C'mon IIO: rebuilding year on D. Be serious. We lost one of the best d lineman in the country, may be the best linebackers in the country, and Shumate/Russell who both will probably stick in the NFL. I'm sorry, but I don't see how we are better. Morgan has no clue in BVG's scheme -- he hardly played last year behind... Schmidt?! Redfield -- sorry but what has he done? He is a senior now - but the guy hasn't done a thing for us.
I hope I"m wrong but I'm thinking this year's d is going to be an adventure...
Stu, can the defense really be that much worse? I agree wholeheartedly that it's going to be adventure...
This is what I know...
If the DL is healthy, they'll be better than people think. Especially against the run. Jones and Tillery are massive kids and will cause serious disruption inside and Rochell is excellent in the run game. Trumbetti has the most work to do of the DL in that respect, but another year under Gilmore should have him playing better... Here is my prediction. Jones back and healthy, combined with Tillery a full year into the program and much stronger, will give ND more combined productivity out of their interior starting two than last year with Day and Tillery as a freshman... I'm not saying either player will be better than Sheldon Day, but I think the sum of the parts (especially when you consider the improved depth behind them) will be more productive than Day and the freshman version of Jerry.
The linebackers certainly take a step back with Jaylon leaving (he's irreplaceable) but Onwualu is a senior and I'm expecting his best year out of him and Morgan I expect to be a mixed bag... Lost at times in the scheme and out of position, but making plays that have you asking "why can't he do that all the time" at other times. He's do damn strong, fast and athletic. When he hits you, you go down. Elston and BVG have to make sure he's in the right place to make the tackle though. That's the problem currently. Coney will be a big drop off from Jaylon, but anybody would be. I just hope to see steady improvement from him from game-to-game, trending towards becoming solid and consistent in 2017. I'd be really happy of he becomes a Moe Crum Jr. type of player / leader for ND in his upper classman years.
The secondary is what it is... A work in progress with few experienced parts and lots of young, inexperienced talent. This is Cole Luke's draft year and I expect him to be really focused and solid. He'll never be spectacular, but with a good, quality, senior season there is no reason he can't be a middle round NFL Draft Pick if he stays healthy. Opposite him it will be interesting to see who wins the job between Butler and Watkins. I love both their size and measurables, but I think Watkins is the better athlete and the more natural corner. I'm expecting him to win the position and look a lot like Cole Luke did a couple years back. Really good at times, and really young and inexperienced at others. I can't event comment on the safeties really. Every time Tranquil is on the field he seems to make a ton of plays. Unfortunately, that hasn't been very often due to two season-ending ACL injuries. He could be Tommy Z good as an SS if he could stay healthy. He's huge kid at nearly 6'2 and 225lbs. Very well put together, very smart and a good athlete. At the FS position, who knows? Maybe the light comes on for Max and he figures it out and we get a really solid, Zeke Motta type of senior season from him, or maybe he's on the bench, losing his job to a true freshman. Keep in mind that ND fans were clamoring to have Harrison Smith benched the first two years he played as well. He was downright awful at times earlier in his career. It wasn't until he was a senior that he transformed himself into an elite college safety and 1st round NFL draft pick. A lot of fans had given up on him. For Max it's not about ability. He's as good of an athlete as ND has. It's about focus and recognition. He had monster game against USC last year when he was dialed in. He had something like 15 tackles in that game an I thought his coverage was pretty spot on. He also had games like Stanford, and you know how that went. if it's not Max it looks like the keys t the backend of the defense will be turned over to Devin Studstill... I truly believe Kelly when he says the kid is natural and that football comes easy to him. It's obvious from watching about 2 minutes of his high school film that he has "it". Regardless, it's a huge ask of a true freshman to get everyone lineup in and NFL style scheme, so I'm not expecting the world from him right away. He'll make mistakes. I can live with that. Because I think he's going to be an All American someday.
For me the defense doesn't need to be great this year, it just needs to be ok and at it's best in some key moments for ND to have a successful, 9-3 type of regular season. ND ranked 34th last year in the only defensive category that truly matters, scoring defense. They surrendered 22.4 points per game. My instincts tell me that would go up to about 26-27 points per game if this 2016 defense played the 2015 schedule. Thankfully, the schedule (on paper at least) should be easier on 2016 and ND is facing something like 4 or 5 new starting quarterbacks. That includes against Texas, USC, Stanford and Navy (soooo glad Reynolds has graduated). My guess is the net result is that ND is still a top 40-45 scoring defense and with the offensive production similar, or improved, I expect it to translate into similar win / loss results.