoma State from contention. Oklahoma still has to play TCU and West Virginia (and the Big 12 Championship if they win those games). Oklahoma State goes to Iowa State and has Kansas State at home. I'm more confident in Oklahoma losing to TCU or West Virginia than I am Oklahoma State losing to Iowa State or Kansas State.
Unfortunately, I don't see Ohio State losing the rest of the way. But they're at Iowa and Iowa took them to the bitter end. Ohio State going down in a stunner would be amazing. Both because, F*CK URBAN MEYER, and it almost eliminates them from playoff contention.
Everyone say a prayer that Michigan State upsets Penn State this week. I highly, HIGHLY doubt it happens. But this would be huge for our SOS and ensures that Michigan State stays in the Top 25 (even if they lose to Ohio State the following week). I don't care how much you hate the Spartans, get out your green and white pompoms this Saturday at 12pm EST!
I think TCU goes down this weekend. I know they just lost last week but I think Tom Herman is bound to win one of these close games against a good opponent. I think Texas's defense is good enough to make Kenny Hill look like dog poop for the second straight week. Another Big 12 team out of the race would be stellar.
I really want Wisconsin to win out because I personally believe that we would beat them by 20+ points. They are not very good. And getting matched up with them in the playoffs would be a gift from Ara. It's great for us if they go undefeated and knock out Ohio State because I don't think they jump us even if they go undefeated.
Another huge game with the Miami (FL)-Virginia Tech matchup. For the past few weeks I have been of the opinion that Virginia Tech was going to wipe the floor with the Hurricanes. But I went back and looked at who they've beat. They got by a decent West Virginia team in week one. But since than, they've beat Delaware, East Carolina, Old Dominion, Boston College, UNC and Duke. And looked awful against Clemson. I think Miami (FL) has a solid chance to beat them. And it would be absolutely huge for them to do so. They would almost undoubtedly move 3-4 spots in the polls for the 11/11 match up against Notre Dame. A perfect stage for Josh Adams to run all over the Convicts.
Washington still scares me a bit. I think they could somehow sneak past us at the end of the year if they finish 12-1 and win the Pac-12 Championship. I don't think it's likely, but it could happen. We really need Stanford to beat them next weekend.
I mentioned Auburn earlier. I could care less if they win or lose this weekend. But like I mentioned before, I will be going crazy for them to upset both Georgia and Alabama in the next few weeks.
Obviously a lot of this is fluid, but there are some huge games this weekend with a lot of implications for the rest of the season. Let's hope we get out of this week with no injuries and a convincing W. Added in with some major upsets that helps us along the way.
