Okay - in the big picture, I like the fact that it should be impossible for the CFP to leave a 12-0 Notre Dame out of the playoffs having played a representative schedule (unlike UCF). Think of the implications for ND and its independent status if that happened....I won't go there.
So I think we are good...but we all know that the hand wringing and teeth gnashing is just starting before Selection Sunday. Notre Dame will be turned in the barrel multiple times.
I think Tuesday will be big; to see if we stay #3. Let's face it - this weekend was not good for us generally speaking. The Michigan win got greatly diminished and gazumped by OSU. And our relative performance to other contenders....was not the best. If we drop to #4 on Tuesday - that might leave us vulnerable to certain scenarios.
Scenarios we need:
* We need Alabama to beat Georgia.
* Clemson will beat Pitt in a walk so - I am not considering anything there.
* We need Oklahoma/Texas to be a typical score every possession Big 12 game.
* It would be nice if OSU/NW to be close - but I think OSU will be NW by 40 points+
Scenarios that concern me:
* Georgia beats Alabama - now both are in + Clemson; and we are in the mix with Ohio State and Oklahoma for last spot. That's a bad scenario when you have not played and the last win was a so-so win; this is especially concerning if we move to #4 this week.
* Blow outs by both OSU and Oklahoma. We want clear differentiation between the Big 10 and Big 12 Championship games. OSU much more impressive than OU for example; so there's a clear pick between the two. If they both win handily - it could again become a 3 way conversation.
So.....I feel 80-90% confident, we are good - but this is what the angel/devil is saying in my ear at present.
So I think we are good...but we all know that the hand wringing and teeth gnashing is just starting before Selection Sunday. Notre Dame will be turned in the barrel multiple times.
I think Tuesday will be big; to see if we stay #3. Let's face it - this weekend was not good for us generally speaking. The Michigan win got greatly diminished and gazumped by OSU. And our relative performance to other contenders....was not the best. If we drop to #4 on Tuesday - that might leave us vulnerable to certain scenarios.
Scenarios we need:
* We need Alabama to beat Georgia.
* Clemson will beat Pitt in a walk so - I am not considering anything there.
* We need Oklahoma/Texas to be a typical score every possession Big 12 game.
* It would be nice if OSU/NW to be close - but I think OSU will be NW by 40 points+
Scenarios that concern me:
* Georgia beats Alabama - now both are in + Clemson; and we are in the mix with Ohio State and Oklahoma for last spot. That's a bad scenario when you have not played and the last win was a so-so win; this is especially concerning if we move to #4 this week.
* Blow outs by both OSU and Oklahoma. We want clear differentiation between the Big 10 and Big 12 Championship games. OSU much more impressive than OU for example; so there's a clear pick between the two. If they both win handily - it could again become a 3 way conversation.
So.....I feel 80-90% confident, we are good - but this is what the angel/devil is saying in my ear at present.
