At the beginning of this year, many looked at ND as a serious candidate to make the College Football Playoff (CFP). It's been something of a rough ride thus far, but ND is still 3-0 with a very good chance of making it to the CFP if...
Now that @dhighducheck has slapped the Kool-Aid out of everyone's hands before they could take another sip, perhaps we can take a serious look at what it takes at the QB position to make it to the CFP. Dhigh has been way out in front of this since last year.
This isn't a statistical analysis, merely an analysis of the statistics.
Since the inception of the CFP there have been 4 iterations, each with 2 games, for a total of 8 games (there were 4 further games in the championship round but of course they include 2 of the 4 teams and the corresponding QBs from the playoff round) with two teams playing in each of the games for a total of 16 games. 9 different teams have participated in those 16 games. Here they are alphabetically followed by the number of times they've been in the CFP:
Alabama- 4
Clemson- 3
Florida State- 1
Georgia- 1
Michigan State- 1
Ohio State- 2
Oklahoma- 2
Oregon- 1
Washington- 1
Here are the individual years of the CFP. The winner of each respective game is listed first, followed by the team's QB and the QB's completion percentage for that individual game:
14-15
Oregon Marcus/Mariota (72.2) vs. Florida State/Jameis Winston (64.4)
Ohio State/Cardale Jones (51.4) vs. Alabama/Blake Sims (61.1)
Championship- Ohio State/Jones (69.5) vs Oregon/Mariota (64.8)
15-16
Clemson/DeShaun Watson (51.6) vs. Oklahoma/Baker Mayfield (63.4)
Alabama/Jake Coker (83.3) vs. Michigan State/Connor Cook (48.7)
Championship- Alabama/Coker (64) vs Clemson/Watson (63.8)
16-17
Clemson/DeShaun Watson (63.8) vs. Ohio State/JT Barrett (57.5)
Alabama/Jalen Hurts (50) vs. Washington/Jake Browning (52.6)
Championship- Clemson/Watson (64.2) vs. Alabama/Hurts (41.9)
17-18
Georgia/Jake Fromm (68.9) vs. Oklahoma/Baker Mayfield (65.7)
Alabama/Jalen Hurts (66.6) vs. Clemson/Kelly Bryant (50)
Championship- Alabama/Tua Tagovailoa (58.3) vs, Georgia/Fromm (50)
The team that had the QB with the higher completion percentage in the individual game won 5 of the 8 playoff games and all 4 of the championship games.
I was most interested in how these QBs did during the season leading up to making the CFP. I took the primary QBs in each year and/or the the QBs in the CFP/Championship games and looked at their performance over the course of the year. Here's a look in alphabetical order with the year or years they were in the CFP followed by their completion percentage for that year:
JT Barrett- 2014 (64.6); 2016 (61.5)
Jake Browning- 2016 (62.1)
Kelly Bryant- 2017 (65.8)
Jake Coker- 2015 (66.9)
Connor Cook- 2015 (56.1)
Jake Fromm- 2017 (62.2)
Jalen Hurts 2016 (62.8)
Cardale Jones- 2014 (60.9)
Marcus Mariota- 2014 (68.3)
Baker Mayfield- 2015 (68.1); 2017 (70.5)
Blake Sims- 2014 (64.5)
Tua Tagovailoa- 2017- 8 games and 77 pass attempts (63.6)
DeShaun Watson- 2015 (67.8); 2017 (67)
Jameis Winston- 2014 (65.3)
Braxton Miller- was the OSU starter in '14 but was injured. He played in one game in 2014 and made no pass attempts.
That same year OSU used JT Barrett through most of the year and Cardale Jones after Barrett was injured so I included both players. Likewise, I did the same for Alabama with Hurts and Tagovailoa last year.
In any set of statistics there is almost always an outlier, or statistical anomaly, that stands out from the rest. It's best to remove the outlier to get a more accurate set of data. Is this group, it's clearly Connor Cook in 2015. He's the only QB with a completion percentage under 60%..
Taking that sole exception from the group, no team has made it to the CFP with a QB that had a completion percentage under 60% and, thus far anyway, the team that has the QB that performs the most efficiently wins the CFP Championship.
To be certain, a team with a QB that has a 60+ completion percentage doesn't guarantee that you'll make the CFP (see DeShone Kizer, 2015 (62.9); Everett Golson, 2014 (60), but, given the past history of the CFP, it seems virtually impossible to get in without a QB that throws that efficiently.
That said, it's hard to understand how anyone could think it was a realistic possibility for a team to make the CFP with a QB who completed just over 49% of his passes. That's not to say it's Wimbush's fault either. He's very intelligent and very talented. They should be tailoring plays to his strengths and having him make high completion percentage throws and they've failed to do that. There was quite a bit of preseason handwringing that Wimbush wasn’t getting any love in the national QB rankings. The reason was simple: He’s not a very good/accurate passer, this is a passing game (and it ever shall be), and a casual analysis of the data above shows just how important that accuracy is if you want to play on the biggest stage.
As a point of historical reference, I always looked at Tim Tebow as the prototypical Wildcat QB, who moved the ball as many hoped Wimbush did. I looked back and I was really surprised at his completion percentages in his 3 years as a starter. Here they are:
2007- 66.9
2008- 64.4
2009- 67.8
Granted, he only averaged about 16 pass attempts per game, but he was accurate. Interestingly enough, he averaged almost the same number of rushes as passes in each respective year. Urban Meyer designed an offense around him that played to his strengths and they won. That’s what Kelly and Long need to do if they want to move this program ahead.
Speaking of Meyer, in that 2014 campaign he had 2 QBs who completed 60+ percent of their passes and a 3rd, Miller, who 63.5% the year before being injured in the opener. His current QB, Dwayne Haskins, has completed 72.5% of his passes thus far this year. If that stands, that will be the highest completion percentage among the aforementioned QBs, all of whom were damn good. Let that one sink in. Oh, and by the way, Haskins put up that number with Meyer (arguably the best coach in college football) out on suspension. That's not talent, that's scheme.
With that in mind, I’m not sure that BK can do that. He may be better served taking complete hands off approach to his QB and let the OC and QB Coach work with him. BK’s history of QB regression is well documented. I’m as big a BK fan as anyone and I can recall Tony Pike saying something to the effect that when BK got “his kind of QB” he was going to be a Heisman winner. Obviously, we haven’t seen that and I’m starting to doubt we ever will. Trust me when I tell you that I hate saying that.
I am not saying that Ian Book is a better overall option at QB than Wimbush but I am saying he’s the better, more accurate, passer. That’s settled science, if you will, as far as I’m concerned. Also, they seem to design plays well for Book that don’t overload him or exceed his capabilities. Maybe the QB platoon that we’ll see this weekend will work out, but I’m skeptical.
I will say that BK finally has the defense that he has lacked during his tenure her. He has some dynamic players on offense, and, although not as good as last year’s, his offensive line is very good. I would imagine that this is as good a chance as he’s had in the past 4 years to make the CFP, and it may be his best bet for the next two years as well until he he reloads the defense. It may be the wisest choice to simplify the offense and go with the better passer on a more continuous basis so this team can finally reach its potential.
I researched this all on my own using the following site:
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/
Please feel free to double check the work and add in anything I missed as well as your thoughts. Thanks.
I'll be back on Monday-ish with my recap of the upcoming victory over Wake Forest.
Have a great weekend and most importantly, "Go Irish!"
Now that @dhighducheck has slapped the Kool-Aid out of everyone's hands before they could take another sip, perhaps we can take a serious look at what it takes at the QB position to make it to the CFP. Dhigh has been way out in front of this since last year.
This isn't a statistical analysis, merely an analysis of the statistics.
Since the inception of the CFP there have been 4 iterations, each with 2 games, for a total of 8 games (there were 4 further games in the championship round but of course they include 2 of the 4 teams and the corresponding QBs from the playoff round) with two teams playing in each of the games for a total of 16 games. 9 different teams have participated in those 16 games. Here they are alphabetically followed by the number of times they've been in the CFP:
Alabama- 4
Clemson- 3
Florida State- 1
Georgia- 1
Michigan State- 1
Ohio State- 2
Oklahoma- 2
Oregon- 1
Washington- 1
Here are the individual years of the CFP. The winner of each respective game is listed first, followed by the team's QB and the QB's completion percentage for that individual game:
14-15
Oregon Marcus/Mariota (72.2) vs. Florida State/Jameis Winston (64.4)
Ohio State/Cardale Jones (51.4) vs. Alabama/Blake Sims (61.1)
Championship- Ohio State/Jones (69.5) vs Oregon/Mariota (64.8)
15-16
Clemson/DeShaun Watson (51.6) vs. Oklahoma/Baker Mayfield (63.4)
Alabama/Jake Coker (83.3) vs. Michigan State/Connor Cook (48.7)
Championship- Alabama/Coker (64) vs Clemson/Watson (63.8)
16-17
Clemson/DeShaun Watson (63.8) vs. Ohio State/JT Barrett (57.5)
Alabama/Jalen Hurts (50) vs. Washington/Jake Browning (52.6)
Championship- Clemson/Watson (64.2) vs. Alabama/Hurts (41.9)
17-18
Georgia/Jake Fromm (68.9) vs. Oklahoma/Baker Mayfield (65.7)
Alabama/Jalen Hurts (66.6) vs. Clemson/Kelly Bryant (50)
Championship- Alabama/Tua Tagovailoa (58.3) vs, Georgia/Fromm (50)
The team that had the QB with the higher completion percentage in the individual game won 5 of the 8 playoff games and all 4 of the championship games.
I was most interested in how these QBs did during the season leading up to making the CFP. I took the primary QBs in each year and/or the the QBs in the CFP/Championship games and looked at their performance over the course of the year. Here's a look in alphabetical order with the year or years they were in the CFP followed by their completion percentage for that year:
JT Barrett- 2014 (64.6); 2016 (61.5)
Jake Browning- 2016 (62.1)
Kelly Bryant- 2017 (65.8)
Jake Coker- 2015 (66.9)
Connor Cook- 2015 (56.1)
Jake Fromm- 2017 (62.2)
Jalen Hurts 2016 (62.8)
Cardale Jones- 2014 (60.9)
Marcus Mariota- 2014 (68.3)
Baker Mayfield- 2015 (68.1); 2017 (70.5)
Blake Sims- 2014 (64.5)
Tua Tagovailoa- 2017- 8 games and 77 pass attempts (63.6)
DeShaun Watson- 2015 (67.8); 2017 (67)
Jameis Winston- 2014 (65.3)
Braxton Miller- was the OSU starter in '14 but was injured. He played in one game in 2014 and made no pass attempts.
That same year OSU used JT Barrett through most of the year and Cardale Jones after Barrett was injured so I included both players. Likewise, I did the same for Alabama with Hurts and Tagovailoa last year.
In any set of statistics there is almost always an outlier, or statistical anomaly, that stands out from the rest. It's best to remove the outlier to get a more accurate set of data. Is this group, it's clearly Connor Cook in 2015. He's the only QB with a completion percentage under 60%..
Taking that sole exception from the group, no team has made it to the CFP with a QB that had a completion percentage under 60% and, thus far anyway, the team that has the QB that performs the most efficiently wins the CFP Championship.
To be certain, a team with a QB that has a 60+ completion percentage doesn't guarantee that you'll make the CFP (see DeShone Kizer, 2015 (62.9); Everett Golson, 2014 (60), but, given the past history of the CFP, it seems virtually impossible to get in without a QB that throws that efficiently.
That said, it's hard to understand how anyone could think it was a realistic possibility for a team to make the CFP with a QB who completed just over 49% of his passes. That's not to say it's Wimbush's fault either. He's very intelligent and very talented. They should be tailoring plays to his strengths and having him make high completion percentage throws and they've failed to do that. There was quite a bit of preseason handwringing that Wimbush wasn’t getting any love in the national QB rankings. The reason was simple: He’s not a very good/accurate passer, this is a passing game (and it ever shall be), and a casual analysis of the data above shows just how important that accuracy is if you want to play on the biggest stage.
As a point of historical reference, I always looked at Tim Tebow as the prototypical Wildcat QB, who moved the ball as many hoped Wimbush did. I looked back and I was really surprised at his completion percentages in his 3 years as a starter. Here they are:
2007- 66.9
2008- 64.4
2009- 67.8
Granted, he only averaged about 16 pass attempts per game, but he was accurate. Interestingly enough, he averaged almost the same number of rushes as passes in each respective year. Urban Meyer designed an offense around him that played to his strengths and they won. That’s what Kelly and Long need to do if they want to move this program ahead.
Speaking of Meyer, in that 2014 campaign he had 2 QBs who completed 60+ percent of their passes and a 3rd, Miller, who 63.5% the year before being injured in the opener. His current QB, Dwayne Haskins, has completed 72.5% of his passes thus far this year. If that stands, that will be the highest completion percentage among the aforementioned QBs, all of whom were damn good. Let that one sink in. Oh, and by the way, Haskins put up that number with Meyer (arguably the best coach in college football) out on suspension. That's not talent, that's scheme.
With that in mind, I’m not sure that BK can do that. He may be better served taking complete hands off approach to his QB and let the OC and QB Coach work with him. BK’s history of QB regression is well documented. I’m as big a BK fan as anyone and I can recall Tony Pike saying something to the effect that when BK got “his kind of QB” he was going to be a Heisman winner. Obviously, we haven’t seen that and I’m starting to doubt we ever will. Trust me when I tell you that I hate saying that.
I am not saying that Ian Book is a better overall option at QB than Wimbush but I am saying he’s the better, more accurate, passer. That’s settled science, if you will, as far as I’m concerned. Also, they seem to design plays well for Book that don’t overload him or exceed his capabilities. Maybe the QB platoon that we’ll see this weekend will work out, but I’m skeptical.
I will say that BK finally has the defense that he has lacked during his tenure her. He has some dynamic players on offense, and, although not as good as last year’s, his offensive line is very good. I would imagine that this is as good a chance as he’s had in the past 4 years to make the CFP, and it may be his best bet for the next two years as well until he he reloads the defense. It may be the wisest choice to simplify the offense and go with the better passer on a more continuous basis so this team can finally reach its potential.
I researched this all on my own using the following site:
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/
Please feel free to double check the work and add in anything I missed as well as your thoughts. Thanks.
I'll be back on Monday-ish with my recap of the upcoming victory over Wake Forest.
Have a great weekend and most importantly, "Go Irish!"
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