NC and playoff odds from ESPN

[Quix0te]

ESPN has released their FPI projections and the resulting season projections.
https://www.espn.com/college-footba...i-release-top-teams-new-playoff-format-trends

Top Teams By 2024 FPI National Championship Odds:

1. UGA – 20.7%, 78.7% to make CFP
2. UO – 12.9%, 75.6%
3. UT – 11.7%, 67.7%
4. OSU – 10.2%, 66.8%
5. AL – 8.4%, 56.7%
6. PSU – 6.7%, 58.9%
7. ND – 5.1%, 59.5%
8. OU – below 3.1%, below 40% from here down
9. TN
10. FSU
11. MO
12. UM

2024 Title Chances By Conference:

SEC – 52.5%
B10 – 32.3%
ACC – 6.0%
Ind. – 5.1%
B12 – 3.6%

Other lists:
* Odds Of Securing First-Round Bye In 2024 College Football Playoff
* Group Of 5 Odds To Send At Least 1 Team To Playoff (AAC > MWC > SB)
* Projected Top 20 College Programs In FPI For 2024
* Biggest Games On ’24 Schedule Based On Schools’ Combined Ratings (17 of 20 are B10 or SEC conf. games)
* 2024 Games With The Highest Leverage On CFP Odds (14 of 21 are B10 or SEC conf. games, 1 is B10 vs SEC)

 

[wfeldmann]

How does alabama and PSU have a lower chance of making the CFP, but a higher chance of winning the championship compared to ND?

 

[melstew]

How does alabama and PSU have a lower chance of making the CFP, but a higher chance of winning the championship compared to ND?

One possible reason is that if that if they win their conference they will only have to play 3 games.

 

[tbonesays]

How does alabama and PSU have a lower chance of making the CFP, but a higher chance of winning the championship compared to ND?

All three schools have the same chance of making the CFP statistically. There is now way the margin of error is less than 10%.

After that there is some conditional probabilities. If Bama wins the SEC they are probably the best team. IF Bama lost one game and didn't win the SEC, they could still be the best team.

The takeaway is that your schedule is the #1 predictor of national title chances. Making the playoff >>> being better than other playoff teams.