Instead of breaking down stats from the USC game - with Notre Dame in the playoff hunt over halfway through the season - I thought it'd be fun to take a look at some of the Irish's statistical rankings I've been writing about here and see how they compared with 2014's playoff qualifiers.
**Many rankings here are courtesy of Bill Connelly at SBNation (link)
Offense
Yards per play: I like to use this to measure explosiveness, although there's certainly an efficiency component to it (negative yardage plays obviously hurts your yards per play). Nevertheless, the more big plays you can convert, the higher your yards per play are. And big plays can be huge for an offense's success.
2015 Notre Dame: 7.3 yards per play, tied for 7th nationally.
2014 Ohio State: 7.0 ypp, 6th nationally.
2014 Alabama: 6.7 ypp, 14th nationally.
2014 Florida State: 6.4 ypp, 25th nationally.
2014 Oregon: 7.3 ypp, tied for 2nd nationally.
Not much to complain about here. And these big plays aren't coming just through the air - C.J. Prosise ranks 2nd nationally in total number of rushing plays for 10+ yards (33 such occurrences). Fuller is tied for 4th nationally with 13 catches of 20+ yards.
Success Rate: This is an efficiency component to look at how well Notre Dame stays ahead of the chains.
2015 Notre Dame: 47.9 percent success rate, ranking 19th nationally.
2014 Ohio State: 51.2 percent, 3rd nationally.
2014 Alabama: 50.2 percent, 4th nationally.
2014 Florida State: 47.9 percent, 16th nationally.
2014 Oregon: 49.5 percent, 7th nationally.
Okay, so just a little bit behind Ohio State/Bama/Oregon here, but FSU got in with comparable productivity. Where Notre Dame must do better if they want to improve here is less negative plays.
"You know, we had a couple penalties there that put us behind," Brian Kelly said Sunday, when asked how the offense can improve. "Certainly, anytime you're talking about offensive production, it's limiting some of the negative plays, the penalties, the turnovers. I think as a big picture, limiting the negative plays and continue development at the quarterback position."
The stats back this up. Notre Dame gets stuffed - hit at or behind the line of scrimmage for zero/negative yards - on 21.2 percent of run plays, ranking 91st nationally. They also give up 2.1 sacks per game, ranking 70th nationally. These negative plays obviously hurt their ability to stay ahead of the chains.
So the Irish are knocking on the door here. If they want to break it down, just have to lower the negative plays - because otherwise, they move the ball great.
Defense
Yards per play allowed:
2015 Notre Dame: 5.6 yards per play allowed, tied for 69th nationally.
2014 Ohio State: 5.0, 25th nationally.
2014 Alabama: 4.9, 18th nationally.
2014 Florida State: 5.5, 63rd nationally.
2014 Oregon: 5.5, 64th nationally.
These numbers were very surprising to me. While obviously the ND defense could be much better here, two teams were able to get in last year with comparable numbers, and Ohio State/Alabama didn't rank in the top 15.
Anyway, where Notre Dame is getting killed this year is not big plays, but veryyyyy big plays.
Plays of 10+ yards allowed: 86, 63rd nationally.
Plays of 20+ yards allowed: 30, tied for 76th nationally.
Plays of 30+ yards allowed: 18, tied for 104th nationally.
Plays of 40+ yards allowed: 10, tied for 103rd nationally.
Plays of 50+ yards allowed: 6, tied for 105th nationally.
Success rate allowed: The Irish are giving up a 36.3 percent success rate, ranking 31st nationally.
2014 Ohio State: 38.9 percent allowed, 34th nationally.
2014 Alabama: 36.1 percent allowed, 15th nationally.
2014 Florida State: 41.7 percent allowed, 71st nationally.
2014 Oregon: 43.7 percent allowed, 94th nationally.
Doesn't seem to be any correlation here, heh. Teams all over the place made it in.
So, takeaways: looking at just numbers, Notre Dame's stats profile is strikingly similar to some of the teams that made the playoffs last year. But the Irish are about to go on the road for four of their final five games - can they maintain that productivity? I guess we'll see.
Lowering the negative plays offensively, and lowering the very long plays defensively would go a long way towards ensuring they get that shot at the playoffs.
**Many rankings here are courtesy of Bill Connelly at SBNation (link)
Offense
Yards per play: I like to use this to measure explosiveness, although there's certainly an efficiency component to it (negative yardage plays obviously hurts your yards per play). Nevertheless, the more big plays you can convert, the higher your yards per play are. And big plays can be huge for an offense's success.
2015 Notre Dame: 7.3 yards per play, tied for 7th nationally.
2014 Ohio State: 7.0 ypp, 6th nationally.
2014 Alabama: 6.7 ypp, 14th nationally.
2014 Florida State: 6.4 ypp, 25th nationally.
2014 Oregon: 7.3 ypp, tied for 2nd nationally.
Not much to complain about here. And these big plays aren't coming just through the air - C.J. Prosise ranks 2nd nationally in total number of rushing plays for 10+ yards (33 such occurrences). Fuller is tied for 4th nationally with 13 catches of 20+ yards.
Success Rate: This is an efficiency component to look at how well Notre Dame stays ahead of the chains.
2015 Notre Dame: 47.9 percent success rate, ranking 19th nationally.
2014 Ohio State: 51.2 percent, 3rd nationally.
2014 Alabama: 50.2 percent, 4th nationally.
2014 Florida State: 47.9 percent, 16th nationally.
2014 Oregon: 49.5 percent, 7th nationally.
Okay, so just a little bit behind Ohio State/Bama/Oregon here, but FSU got in with comparable productivity. Where Notre Dame must do better if they want to improve here is less negative plays.
"You know, we had a couple penalties there that put us behind," Brian Kelly said Sunday, when asked how the offense can improve. "Certainly, anytime you're talking about offensive production, it's limiting some of the negative plays, the penalties, the turnovers. I think as a big picture, limiting the negative plays and continue development at the quarterback position."
The stats back this up. Notre Dame gets stuffed - hit at or behind the line of scrimmage for zero/negative yards - on 21.2 percent of run plays, ranking 91st nationally. They also give up 2.1 sacks per game, ranking 70th nationally. These negative plays obviously hurt their ability to stay ahead of the chains.
So the Irish are knocking on the door here. If they want to break it down, just have to lower the negative plays - because otherwise, they move the ball great.
Defense
Yards per play allowed:
2015 Notre Dame: 5.6 yards per play allowed, tied for 69th nationally.
2014 Ohio State: 5.0, 25th nationally.
2014 Alabama: 4.9, 18th nationally.
2014 Florida State: 5.5, 63rd nationally.
2014 Oregon: 5.5, 64th nationally.
These numbers were very surprising to me. While obviously the ND defense could be much better here, two teams were able to get in last year with comparable numbers, and Ohio State/Alabama didn't rank in the top 15.
Anyway, where Notre Dame is getting killed this year is not big plays, but veryyyyy big plays.
Plays of 10+ yards allowed: 86, 63rd nationally.
Plays of 20+ yards allowed: 30, tied for 76th nationally.
Plays of 30+ yards allowed: 18, tied for 104th nationally.
Plays of 40+ yards allowed: 10, tied for 103rd nationally.
Plays of 50+ yards allowed: 6, tied for 105th nationally.
Success rate allowed: The Irish are giving up a 36.3 percent success rate, ranking 31st nationally.
2014 Ohio State: 38.9 percent allowed, 34th nationally.
2014 Alabama: 36.1 percent allowed, 15th nationally.
2014 Florida State: 41.7 percent allowed, 71st nationally.
2014 Oregon: 43.7 percent allowed, 94th nationally.
Doesn't seem to be any correlation here, heh. Teams all over the place made it in.
So, takeaways: looking at just numbers, Notre Dame's stats profile is strikingly similar to some of the teams that made the playoffs last year. But the Irish are about to go on the road for four of their final five games - can they maintain that productivity? I guess we'll see.
Lowering the negative plays offensively, and lowering the very long plays defensively would go a long way towards ensuring they get that shot at the playoffs.
