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ND #10 in post-spring SP+ projections (published 05-21-24)

chaseball

chaseball

I've posted how many times?
Sep 8, 2007
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SP+ is 1-half of the F+ ranking system and the F+ ranking system uses these SP+ projections to determine team-quality early on in the season.

These projections take into account a schools last 4 or 5 years on the recruiting trail, the amount of returning production from the season prior, the latest transfer portal acquisitions, the football team's last 5 years of performance (recent years weighted more heavily), among some lesser components as well.
  • Most surprising to me is NDs #10 projected offense which is projected to be almost as good as their #9 defense.
  • The data is showing we have a really balanced team (offense AND defense) and an offense much better than a lot of people think but a defense that might not be as good as we thought as well (closer to #10 than #5).
  • ND has a total of TWO opponents in the top 25 (#13 A&M and #22 USC)
And another note, I've been posting these pre-season SP+ projections going back probably close to a decade now, and #10 is the highest I ever remember seeing Notre Dame ranked in this projection system (ND is usually in the 12-15th range).

ESPN’s post-spring SP+ projections (top 25)​

TEAMSP+OFF. SP+DEF. SP+ST SP+
1. Georgia36.347.3 (2)11.0 (5)0.7 (4)
2. Ohio St.32.736.6 (20)4.0 (1)0.5 (20)
3. Oregon30.848.0 (1)17.2 (14)-0.2 (85)
4. Texas29.545.4 (4)16.0 (12)0.5 (17)
5. Alabama29.143.7 (7)14.6 (8)0.7 (2)
6. Michigan27.532.9 (32)5.5 (3)0.6 (7)
7. Penn St.26.836.1 (23)9.3 (4)0.4 (28)
8. Ole Miss26.644.0 (6)17.4 (15)0.5 (26)
9. LSU25.147.2 (3)22.1 (35)-0.1 (83)
10. Notre Dame24.039.1 (10)15.1 (9)0.2 (53)
11. Missouri23.141.4 (8)18.3 (18)0.3 (45)
12. Florida St.21.436.9 (16)15.5 (10)0.6 (8)
13. Texas A&M19.838.5 (11)18.7 (21)0.0 (73)
14. Clemson19.837.0 (15)17.1 (13)0.1 (66)
15. Oklahoma19.336.9 (17)17.5 (16)-0.3 (95)
16. Tennessee19.037.5 (14)18.5 (19)0.2 (52)
17. Kansas St.16.836.5 (21)19.7 (28)-0.3 (91)
18. Utah16.131.7 (39)15.6 (11)0.4 (34)
19. Miami14.436.9 (18)22.5 (36)0.7 (3)
20. Oklahoma St.13.737.8 (13)24.0 (41)0.3 (42)
21. USC13.644.0 (5)30.5 (87)-0.4 (100)
22. Iowa13.217.9 (117)4.7 (2)0.4 (30)
23. SMU12.936.3 (22)23.4 (39)-0.4 (99)
24. Arizona12.738.1 (12)25.4 (49)0.0 (79)
25. Kentucky12.433.5 (31)21.1 (31)0.4 (39)

This is a premium/pay walled article:
www.espn.com

Post-spring SP+ rankings: Who moved up after the portal and spring practice

With the 2024 portal cycle and spring football in the books, it's time to look at the updated SP+ rankings for every team.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
Last edited:
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chaseball said:
SP+ is 1-half of the F+ ranking system and the F+ ranking system uses these SP+ projections to determine team-quality early on in the season.

These projections take into account a schools last 4 or 5 years on the recruiting trail, the amount of returning production from the season prior, the latest transfer portal acquisitions, the football team's last 5 years of performance (recent years weighted more heavily), among some lesser components as well.
  • Most surprising to me is NDs #10 projected offense which is projected to be almost as good as their #9 defense.
  • The data is showing we have a really balanced team (offense AND defense) and an offense much better than a lot of people think but a defense that might not be as good as we thought as well (closer to #10 than #5).
  • ND has a total of TWO opponents in the top 25 (#13 A&M and #22 USC)
And another note, I've been posting these pre-season SP+ projections going back probably close to a decade now, and #10 is the highest I ever remember seeing Notre Dame ranked in this projection system (ND is usually in the 12-15th range).

ESPN’s post-spring SP+ projections (top 25)​

TEAMSP+OFF. SP+DEF. SP+ST SP+
1. Georgia36.347.3 (2)11.0 (5)0.7 (4)
2. Ohio St.32.736.6 (20)4.0 (1)0.5 (20)
3. Oregon30.848.0 (1)17.2 (14)-0.2 (85)
4. Texas29.545.4 (4)16.0 (12)0.5 (17)
5. Alabama29.143.7 (7)14.6 (8)0.7 (2)
6. Michigan27.532.9 (32)5.5 (3)0.6 (7)
7. Penn St.26.836.1 (23)9.3 (4)0.4 (28)
8. Ole Miss26.644.0 (6)17.4 (15)0.5 (26)
9. LSU25.147.2 (3)22.1 (35)-0.1 (83)
10. Notre Dame24.039.1 (10)15.1 (9)0.2 (53)
11. Missouri23.141.4 (8)18.3 (18)0.3 (45)
12. Florida St.21.436.9 (16)15.5 (10)0.6 (8)
13. Texas A&M19.838.5 (11)18.7 (21)0.0 (73)
14. Clemson19.837.0 (15)17.1 (13)0.1 (66)
15. Oklahoma19.336.9 (17)17.5 (16)-0.3 (95)
16. Tennessee19.037.5 (14)18.5 (19)0.2 (52)
17. Kansas St.16.836.5 (21)19.7 (28)-0.3 (91)
18. Utah16.131.7 (39)15.6 (11)0.4 (34)
19. Miami14.436.9 (18)22.5 (36)0.7 (3)
20. Oklahoma St.13.737.8 (13)24.0 (41)0.3 (42)
21. USC13.644.0 (5)30.5 (87)-0.4 (100)
22. Iowa13.217.9 (117)4.7 (2)0.4 (30)
23. SMU12.936.3 (22)23.4 (39)-0.4 (99)
24. Arizona12.738.1 (12)25.4 (49)0.0 (79)
25. Kentucky12.433.5 (31)21.1 (31)0.4 (39)

This is a premium/pay walled article:
www.espn.com

Post-spring SP+ rankings: Who moved up after the portal and spring practice

With the 2024 portal cycle and spring football in the books, it's time to look at the updated SP+ rankings for every team.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
Click to expand...

So LSU lost the Heisman trophy QB, all their receivers and have the projected #3 offense. yeah, OK. LOL
 
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chaseball said:
SP+ is 1-half of the F+ ranking system and the F+ ranking system uses these SP+ projections to determine team-quality early on in the season.

These projections take into account a schools last 4 or 5 years on the recruiting trail, the amount of returning production from the season prior, the latest transfer portal acquisitions, the football team's last 5 years of performance (recent years weighted more heavily), among some lesser components as well.
  • Most surprising to me is NDs #10 projected offense which is projected to be almost as good as their #9 defense.
  • The data is showing we have a really balanced team (offense AND defense) and an offense much better than a lot of people think but a defense that might not be as good as we thought as well (closer to #10 than #5).
  • ND has a total of TWO opponents in the top 25 (#13 A&M and #22 USC)
And another note, I've been posting these pre-season SP+ projections going back probably close to a decade now, and #10 is the highest I ever remember seeing Notre Dame ranked in this projection system (ND is usually in the 12-15th range).

ESPN’s post-spring SP+ projections (top 25)​

TEAMSP+OFF. SP+DEF. SP+ST SP+
1. Georgia36.347.3 (2)11.0 (5)0.7 (4)
2. Ohio St.32.736.6 (20)4.0 (1)0.5 (20)
3. Oregon30.848.0 (1)17.2 (14)-0.2 (85)
4. Texas29.545.4 (4)16.0 (12)0.5 (17)
5. Alabama29.143.7 (7)14.6 (8)0.7 (2)
6. Michigan27.532.9 (32)5.5 (3)0.6 (7)
7. Penn St.26.836.1 (23)9.3 (4)0.4 (28)
8. Ole Miss26.644.0 (6)17.4 (15)0.5 (26)
9. LSU25.147.2 (3)22.1 (35)-0.1 (83)
10. Notre Dame24.039.1 (10)15.1 (9)0.2 (53)
11. Missouri23.141.4 (8)18.3 (18)0.3 (45)
12. Florida St.21.436.9 (16)15.5 (10)0.6 (8)
13. Texas A&M19.838.5 (11)18.7 (21)0.0 (73)
14. Clemson19.837.0 (15)17.1 (13)0.1 (66)
15. Oklahoma19.336.9 (17)17.5 (16)-0.3 (95)
16. Tennessee19.037.5 (14)18.5 (19)0.2 (52)
17. Kansas St.16.836.5 (21)19.7 (28)-0.3 (91)
18. Utah16.131.7 (39)15.6 (11)0.4 (34)
19. Miami14.436.9 (18)22.5 (36)0.7 (3)
20. Oklahoma St.13.737.8 (13)24.0 (41)0.3 (42)
21. USC13.644.0 (5)30.5 (87)-0.4 (100)
22. Iowa13.217.9 (117)4.7 (2)0.4 (30)
23. SMU12.936.3 (22)23.4 (39)-0.4 (99)
24. Arizona12.738.1 (12)25.4 (49)0.0 (79)
25. Kentucky12.433.5 (31)21.1 (31)0.4 (39)

This is a premium/pay walled article:
www.espn.com

Post-spring SP+ rankings: Who moved up after the portal and spring practice

With the 2024 portal cycle and spring football in the books, it's time to look at the updated SP+ rankings for every team.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
Click to expand...
I like content like this to digest, thanks for posting.

Only looking at LSU closely because they right next to ND - it seems odd we are 30 spots better on special teams, 26 spots better on defense, and only 7 spots weaker on offense, yet they have a better team?

Also, focusing on that 7 spots weaker offense - did they upgrade from Denbrock, did we upgrade from Parker, is that factored in?
 
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NotreDomer1 said:
So LSU lost the Heisman trophy QB, all their receivers and have the projected #3 offense. yeah, OK. LOL
Click to expand...
Sure.

The system takes into account recent results of your team (LSU produced the #3 offense last year in F+), it takes into account your recruiting classes with most recent classes weighted heaviest, as well as transfer portal acquisitions AND the production of the players returning from the previous season. Based on all of this criteria LSU is projected to have the #3 offense.

Maybe LSU skill positions/passing game takes a step back in '24 but the system could see their o-line and running game being much better.
 
Last edited:
mrwigglesby21 said:
I like content like this to digest, thanks for posting.

Only looking at LSU closely because they right next to ND - it seems odd we are 30 spots better on special teams, 26 spots better on defense, and only 7 spots weaker on offense, yet they have a better team?

Also, focusing on that 7 spots weaker offense - did they upgrade from Denbrock, did we upgrade from Parker, is that factored in?
Click to expand...
A few reasons:
  • coordinator hires aren't accounted for in the projection system since it's hard to quantify the production of a coordinator. coordinator hires tend to be more hype than substance in general though.
  • The overall SP+ projection score is an accumulation of how good your offense, defense, and special teams are projected to be (with each of these components weighted based on how important/impactful they are to winning)
  • and despite LSU "only" being projected 7 spots hire on offense they have a significantly higher offensive projection than ND does. The distance from ND (#10 offense) to LSU (#3 offense) is similar to the difference between NDs #10 offense and Utah's #39 offense. The closer you get to #1 the greater the standard deviation is.
 
Last edited:
Golson5 said:
Bad ranking with Michigan and LSU that high
Click to expand...
This isn't a ranking, its a projection.

A projection takes all the best numerical data/evidence available (recruiting classes, 85-man roster rank, production of players returning, performance of team over the last 5 years with recent years weighted heaviest, etc.) and then forecasts based on that evidence what the most likely scenario is going to be going forward.

There are limitations to the kind of automation in these systems but they are great at showing how each team currently stacks up based on the best available data
 
chaseball said:
This isn't a ranking, its a projection.

A projection takes all the best numerical data/evidence available (recruiting classes, 85-man roster rank, production of players returning, performance of team over the last 5 years with recent years weighted heaviest, etc.) and then forecasts based on that evidence what the most likely scenario is going to be going forward.

There are limitations to the kind of automation in these systems but they are great at showing how each team currently stacks up based on the best available data
Click to expand...
Bad ranking
 
What would be interesting would be a similar ranking system for each team’s coaching staff.

With all of these polls, what consequences do they face if they’re wrong ?

I’ve always favored Las Vegas’s predictions, since they incur consequences if they’re wrong
 
chaseball said:
SP+ is 1-half of the F+ ranking system and the F+ ranking system uses these SP+ projections to determine team-quality early on in the season.

These projections take into account a schools last 4 or 5 years on the recruiting trail, the amount of returning production from the season prior, the latest transfer portal acquisitions, the football team's last 5 years of performance (recent years weighted more heavily), among some lesser components as well.
  • Most surprising to me is NDs #10 projected offense which is projected to be almost as good as their #9 defense.
  • The data is showing we have a really balanced team (offense AND defense) and an offense much better than a lot of people think but a defense that might not be as good as we thought as well (closer to #10 than #5).
  • ND has a total of TWO opponents in the top 25 (#13 A&M and #22 USC)
And another note, I've been posting these pre-season SP+ projections going back probably close to a decade now, and #10 is the highest I ever remember seeing Notre Dame ranked in this projection system (ND is usually in the 12-15th range).

ESPN’s post-spring SP+ projections (top 25)​

TEAMSP+OFF. SP+DEF. SP+ST SP+
1. Georgia36.347.3 (2)11.0 (5)0.7 (4)
2. Ohio St.32.736.6 (20)4.0 (1)0.5 (20)
3. Oregon30.848.0 (1)17.2 (14)-0.2 (85)
4. Texas29.545.4 (4)16.0 (12)0.5 (17)
5. Alabama29.143.7 (7)14.6 (8)0.7 (2)
6. Michigan27.532.9 (32)5.5 (3)0.6 (7)
7. Penn St.26.836.1 (23)9.3 (4)0.4 (28)
8. Ole Miss26.644.0 (6)17.4 (15)0.5 (26)
9. LSU25.147.2 (3)22.1 (35)-0.1 (83)
10. Notre Dame24.039.1 (10)15.1 (9)0.2 (53)
11. Missouri23.141.4 (8)18.3 (18)0.3 (45)
12. Florida St.21.436.9 (16)15.5 (10)0.6 (8)
13. Texas A&M19.838.5 (11)18.7 (21)0.0 (73)
14. Clemson19.837.0 (15)17.1 (13)0.1 (66)
15. Oklahoma19.336.9 (17)17.5 (16)-0.3 (95)
16. Tennessee19.037.5 (14)18.5 (19)0.2 (52)
17. Kansas St.16.836.5 (21)19.7 (28)-0.3 (91)
18. Utah16.131.7 (39)15.6 (11)0.4 (34)
19. Miami14.436.9 (18)22.5 (36)0.7 (3)
20. Oklahoma St.13.737.8 (13)24.0 (41)0.3 (42)
21. USC13.644.0 (5)30.5 (87)-0.4 (100)
22. Iowa13.217.9 (117)4.7 (2)0.4 (30)
23. SMU12.936.3 (22)23.4 (39)-0.4 (99)
24. Arizona12.738.1 (12)25.4 (49)0.0 (79)
25. Kentucky12.433.5 (31)21.1 (31)0.4 (39)

This is a premium/pay walled article:
www.espn.com

Post-spring SP+ rankings: Who moved up after the portal and spring practice

With the 2024 portal cycle and spring football in the books, it's time to look at the updated SP+ rankings for every team.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
Click to expand...
Paralysis by analysis.
 
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