ND's Clear Path to the CFP

[Irish Grandeur]

This is all predicated on ND being ranked one spot ahead of OSU, and Wisky not in the Top 4.

1. ND must win out and have a 'statement' game against Stanford.
2. Bama must beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl and UGA in the SECCG
3. Miami must beat Clemson (blow-out is best) in the ACCCG.
4. OU has to lose another game (not absolutely necessary).
5. OSU has to beat Wisky in the B1GCG.

These are all very realistic and ND would be right back in the mix. ND would have a 4-2 record against the current Top 25 and would likely boost ND in over OSU if OU doesn't lose and guarantee ND a spot if OU loses another game.

 

[Irish2684]

So it would be Bama, Miami, ND, and OSU?? Only issue I have with this is why wouldn't Georgia be in ahead of ND?? They beat them head to head something the committee takes into consideration very highly and it was in South Bend.

In your scenario it would be 1 Bama 2 Miami- Then ND, OSU, and Georgia for the last two spots? OSU would have a BIG 10 Championship, and Georgia would have the head to head. I don't see it. But it's possible.

 

[Irish Grandeur]

I was of the belief that a later loss for UGA combined with a 'statement' win against Stanford would sway the panel for ND. Another thought was the question if the panel would put two from the same conference over a ND team that went 4-2 in the current Top 25.

 

[Irish2684]

Lets say Bama, Oklahoma, and Miami all win out, they are all in. In my opinion Miami beating Clemson will be ND's only chance to sneak into the last spot. So if that happens there will be one spot for the committee to choose between Clemson, Wisconsin, Georgia, ND, and Ohio State. I'll play it out a bit.

CLEMSON- loses to Miami and finishes 11-2. Would be 2-2 vs today's top 25. Top 25 wins vs Auburn and NC State, two losses to Miami and Syracuse. Multiple things go ND's way here. Both lost to Miami, both beat NC State with ND dominating them more, ND has a better second loss, ND would be 4-2 vs today's top 25 compared to Clemson being 2-2. And their 11th win would most likely be thrown out because it's against a D1AA team which the committee won't count. In my opinion ND moves ahead of Clemson.

WISCONSIN- to me it's easy with this team. If they lose one game ND will move ahead of them. Their schedule is to weak and would only have 1 win vs today's top 25. Again ND moves ahead of them if they lose one game.

GEORGIA- this is the team that I feel keeps ND out even if things fall their way but I'll play it out anyway. Georgia loses to Bama in the SEC Champ game and finishes at 11-2. They would be 2-2 vs todays top 25 with wins vs ND and Miss State, and loses to Auburn and Bama. Both of those losses are good losses and the head to head win vs ND is of course huge. So the resumes would be ND at 4-2 vs the top 25 and Georgia at 2-2 vs the top 25. In my opinion Georgia would get in ahead of ND because of the head to head.

OHIO STATE- if they win out beating Mich and Wisconsin down the stretch to win the BIG 10 this would be a toss up. They would be 3-2 vs the top 25, and possibly 4-2 if Michigan beats Wisconsin this week. If Wisconsin beats Michigan this week then UM wouldn't be a top 25 win for Ohio State. Wins would be vs Penn State, Mich State, and Wisconsin. Losses would be to Oklahoma and a blow out vs Iowa. The big thing here would be OSU winning the BIG 10 which will mean something. I think OSU would get in ahead of ND.

With that being said and if plays out like that I think it would be Bama, Miami, Oklahoma, and Ohio State. So here's what I think ND really needs.

Wisconsin to lose to Michigan this week and then beat OSU in the Conf champ game. But what happens if Mich beats Wisconsin this week then beats OSU the week after? Who from the Big 10 East plays in the title game? I don't know the answer to that question. If it was any other team other than OSU the BIG 10 would be left out of the playoff. Hate to say it but lets go Big Blue!!

Next ND needs Oklahoma to lose one more game. In my opinion ND doesn't deserve to get in after that debacle in South Florida but they have a very good resume if they win out and feel there's still a chance. A lot of football left to be played.

 

[twalsh]

So it would be Bama, Miami, ND, and OSU?? Only issue I have with this is why wouldn't Georgia be in ahead of ND?? They beat them head to head something the committee takes into consideration very highly and it was in South Bend.

In your scenario it would be 1 Bama 2 Miami- Then ND, OSU, and Georgia for the last two spots? OSU would have a BIG 10 Championship, and Georgia would have the head to head. I don't see it. But it's possible.

At this point, we need Georgia to lose to either Kentucky or Georgia Tech, neither of which are impossible, then lose in the SECCG.

 

[Irish2684]

If what the original poster stated happens they will have a shot. Miami and Bama would be in and you could have ND, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma and you could even throw in USC as teams with two losses vying for 2 spots. I'm not counting a one lose Wisc team because of their weak schedule in the mix. Let's see how it shakes out but ND's resume would stack up nicely vs any of those teams. Things it would have against it is OSU, Oklahoma, and USC could have two losses but a conference title, and Georgia has the head to head.

 

[Kelso86]

Let's say that ND simply needs to focus on Navy this week and then Stanford next week -- cannot control anything else.

In all probability, ND is out of the playoffs -- a fantastic finish would be 10-2, and a spot in the Cotton Bowl. And then cap off the season with a solid victory there.

 

[justified1]

ND cannot end the 2017 season with a loss and leave fans feeling it was a successful season.

 

[scubastevefl]

ND is not a playoff caliber team in 2017, playoff teams don't get blown out. (That includes Ohio State). ND needs to worry about winning a major bowl for the first time in 23 years (1994 Cotton Bowl), Cotton, Fiesta, Orange or Peach this year, this team is a year away.

 

[topdecktiger]

CLEMSON- loses to Miami and finishes 11-2. Would be 2-2 vs today's top 25. Top 25 wins vs Auburn and NC State, two losses to Miami and Syracuse. Multiple things go ND's way here. Both lost to Miami, both beat NC State with ND dominating them more, ND has a better second loss, ND would be 4-2 vs today's top 25 compared to Clemson being 2-2. And their 11th win would most likely be thrown out because it's against a D1AA team which the committee won't count. In my opinion ND moves ahead of Clemson.

Syracuse isn't in the top 25. You keep saying Clemson would be 2-2 against the top 25. That's inaccurate, because Syracuse isn't ranked. That would put Clemson at 2-1 vs current top 25.

 

[twalsh]

ND is not a playoff caliber team in 2017, playoff teams don't get blown out. (That includes Ohio State).

And Georgia, I guess. Geez, we're running out of teams for the playoffs.

 

[DieHard_Irish]

I’m with scuba, let’s just win out convincingly and let the chips fall where they may. I would say, given the ass kicking we took in FL, we don’t deserve it, but neither does tOSU

 

[john0gaunt]

For anyone saying this team is one year away...I think the NFL is going to be taking more than the normal share of our young players this year..which I’m on record as being against. But there are a lot of knee problems in the league this year and lots of those guys are gonna be replaced.

 

[IRISHJD98]

 

[NDCap]

I see ND playing in the Cotton Bowl . My Guess vs. Ok state or Oklahoma loser in the Bi12 championship game. Also see Clemson/ Miami loser vs OSU/ Central Florida / Auburn in Orange Bowl . UCFvs Miami would interesting matchup.

 

[justified1]

Clemson enjoys the perception that it has the potential to play dominating defense.
Any questions about Clemson and Miami will be resolved in the ACC championship.
Only 1 goes to the playoff.

 

[TigersProw1]

Or you guys could just join a conference and play your way in like everyone else.

 

[twalsh]

Or you guys could just join a conference and play your way in like everyone else.

If not having a 13th game is currently a disadvantage for us, how would we be worse off if we played in a conference? Wouldn't that be better for us?

 

[IRISHJD98]

If not having a 13th game is currently a disadvantage for us, how would we be worse off if we played in a conference? Wouldn't that be better for us?

He's just trolling. Pretty sure the lack of a 13th conference championship game didn't keep tOSU out of the playoffs last year.

 

[hoopsstar12]

Pitt can beat Miami. Navy can beat ND. There is no chance of ND beating Stanford convincingly. ND has the athletic ability for playoffs but not coaching ability.

 

[Irish Grandeur]

There's a path for ND and several other two-loss teams. If ND can get back to mid-season form then they get the nod, IMO. Guess we'll see how much improvement Balis (sp?) is making in year one.

 

[notredamerises23]

This is all predicated on ND being ranked one spot ahead of OSU, and Wisky not in the Top 4.

1. ND must win out and have a 'statement' game against Stanford.
2. Bama must beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl and UGA in the SECCG
3. Miami must beat Clemson (blow-out is best) in the ACCCG.
4. OU has to lose another game (not absolutely necessary).
5. OSU has to beat Wisky in the B1GCG.

These are all very realistic and ND would be right back in the mix. ND would have a 4-2 record against the current Top 25 and would likely boost ND in over OSU if OU doesn't lose and guarantee ND a spot if OU loses another game.

I was thinking about this the other day. It’s not likely to happen, but not impossibly low odds, either. The CFP committee rewarded ND for its dominant play up until a one-off really bad might. If you look at ESPN’s FPI and total efficiencies, ND is still solidly top 8.

 

[beachcardinal]

There's a path for ND and several other two-loss teams. If ND can get back to mid-season form then they get the nod, IMO. Guess we'll see how much improvement Balis (sp?) is making in year one.

A two loss Auburn team won it all but...there is no chance that a two loss team without a championship game will get in...none. 11-2 beats 10-2 every time.

 

[NIN Irish]

A two loss Auburn team won it all but...there is no chance that a two loss team without a championship game will get in...none. 11-2 beats 10-2 every time.

Does 11-2 beat 10-2 every time when the 11 includes wins against The Citadel or other cupcakes like Mercer, and the 10-2 includes no games against lower division teams?

 

[TOMMY_23]

ND has no shot. They’ll get bumped by OSU. They could have a statement game versus Wisconsin.

After watching what happened last weekend, why would anyone want to watch ND lose 52-0 versus Bama in the CFP?

 

[bizzybecknd]

ND is not a playoff caliber team in 2017, playoff teams don't get blown out. (That includes Ohio State). ND needs to worry about winning a major bowl for the first time in 23 years (1994 Cotton Bowl), Cotton, Fiesta, Orange or Peach this year, this team is a year away.

Do playoff caliber teams lose to Syracuse or Iowa St?

 

[beachcardinal]

Does 11-2 beat 10-2 every time when the 11 includes wins against The Citadel or other cupcakes like Mercer, and the 10-2 includes no games against lower division teams?

yes, every year.

 

[NIN Irish]

yes, every year.

Well, hopefully the committee doesn't value wins against FCS teams more so as FBS teams as you say every year.

 

[beachcardinal]

Well, hopefully the committee doesn't value wins against FCS teams more so as FBS teams as you say every year.

I wish you were right but the SEC gets way with 8 homes games, limited travel distance and playing tomato cans very year.

 

[justified1]

Well if someone would just beat the snot out of the SEC / ACC teams then who cares how many cupcakes they play. Beat them.

 

[hayaka]

A two loss Auburn team won it all but...there is no chance that a two loss team without a championship game will get in...none. 11-2 beats 10-2 every time.

When did a two loss Auburn team "win it all?" If you're referring to the 2010 Cam Newton team, they were undefeated.

I can't think of any other Auburn team that won the MNC in the last 50 or 60 years, two losses or not. Are you thinking perhaps of the 2013 team? They lost to FSU in the title game.

 

[topdecktiger]

Does 11-2 beat 10-2 every time when the 11 includes wins against The Citadel or other cupcakes like Mercer, and the 10-2 includes no games against lower division teams?

The committee simply doesn't look at this issue the way that you do. They look at your overall strength of schedule, overall record, wins over ranked teams, and things like that. Then if given teams are similar, they look at things like conference championships. The committee simply doesn't have "penalties" like you imagine, such as losing to a poor team, or playing a AA opponent.

 

[Irish Grandeur]

When did a two loss Auburn team "win it all?" If you're referring to the 2010 Cam Newton team, they were undefeated.

I can't think of any other Auburn team that won the MNC in the last 50 or 60 years, two losses or not. Are you thinking perhaps of the 2013 team? They lost to FSU in the title game.

Probably talking about the two-loss LSU team that won a championship.

 

[NIN Irish]

The committee simply doesn't look at this issue the way that you do. They look at your overall strength of schedule, overall record, wins over ranked teams, and things like that. Then if given teams are similar, they look at things like conference championships. The committee simply doesn't have "penalties" like you imagine, such as losing to a poor team, or playing a AA opponent.

I never mentioned how I look at it, nor do I look at how you assume.

 

[hayaka]

Probably talking about the two-loss LSU team that won a championship.

Yeah, that must be it.

 

[Okie70]

Good stuff. From a nervous OU fan. Who was actually at Owen Field 60 years ago cheering for your team. Catholic kid. Who did not get converted by Wilkinson until '61. If OU wins out I think they are in. Obvious. But no sure thing beating TCU, or even worse, Okie State twice. You guys play our OSU in the Cotton Bowl it will be rough. But maybe a two loss team gets in. Hell, LSU did it 10 years ago.

 

[rivals50]

I guess you are all dying to see a another beatdown by Bama. Come on after losing by 41-8 we have no business talking or being in playoffs..

 

[TDIrish27]

Agreed

The OP's scenario could also be influenced by GT or UK beating Georgia and then Bama beating them in SEC Title Game

A scenario where Wisky loses to Michigan and Minn and beats OSU could also have a real effect on CFP------but it ain't happening.

 

[Irish2684]

One week at a time. Let's have Michigan beat Wisconsin this week and ND will move up to #7. Next week there are games galore that could benefit ND moving up if they beat Stanford. Beat the Trees and have some chaos and move up to #5 after next weekends games. After that all they would need is either Oklahoma or Clemson to lose on Championship weekend to sneak in.

 

[mbd11]

Our best bet would be if Michigan beats Ohio State, and then a 3-loss Ohio State beating Wisconsin and winning the Big Ten. That would effectively knock out the Big Ten, and we could take care of the Pac-12 ourselves. That would leave ND fighting for the 4th spot with several non-conference winners from the SEC, ACC, etc.

But we need to win our last two games first.