UMass put up a couple scores early, but the Irish eventually pulled away as we all expected (although Coach D was the only one courageous enough to call 60+ points – kudos Coach!)
The main takeaway for me as a numbers guy is now the season is already a third of the way through – we’re starting to really build some data - and Notre Dame now has leveled the strength of schedule stats playing field with some of the other leading programs out there after playing their one far inferior opponent in Week 4. So let’s take a brief look at the game, and also visit where ND ranks one-third of the way through the year.
Offense: Notre Dame put up 8.6 yards per play against the Minutemen, 681 yards in 79 plays. The Irish averaged 7.0 against Texas, 7.2 against Virginia, and 7.4 against Georgia Tech – so they’ve gotten better here every week, although that was expected against UMass this week. As has been noted each week for context, Oregon was the No. 2 offense nationally last year with 7.3 yards per play.
Interestingly, Notre Dame was actually more explosive on the ground than through the air. C.J Prosise’s 57-yard best was only the third-longest run on the day – Brandon Wimbush had a 58-yard carry, and Josh Adams took the top spot with a 70-yarder. In the end, ND averaged 9.0 yards per rush on 51 carries (!!). I know it’s only UMass, but still, that’s incredible.
On the season, Notre Dame now ranks No. 6 nationally averaging 7.6 yards per play, trailing Mississippi (7.6), Texas Tech (7.9), USC (8.0), Georgia (8.3), and Baylor (9.5). It’s important to take strength of schedule into account here still – Baylor’s played SMU, Lamar and Rice to-date, for example.
I have a story coming up on this in the next section of the magazine, so I don’t want to get too specific – but the last five national champions averaged 7.12 yards per play on the season, and only one champion (Alabama in 2011) ranked outside the Top 10 in this category (the Tide ranked No. 12 nationally in ’11). This stat – evaluating explosiveness, and to an extent efficiency – is clearly a commonality in contending and winning a national title, and the Irish are right there on pace where you want to be (well, at least on this side of the ball.)
Success Rate: I quit tracking when garbage time started (Notre Dame’s 28-point lead in the second half), but up to that point, I charted the Irish as successful on 40-of-56 plays, which is a 71 percent clip. This is an absurdly high efficient rate - for context, ND's success rate was 59 percent in a dominant performance against Texas.
On the season here, ND is about in the Top 25ish range. So the offense through four games has been both explosive and efficient.
Defense: The defense allowed 5.1 yards per rush and 6.3 yards per pass attempt to UMass – that’s a pretty bad rushing number to give up, especially considering the competition (6.3 yards per pass attempt allowed is actually pretty good though). Kelly said they wanted to make sure Sharpe didn’t wreck the game, and he was held to 83 yards on his eight catches – Coach D did point out in the press box that Sharpe beat ND on a few plays where Frohnapfel just couldn’t deliver the ball, so that has to be considered. The yards per pass attempt allowed might not have been as good had Frohnapfel had a better day throwing. Overall he was 20-for-40 for 233 yards and an interception.
For their combined yards per play and further analysis, refer to the Identity Stats below.
Success Rate: As mentioned earlier, I quit tracking when garbage time started (Notre Dame’s 28-point lead in the second half), but up to that point, I charted the Minutemen as successful on only 14-of-44 plays (32 percent), which is a good effort for the Irish. It’s not mindblowing good like the offense was – but it’s good.
What’s interesting is the comparison between standard downs and passing downs. We classify a passing down as a down/distance where a coach is almost forced to pass, as opposed to a standard down, where there’s an option to run OR pass. When the down/distance is long enough that a coach will often choose to pass, the defense can prepare accordingly for that and use it to their advantage. Passing downs for our system is any second-and-8 or longer, or third/fourth-and-5 or longer.
UMass was actually successful on 12-of-24 plays on standard downs, when they had some flexibility. 50 percent is actually a very respectable rate. When the Irish forced them into passing situations is where they really struggled – only 2-for-20.
Per Bill Connelly at SB Nation (link), ND actually ranks pretty good here at borderline Top 25 in the country. So they're pretty good at keeping guys behind the chains. It’s giving up big plays where the Irish struggle defensively (see below).
Identity Stats – Offense
Rushing Success Rate: This number measures how well Notre Dame stays ahead of the chains trying to move the ball on the ground. The talent and depth at offensive line, combined with the backfield and a dual-threat quarterback means the Irish really want to use that ground game in an efficient manner.
I charted the Irish as successful on 25-of-32 run plays entering garbage time – a 78 percent clip. This is an absurdly high productive performance. In the 32 carries I charted up to garbage time, only eight were for less than four yards. As Whipple said, Notre Dame’s offensive line had their way with UMass – which was to be expected.
Again per Connelly at SB Nation, Notre Dame ranks 26th nationally in rushing success rate to this point. 50.9 percent of their carries gain five yards or more, which ranks 2nd nationally.
Yards Per Pass Attempt: If Notre Dame can stay ahead of the chains like they want to consistently moving the ball on the ground, then that opens up some tremendous downfield possibilities. So what we want to measure is, when the Irish do decide to put the ball in the air, how many big plays can they pick up?
ND averaged 8.0 yards per pass attempt, which would put you right around the Top 25 nationally if you averaged that on the season. Kizer individually was 15-of-22 for 207 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. There wasn’t a super-long that we’ve grown used to seeing, but Fuller, Jones and Brown all reeled in at least one catch of 25+ yards.
On the season, Notre Dame is averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt, ranking No. 22 nationally.
Identity Stats – Defense
Havoc: Notre Dame wants to be aggressive on defense – so how can we try to measure that? Combining the total of tackles for loss, forced fumbles and passes defended into one number.
UMass called 77 plays on Saturday. The Irish were able to force nine tackles for loss, one forced fumble, and eight passes defensed, for 18 Havoc plays in 77 tries - a 23.4 percent clip.
This is their best effort of the season in this category. For context, Virginia ranked No. 4 in the country last year with a 21.0 percent clip on the season.
On the season, Notre Dame has a 19.6 percent Havoc rate, ranking No. 25 nationally per Bill Connelly. This is much improved from last season.
Yards Per Play Allowed: Playing an aggressive defense will sometimes make you susceptible to a few big plays. That’s why the other identity stat is yards per play allowed – how many explosive plays the Irish allowed.
Overall, UMass put up 5.8 yards per play, which is not very good for ND to allow on a team like UMass. Allowing 5.8 yards per play on the season would rank you around 90th in the country.
Yes, they did have a quality receiver in Sharpe (who could play just about anywhere,) and a good quarterback for their level in Frohnapfel. Yes, they picked up some of their big play yardage on a trick play, and a single 83-yard touchdown run by Marquis Young.
But we can’t cherry-pick those plays out here, not with this discussion on this particular stat. We look at yards per play to see how explosive a team was, and if you take out their explosive plays or chalk them up as flukes – well, then of course you’re left with nothing. You could do that with this stat with every team in a game and not have anything left.
So yeah, did give up a couple big plays.
On the season, ND is allowing 5.1 yards per play, ranking 55th in the country.
Summary:
So a third of the way through the season, Notre Dame’s offense – by the numbers – looks like a national-title caliber offense. The defense has shown much improvement in being disruptive, which is a great start - but they still rank middle-of-the-pack nationally in yards per play allowed, and Clemson/Deshaun Watson & USC/Cody Kessler are now on the horizon.
Can the offense maintain this level of productivity? Can the defense keep up its level of disruptions against these quality offenses coming up, while working towards giving up less big plays? We'll find out soon enough.
The main takeaway for me as a numbers guy is now the season is already a third of the way through – we’re starting to really build some data - and Notre Dame now has leveled the strength of schedule stats playing field with some of the other leading programs out there after playing their one far inferior opponent in Week 4. So let’s take a brief look at the game, and also visit where ND ranks one-third of the way through the year.
Offense: Notre Dame put up 8.6 yards per play against the Minutemen, 681 yards in 79 plays. The Irish averaged 7.0 against Texas, 7.2 against Virginia, and 7.4 against Georgia Tech – so they’ve gotten better here every week, although that was expected against UMass this week. As has been noted each week for context, Oregon was the No. 2 offense nationally last year with 7.3 yards per play.
Interestingly, Notre Dame was actually more explosive on the ground than through the air. C.J Prosise’s 57-yard best was only the third-longest run on the day – Brandon Wimbush had a 58-yard carry, and Josh Adams took the top spot with a 70-yarder. In the end, ND averaged 9.0 yards per rush on 51 carries (!!). I know it’s only UMass, but still, that’s incredible.
On the season, Notre Dame now ranks No. 6 nationally averaging 7.6 yards per play, trailing Mississippi (7.6), Texas Tech (7.9), USC (8.0), Georgia (8.3), and Baylor (9.5). It’s important to take strength of schedule into account here still – Baylor’s played SMU, Lamar and Rice to-date, for example.
I have a story coming up on this in the next section of the magazine, so I don’t want to get too specific – but the last five national champions averaged 7.12 yards per play on the season, and only one champion (Alabama in 2011) ranked outside the Top 10 in this category (the Tide ranked No. 12 nationally in ’11). This stat – evaluating explosiveness, and to an extent efficiency – is clearly a commonality in contending and winning a national title, and the Irish are right there on pace where you want to be (well, at least on this side of the ball.)
Success Rate: I quit tracking when garbage time started (Notre Dame’s 28-point lead in the second half), but up to that point, I charted the Irish as successful on 40-of-56 plays, which is a 71 percent clip. This is an absurdly high efficient rate - for context, ND's success rate was 59 percent in a dominant performance against Texas.
On the season here, ND is about in the Top 25ish range. So the offense through four games has been both explosive and efficient.
Defense: The defense allowed 5.1 yards per rush and 6.3 yards per pass attempt to UMass – that’s a pretty bad rushing number to give up, especially considering the competition (6.3 yards per pass attempt allowed is actually pretty good though). Kelly said they wanted to make sure Sharpe didn’t wreck the game, and he was held to 83 yards on his eight catches – Coach D did point out in the press box that Sharpe beat ND on a few plays where Frohnapfel just couldn’t deliver the ball, so that has to be considered. The yards per pass attempt allowed might not have been as good had Frohnapfel had a better day throwing. Overall he was 20-for-40 for 233 yards and an interception.
For their combined yards per play and further analysis, refer to the Identity Stats below.
Success Rate: As mentioned earlier, I quit tracking when garbage time started (Notre Dame’s 28-point lead in the second half), but up to that point, I charted the Minutemen as successful on only 14-of-44 plays (32 percent), which is a good effort for the Irish. It’s not mindblowing good like the offense was – but it’s good.
What’s interesting is the comparison between standard downs and passing downs. We classify a passing down as a down/distance where a coach is almost forced to pass, as opposed to a standard down, where there’s an option to run OR pass. When the down/distance is long enough that a coach will often choose to pass, the defense can prepare accordingly for that and use it to their advantage. Passing downs for our system is any second-and-8 or longer, or third/fourth-and-5 or longer.
UMass was actually successful on 12-of-24 plays on standard downs, when they had some flexibility. 50 percent is actually a very respectable rate. When the Irish forced them into passing situations is where they really struggled – only 2-for-20.
Per Bill Connelly at SB Nation (link), ND actually ranks pretty good here at borderline Top 25 in the country. So they're pretty good at keeping guys behind the chains. It’s giving up big plays where the Irish struggle defensively (see below).
Identity Stats – Offense
Rushing Success Rate: This number measures how well Notre Dame stays ahead of the chains trying to move the ball on the ground. The talent and depth at offensive line, combined with the backfield and a dual-threat quarterback means the Irish really want to use that ground game in an efficient manner.
I charted the Irish as successful on 25-of-32 run plays entering garbage time – a 78 percent clip. This is an absurdly high productive performance. In the 32 carries I charted up to garbage time, only eight were for less than four yards. As Whipple said, Notre Dame’s offensive line had their way with UMass – which was to be expected.
Again per Connelly at SB Nation, Notre Dame ranks 26th nationally in rushing success rate to this point. 50.9 percent of their carries gain five yards or more, which ranks 2nd nationally.
Yards Per Pass Attempt: If Notre Dame can stay ahead of the chains like they want to consistently moving the ball on the ground, then that opens up some tremendous downfield possibilities. So what we want to measure is, when the Irish do decide to put the ball in the air, how many big plays can they pick up?
ND averaged 8.0 yards per pass attempt, which would put you right around the Top 25 nationally if you averaged that on the season. Kizer individually was 15-of-22 for 207 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. There wasn’t a super-long that we’ve grown used to seeing, but Fuller, Jones and Brown all reeled in at least one catch of 25+ yards.
On the season, Notre Dame is averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt, ranking No. 22 nationally.
Identity Stats – Defense
Havoc: Notre Dame wants to be aggressive on defense – so how can we try to measure that? Combining the total of tackles for loss, forced fumbles and passes defended into one number.
UMass called 77 plays on Saturday. The Irish were able to force nine tackles for loss, one forced fumble, and eight passes defensed, for 18 Havoc plays in 77 tries - a 23.4 percent clip.
This is their best effort of the season in this category. For context, Virginia ranked No. 4 in the country last year with a 21.0 percent clip on the season.
On the season, Notre Dame has a 19.6 percent Havoc rate, ranking No. 25 nationally per Bill Connelly. This is much improved from last season.
Yards Per Play Allowed: Playing an aggressive defense will sometimes make you susceptible to a few big plays. That’s why the other identity stat is yards per play allowed – how many explosive plays the Irish allowed.
Overall, UMass put up 5.8 yards per play, which is not very good for ND to allow on a team like UMass. Allowing 5.8 yards per play on the season would rank you around 90th in the country.
Yes, they did have a quality receiver in Sharpe (who could play just about anywhere,) and a good quarterback for their level in Frohnapfel. Yes, they picked up some of their big play yardage on a trick play, and a single 83-yard touchdown run by Marquis Young.
But we can’t cherry-pick those plays out here, not with this discussion on this particular stat. We look at yards per play to see how explosive a team was, and if you take out their explosive plays or chalk them up as flukes – well, then of course you’re left with nothing. You could do that with this stat with every team in a game and not have anything left.
So yeah, did give up a couple big plays.
On the season, ND is allowing 5.1 yards per play, ranking 55th in the country.
Summary:
So a third of the way through the season, Notre Dame’s offense – by the numbers – looks like a national-title caliber offense. The defense has shown much improvement in being disruptive, which is a great start - but they still rank middle-of-the-pack nationally in yards per play allowed, and Clemson/Deshaun Watson & USC/Cody Kessler are now on the horizon.
Can the offense maintain this level of productivity? Can the defense keep up its level of disruptions against these quality offenses coming up, while working towards giving up less big plays? We'll find out soon enough.
