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My Two Cents- Northwestern

ClearTheWay

Posts Like A Champion
Sep 9, 2012
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I watched this game in the opening drive and it was like déjà vu all over again: Just like the Navy game, a costly fumble by ND gives the underdog opponent a great chance to score and take the initiative. Except this isn’t ND circa 2016 where whatever can go wrong will and at the worst possible time. No, these guys are different. They seem to thrive off of the adversity. Like in the Navy game, ND stonewalled NW on a short field, forcing a missed FG. They then seize the initiative and go on to win the game. That’s the new ND.


There were several graphics on the telecast that I really liked and I’ll go over them as I move along. The 1st was the one about ND’s November struggles, citing a 1-4 November record in 2014, a November loss to Stanford in 2015, and losses to Stanford and Miami last November. Geek Stat- In the 4 years prior to coming to ND (Central Michigan and Cincy) Brian Kelly was 14-2 in games played in November. In his 1st 3 years at ND, BK was a gaudy 11-1 in November before things went… awry. It seems like he’s back on track now with a team geared for late season success by starting off November on the right track.


Another graphic that surprised me involved Miles Boykin. In 3 games with Brandon Wimbush at QB, Boykin had 8 receptions for an average of 53.7 YPG and no TDs. Through 5 games with Book at QB he has 28 receptions for 79.8 YPG and 6 TDs. There’s no doubt he’s improved, personally, but the Book connection has certainly helped him out.


^Don’t believe me? Let’s look at the next graphic of interest. Through 3 games under Wimbush the Total Offense ranked 99th in FBS, the scoring was 103rd, and the Points per Drive was 94th. Under Book, ND is 8th in Total Offense, 8th in Scoring, and 9th in Points per Drive. That’s not tearing BW down or denigrating him, that’s just stating the facts.


As good as Boykin has been, what a game by Chase Claypool! To think this kid is still learning the game gives you some idea of his potential.


Michael Young- Big play potential every time he touches the ball. He’s the type of dynamic player on offense that ND has been lacking. 60 yards receiving on 2 catches and 52 yards on kick returns. A very potent weapon.


Book- Yes he had an uneventful 1st half, some might even say an ugly one, going 7-15 for 107 yards and no TDs. He responded in the 2nd half, crunch time and the point of the game where ND players over the past several years have wilted, by going 15-19 for 236 yards and 2 TDs to finish the game 22-34 for 343 yards, 2 TDs and no INTs. Despite a tough 1st half, he completed nearly 65% of his pass attempts. I thought that Chip Long was calling too many long pass plays and not playing to Book’s strength of accuracy in the short and medium passes. That changed in the 2nd half.


Post of the Game-
Think we overcame the early fumble and played well in first quarter. Think the second quarter sucked for sure...but believe it was turned on the Off PI call then missed FG.


We are getting beat on OL but they are jumping the run. Play calling average too


Post Game Post-of-the-Game- Keep it in Perspective
Kelly just earned his first back to back 9 win regular seasons of his Notre Dame tenure. I know many seem to be upset with how it happened, but as I’ve said many times this season, this was the type of game that we’ve seen Brian Kelly lose previously during his tenure. This was the exact November game we’ve become used to the previous 5 seasons...except it wasn’t. Once again this team found a way to win. Concerned about special teams and the oline still, but this team just keeps winning. 9-0 is sweet, and again, back to back 9 win regular seasons for the first time since 2005 and 2006. Now let’s go get 3 more to bring this thing home....


Special Teams- Overall I think they’ve improved over 2 years ago, but there always seems to be some gaffe that causes me to shake my head. The obvious issue in this game was the blocked punt. Not to pick on Claypool because he had a great game, but he pulled away from Cameron Ruiz, went up through the center of the line and went to tackle the returner. That allowed Ruiz to come in unblocked and block the punt. Poor execution. That was scheme, not a missed assignment and it let NW get back in the game.


Penalties and Turnovers- ND had 8 penalties for 58 yards and NW had zero penalties. Add in the fact that ND had 1 turnover to NW’s 0, we were lucky this game didn’t get away from us. Fitzgerald sent a disciplined team out to meet the Irish.


Defense- I didn’t think it was their best effort against the run but I go into that below, as it was part of Kelly’s gameplan. Additionally, it seems like the pass rush was lacking at times. That said, ND did have 5 sacks and 6 tackles for loss. The strength of this win came from the secondary, however. Tevon Coney is a SPECIAL player.


Out-Geeked on the Stats by @thomasna. Excellent post illustrating just how good the secondary has become.
I looked up pass break ups and passes defended just to see how ND ranked. ND's secondary has gotten their hands on a lot of passes. I think the secondary is overlooked when talking about our defense. Yes, the DL is very good but I would point out that we also have one of the better secondaries in the country. It really is a strong unit. ND's opponents have attempted 310 passes over 9 games. That is 34.4 pass attempts a game. Only 30 teams have had teams attempt more passes. ND also gave up plenty of garbage yards with the game well in hand. Only three games over 200 yards passing(Michigan, Vandy, and VT). Keep that in mind when digesting the stats below.


Passing Defense 2018 stats through 9 games:

Passing TD's given up: T-3rd fewest TD's given up with 6

Pass breakups: T-5th with 45.

Yards per Attempt: T-6th with 5.5 ypa. Average is 7.3 ypa

Passer rating: 9th. Giving up a rating of 103.32. Average is about 130-132.

Passes defensed: T-13 with 53 or 5.89 per game.

Yards per game: 26th at 188.4ypg

Completion % allowed: T-31 at 56.1%

Ints: T-47 with 8. Only 6 by the secondary. Area for improvement.


DL has benefitted from the coverage. If the secondary tackled a little better(Elliott and Pride) then this is a top 10 secondary.


The final graphic of note builds on @thomasna’s post. Through his 1st 8 games, NW QB Clayton Thorson completed nearly 61% of his passes for 259 YPG and 10 TDs. In this game he completed 55% of his passes for 141 yards and 1 TD. I saw an interview with BK where he said he was basically selling out the runs up the middle in order to prevent Thorson from beating them in the air. I wasn’t crazy about the yardage that Bowser was able to get, particularly up the middle, nor did I like the fact that the pass rush seem to be stunted, but the team got the job done in the secondary.


O-Line- The Hiestand/Quinn topic has been beat to death but I’ll chime in with some Geek Stats. The view of the O-Line and people’s opinion of it is somewhat amorphous. It is definitely not as technically sound and disciplined as it was last year, but it was anchored by 2 generational players holding down the most important side of the line. Here’s how the Hiestand crew compares to the Quinn crew:


In 2017, ND completed about 51.7 % of its passes for 178.9 YPG and rushed for6.4 YPC and 269.5 YPG. The total offense was 448.4 YPG on 70.1 Plays Per Game.


Compare that with the 2018 stats through 9 games where ND is completing 68.8% of its passes for 268.1 YPG and rushing for 4.3 YPC and 181.4 YPG. The total offense thus far is 449.6 YPG on 73.8 Plays Per Game.


Ultra-Geek Stats- Adding on to the point above, there’s something to be said for keeping your QB upright. Thus far this year, ND has allowed an average of 1.4 sacks per game (only 1 in the past 3 games) vs. the 2017 average of 2.2 sacks per game (https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/qb-sacked-per-game). As good a Hiestand’s reputation was in the pass protection game, Quinn’s group has performed better in all aspects of the passing game, and it is, after all, a passing game. Imagine how the Quinn unit would perform if you returned what amounts to 2 NFL starters to the line. Food for thought when criticizing the Quinn and his hiring.


He Said it Best:
Yes, that was a Harry Heistand OL that got steamrolled at Miami, last year, with two Consensus All-American OL. Oh, and that line lost 2 of 3 games played in November, and barely escaped Navy. How about we make the players accountable for their poor play. It's not all on Quinn.


However, I do agree that the push against the NW D-line was lacking and that caused our ground game


Cole Kmet- Only 2 catches, but he really stood out of both. Big time catches for an average of nearly 21 yards.


On the final NW offensive play, Love and Gilman absolutely crushed that receiver. That’s the type of killer instinct at the end of games that we’ve been lacking over time. Not anymore.


Announcers- I loved the Todd Blackledge/Sean McDonough tandem. That was as good as it gets for me. Sean’s father Will was a well-known columnist in Boston for years. He could be tough on players, but he had a great way with common folks. Met him several times when I was doing menial jobs at the Boston Garden during school breaks and he made you feel like he you were the most important person around.


Bring on FSU. There will be no November letdowns this year.


Have a great week!
 
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