it is going to take replacing about 5 of the guys ranked in the #100-#200 range with guys ranked in the #1-#100 range to get inside the top 5 imo. I believe 247 has a talent calculator where you can add and subtract prospects and see what your overall recruiting score is under different hypotheticals based on how your school finishes the class. Im going off of old browsing sessions at 247, but I believe in order to get into the top 5 you'd need to have a total recruiting class score of 300-325ish (depending on the year). I'm sure someone will correct me if im wrong or when i get to a desktop and can comfortably look it up i'll do it myself. It'll be interesting to know what the aggregate top 5 recruiting class scores are over the last 3 years and compare how far ND is from hitting that milestone. It would be a HUGE one as ND hasn't finished inside the top 5 in recruiting since the 2012 or 2013 class during the national title run.
I wasn't clear in that post you quoted. What i meant to say is that your evals/rating AS A PROSPECT is what your eval/rating says you are.
Yes some guys are late bloomers or the prognosticators just whiffed completely (this is super rare) and NDs scouting has been top notch as they've hit consistently on guys who ended up being superior to what their prospect rank was. Hard to pinpoint whether the player development or the scouting deserves the praise or a little bit of both, but NDs scouting & player development has been top notch ESPECIALLY UNDER MF. It has been a real plus to the ND organization since BK era, but MF has turned it up a notch the last two seasons. ND might have one of the best scouting & player development operations in college football right now which makes sense when you consider they are paying top dollar for one of the best coaching staffs on the planet (maybe behind only OSUs).
what I meant to say was yes, there are some edge cases of course, but the industry-scouts that do the composite ratings that we rely so heavily on are going based on the best information they have available at the time. They are rating PROSPECTS not PLAYERS. That subtle difference means everything. Once a PROSPECT gets on campus, what his prospect rating was/is doesn't really matter anymore. Now he's being evaluated as a PLAYER.
Guys like Joe Alt, or JOK, or BenMo (and countless others) were middling prospects that turned into great players.