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OSU opens up -3 (3 point favorite)

chaseball

chaseball

I've posted how many times?
Sep 8, 2007
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The last time an ND line opened up this close to a top 5 team in F+ was back in 2012 vs Alabama in the BCS championship game and that line was -7

This season has been bizarre all around. The SEC has dominated college football for much of the last decade, yet the SEC have gotten off to a slow start in interconference play with a losing record. The tier 1 seem more vulnerable than ever this year as well. ND has a QB who by any account looks legit after destroying any and all opposition through 4 games.

We've had to wait until a quarter of the way through the new season to FINALLY run into a team not ranked in the bottom of the FBS, but it is finally here. And in a total shocker oddsmakers don't see much separation between OSU and ND.

Based on NDs track record, if i'm looking at this purely objectively, i'm taking OSU -3 for easy money. But as a fan, i'll of course be rooting for an ND victory. Can't wait for saturday!
 
Fightingirish595 said:
FWIW. Notre dame is 4th in SP+ with a 26.4 Ohio state is 1st with 30.3
Click to expand...
SP+ is 1-half of the F+ system (the other half is FEI). Are you subscribed to ESPN Insider? I'm not so I can't see the SP+ rankings in isolation.
 
Fightingirish595 said:
Yes. ND went from 11th to 4th. In SP+
Click to expand...
That is a really positive development -- we should be expecting a big jump in F+ as well then.

The last time ND was anywhere near top 5 in F+ was back in 2017 (6 years ago) after they destroyed every team on their schedule and lost by 1 possession to the eventual SEC champions (Georgia) through the first 8 weeks of that season.

They ultimately fell off a cliff after their Miami loss though and finished somewhere in the mid-teens.
 
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chaseball said:
That is a really positive development -- we should be expecting a big jump in F+ as well then.

The last time ND was anywhere near top 5 in F+ was back in 2017 (6 years ago) after they destroyed every team on their schedule and lost by 1 possession to the eventual SEC champions (Georgia) through the first 8 weeks of that season.

They ultimately fell off a cliff after their Miami loss though and finished somewhere in the mid-teens.
Click to expand...
Who cares where we are. Worst ranking system out there.

Nc state is a top 30ish team
 
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Which oddsmaker were you looking at? I just checked vegasinsider, which lists a few of them, and they're showing everything from ND +8.5 to ND +1.5. I've never seen the different betting sites have that much variance, so I'm guessing there's some sort of error on vegasinsider.

I think most people would have predicted OSU to beat us by at least 2 scores in the preseason, so these lines are all encouraging to see.
 
I think using power ranking systems & formula's for the NFL where the talent disparity is pretty even between the best & worse teams in the league but I just dont subscribe to it in CFB. It's just to large a group size with too big of a talent gap. In CFB you really do have to rely on the good old fashion eye test & head to head match ups.
 
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Juniper_Run said:
Which oddsmaker were you looking at? I just checked vegasinsider, which lists a few of them, and they're showing everything from ND +8.5 to ND +1.5. I've never seen the different betting sites have that much variance, so I'm guessing there's some sort of error on vegasinsider.

I think most people would have predicted OSU to beat us by at least 2 scores in the preseason, so these lines are all encouraging to see.
Click to expand...
After Sam Hartman arrived and CJ Stroud departed, which was last January, no one with any credibility would have predicted in the pre-season Ohio State over Notre Dame at home by "...at least 2 scores."
 
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Juniper_Run said:
Which oddsmaker were you looking at? I just checked vegasinsider, which lists a few of them, and they're showing everything from ND +8.5 to ND +1.5. I've never seen the different betting sites have that much variance, so I'm guessing there's some sort of error on vegasinsider.

I think most people would have predicted OSU to beat us by at least 2 scores in the preseason, so these lines are all encouraging to see.
Click to expand...
The consensus on vegas insider is OSU -3.5. It did open at -8.5 yesterday, with a consensus of -7.5, at those lines the money was clearly moving to ND.

Draftkings opened at -3.5
 
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ND is a 6 pt favorite in my opinion. But I don’t bet at all.
 
sjb75 said:
After Sam Hartman arrived and CJ Stroud departed, which was last January, no one with any credibility would have predicted in the pre-season Ohio State over Notre Dame at home by "...at least 2 scores."
Click to expand...
But what if those two scores were safeties?
 
Patrirish said:
Then declare them a 5 TD favorite since you have nothing to lose !
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When you offer your opinion, do you give your most ridiculous thoughts or do you respectfully offer something that you feel might reasonably reflect an actual outcome. Do all of your opinionss rely on an exchange of something of value?
What an odd character you must be🤔
 
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d1042 said:
When you offer your opinion, do you give your most ridiculous thoughts or do you respectfully offer something that you feel might reasonably reflect an actual outcome. Do all of your opinionss rely on an exchange of something of value?
What an odd character you must be🤔
Click to expand...

Pat thinks he’s Chuck Norris
 
Hmmm... ND to score 35 points D is solid and 3 more picks/turnovers. I think D plays their best game and holds OSU to 28 or less! Estime puts his name in the mix for Heisman with a blockbuster performance... Hartmann 250-300 yds 2-3 TD's
 
d1042 said:
When you offer your opinion, do you give your most ridiculous thoughts or do you respectfully offer something that you feel might reasonably reflect an actual outcome. Do all of your opinionss rely on an exchange of something of value?
What an odd character you must be🤔
Click to expand...
Anyone, including morons can offer their opinions !

I greatly respect those who have the courage of their convictions, those who back up their opinions.

Now if you told us that you bet $ 100 and got 10 to 1 odds by betting ND -6 I’d have a great deal of respect for your opinion because you backed your opinion up by putting your hard cash on the line.

But when you opine what appears to be a wild prediction and you don’t back it up by putting your money at risk, then I have no respect for your opinion.

And, I’d venture to say that others probably agree with me.

Yes, you’re correct, I’m unique !😜
 
d1042 said:
So guys, I leave this discussion and this character to you guys; he is an odd one!
Click to expand...

You’re not alone. Pat is a real character for sure. He took the “answer questions with at least three more questions even if they’re dumb” route in life. I’ll bet his wife loves him though.

Pat’s wife: What would you like for dinner?

Pat: Why don’t you know what I want for dinner? What time will dinner be served? Are the vegetables going on the left, or the right side of the plate?​


Pat’s wife: Uhhhh

Pat: Why can’t you answer the questions? Are you pausing because you are not sure how to cook what I want? Do you not know whether to cook it for 30 minutes or do you think 35 minutes would be required?​


Pat’s wife still wondering what he actually wants to eat: Wha???

Pat: You idiot. This shouldn’t be too hard for even a child to answer ​

 
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Listening to the usual OSU pundits and prognosticators. There is a couple of themes that are common...First, they are "dismissive" of ND. That is....OSU is going to win....but ND is better than they usually are. Moreso....Hartman is a journeyman NFL wannabe..... But....They discount ND's weapons on offense a great deal. Secondly.....OSU is "holding back" and will unveil a weapon of war that ND hasn't seen or heard of in this game...i.e. the wide receivers are going to reign hell on the Irish. This is the soft but clear message from the OSU side.
 
NotreDomer1 said:
You’re not alone. Pat is a real character for sure. He took the “answer questions with at least three more questions even if they’re dumb” route in life. I’ll bet his wife loves him though.

Pat’s wife: What would you like for dinner?

Pat: Why don’t you know what I want for dinner? What time will dinner be served? Are the vegetables going on the left, or the right side of the plate?​


Pat’s wife: Uhhhh

Pat: Why can’t you answer the questions? Are you pausing because you are not sure how to cook what I want? Do you not know whether to cook it for 30 minutes or do you think 35 minutes would be required?​


Pat’s wife still wondering what he actually wants to eat: Wha???

Pat: You idiot. This shouldn’t be too hard for even a child to answer ​

Click to expand...


My spectacular, beautiful and young wife, who I nicknamed “Fahrenheit” because she was perfect 98.6 % of the time, recently died after suffering for years from the ugliest and cruelest form of cancer, a High Grade Glioma, a cloud like brain tumor.

My wife was a great cook and I ate whatever she made and whenever she said it was going to be ready.

And I never called her an “idiot”, I reserved that description for those of you on this site who meet that criterion !
And you know who you are !
 
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Patrirish said:
My spectacular, beautiful and young wife, who I nicknamed “Fahrenheit” because she was perfect 98.6 % of the time, recently died after suffering for years from the ugliest and cruelest form of cancer, a High Grade Glioma, a cloud like brain tumor.

My wife was a great cook and I ate whatever she made and whenever she said it was going to be ready.

And I never called her an “idiot”, I reserved that description for those of you on this site who meet that criterion !
And you know who you are !
Click to expand...

From the depths of my heart, I’m sorry for your loss Pat. That sucks to hear
 
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NotreDomer1 said:
From the depths of my heart, I’m sorry for your loss Pat. That sucks to hear
Click to expand...
Hey, don’t worry and no need to apologize, I completely understand, you had no way of knowing.

I know that you were just trying to make a humorous comment at my expense and I don’t have any issue with your post or you.

But this does prove my point on the Mel Tucker thread.
I think it emphasizes the need to have the facts before rendering judgement
 
chaseball said:
The last time an ND line opened up this close to a top 5 team in F+ was back in 2012 vs Alabama in the BCS championship game and that line was -7

This season has been bizarre all around. The SEC has dominated college football for much of the last decade, yet the SEC have gotten off to a slow start in interconference play with a losing record. The tier 1 seem more vulnerable than ever this year as well. ND has a QB who by any account looks legit after destroying any and all opposition through 4 games.

We've had to wait until a quarter of the way through the new season to FINALLY run into a team not ranked in the bottom of the FBS, but it is finally here. And in a total shocker oddsmakers don't see much separation between OSU and ND.

Based on NDs track record, if i'm looking at this purely objectively, i'm taking OSU -3 for easy money. But as a fan, i'll of course be rooting for an ND victory. Can't wait for saturday!
Click to expand...

I think I told you Ohio State would be a -3.5 favorite two weeks ago.

People laugh at Sagarin, but his predictive lines are spot on.
 
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Domers will be Nutcrackers👍!

defending%20big%2012%20champs_zpsrnmqmswn.png
 
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chaseball said:
You did but F+ > Sagarin

F+ is simply way more comprehensive.
Click to expand...
Sorry, any system that has:
Alabama ranked 6th, ahead of Texas who beat them soundly.
Clemson ahead of Duke where Duke beat Clemson convincingly.
Colorado ranked 77 behind teams like UTSA, James Madison, Toledo, Troy, Liberty, Louisiana, South Alabama, Marshall, Rutgers, Purdue, and Nebraska
IS A COMPLETELY FLAWED SYSTEM!!

Let's hear your defense of garbage F+ because with what I've pointed out above it is a complete garbage system and deservedly named F+
 
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Patrirish said:
My spectacular, beautiful and young wife, who I nicknamed “Fahrenheit” because she was perfect 98.6 % of the time, recently died after suffering for years from the ugliest and cruelest form of cancer, a High Grade Glioma, a cloud like brain tumor.

My wife was a great cook and I ate whatever she made and whenever she said it was going to be ready.

And I never called her an “idiot”, I reserved that description for those of you on this site who meet that criterion !
And you know who you are !
Click to expand...
Truly sorry to hear that. Truly sorry. I will send prayers your way, for those who bear the loss of someone who from your brief description was a kind compassionate loving person. Bless you, and your family.
 
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F+ has Colorado Ranked 77th! That's all you need to know about this ranking system. 😂

I almost feel like F+ is a parody of the real college football ranking system out there, similar to how the onion is parody to the news.
Poor chase bought into the faux system.
 
NDinNJ said:
F+ has Colorado Ranked 77th! That's all you need to know about this ranking system. 😂

I almost feel like F+ is a parody of the real college football ranking system out there, similar to how the onion is parody to the news.
Poor chase bought into the faux system.
Click to expand...
And that’s exactly why they are getting 21 from oregon this week.

Colorado rightfully isn’t getting a lot of respect in the market. They got exposed by a team who is almost last in the same predictive models.
 
Fightingirish595 said:
And that’s exactly why they are getting 21 from oregon this week.

Colorado rightfully isn’t getting a lot of respect in the market. They got exposed by a team who is almost last in the same predictive models.
Click to expand...
Ok Chase
 
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