No, I wouldn't be happy with that finish. The only "pulls" in that whole group would be Lamb and Oweh, with major "misses" of very realistic players at:
- OT (Petit-Farar & Craig)
- DE (Booker & Addai)
- DT (Musthpher)
- LB (McGrone)
- CB (Johnson)
- S (Griffith)
Not to mention the "could gets" like St. Brown, Salyer, J. Smith, T. Smith, etv.
And it also lacks any "suprise gets", which obviously are uncommon, but most years have at least 1 of them
To me, that class is sort of the floor of what we would get this season as long as we're good enough to not have the entire staff fired
Assuming we win more than 8 games, I'm expecting a better class
- Petit-Frere is on my list.
- ND isn't taking Oweh, Booker, Ademilola and Ossai in the same class. No chance in hell they have any chance at 2 SDE and 2 WDE this cycle. Not enough room, nor will all those guys commit on top of each other. Even landing two of those 3 to add to Ademilola would be an enormous coup, as it would be to add Malik-McClain or Ojulari.
- Unless something changes, Mustipher isn't coming. The ND staff isn't overly high on him. They much prefer Franklin and Ademilola and that's warranted given that they were two of the best DT's at the Opening, while most people were unanimous in their thinking that Mustipher was the worst guy there and lacks a lot of upside. Since debuting as a top 50 recruit, he's steadily plummeted down the rankings. Notre Dave's interest in him fell off significantly when Elko arrived. Doesn't fit the system well.
- McGrone is and either / or with Lamb. ND only plays with two linebackers on the field and a Rover. Simon is going to be their take at Rover. Oghoufo is their Buck commitment and Bauer is their Mike commitment. They aren't taking 2 Bucks and 2 Mikes in the same cycle, with a Rover. You exchange McGrone's name for Lamb on my list and the class basically stays the same. I prefer Lamb because he has the frame and coverage skills to play Mike, Buck or Drop, where as McGrone is a Buck who might be able to play Rover. If ND is taking a 3rd backer (not even counting Simon) I want the guy who is most flexible. To me that's Lamb. I'm thrilled if they get McGrone or Lamb, but they won't get both.
- Johnson very well could be Irish but he's also close to committing to Iowa. Either way, he's a solid prospect, but nothing special. His offer list is highly underwhelming and he wouldn't have his 4 star ranking if he played in let's say Florida, Georgia or California. He would not be another solid, regional guy out there. Kyler Gordon is the better, more coveted prospect and even Donte Burton has better film, a national offer list and plays better competition. Much more highly coveted. Johnson is a decent take, but it's not a huge loss if he goes to Iowa, as long as ND can land any number of the suitable, and in my opinion, upgrades at corner.
- I'm with you 100% that Griffith would be a great pull. Right now things aren't looking good though. First he was All Notre Dame, then Ohio State, then Florida State and now Nebraska. The guy is all over the place. Kids like that don't often end up at Notre Dame, but I'm willing to hold my breath on Houston because I think he's the perfect FS compliment to Derrick Allen at SS, I just don't know that he's all that realistic.
Your "could get" list is interesting.
- I agree that landing St. Brown would be amazing. I'm not holding my breath. There are factors working against ND that are out of their control, namely finances and the cost for his parents of having Osiris at Stanford and him at Notre Dame and trying to get to both of their games... Really hope ND can overcome that, but I think he ends up at Stanford or USC (Trojans more than likely, IMO).
- Can Salyer be 2018's Stephon Tuitt? His recruitment reminds me of the three big time tackles that ND chased last year. One from Washington, one from Kentucky and one from Tennessee. All of them visited ND. All of them loved their trip to South Bend and Harry Hiestand. All of them stayed in their region to play for their home teams, as top flight offensive lineman often do... If Salyer leaves the South I think it will be for Notre Dame. But like Trey Smith, I'll belive that he's willing to cross the Mason-Dixon Line when I see it.
- Tyreke Smith has never visited Notre Dame, has cancelled multiple spring visits, told reporters they're not high on his list and released a list of top schools without ND on it... I don't think he belongs on a "could happen" list, at all.
- if "J. Smith" is Jahmir Smith, then "meh". Decent back. Not an enormous loss if ND doesn't land him. Not a class changer if they do. Just solid.
- Regarding a surprise get, I'll grant you that possibility as Notre Dame has been known to get a late flip. Maybe a Jevon Holland type or UCLA or Penn State type of guy. Whether or not the class gets better with a late flip usually has less to do with ND adding a marquee player late, but rather, targeting a late serviceable replacement when they strike out at a position they had other recruits higher on their board at. I'm with you though, it would be nice to win a ton of games and flip a guy late. A Bo Calvert type from USC, or maybe a high ranking DB late in the process.
So let me try to draw a realistic picture of a class you think is acceptable. Please let me know if you think it's accurate.
QB: Phil Jurkovec
RB: Markese Stepp
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR: Kevin Austin Jr
WR: Micah Jones
TE: George Takacs
TE: Tommy Tremble
OL: Nick Petit-Frere
OL: John Dirksen
OL: Cole Mabry
WDE: Jayson Oweh
SDE: Justin Ademilola
SDE: Thomas Booker
NG: Ja'mion Franklin
DT: Jayson Ademilola
Buck: Ovie Oghoufo
Mike: Bo Bauer
Rover: Shayne Simon
ATH: Cameron McGrone (in for Lamb)
ATH: Bo Calvert (example of a surprise)
CB: DJ Johnson
CB: Donte Burton
CB: Kyler Gordon
S: Derrik Allen
S: Houston Griffith
OK so that's a 25 man class that you seem to be realistically proposing. What I did was take half of your "major miss" list and add it to my group. I added McGrone, Booker and Griffith and left off Craig, Ossai and Mustipher. I think 50/50 is fare for the sake of this example.
I then went to your "could list" and I replaced Geordon Porter with Amon-Ra St. Brown. I think we can agree that it's fare to add only one player from the "could" list because the guys you are referring to are either 5 stars or guys ND has no chance at (T.Smith).
I then added Calvert as a high end surprise flip because the makes sense from a position sense, he has ND ties and is a high quality player ND would be looking for as an upgrade. Obviously he's jurt one example.
OK, so re-running the numbers with your 25 man class (which puts ND probably 3-4 players over the scholarship limit), the new composite total is...
279.98
That would be good enough for the #6 overall class last year.
I Sincerely want to be on board with you that ND can win 8+ games and land that class, or something very similar. That would be an incredible uptick in recruiting and, IMO, a tad unrealistic unless ND pulls some major upsets on the trail and wins more like 10+ games and spends the entire season in playoff contention
Adding Top 150 recruits
St. Brown
Austin Jr
Petit-Frere
Oweh
McGrone
Griffith
On top of
Jurkovec, Allen, Ademilola and Simon just seems a little bit like a reach given where ND is at... Maybe at Ohio State.
I hope you're right and I'm wrong.
