With the offseason in full force, I figured this might be an opportune time for some "summer reading". So for our hoops readers on the board, we're doing a series diving into all the analytics used on Kenpom.com that are so frequently referenced in many of my stories.
For those that already know what all the "advanced" stats are, this should be a good refresher. For those new to the idea, enjoy, and any questions are welcome!
Part 1: Kenpom Basics (link)
Part 2: Effective Field Goal Percentage (link)
What is turnover rate (TO%)? In one sentence, TO% is just a more accurate stat for turnovers per game.
Turnovers per game - like any per game stat - can be misleading because of tempo. Team A might play really fast and have more turnovers per game than Team B who plays really slow, which would indicate to some that Team A struggles more with ball control than Team B.
In reality, Team A might just have more turnovers per game because they play more possessions.
Example:
Team A averages 65 possessions and 12 turnovers per game.
Team B averages 75 possessions and 14 turnovers per game.
Which team struggles more with ball control?
Team A: 12/65 = An 18.5 percent turnover rate, or a TO every 5-6 possessions.
Team B: 14/75 = An 18.7 percent turnover rate, or a TO every 5-6 possessions.
So the answer, obviously, is they're pretty much the same, despite Team B average two more TO's a game.
I know the difference between 12 and 14 per game seems really minimal, so it's easy to blow this one off. But that's the difference between ranking 100th nationally in turnovers per game and 294th, per NCAA.com.
That's a massive, MASSIVE gap, despite it being just a couple TO's per game difference. It's really important to get this stat right, because it can vary wildly with just a small twist.
That's why it's important to use TO% instead of TO's per game. Just the slightest difference is big.
It'd be very easy to falsely assume that Team B is way worse with the ball than Team A, given the difference between ranking 294th nationally and 100th. In reality, they're the same.
How can I calculate TO%? Very easy. Just turnovers / # of possessions.
Where did Notre Dame rank this year? The Irish checked in at 19th nationally with a 15.3 percent turnover rate, or one TO every 6-7 possessions.
This is a Mike Brey staple. He'll let players slide for various mistakes, but the one thing you cannot do is turn the ball over.
Among Notre Dame's regular players, both V.J. Beachem (10.3 percent) and Bonzie Colson (11.0 percent) finished the year with fantastic turnover rates.
Demetrius Jackson at 15.3 percent is just fine for a point guard, who's bound to have more turnovers with the ball in their hands more. Steve Vasturia's was a bit high at 17.5 percent.
The worst by far was Zach Auguste with 19.0 percent. ND will miss the big man for many reasons, but his turnovers won't be one of them.
What is good and bad? Here's a tier to go by.
2016 TO% rankings:
No. 1 nationally: Central Michigan, 13.6%.
No. 25: Jacksonville, 15.4%.
No. 100: Arizona State, 17.1%
No. 234: Duquesne, 18.9%
No. 351 (Worst in D1): Bradley, 25.4%
Bonus analysis: I gave this lecture a few times during the season, but for those who missed it....turnovers are the BIGGEST killer of offensive productivity. Brey knows this, and it's why he stresses ball control so much.
Picture an awful possession: Matt Farrell dribbles out the shot clock several feet behind the arc, and hoists a 27-footer with :05 left on the clock.
Miserable possession. But there are still several good things that can happen.
1) There's a rare chance the shot goes in. 2) There's a rare chance Farrell is somehow fouled. 3) There's a chance ND gets the offensive rebound. 4) There's a chance someone from ND is fouled going for the rebound.
Even in an awful possession like that, there are still a few good possible outcomes.
What happens when a team commits a turnover? That's it. There are no good possible outcomes. The other team takes over possession - and additionally, sometimes gets a headstart going to the other end for an easy score.
Turnovers are the worst. Absolute worst.
People always cite Notre Dame's shooting ability as a huge key to their productive offense, and it's definitely helpful. But the biggest key to their offensive success is not turning the ball over.
Three takeaways:
For those that already know what all the "advanced" stats are, this should be a good refresher. For those new to the idea, enjoy, and any questions are welcome!
Part 1: Kenpom Basics (link)
Part 2: Effective Field Goal Percentage (link)
What is turnover rate (TO%)? In one sentence, TO% is just a more accurate stat for turnovers per game.
Turnovers per game - like any per game stat - can be misleading because of tempo. Team A might play really fast and have more turnovers per game than Team B who plays really slow, which would indicate to some that Team A struggles more with ball control than Team B.
In reality, Team A might just have more turnovers per game because they play more possessions.
Example:
Team A averages 65 possessions and 12 turnovers per game.
Team B averages 75 possessions and 14 turnovers per game.
Which team struggles more with ball control?
Team A: 12/65 = An 18.5 percent turnover rate, or a TO every 5-6 possessions.
Team B: 14/75 = An 18.7 percent turnover rate, or a TO every 5-6 possessions.
So the answer, obviously, is they're pretty much the same, despite Team B average two more TO's a game.
I know the difference between 12 and 14 per game seems really minimal, so it's easy to blow this one off. But that's the difference between ranking 100th nationally in turnovers per game and 294th, per NCAA.com.
That's a massive, MASSIVE gap, despite it being just a couple TO's per game difference. It's really important to get this stat right, because it can vary wildly with just a small twist.
That's why it's important to use TO% instead of TO's per game. Just the slightest difference is big.
It'd be very easy to falsely assume that Team B is way worse with the ball than Team A, given the difference between ranking 294th nationally and 100th. In reality, they're the same.
How can I calculate TO%? Very easy. Just turnovers / # of possessions.
Where did Notre Dame rank this year? The Irish checked in at 19th nationally with a 15.3 percent turnover rate, or one TO every 6-7 possessions.
This is a Mike Brey staple. He'll let players slide for various mistakes, but the one thing you cannot do is turn the ball over.
Among Notre Dame's regular players, both V.J. Beachem (10.3 percent) and Bonzie Colson (11.0 percent) finished the year with fantastic turnover rates.
Demetrius Jackson at 15.3 percent is just fine for a point guard, who's bound to have more turnovers with the ball in their hands more. Steve Vasturia's was a bit high at 17.5 percent.
The worst by far was Zach Auguste with 19.0 percent. ND will miss the big man for many reasons, but his turnovers won't be one of them.
What is good and bad? Here's a tier to go by.
2016 TO% rankings:
No. 1 nationally: Central Michigan, 13.6%.
No. 25: Jacksonville, 15.4%.
No. 100: Arizona State, 17.1%
No. 234: Duquesne, 18.9%
No. 351 (Worst in D1): Bradley, 25.4%
Bonus analysis: I gave this lecture a few times during the season, but for those who missed it....turnovers are the BIGGEST killer of offensive productivity. Brey knows this, and it's why he stresses ball control so much.
Picture an awful possession: Matt Farrell dribbles out the shot clock several feet behind the arc, and hoists a 27-footer with :05 left on the clock.
Miserable possession. But there are still several good things that can happen.
1) There's a rare chance the shot goes in. 2) There's a rare chance Farrell is somehow fouled. 3) There's a chance ND gets the offensive rebound. 4) There's a chance someone from ND is fouled going for the rebound.
Even in an awful possession like that, there are still a few good possible outcomes.
What happens when a team commits a turnover? That's it. There are no good possible outcomes. The other team takes over possession - and additionally, sometimes gets a headstart going to the other end for an easy score.
Turnovers are the worst. Absolute worst.
People always cite Notre Dame's shooting ability as a huge key to their productive offense, and it's definitely helpful. But the biggest key to their offensive success is not turning the ball over.
Three takeaways:
- Turnover rate (TO%) is a more accurate version of turnovers per game, which can be inaccurate because of pace.
- The best teams turn the ball over around 1 every 6.5 possessions or less. Start getting into that 1 every 5-6 possessions range, and you're already out of the top 100 nationally.
- Turnovers are the worst outcome of an offensive possession, much worse than taking a terribly low percentage shot, for example.
