OT: Finacial Qustion to Howard Hall and others ?

[rgc7]

I had started way
back about 7 or 8 years ago when the DJIA was down around 7000.
PE ratios for Blue Chip Stocks were under 10 with dividend yields close to 5% to invest
Relatively heavy in relation to my investment capital and also sold a number of puts short.
I made my projections, based upon a mumber of formula that I used, and I projected a top
In the. DJIA of slightly north of 19,000.
Howard Hall told me in another Tread some months ago, that his projection was right
Around 22, 000. Much better than mine of 19,000 was. Much more accurate as well !
I don't know what his view are now, but if he is still posting, I would be interested in his views ?
In any case, I have liquidated about 85 % of my investments, and have stopped just about all my short sales of put options.
I have noticed that my Watch lists have been having large gyrations with a bias to the down side, which is a sign of a top in the market. Indicating one of two things to me.
1. The Market Upward trend is near an end, and could react down , not too radically,
To form a relatively large trading range band.
Or 2. Some major " Catalysts " could send us into a Real Bear Market wiping out
Much of the gains of the great Bull Marlet that has lasted a number of years ?
Politicitics aside, the Market will go where the Market will go !
I know that People are trying to give both Obama and now Trump credit for the Great Bull Market,
But in reality Market will get over valued and then under valued , and according to value investors
Like the late Ben Graham, the Markets will always come back to their Mean !
Passing Trump's tax cuts and infra structure programs can really help keep the Market
From a big fall, but based upon fundamentals , I still don't see too much room on the Upside !
However, with near zero interest on savings, there are very few places to park investments,
So to many, I guess a 2 % yield on stocks looks pretty good ?
An extremely over valued market with few other places to get a yield on money ?

 

[Pennick44]

I had started way
back about 7 or 8 years ago when the DJIA was down around 7000.
PE ratios for Blue Chip Stocks were under 10 with dividend yields close to 5% to invest
Relatively heavy in relation to my investment capital and also sold a number of puts short.
I made my projections, based upon a mumber of formula that I used, and I projected a top
In the. DJIA of slightly north of 19,000.
Howard Hall told me in another Tread some months ago, that his projection was right
Around 22, 000. Much better than mine of 19,000 was. Much more accurate as well !
I don't know what his view are now, but if he is still posting, I would be interested in his views ?
In any case, I have liquidated about 85 % of my investments, and have stopped just about all my short sales of put options.
I have noticed that my Watch lists have been having large gyrations with a bias to the down side, which is a sign of a top in the market. Indicating one of two things to me.
1. The Market Upward trend is near an end, and could react down , not too radically,
To form a relatively large trading range band.
Or 2. Some major " Catalysts " could send us into a Real Bear Market wiping out
Much of the gains of the great Bull Marlet that has lasted a number of years ?
Politicitics aside, the Market will go where the Market will go !
I know that People are trying to give both Obama and now Trump credit for the Great Bull Market,
But in reality Market will get over valued and then under valued , and according to value investors
Like the late Ben Graham, the Markets will always come back to their Mean !
Passing Trump's tax cuts and infra structure programs can really help keep the Market
From a big fall, but based upon fundamentals , I still don't see too much room on the Upside !
However, with near zero interest on savings, there are very few places to park investments,
So to many, I guess a 2 % yield on stocks looks pretty good ?
An extremely over valued market with few other places to get a yield on money ?

I would recommend that you sit down with some fee only financial planners. Evaluate their offerings and ask for recommendations. Meet with several. Your particular situation will effect the proper plan of attack.

 

[rgc7]

I would recommend that you sit down with some fee only financial planners. Evaluate their offerings and ask for recommendations. Meet with several. Your particular situation will effect the proper plan of attack.

Thanks Pennick,
I think that you misunderstood my post ! I am an economics major, have done my own investing for over 50 years, and have been extremely successful at it. I stopped taking
Advise and tips from " experts " and " professional advisers years ago. There advise always
Was very expensive in the sense that their advise was absolutely not very good !
I had a discussion with Howard Hall a number of months ago, and it was both fun and interesting
Exchanging views with him. I was not seeking advise, but was just curious to see if he changed his views.
I notice that posters are trying to credit Trump or Obama for the great market that we have enjoyed.
My years of study and investing tell me that we at a top ! A bubble ! The higher the market goes, the greater
The pain will be when this bubble finally breaks !
The President can help stabilize the market and make the fall mild or severe depending on his agenda, but the market will go up or down on fundamental Values. Those values are now few and far between.
I made a lot of money ( relative to what I put at risk ) riding this market up from very close to the bottom and selling at about as close to the top as I see it. There may be a few more dollars to be made, but the higher the top, the more risk one is taken. Greed and Optimism are always the highest at market tops.
I really had two great investment advisers, the best ever, Benjamin Graham and Jessie Livermore,
They both died before I ever invested a dime, but their thoughts and advise are the best one can ever get.
So I was trying to make a few main GENERAL points:
1. No one person , President, or any one can make or really break a Long term Market Trend !
2. Under valued markets will eventually rise, and over valued markets will eventual fall.
3. Since Howard Hall seems to have pick the almost exact top of this market it was fun and interesting to discuss the Market with him. I do my own thinking, and was not seeking any
Advise, but I just enjoy talking Investing with knowledgeable people.
Sorry if I was not clear in my previous post.
.

 

[Pennick44]

Thanks Pennick,
I think that you misunderstood my post ! I am an economics major, have done my own investing for over 50 years, and have been extremely successful at it. I stopped taking
Advise and tips from " experts " and " professional advisers years ago. There advise always
Was very expensive in the sense that their advise was absolutely not very good !
I had a discussion with Howard Hall a number of months ago, and it was both fun and interesting
Exchanging views with him. I was not seeking advise, but was just curious to see if he changed his views.
I notice that posters are trying to credit Trump or Obama for the great market that we have enjoyed.
My years of study and investing tell me that we at a top ! A bubble ! The higher the market goes, the greater
The pain will be when this bubble finally breaks !
The President can help stabilize the market and make the fall mild or severe depending on his agenda, but the market will go up or down on fundamental Values. Those values are now few and far between.
I made a lot of money ( relative to what I put at risk ) riding this market up from very close to the bottom and selling at about as close to the top as I see it. There may be a few more dollars to be made, but the higher the top, the more risk one is taken. Greed and Optimism are always the highest at market tops.
I really had two great investment advisers, the best ever, Benjamin Graham and Jessie Livermore,
They both died before I ever invested a dime, but their thoughts and advise are the best one can ever get.
So I was trying to make a few main GENERAL points:
1. No one person , President, or any one can make or really break a Long term Market Trend !
2. Under valued markets will eventually rise, and over valued markets will eventual fall.
3. Since Howard Hall seems to have pick the almost exact top of this market it was fun and interesting to discuss the Market with him. I do my own thinking, and was not seeking any
Advise, but I just enjoy talking Investing with knowledgeable people.
Sorry if I was not clear in my previous post.
.

My bad rgc,
I thought you were looking for more personal retirement/investment advice.
Lets put a whoopin on the Temple Owls in a few weeks!

 

[rgc7]

My bad rgc,
I thought you were looking for more personal retirement/investment advice.
Lets put a whoopin on the Temple Owls in a few weeks!

Amen Pennick ! Beat The Owls !

 

[Howard Hall 74]

I had started way
back about 7 or 8 years ago when the DJIA was down around 7000.
PE ratios for Blue Chip Stocks were under 10 with dividend yields close to 5% to invest
Relatively heavy in relation to my investment capital and also sold a number of puts short.
I made my projections, based upon a mumber of formula that I used, and I projected a top
In the. DJIA of slightly north of 19,000.
Howard Hall told me in another Tread some months ago, that his projection was right
Around 22, 000. Much better than mine of 19,000 was. Much more accurate as well !
I don't know what his view are now, but if he is still posting, I would be interested in his views ?
In any case, I have liquidated about 85 % of my investments, and have stopped just about all my short sales of put options.
I have noticed that my Watch lists have been having large gyrations with a bias to the down side, which is a sign of a top in the market. Indicating one of two things to me.
1. The Market Upward trend is near an end, and could react down , not too radically,
To form a relatively large trading range band.
Or 2. Some major " Catalysts " could send us into a Real Bear Market wiping out
Much of the gains of the great Bull Marlet that has lasted a number of years ?
Politicitics aside, the Market will go where the Market will go !
I know that People are trying to give both Obama and now Trump credit for the Great Bull Market,
But in reality Market will get over valued and then under valued , and according to value investors
Like the late Ben Graham, the Markets will always come back to their Mean !
Passing Trump's tax cuts and infra structure programs can really help keep the Market
From a big fall, but based upon fundamentals , I still don't see too much room on the Upside !
However, with near zero interest on savings, there are very few places to park investments,
So to many, I guess a 2 % yield on stocks looks pretty good ?
An extremely over valued market with few other places to get a yield on money ?

rgc7, just this remembrance, when the market is going higher, "there is noone more bullish than a sold out bull" . My 22,000 call was simply based on a technical count and read of the market at that time. My suspicion and feeling has changed a little. I do not think we are in a bubble, the fundamentals are driving the pricing, i.e. profits. I've always felt that what we experienced with the Obama market was simply a 8 year sideways market, held in check by horrible studership of the economy, disastrous over regulations, and artificially low interest rates coupled very sluggish European economies.

After the election the first 1,500 point move (up to 19,500 from 18,100 or so), in my view, was a "thank god Hillary lost" adjustment. Driven mostly on the knowledge Trump would roll back terrible regulations. Now the move, from 19,500 up is motivated by less government regulations, a reinvigorated European market and the hope for tax reform and infrastructure. Which may or may not happen. Having said that, all things considered, I think the market will grid up to 23,000 this year. A typical market retracement, or pause that refreshes, correction is 10-12%, if ignited by an outside event (war, terrorism etc.,) the pull back could be very violent and occur over a much shorter period of time. Keep in mind a Dow pull back of 12% - 15% from 23,000 is 2,700 to 3,450 + points. From 23,000 that would put it back to the point the move, post election and Hillary's loss, started - 19,500. Which in that area is important - 19,200 tp 19,500.

What will be frightening, my suspicion, would be the violence of the pull back, happening in 10 - 20 days. So be ready, it might take 6-8 more months for that to happen. I'm a contrarian trader and believe asset classes will appreciate substantially when interest rates go higher. That would also finally mean more inflation. Higher interest rates, contrary to normal economic thought, would help both inflation and asset class appreciation. That's just my view. We can all have ideas, the nice thing is the market will prove us right or wrong, not the input from the characters on Rivals. Good luck.

 

[rgc7]

rgc7, just this remembrance, when the market is going higher, "there is noone more bullish than a sold out bull" . My 22,000 call was simply based on a technical count and read of the market at that time. My suspicion and feeling has changed a little. I do not think we are in a bubble, the fundamentals are driving the pricing, i.e. profits. I've always felt that what we experienced with the Obama market was simply a 8 year sideways market, held in check by horrible studership of the economy, disastrous over regulations, and artificially low interest rates coupled very sluggish European economies.

After the election the first 1,500 point move (up to 19,500 from 18,100 or so), in my view, was a "thank god Hillary lost" adjustment. Driven mostly on the knowledge Trump would roll back terrible regulations. Now the move, from 19,500 up is motivated by less government regulations, a reinvigorated European market and the hope for tax reform and infrastructure. Which may or may not happen. Having said that, all things considered, I think the market will grid up to 23,000 this year. A typical market retracement, or pause that refreshes, correction is 10-12%, if ignited by an outside event (war, terrorism etc.,) the pull back could be very violent and occur over a much shorter period of time. Keep in mind a Dow pull back of 12% - 15% from 23,000 is 2,700 to 3,450 + points. From 23,000 that would put it back to the point the move, post election and Hillary's loss, started - 19,500. Which in that area is important - 19,200 tp 19,500.

What will be frightening, my suspicion, would be the violence of the pull back, happening in 10 - 20 days. So be ready, it might take 6-8 more months for that to happen. I'm a contrarian trader and believe asset classes will appreciate substantially when interest rates go higher. That would also finally mean more inflation. Higher interest rates, contrary to normal economic thought, would help both inflation and asset class appreciation. That's just my view. We can all have ideas, the nice thing is the market will prove us right or wrong, not the input from the characters on Rivals. Good luck.

Thanks Howard it is always good reading your thoughts, and you make some good points. I was sitting on some hugh profits on stock ( using margin as well as cash ) that I accumulated close to the bottom and held until my projected high of 19000 +| - .
I then eliminated about 85 % of my portfolio and all margin.
You were right on the money with your 22000 projection, and I hope you are correct with your thoughts
Today. If so, the profits on my 15 % that I still have in the market should also show me some very nice
Profits.
I think that we will eventually have a Benjamin Graham , Return to the Mean type pull back, and then
A great buying opportunity ? And a relatively large Band of a trading range. I think that this Band can be a longer term rising Band, rather than another large large leg up, and can indeed reach much higher highs in line with your projected new highs ?
I like our Presidents economic agenda , hopefully he can get it passed relatively quickly ? That would indeed
Be good for the economy and the Market in general.
However, there are some nagative catalysts ( Iran, NK, the " Russian Witch Hunt " , etc ) that can lead to a dramatic Market Fall !
One other thing that bothers me is that I see a great deal of Optimism and abosolutely no fear or Caution !
PE, s are relatively high and dividend yields are very low compared to the buying opportunities that existed
Near the bottom of this incredible Bull Market !
If I had bigger Cajones, I would put out some short positions, but looking at my model watch lists.
I have been seeing sharp pull backs, and then equally large recovery moves to the upside. Talk about
Getting whipsawed ! Going against this trend is like stepping in front of a freight train !
All of my short puts should expire worthless, so I will resell them again in January, and use those funds
to increase my long stock positions.
Always great hearing your views Howard, keep in touch !