(Way too Early) Path to the Playoffs

[TeddyOH]

So we go into our midseason BYE week with lots of extra time to ponder this team's future. I understand 100% that there is soooooo much football to be played, and a lot can change. However, I keep hearing all this talk about ND's playoff hopes staying alive. What will it take for us to crack the final four? Let's look and discuss:

Spot #1
Mortal lock for the SEC champion. Pencil in the winner of LSU/Bama assuming no collapses. If they do, the champion will advance nonetheless. The Playoff system would implode without an SEC rep.

Spot #2
Mortal lock for the Big 12 champion. Baylor and TCU got jobbed last year. The voters right now are taking that into account, and the playoff committee will too - whether they admit it or not.

Spot #3
Big 10 champion. This assumes an undefeated or 1-loss OSU wins it, or probably an undefeated MSU. If OSU loses 2 games, or MSU loses 1 game, the Big 10 could be on the outside looking in.

Spot #4
So that means ND will be vying for that final spot.

Our biggest threat is obviously Clemson. We lost to them. However, we lost at their place on a last second failed 2-pt conversion. If Clemson loses 1 game, we could POTENTIALLY still leapfrog them despite head-to-head. It's clear we are pretty close teams. If Clemson drops a big loss or struggles down the stretch while we flourish, that might be enough - IF THEY LOSE A GAME. They have a few speedbumps ahead.

FSU is another issue. Although they haven't looked great, an undefeated FSU would knock us out. I think we get in ahead of a 1-loss FSU.

I think the Pac 12 is perhaps on the outside looking in. Stanford is the class of the conference, and we get to play them at their place. That is essentially OUR conference championship game. If we beat them and they win the Pac 12, we obviously edge them out. An undefeated or 1 loss Utah would probably edge us out, but similar to Clemson, it would depend upon how they lost and looked at the end.

One final consideration. Would the SEC, Big 10 or Big 12 runner up get a 2nd conference playoff spot? In the case of the SEC, I'd say no. Tough to take 2 teams from the West, and the East stinks. If there is a 1 loss Big 10 or Big 12 runner up, that could be trouble for us. However, I think we would have the edge on them. The trump card against ND will always be conference championship, so the runner up would not have a leg up on us.

 

[mokpra37]

I would say that losses for multiple teams will make one of your first three points invalid. Those three conferences are probably fighting for two spots. The ACC, PAC and ND are fighting for the other two spots.

 

[perseverare]

^ a few years ago the matchup was a repeat of the Ala. vs LSU game.
If they play a 'classic' decided by a point or so, expect both in the playoffs.

the Big 10 gets a spot.
Baylor or TCU winner another
ACC only assured if FSU wins out.

A 1 loss ND team will not get in ahead of a 1 loss LSU team; or a 1 loss ACC champ.
If ND beats Stanford, the Pac is out.

ND has a shot at a Major bowl and a Top 10 season which is a successful season!

 

[naysayers stop nonsense]

I would say that losses for multiple teams will make one of your first three points invalid. Those three conferences are probably fighting for two spots. The ACC, PAC and ND are fighting for the other two spots.

If the selection people evaluate quality losses which they will have to do for any of the one loss teams then ND might be dancing .

 

[Nocalirish]

^ a few years ago the matchup was a repeat of the Ala. vs LSU game.
If they play a 'classic' decided by a point or so, expect both in the playoffs.

the Big 10 gets a spot.
Baylor or TCU winner another
ACC only assured if FSU wins out.

A 1 loss ND team will not get in ahead of a 1 loss LSU team; or a 1 loss ACC champ.
If ND beats Stanford, the Pac is out.

ND has a shot at a Major bowl and a Top 10 season which is a successful season!

^ a few years ago the matchup was a repeat of the Ala. vs LSU game.
If they play a 'classic' decided by a point or so, expect both in the playoffs.

the Big 10 gets a spot.
Baylor or TCU winner another
ACC only assured if FSU wins out.

A 1 loss ND team will not get in ahead of a 1 loss LSU team; or a 1 loss ACC champ.
If ND beats Stanford, the Pac is out.

ND has a shot at a Major bowl and a Top 10 season which is a successful season!

Pers you are a complete flamer Moron. Where's YOUR Mich team now?
ND and at least 12 others have as good a shot at the playoff as anyone. One thing for sure is the $EC will NOT have 2 playoff teams.

 

[IrishMike409]

Pers you are a complete flamer Moron. Where's YOUR Mich team now?
ND and at least 12 others have as good a shot at the playoff as anyone. One thing for sure is the $EC will NOT have 2 playoff teams.

What's your problem? Why do you talk to people like that? It's one thing to disagree with an opinion, but you go way over the line with "complete flamer moron." Who taught that it's acceptable to talk that way?

 

[IrishBlooded]

I would say right now any 1 loss conference champion (with a conference championship game) is in over ND.

Now the question will be if there is a 2 loss conference champion, with a conference championship game. I.e. if the PAC champion somehow has 2 losses and still wins the conference. ND should vault them. (Assuming ND wins the rest of their games as well).

However as shown last year. The voters and the committee like that 13 game schedule. And if either Baylor or TCU drop a game between now and the last week of the regular season (when they play one another) then the winner of that might not be able to justify one of the last spots unless they are themselves undefeated.

That 13th game is an epic hurdle for ND. ND cannot accomplish in 12 games, what those P5 conference winners can in 13. The math just physically not there. For instance right now if you asked me for the 4 playoff teams. I would say:
Ohio State
LSU
Baylor
Utah

Looking at Strength of Schedule to this point (including this weekend's games)

Ohio State is at 68
LSU is at 28
Baylor is at 105
Utah is at 6

ND is at 23.

This is pretty comparable to last year. However the problem was once Ohio State got to play Wisky they blew them out. And that was a great quality win at the end of the year on a neutral field to help the committee forget about VTech.

If Baylor cannot impress the voters then ND will be fighting the ACC winner for the last spot. And if that is Clemson, then ND will be ranked between 5th and 7th in the last poll to decide the playoff teams.

Long story short. Unless ND is undefeated, since they don't have a route to a conference championship game. They are at the will of the rest of the college football world. And that is just the facts of it.

 

[Nocalirish]

I would say right now any 1 loss conference champion (with a conference championship game) is in over ND.

Now the question will be if there is a 2 loss conference champion, with a conference championship game. I.e. if the PAC champion somehow has 2 losses and still wins the conference. ND should vault them. (Assuming ND wins the rest of their games as well).

However as shown last year. The voters and the committee like that 13 game schedule. And if either Baylor or TCU drop a game between now and the last week of the regular season (when they play one another) then the winner of that might not be able to justify one of the last spots unless they are themselves undefeated.

That 13th game is an epic hurdle for ND. ND cannot accomplish in 12 games, what those P5 conference winners can in 13. The math just physically not there. For instance right now if you asked me for the 4 playoff teams. I would say:
Ohio State
LSU
Baylor
Utah

Looking at Strength of Schedule to this point (including this weekend's games)

Ohio State is at 68
LSU is at 28
Baylor is at 105
Utah is at 6

ND is at 23.

This is pretty comparable to last year. However the problem was once Ohio State got to play Wisky they blew them out. And that was a great quality win at the end of the year on a neutral field to help the committee forget about VTech.

If Baylor cannot impress the voters then ND will be fighting the ACC winner for the last spot. And if that is Clemson, then ND will be ranked between 5th and 7th in the last poll to decide the playoff teams.

Long story short. Unless ND is undefeated, since they don't have a route to a conference championship game. They are at the will of the rest of the college football world. And that is just the facts of it.

Your assumptions not facts dont add up. Noone knows how the playoff voters will react after one year.

 

[perseverare]

someone keep this thread. Let us revisit this and see.

 

[IrishBlooded]

Your assumptions not facts dont add up. Noone knows how the playoff voters will react after one year.

I think they are pretty predictable.

If a team has 13 games, and only has 1 loss (and it not being the last game). Where as that last game is against another top 25 team, with 1 week to prepare, on a neutral field. They will be voted in over a ND team that has a loss, no 13th game, and is sitting at home on that week.

I would say the only argument this year is the B12 and the ACC. If Clemson wins the ACC (without another loss) they will be ranked higher than ND will be by the grace they own the heads up over ND, and they will have defeated FSU, another ACC team (most likely in the top 25) in the ACC championship. As for the B12. The only 2 real teams there this year is Baylor and TCU. They play on the last week of the regular season (you know they planned that lol) And as long as both are undefeated going into that game, then the winner will be fighting for a final spot.

Leaving ND with 1 loss without a CCG, behind all of them and sitting at home. And even if it does happen that TCU / Baylor both have 1 loss to close the season, you still have 4 of the P5 conferences capable of putting a conference champion on the pedestal with only 1 loss. And 1 of those being a team that beat ND heads up.

ND's only prayer is for Clemson to lose the conference or the division, and for both Baylor / TCU to end the season with at least 1 loss if not more.

No matter what, ND has no control over their playoff chances at this point, because they lost 1 game, to a currently top 10 opponent on the road at night, in a hurricane by 2 points. That is how thin the line between success and failure is for ND currently.

 

[NDSMC78]

I think they are pretty predictable.

If a team has 13 games, and only has 1 loss (and it not being the last game). Where as that last game is against another top 25 team, with 1 week to prepare, on a neutral field. They will be voted in over a ND team that has a loss, no 13th game, and is sitting at home on that week.

More pure speculation. No one knows if that would, in fact, happen should those events come to pass.

 

[Toby Smart]

Is a zero loss team always better than a one loss team? Nope. There are circumstances to back it up.

 

[Irish215]

Miami over Clemson next week!

 

[IrishBlooded]

More pure speculation. No one knows if that would, in fact, happen should those events come to pass.

Show me using logic and proven reality where those things haven't happened. I completely agree we can play the 'what if' game all day and it doesn't matter one way or the other.

But I would challenge anyone to show a more logical argument

 

[Bodizephax]

What's your problem? Why do you talk to people like that? It's one thing to disagree with an opinion, but you go way over the line with "complete flamer moron." Who taught that it's acceptable to talk that way?

Purse deserves what he gets. He has been flaming for years. He lives for getting a rise out of ND fans. NoCalIrish is a straightshooter. He tells it like it is.

 

[Bodizephax]

Stanford is on a roll--they moved ahead of us in the rankings--which is good. If Stanford keeps rolling teams like they are doing they could move into the top 5 when we play them.
When we beat them we will get a high quality win and get into the playoffs--IMO.

 

[Bodizephax]

I also would like to add another thing that we have in our (Notre Dame) favor.
The media has been taking notice of our star players like Will Fuller, CJ Prosise, Deshone Kizer, Sheldon Day, K. Russell and Jaylon Smith---- Don't you think that helps Notre Dames cause in the voters eyes? The actual players. The media has also brought up all the injuries we have had and that we have adapted and overcame.
I think Notre Dame is starting to peak at the right time--the end of the season.

And Temple is undefeated and ranked #24 now and if they beat East Carolina next week they will probably move up a bit. We romp them by 21 points or more and that is going to look real good. Also Pitt has a good team with only 1 loss and should be favored in their next few games before we play them--- If they do they will be at 7 and 1 and ranked in the top 20---If we roll them by 14 points or more that will get us another quality road win.

We need to win out and look good doing it. The two straight wins against a good Navy team and a uber talented USC team is making me confident.

Go Irish !!
Beat Temple !!

 

[NDSMC78]

Show me using logic and proven reality where those things haven't happened. I completely agree we can play the 'what if' game all day and it doesn't matter one way or the other.

But I would challenge anyone to show a more logical argument

You are basing your position on what happened last year. We don't know that would meet with the same result this year, even if we end up with one zero loss team and three one loss teams.

 

[BGI User 348]

All that matters is that NOTRE DAME WINS OUT! There are MANY losses still out there--yes even in the SEC. IMO ND really needs stanford to win the pac12 after we WHUP them. That is then our most likely "spot"--but not our only. Convincing wins over temple and a possible ACC champ pitt would be big too.

In the 10 ND needs help from michigan, or wisky, or minniehaha.
In the sec they need a round-robin of losses....maybe with ole miss or a&m helping.
Same in the big12--texas, oklahoma, wvu can all help.

I was optimistic in 2012 and ALL the losses fell ND's way. The same can happen IF ND WINS OUT!!!

 

[IrishBlooded]

You are basing your position on what happened last year. We don't know that would meet with the same result this year, even if we end up with one zero loss team and three one loss teams.

I added a little math in there as well. As in if a team has 13 games and 12 wins that is better than 11 wins in 12 games. Add to that the realization that in most cases that 13th game includes a ranked opponent not originally on the schedule with 1 week to prepare on a neutral field.

And saying that we only have 1 week of data to go on does invalidate the previous results it just reduces the amount of experiences you can draw from.

Again. Offer a logical reason why they won't go that way and I will be happy to change my opinion. In the last year plus the only argument I have been offered is that you can't use 1 year as the baseline.

 

[IowaIrish1]

IF ND wins out they will be right there in the top 5. They may miss out and that's too bad. Didn't play a good game against Clemson.

REALLY need Stanford to win the pac 12. That would be a signature win on the road. It would really help if USC finished out strong.

 

[NDSMC78]

I added a little math in there as well. As in if a team has 13 games and 12 wins that is better than 11 wins in 12 games. Add to that the realization that in most cases that 13th game includes a ranked opponent not originally on the schedule with 1 week to prepare on a neutral field.

And saying that we only have 1 week of data to go on does invalidate the previous results it just reduces the amount of experiences you can draw from.

Again. Offer a logical reason why they won't go that way and I will be happy to change my opinion. In the last year plus the only argument I have been offered is that you can't use 1 year as the baseline.

Not necessarily. Clemson, for instance, opened its season playing Wofford and Appalachian St. Ohio St. played a nonconference schedule of Virginia Tech, Northern Illinois, Hawaii and Western Michigan. The fact that the two schools could end up 12-1, as opposed to ND going 11-1, does not mean that their 12 wins are better than our 11 wins. (This is for illustrative purposes only; I will concede that Clemson beating us on the field should give them a bid, if they finish with one loss, ahead of us with one loss).

 

[no1e]

Not necessarily. Clemson, for instance, opened its season playing Wofford and Appalachian St. Ohio St. played a nonconference schedule of Virginia Tech, Northern Illinois, Hawaii and Western Michigan. The fact that the two schools could end up 12-1, as opposed to ND going 11-1, does not mean that their 12 wins are better than our 11 wins. (This is for illustrative purposes only; I will concede that Clemson beating us on the field should give them a bid, if they finish with one loss, ahead of us with one loss).

Just out of curiosity and the fun of speculation what do you think happens if Clemson's one loss is to FSU and as a result FSU goes on to win the ACC but loses to Florida for their one regular season loss for a 12-1 record? Assuming ND wins out.

 

[basketlax41]

Just out of curiosity and the fun of speculation what do you think happens if Clemson's one loss is to FSU and as a result FSU goes on to win the ACC but loses to Florida for their one regular season loss for a 12-1 record? Assuming ND wins out.

Well if you think ND gets in over a one loss Oklahoma because we beat Texas, using the same logic FSU would get in over ND.

 

[BGI User 348]

All that matters is that NOTRE DAME WINS OUT! There are MANY losses still out there--yes even in the SEC. IMO ND really needs stanford to win the pac12 after we WHUP them. That is then our most likely "spot"--but not our only. Convincing wins over temple and a possible ACC champ pitt would be big too.

In the 10 ND needs help from michigan, or wisky, or minniehaha.
In the sec they need a round-robin of losses....maybe with ole miss or a&m helping.
Same in the big12--texas, oklahoma, wvu can all help.

I was optimistic in 2012 and ALL the losses fell ND's way. The same can happen IF ND WINS OUT!!!

MOMENTUM. If ND WINS OUT the committee will keep moving them UP while others would drop with any late season loss. It CAN happen. ND must MAKE it happen.

WIN OUT!!!

 

[perseverare]

key 'other' game to the ND chances is Ala. vs LSU.
if LSU wins and wins out they will get the only SEC spot.
If Ala wins and then wins the conf. championship game then
Bama in
JMO
a 1 loss LSU team would get a spot before any other 1 loss team except possily tOSU.

 

[BGI User 1596]

LSU has been solid - they don't piddle around with the weaker teams and beat down a good Florida.

 

[SiberianKnightmare]

I would not say LSU beat down UF, They won on a fake field goal.

UF could wind up being a real spoiler. They could take out FSU and either LSU or Bama in the SEC championship game.

They could wind up with a 3 way tie in the Big 10 East. Assuming that happens and Iowa doesn't win the Big 10, their champ would be out.

Still waaaay too much football to be played. Remember last year, the first Committee poll had 3 SEC West teams in it.