Can somebody provide the relative F+ of ND vs PSU heading into this game.
- Thread starter BGI User 1596
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I’m not sure we have anyone skilled enough to understand those analytics. I mean, it’s such a complicated system to understand. If only there was someone…
Looks like the (non-SEC biased) F+ now has Bama at #4. Chase at what point does this model stop reflecting the results of yesteryear? Do you realize ESPN uses this model to boost its bell cow conference to the detriment of teams like ND? Do you think that, while undoubtedly well intended, you may be complicit in this ruse?
Why is Illinois 42? Why is Navy 33 spots behind Oklahoma? Why is Michigan 26 spots behind Bama? Why are 5 of top 12 from SEC. Have you even watched the post-season? Even the SEC homers are saying the SEC is overrated this year. Texas is 2 and ASU is 21 despite the fact that Texas won in OT on bizarrely bad non-targeting call. It's insanity. And I am starting to think it's not just inefficient. I think it is rigged to support their product.
If Chase actually believed F+ he would be showing his winning bet slips. He was all about Fraud+ until ND moved inside its the top 5.
Last post. Chase, it may not be mutual, but I like you and enjoy your contributions. And it could be you are so invested in the rating that a reasonable critique is not possible. "It's hard to get a man to understand something another man is paying him not to understand." But surely you see the problem here.
F+ has OSU in a tier of their own at #1 and then ND is in the glut of next teams from 2-6.
Oregon, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Texas, PSU are all in that next tier.
Only two SEC teams (Ole Miss & Texas) are in the top 6.
I think people are mistaking the SEC for sucking because they dont have as many teams dominating the sport at the very top of the rankings as they usually do but its still by far the deepest conference in the sport and by far the best conference in the sport from a raw production and raw interconference record standpoint.
Also, the "opponent quality" component to F+ (which is a big part of the rating system) updates weekly/dynamically as more games are accrued every week and the system learns more about each team in the league which is why sometimes even when teams have a bad present-week performance, they can still improve their standing in the F+ system overall based on how their opponents on their schedule perform (which is why Ole Miss is now considered the 2nd best team in the country).
F+ has also gotten every single playoff game correct so far (every team F+ had ranked higher than their opponent has won their playoff games through the first 2 rounds)
With all that being said, ND is ranked higher than ever in F+, but OSU is now in a league of their own way out in front of everybody with the talent advantage on everybody that is still left in the playoff. They will be extremely difficult to knock off.
I like what the general data says about ND vs PSU (talent rankings, F+, FPi, oddsmakers, etc.) ... ND should win this game barring anything unforeseen or any really bad luck. But OSU is going to be a really tough hill to climb in a head to head matchup in the natty if OSU does indeed prevail Texas.
ND will be a big underdog to OSU and might even get ran over.
Oregon, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Texas, PSU are all in that next tier.
Only two SEC teams (Ole Miss & Texas) are in the top 6.
I think people are mistaking the SEC for sucking because they dont have as many teams dominating the sport at the very top of the rankings as they usually do but its still by far the deepest conference in the sport and by far the best conference in the sport from a raw production and raw interconference record standpoint.
Also, the "opponent quality" component to F+ (which is a big part of the rating system) updates weekly/dynamically as more games are accrued every week and the system learns more about each team in the league which is why sometimes even when teams have a bad present-week performance, they can still improve their standing in the F+ system overall based on how their opponents on their schedule perform (which is why Ole Miss is now considered the 2nd best team in the country).
F+ has also gotten every single playoff game correct so far (every team F+ had ranked higher than their opponent has won their playoff games through the first 2 rounds)
With all that being said, ND is ranked higher than ever in F+, but OSU is now in a league of their own way out in front of everybody with the talent advantage on everybody that is still left in the playoff. They will be extremely difficult to knock off.
I like what the general data says about ND vs PSU (talent rankings, F+, FPi, oddsmakers, etc.) ... ND should win this game barring anything unforeseen or any really bad luck. But OSU is going to be a really tough hill to climb in a head to head matchup in the natty if OSU does indeed prevail Texas.
ND will be a big underdog to OSU and might even get ran over.
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Well I don't think it's a fraud, it's just weighted heavily to reward elite recruits on your roster, one might imagine. So you'd just have to rejigger the inputs. And to de-emphasize recruiting rankings, which seems straightforward enough. And perhaps, jack up the relative algorithmic weights of coaching and conditioning. And that would be trickier and more elusive I would think. I'm not a software engineer.
But it would always be no more than an algorithm.
But it would always be no more than an algorithm.
No one is running us over
Did you see we have now beaten 8 top 50 teams in F+. Only 1 team has more
All that shit talking on our schedule didn't hold up
One part of the F+ ranking system is SP+ and SP+ "incorporates recruiting rankings" but only during the first half of the season when the system doesn't have much other data to work off of in their initial rankings of teams in the current season.
But over the course of the season, as the weeks/games/data pile up, this factor is weighted less and less to the point where it isn't incorporated at all.
At the week 19 point (which we are in now) the system isn't incorporating talent rankings at all. The system has teams ranked based purely on their performance/production during the season up to this point.
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ND has played back to back top 10 teams in recent weeks and won and TAM, Louisville, USC and Army have maintained top 15-top 30 rankings. At this point (based on NDs playoff performance) the respect/quality of their schedule has definitely increased but OSU is further ahead of the field than they have been at any point this season.
If ND doesn't beat OSU .. and worse if they get ran over by OSU we're back to square one banging our collective heads against the wall about how far away ND still is from winning a national championship (in the same way we were when Alabama ran over ND back in 2012)
This is not to bash ND, but to reinforce the point that we have to close the talent gap so that it increases the upside of the team during head to head games vs teams of OSUs quality (teams that are matching the coaching/player development side of the equation as well as ND is, but also just flat out out-talenting ND on the recruiting trail like OSU is)
Thanks I appreciate it. I respect the fact that you disagree in a constructive way and point out flaws in the logic and otherwise approach with an inquisitive disposition.
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Georgia was ranked 6th in F+ to NDs #4 F+ ranking (a full tenth of a point behind ND)
OSU is ranked #1 in F+ 5 tenths of a point ahead of ND
Big difference
Its not just the F+ difference to be worried about though, its the massive talent difference between these teams 85 man rosters that you have to be concerned about as well
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So, if we are fortunate enough to win the national championship, the quality bar will be moved up to teams like the Kansas City Chiefs.
The bar is to win a national title in college football.
Georgia is a really talented team but they haven't been the Georgia of old that won 2 of the last 3 national titles.
OSU is the new Georgia in 2024 (super talented roster firing on all cylinders, leading the field in F+, destined to win a national title)
ND is ranked higher in F+ this season than at any other point and has a better chance this year to win a national title than they have at any other point in the F+ era but does any of that make a difference if they face OSU in the national title game and lose, or worse, get ran over?
Hey buddy, we're all worried about it. It's not lost anyone, let's just be very clear about that. But once we beat PSU we will show up to play for the national championship! And I think I can remember being one sorry ass 4th down conversion away from beating the vaunted tOSU just a year ago. And Kyle McCord is better than Will Howard anyway. That's who holds tOSU back, that's who makes them beatable. And so we'll just see what happens. Even though lo, though the odds may be weighted so algorithmically against us.....
ND has won 9 straight vs the top 25. That equals elite. No amount of coaching or smoke & mirrors can produce that record. You gotta have the players with talent to go on that type of streak.
DL If Carter cant play Push
Lbs ND
Secondary ND
Oline Push
QB ND but close
RB if Love cant play Push
WR PSU
TE PSU
Special Teams ND
Coaching ND
