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HOOPS | Offseason Review: Free Throw Rate

Jordan Wells

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Feb 11, 2015
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With the offseason in full force, I figured this might be an opportune time for some "summer reading". So for our hoops readers on the board, we're doing a series diving into all the analytics used on Kenpom.com that are so frequently referenced in many of my stories.

For those that already know what all the "advanced" stats are, this should be a good refresher. For those new to the idea, enjoy, and any questions are welcome!

Part 1: Kenpom Basics (link)
Part 2: Effective Field Goal Percentage (link)
Part 3: Turnover Rate (link)
Part 4: Rebounding Rate (link)


What is free throw rate? In one sentence, free throw rate (FTA/FGA) is just a more accurate version of free throws per game.

If a team plays at a faster pace, that means they have more possessions in a game. That means a chance for more fouls to be called, and more free throws, by default.

That could lead to making a mistake of comparing the free throw attempts per game between Team A and Team B, and assuming one team is better than getting to the line than the other. When really, maybe Team A just plays more possessions each game than Team B.


A really interesting note when diving into the math of free throw rate is how important free throw differential is (taking more free throw attempts than your opponent) compared to free throw percentage made.

Screen_Shot_2016_05_28_at_5_43_17_PM.png


That research, courtesy of Kenpom.com (link) shows a couple things. The number of times you get to the line is almost just as important your free throw percentage, limiting your opponent’s free throws is more important than both of those factors, and free throw differential is clearly the most important of all four.

How does this happen? Let’s look at an example.

The most efficient offense nationally last year when looking at raw numbers was Indiana, who averaged 1.19 points per possession.

Let’s say you have a 60 percent free throw shooter, which we all know is pretty bad.

In five trips to the line (that’s five possessions,) he makes 6-of-10 free throws.

That’s six points in five possessions. 6 / 5 = 1.20 points per possession.

Now, obviously you’d have to adjust that for trips where you miss the front end of a one-and-one. The above example assumes two free throw attempts on all five trips.

Nevertheless, it wouldn’t fall that far. Just being a bit better than a 60 percent free throw shooter is going to end up a plus for you a lot of the time.

That makes the biggest key not shooting free throws at a high percentage, but getting to the line more than your opponent. Earning more attempts is going to give you more trips down the floor with a high points per possession rate, even if you don’t shoot free throws at a great percentage.


Where did Notre Dame rank this year? The Irish checked in at 273rd nationally with a 32.9 percent FTA/FGA rate on offense, but 11th nationally only allowing a 26.0 percent free throw rate.

Notre Dame didn’t get to the line very much, but they definitely didn’t put their opponent on the stripe either. Criticize the Irish’s defense for a lot of things, but at least they keep free throw differential down.

To no surprise, Zach Auguste led Notre Dame individually with a 55.7 percent free throw rate. Bonzie Colson was second with 44.0 percent.

Obviously, players in the paint get fouled more than those who spend some time drifting outside of it.

What is good and bad? Here's a tier to go by.

2016 free throw rate rankings (offense):
No. 1 nationally: Virginia Tech, 49.4%.
No. 25: Northern Colorado, 43.4%.
No. 100: Hofstra, 39.5%
No. 234: George Mason, 34.4%
No. 351 (Worst in D1): Liberty, 25.5%

2016 free throw rate rankings (defense):
No. 1 nationally: Utah, 23.0%.
No. 25: Providence, 28.0%.
No. 100: Harvard, 33.5%
No. 234: Campbell, 39.3%
No. 351 (Worst in D1): West Virginia, 55.3%

Three takeaways:
  • Free throw rate (FTA/FGA) is better to use than free throw attempts per game because the latter can be skewed depending on tempo.
  • Math suggests that getting to the stripe more than your opponent is of greater importance than shooting a high free throw percentage.
  • Notre Dame doesn’t do many things well defensively, but one thing they get right is limiting opponents free throw chances, which math shows is pretty important.
 
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