Is the United States Poised to Run Out of Bourbon?
The demand for bourbon is overwhelming. In the past decade, there has been a nearly 40 percent growth in sales of bourbon and Tennessee whiskey in the United States, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (DISCUS).
"We're growing so dramatically that we've outgrown any reasonable expectations," says Jim Rutledge, Master Distiller of Four Roses, one of the iconic, major Kentucky bourbon distilleries. "It's just out of sight."
The problem is that distillers cannot simply snap their fingers and churn out more whiskey. Getting your favorite bourbon on the shelf is a lengthy process, with years spent patiently waiting for that whiskey to mature in the barrel. What you're drinking right now, sitting at home and reading this article, may have been placed in a new charred American oak barrel five years ago, a decade prior, or even longer.
New stills must be produced to make more bourbon, new warehouses are required to store more barrels, which themselves have been battling scarcity issues due both to demand and inclement weather, and then that bourbon must sit, and sit, and sit. "It will be several years before we have any extra inventory over and above demand," explains Rutledge.
Meanwhile, an IWSR survey commission by Vinexpo projects that global bourbon sales are predicted to increase nearly 20 percent more in the next five years. Not everyone has faith in those numbers though, and plans based upon future growth have come back to hurt distillers in the past.
"Long-range findings in this business is really long-range guessing, and I wouldn't even call it educated guessing," explains Rutledge. "It's very difficult to determine consumer trends, and looking back at previous years and what's been happening, that obviously didn't work."
The only thing worse than not having enough whiskey to sell to people is having vast rickhouses lined with whiskey-filled barrels that nobody wants to buy. It happened in the 1970s as many American consumers shifted away from whiskey, instead turning toward vodka and rum. This led to the demise and consolidation of brands, and it's a hard-learned lesson which remains in the back of everyone's mind even in today's bullish bourbon market.
Meanwhile, a trip to the local liquor store will reveal a different bourbon selection than perhaps expected. "Bad news, there is absolutely a bourbon shortage," says Brett Pontoni, spirits buyer at Binny's Beverage Depot, a Chicago-based chain and one of the more prominent online retailers."The demand is far outstripping existing supplies," concurs Joe Riley, the Fine Spirits Manager of Ace Beverage, Washington, D.C.'s oldest wine and liquor store.
The demand for bourbon is overwhelming. In the past decade, there has been a nearly 40 percent growth in sales of bourbon and Tennessee whiskey in the United States, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (DISCUS).
"We're growing so dramatically that we've outgrown any reasonable expectations," says Jim Rutledge, Master Distiller of Four Roses, one of the iconic, major Kentucky bourbon distilleries. "It's just out of sight."
The problem is that distillers cannot simply snap their fingers and churn out more whiskey. Getting your favorite bourbon on the shelf is a lengthy process, with years spent patiently waiting for that whiskey to mature in the barrel. What you're drinking right now, sitting at home and reading this article, may have been placed in a new charred American oak barrel five years ago, a decade prior, or even longer.
New stills must be produced to make more bourbon, new warehouses are required to store more barrels, which themselves have been battling scarcity issues due both to demand and inclement weather, and then that bourbon must sit, and sit, and sit. "It will be several years before we have any extra inventory over and above demand," explains Rutledge.
Meanwhile, an IWSR survey commission by Vinexpo projects that global bourbon sales are predicted to increase nearly 20 percent more in the next five years. Not everyone has faith in those numbers though, and plans based upon future growth have come back to hurt distillers in the past.
"Long-range findings in this business is really long-range guessing, and I wouldn't even call it educated guessing," explains Rutledge. "It's very difficult to determine consumer trends, and looking back at previous years and what's been happening, that obviously didn't work."
The only thing worse than not having enough whiskey to sell to people is having vast rickhouses lined with whiskey-filled barrels that nobody wants to buy. It happened in the 1970s as many American consumers shifted away from whiskey, instead turning toward vodka and rum. This led to the demise and consolidation of brands, and it's a hard-learned lesson which remains in the back of everyone's mind even in today's bullish bourbon market.
Meanwhile, a trip to the local liquor store will reveal a different bourbon selection than perhaps expected. "Bad news, there is absolutely a bourbon shortage," says Brett Pontoni, spirits buyer at Binny's Beverage Depot, a Chicago-based chain and one of the more prominent online retailers."The demand is far outstripping existing supplies," concurs Joe Riley, the Fine Spirits Manager of Ace Beverage, Washington, D.C.'s oldest wine and liquor store.
