ADVERTISEMENT

ESPN FPI says 10-2

11NCs

ND Expert
Mar 4, 2011
1,455
129
63
Team, win probability
Record

Temple 94.5%
1-0

UGa 51.2%
2-0

BC 80.5%
3-0

MSU 71.9%
4-0

Miami (OH) 93.7%
5-0

UNC 57.9%
6-0

USC 56.8%
7-0

NCSU 57.8%
8-0

WF 84.6%
9-0

Miami (FL) 35.1%
9-1

Navy 89.7%
10-1

Stanford 27%
10-2
 
Team, win probability
Record

Temple 94.5%
1-0

UGa 51.2%
2-0

BC 80.5%
3-0

MSU 71.9%
4-0

Miami (OH) 93.7%
5-0

UNC 57.9%
6-0

USC 56.8%
7-0

NCSU 57.8%
8-0

WF 84.6%
9-0

Miami (FL) 35.1%
9-1

Navy 89.7%
10-1

Stanford 27%
10-2
I cannot see us losing to Miami. USC yes. Georgia yes.
 
Do they factor in Kelly is an almost automatic 8-4 coach every year?
 
Temple 1-0
Georgia 1-1
BC 2-1
Michigan State 3-1
Miami OH 4-1
UNC 5-1
USC 5-2
NCSU 6-2
WF 7-2
Miami FL 7-3
Navy 8-3
Stanford 8-4

Gator Bowl-Arkansas 9-4

mediocrity Will live, BK will get an extension, Swarbrick will give himself an extension.

I struggled with giving ND a win against Navy. Not sure ND could get by MSU but they did win 3 games last year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ivan brunetti
Do they factor in Kelly is an almost automatic 8-4 coach every year?
no team on the schedule this season has averaged 10 or more wins the last few years outside of Stanford and so I don't get why you think that Kelly's win average means anything this upcoming season
 
  • Like
Reactions: Bodizephax
Mich st. Isn't a gimme. I wouldn't say Georgia is either. Usc never is and Richt will have Miami playing at a high level. Stanford is always tough. 10 and 2 only if the breaks don't beat the boys. After 4 and 8 my gut tells me a "rebound" of 8 and 4.
 
Last edited:
before you made this post, what do you know about USC? are you familar with the roster overall?

I know they have to replace at both offensive tackles and a guard on the offensive line for 2017. Several returning guys were banged up for spring practice: of the two deep at center, one is still recovering from last season's ACL injury (he's had several knee injuries) and the other was struggling with a herniated disk. I think they had a lineman that had surgery for a torn bicep too.

Lot of talent at the skill positions though.
 
the OL is the area that SC fans are looking for improvement. They have the talent. The rest of the roster is well manned.
'17 will be ND's last shot to upset SC while under the Kelly contract ending 202?.
This is beginning to look like the USC fans have come to expect. And recruiting is really looking like a top 5 class.
The talent gap between USC and ND is becoming more significant with each class.
ND realistically has to beat USC to get a playoff spot or even a top Bowl game.

Talent wise, USC, Bama, Clemson, tOSU, FSU, are distancing themselves from the pack.
LSU, UGA, Texas, UM, Mia, Ok, next group. Then teams like Tenn, UCLA, TAM.
These teams are getting the occaisional elite talent.
Question for posters: since 2013, how many players with a Rivals rating 6.0 or better committed to ND vs USC? Clemson? FSU? tOSU? Ala.? Even SU?

Pre-season: The 5 best teams in the country are reflective of recruiting elite players.

We say the components of team development are talent and coaching.
Well talent (see above) and ND has had problems on the coaching level for 2 decades, inclusive of: pre game prep, game plans and in game adjustments/development; and player development has been a constant topic of debate. In fact, Much of the above has been hot topics on this forum.

Overall program evaluation would then look at the off field developments and there have been issues there as well. But yet....
 
Last edited:
on the current roster, who do you consider ND's most productive (not best or most talented) players in actual games played so far in their careers?
 
Team, win probability
Record

Temple 94.5%
1-0

UGa 51.2%
2-0

BC 80.5%
3-0

MSU 71.9%
4-0

Miami (OH) 93.7%
5-0

UNC 57.9%
6-0

USC 56.8%
7-0

NCSU 57.8%
8-0

WF 84.6%
9-0

Miami (FL) 35.1%
9-1

Navy 89.7%
10-1

Stanford 27%
10-2

I'm willing to bet anyone that Michigan State will beat ND in East Lansing. Don't forget Dantonio and MSU scored 36 unanswered points in South Bend last year. It's a terrible match up for ND. Sparty will pound LJ Scott all day long and the Irish DL won't do a thing to stop him.
 
Mich st. Isn't a gimme. I wouldn't say Georgia is either. Usc never is and Richt will have Miami playing at a high level. Stanford is always tough. 10 and 2 only if the breaks don't beat the boys. After 4 and 8 my gut tells me a "rebound" of 8 and 4.

Georgia will be a MUCH tougher game than Sparty. Michigan State is looking at another 4-8 year.
 
MSU's issue is QB. IF they find a QB then they will be very tough.
Pre-season perspective, there are really only 2 elite QB's on ND's schedule.
The weak schedule has to help the ND defense.
 
MSU's issue is QB. IF they find a QB then they will be very tough.
Pre-season perspective, there are really only 2 elite QB's on ND's schedule.
The weak schedule has to help the ND defense.

I think Sparty's QB is going to be in jail come Fall. I don't know if they have a serviceable backup.
 
I'm willing to bet anyone that Michigan State will beat ND in East Lansing. Don't forget Dantonio and MSU scored 36 unanswered points in South Bend last year. It's a terrible match up for ND. Sparty will pound LJ Scott all day long and the Irish DL won't do a thing to stop him.
Last season has absolutely nothing to do with 2017.
 
I doubt you are.
He doesn't eat, bathe or do anything constructive. How else would a productive member of society have 30,000 inane posts on a fun website? What makes you think he doesn't have the USC roster resigned to memory? More importantly he knows what some retired pop warner coach gave the kid for a ranking in regards to recruiting.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Bodizephax
more constructive support of Kelly? 1199 posts and everyone a personal attack.

Echo, peennick44, And the few others can't come up with any reasons of support; other than ND not wanting to eat the contract?

And bad news, the season is coming, again.
 
more constructive support of Kelly? 1199 posts and everyone a personal attack.

Echo, peennick44, And the few others can't come up with any reasons of support; other than ND not wanting to eat the contract?

And bad news, the season is coming, again.
So I'm guessing you would like to go back to the days of Fat Charlie, or Willingham or Davie? Kelly has had this program back to a NC game. Is he Lou Holtz, no he is not. Who else are you going to have walk threw the door and coach this team? Be realistic who do you want coaching this team?
 
After being disappointed year after year, I can not believe that any game is an automatic win. I am hopeful that Wimbush can be a great leader and player, but I will take it one game at a time. I will try to enjoy watching each game and hope that we can win that game ?
 
Wimbush makes the season impossible to predict. He has to carry this team, probably more so than any ND QB in the last 20 years. So goes Wimbush so goes the season.
 
Wimbush makes the season impossible to predict. He has to carry this team, probably more so than any ND QB in the last 20 years. So goes Wimbush so goes the season.
Couldn't be more wrong. It could be argued that there is more talent around him than in the past 25 years.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Bodizephax
Coaching matters! We now have an OC that uses an array of offensive sets, likes to run, and who likes to use running backs and tight ends in the passing game, and who knows how to use Wimbush's considerable running skills. And we have to excellent talent at nearly every offensive position. Right tackle with Kraemer is my one concern on offense.
Elko is making a huge impact on defense. Questions remain whether we can put pressure on the QB, but early returns from Spring suggest that Tranquil and D Hayes and Morgan will be disruptive. Lots of question marks as to the defensive line, but Elko's scheme plays to the strengths of guys like Tillery and Bonner and Cage and Hayes, etc... and the impact of Bilas on strength and conditioning will show immediate returns on how well we compete in the fourth qtr of games. Our defensive backs are more talented as a group than any in recent memory, and even the two safety positions seem to be coming along better than projected, with the emergence and change of position for Coleman and Elliott.
How this all translates to wins and losses is why we play the games, but on record with a very optimistic 10-2 prediction. I'm more confident predicting we'll field a team that is more physical, more fundamentally sound, more competitive, less predictable, and more fun to watch than what has become the ND norm.
 
it doesn't matter who is out there, this offense will be reliant upon Wimbush. And in indirectly, the defense is reliant upon Wimbush.
 
Team, win probability
Record

Temple 94.5%
1-0

UGa 51.2%
2-0

BC 80.5%
3-0

MSU 71.9%
4-0

Miami (OH) 93.7%
5-0

UNC 57.9%
6-0

USC 56.8%
7-0

NCSU 57.8%
8-0

WF 84.6%
9-0

Miami (FL) 35.1%
9-1

Navy 89.7%
10-1

Stanford 27%
10-2

Looking at individual games is not how win percentage expectation is calculated. If you are a 75% favorite to win every game, that doesn't mean Vegas expects you to go 12-0. It means 9-3 is the most likely outcome. For example, the odds of winning the first two games of the year is under 50%.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT