The Bookies have not Bought in.....

[Chitownrealist]

We are giving 5 to the Hokies this weekend. I think that is low given the respective performances.

Duke was giving them 5 at home last week. For all of those people that claim betting lines move irrationally when we are playing well - this game would seem to throw that theory in flux.

Notre Dame is 18-6 straight up and 22-2 against the spread in its last 24 games on the road in October. It would seem the bookies or gamblers heavily underestimate us on the road in October. I don’t give gambling advice, but objectively, this line seems too low.

Hope I’m right.

 

[twalsh]

We are giving 5 to the Hokies this weekend. I think that is low given the respective performances.

Duke was giving them 5 at home last week. For all of those people that claim betting lines move irrationally when we are playing well - this game would seem to throw that theory in flux.

Notre Dame is 18-6 straight up and 22-2 against the spread in its last 24 games on the road in October. It would seem the bookies or gamblers heavily underestimate us on the road in October. I don’t give gambling advice, but objectively, this line seems too low.

Hope I’m right.

We are playing in what is considered one of the difficult night game environments in college football. That might have something to do with it.

 

[G_a_r_y]

The betters have not bought in. The bookies have nothing to do with it.

 

[NotreDomer1]

Emotional win over Stanford at home to a night game in Blacksburg. I’m not surprised. Anyone taking VTech lightly because of the ODU game would be foolish. They couldn’t move the ball in that game because their starter went out and their backup came in completely unprepared. He’ll get plenty of practice reps going into this game and looked decent against Duke. In 30 years, there are only a few times I’ve seen a Bud Foster defense get lit up like that. The chances of it happening twice in the same season would be even more rare.

 

[TOMMY_23]

The betters have not bought in. The bookies have nothing to do with it.

The bookies set the #

 

[chaseball]

Notre Dame is a far more talented team .. and Ian Book has this team firing on all cylinders right now.

I take those 5 points easy .. the spread should be at least two TDS ..

Once ND beats virginia tech by a few scores the way they just stomped stanford, ND will start getting more respect from betters and oddsmakers

 

[BGI User 1596]

We are giving 5 to the Hokies this weekend. I think that is low given the respective performances.

Duke was giving them 5 at home last week. For all of those people that claim betting lines move irrationally when we are playing well - this game would seem to throw that theory in flux.

Notre Dame is 18-6 straight up and 22-2 against the spread in its last 24 games on the road in October. It would seem the bookies or gamblers heavily underestimate us on the road in October. I don’t give gambling advice, but objectively, this line seems too low.

Hope I’m right.

Nobody has forgotten the MIami debacle.

 

[NDIRISH53]

Take. The. Spread.

Irish by 21

 

[G_a_r_y]

The bookies set the #

Then the betters take over.

 

[Chitownrealist]

Emotional win over Stanford at home to a night game in Blacksburg. I’m not surprised. Anyone taking VTech lightly because of the ODU game would be foolish. They couldn’t move the ball in that game because their starter went out and their backup came in completely unprepared. He’ll get plenty of practice reps going into this game and looked decent against Duke. In 30 years, there are only a few times I’ve seen a Bud Foster defense get lit up like that. The chances of it happening twice in the same season would be even more rare.

That QB you are referencing was Josh Jackson’s back-up who is a transfer from Kansas. This isn’t Shea Patterson or some freshman phenom. VT’s offense should have a very hard time against our defense. On the other side they lost their leading defensive pass rusher with the most sacks and hurries and replaced him with a platoon of underclass men. Yeah we have injuries too, but it seems we faired alright with our crew last weekend.

Sure - Blacksburg is a tough place to play and make it a prime time night game and it is even tougher - but come on. This line seems way out of whack. We were giving Stanford 6 at home. Now we r giving 5 to the Hokies away? What am I missing. I have us by more than 2 scores.

 

[bizzybecknd]

Then the betters take over.

Started at 3, went to 5. Betters have bought in on ND. They aren't going to jump the line to 14, although I bet it gets to 7ish.

 

[BGI User 1596]

That QB you are referencing was Josh Jackson’s back-up who is a transfer from Kansas. This isn’t Shea Patterson or some freshman phenom. VT’s offense should have a very hard time against our defense. On the other side they lost their leading defensive pass rusher with the most sacks and hurries and replaced him with a platoon of underclass men. Yeah we have injuries too, but it seems we faired alright with our crew last weekend.

Sure - Blacksburg is a tough place to play and make it a prime time night game and it is even tougher - but come on. This line seems way out of whack. We were giving Stanford 6 at home. Now we r giving 5 to the Hokies away? What am I missing. I have us by more than 2 scores.

. They are better than Ball State and Vanderbilt.

 

[echowaker]

. They are better than Ball State and Vanderbilt.

and that means ?.........nothing.

 

[tkirish]

I wouldn't call this a "trap" game. However, it will be interesting to see how the irish come out to play. You know V Tech will be focused and fired up. I want to see if the irish can match their intensity. My guess is this. The Hokies will flying around in the first few series with a lot of emotion and will have momentum. I think ND needs to "weather the storm." Once the game has settled in after the first ten minutes, I think the irish will establish themselves. Like Miami last year, turnovers in a game like this are huge. So first and foremost, the irish need to protect the ball. If they can continue to play like the last two weeks and stay away from turnovers, I think they win by at least 2 TDs.

 

[nemeth#5]

Blacksburg at night is worth 4-5 points. I agree, you'd think it would be higher still though as traditionally ND lines are inflated by a point or two due to the large fanbase.

Potentially a trap game. I will not be betting on this game.

 

[echowaker]

I wouldn't call this a "trap" game. However, it will be interesting to see how the irish come out to play. You know V Tech will be focused and fired up. I want to see if the irish can match their intensity. My guess is this. The Hokies will flying around in the first few series with a lot of emotion and will have momentum. I think ND needs to "weather the storm." Once the game has settled in after the first ten minutes, I think the irish will establish themselves. Like Miami last year, turnovers in a game like this are huge. So first and foremost, the irish need to protect the ball. If they can continue to play like the last two weeks and stay away from turnovers, I think they win by at least 2 TDs.

hopefully nd is on defense to start the game.

 

[NyyorkerND]

I'm taking this season one week at a time. I'm still in shock we manhandled Stanford.

 

[FriedmanIP]

hopefully nd is on defense to start the game.

I feel the opposite. If you’re going to a tough environment, that’s the ideal time to start on offense. Go down, get a score, and quite the crowd right away.

Not to mention that’s what our team and coaches like to do anyways, and I’d always prefer to play to our strengths , especially on the road.

 

[ivan brunetti]

Blacksburg at night is worth 4-5 points. I agree, you'd think it would be higher still though as traditionally ND lines are inflated by a point or two due to the large fanbase.

Potentially a trap game. I will not be betting on this game.

Line opened at ND -5.5. Now you can get ND -6 to ND -4.5. Bet big on both and hope ND wins by exactly 5.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

 

[chaseball]

I think this line is bogus ..

The rest of the country has yet to come around on just how good /big a difference maker Ian Book is .. this will change after ND wins by several scores saturday and book throws another 300+ yards and 3 tds while looking like the 2nd coming of Manziel again.

I take ND and those 4-6 points any day of the week.

 

[88ND]

The bookies set the #

They set the line and it moves pending where the money is being placed.

 

[ivan brunetti]

I think this line is bogus ..

The rest of the country has yet to come around on just how good /big a difference maker Ian Book is .. this will change after ND wins by several scores saturday and book throws another 300+ yards and 3 tds while looking like the 2nd coming of Manziel again.

I take ND and those 4-6 points any day of the week.

It is difficult to make money betting on a team that you love with your heart. I think most (including myself) would have picked ND to whollup Ball State and easily cover.

 

[nemeth#5]

Line opened at ND -5.5. Now you can get ND -6 to ND -4.5. Bet big on both and hope ND wins by exactly 5.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

I strongly suggest to not do that lol.

 

[Chitownrealist]

It seems some of you are missing out on two significant facts here: 1) ND fans do not passionately move lines - if they did - this line would be around 15. The bookies set the line where they believe the betting will go 50/50, and then it moves some, depending on where the flow is. This game has not moved as sharply as Stanford did, and for many bookmakers it has not moved at all; 2) and arguably most important, we are 22-2 against the spread (think about that for a second) on away games during the month of October. That is a crazy divergence, which points to bookies and gamblers historically and systematically underestimating the Irish.

Now from a current analysis:

Team Stats VTech / ND / ND w/ Book Starting
Passing Yards 37th / 65th / 20th
Rushing Yards 40th / 44th / 11th
Points For Tied 32nd /54th / 10th
Points Against 37th /27th

That is a massive transformation from the first 3 games to the last 2 games. If people are looking at computer models or season long stats they are not seeing the correct picture. Add that to the fact that Ryan Willis (3 star who played at Kansas for 2 years before transferring to VTech) is taking over as starting QB for Josh Jackson (who broke his foot) started 8 games in 2015 and threw 9 TDs and 10 INTs, and in 2016 started 2 games and threw 3 TDs and 7 interceptions for Kansas. This year he has 4 TDs and no INTs against Old Dominion and Duke. On top of all of that DE Trevon Hill was dismissed from the team after the loss to Old Dominion. He led the team in tackles-for-loss. VTech's other talent losses on the defensive side of the ball from 2017 are well documented and hurt them a lot. Bud Foster is not playing with a full deck.

see - https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ginia-tech-defense-losses-starters-bud-foster

This game should not be close. I have ND winning 44 17 (maybe 24 if we give up a garbage TD at the end). Lay the five points.

 

[ivan brunetti]

I strongly suggest to not do that lol.

Yes. You would be wagering the vig vs the odds of hitting that exact 5 point spread.

 

[chaseball]

It seems some of you are missing out on two significant facts here: 1) ND fans do not passionately move lines - if they did - this line would be around 15. The bookies set the line where they believe the betting will go 50/50, and then it moves some, depending on where the flow is. This game has not moved as sharply as Stanford did, and for many bookmakers it has not moved at all; 2) and arguably most important, we are 22-2 against the spread (think about that for a second) on away games during the month of October. That is a crazy divergence, which points to bookies and gamblers historically and systematically underestimating the Irish.

Now from a current analysis:

Team Stats VTech / ND / ND w/ Book Starting
Passing Yards 37th / 65th / 20th
Rushing Yards 40th / 44th / 11th
Points For Tied 32nd /54th / 10th
Points Against 37th /27th

Add that to the fact that Ryan Willis (3 star who played at Kansas for 2 years before transferring to VTech) is taking over as starting QB for Josh Jackson (who broke his foot) started 8 games in 2015 and threw 9 TDs and 10 INTs, and in 2016 started 2 games and threw 3 TDs and 7 interceptions for Kansas. This year he has 4 TDs and no INTs against Old Dominion and Duke. On top of all of that DE Trevon Hill was dismissed from the team after the loss to Old Dominion. He led the team in tackles-for-loss. VTech's other talent losses on the defensive side of the ball from 2017 are well documented and hurt them a lot. Bud Foster is not playing with a full deck.

see - https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...ginia-tech-defense-losses-starters-bud-foster

This game should not be close. I have ND winning 44 17 (maybe 24 if we give up a garbage TD at the end). Lay the five points.

A lot of these arguments could have been made last year to explain how Miami had no chance ... i still don't understand what happened last year in that game .. and then the total collapse that ensued rest of season.

 

[Chitownrealist]

This game should not be close. I have ND winning 44 17 (maybe 24 if we give up a garbage TD at the end). Lay the five points.

So how many of you who occasionally wager on a game went after this one? When I took the bet we were giving 5.5. I rarely bet on ND, but this one looked way too good to pass up. We are now 23-2 against the spread on away games in October. That is an incredible stat.