Why would a 1 loss ND be "out"?

[shooter1977]

vs. Michigan? ESPN has made this a talking point since October, and it's now being treated as gospel. But why? How would this be any different than 1993 when FSU got the nod over the team that beat them down.

Georgia getting in over a 1-loss ND makes sense. Even Ohio State, although that's debatable. But Michigan should not have a path over ND. Beating Northwestern in a neutral site game should not trump a head-to-head loss.

 

[hfhmilkman]

It is a theoretical debate because I have ND winning out at about 90% and UM winning at 50%. As a UM fan I would rather have ND win out with the chance that Clemson or Alabama get upset and take my chances of head to head of UM verses Alabama in a selection process. My reasoning is UM has a better chance of getting by Alabama by Alabama not getting selected than beating them.

But on to your question. The first issue is that the computer models whether you agree or not has UM rated over ND right now. The tie breaker is still wins. So as long as ND is undefeated I would say who cares what the model says. But if ND loses a game, the difference would be very large as ND would have a loss and UM would be giving OSU their 2nd loss and beat NW most likely decisively in the CCG.

In terms of other variables the UM loss was an away night game which is exceedingly difficult to win for two teams that are comparable in talent. The eyeball test also shows that UM as a team has made far more improvement as the season has progressed. One may argue Book has changed the UM offense. I would argue the entire UM offensive line has made an about face. We also have to remember that Patterson only had a few weeks of practice with his new team and has increased in efficiency as the season has progressed. UM's defense has been on an epic run despite a ton of injuries to the Dlineand secondary. That has rally surprised me.

For me personally I think it is lame to back in to the playoffs. If UM had beaten ND but loses to OSU, I would rather another one loss team get in that finished strong including ND. If you can't win your signature game with the world watching, you should not get in. So my advice is win your games and it is a non issue.

 

[twalsh]

If Bama, Clemson and Michigan all win out, it comes down to one loss Oklahoma v one loss ND, and maybe v undefeated UCF. We have a chance, but the end of Oklahoma's season is going to look very strong for them to stay a one loss team, and that might be the difference. But there's a chance.

 

[ivan brunetti]

In the simplest of terms, 12-1 would be better than 11-1. Just as 11-1 ND would be in ahead of 11-2 Michigan, and as 12-0 ND would be ahead of 12-1 Michigan.

Factor in SOS & MOV.

 

[d1042]

The only loss that a 1 loss ND tean can suffer would be to a team lower rated with no playoffs aspirations.
A late season loss is very costly. If at the end of 12 games if UGA and ND both are 1 loss teams and UGA incurs a closely played CCG with Bama, I think the committee discounts the game 13 loss to Bama and chooses UGA. UM cannot bump ND or a 1 loss UGA. In fact only UGA is a threat to ND. But even a Bama, Clemson, UGA situation, ND is in. B10 winner is odd man out. B12 has a defenseless claim. P12 is a mess.

 

[Buguit]

Because ND is not in a conference and all the committee members who get to vote are all affiliated with a conference ... and there is a lot of $$$ at stake and the committee members aren't going to let that much money go to a nonconference team ... let alone ND which a lot of people hate because it's ND

This bias has been going on since there have been polls .... this always happened before there was a playoff

 

[twalsh]

The only loss that a 1 loss ND tean can suffer would be to a team lower rated with no playoffs aspirations.
A late season loss is very costly. If at the end of 12 games if UGA and ND both are 1 loss teams and UGA incurs a closely played CCG with Bama, I think the committee discounts the game 13 loss to Bama and chooses UGA. UM cannot bump ND or a 1 loss UGA. In fact only UGA is a threat to ND. But even a Bama, Clemson, UGA situation, ND is in. B10 winner is odd man out. B12 has a defenseless claim. P12 is a mess.

I think UGA is out with a loss to Bama, regardless of the game. They still got spanked pretty good by LSU in their other loss.

 

[d1042]

So ND fans want the 13th game that ND does not want any part of to be a factor used against other teams?
Maybe the ND fan base’s perceived biases are not biases at all, but just rational impartial evaluation.

 

[notredamerises23]

Because the majority of the computer models would have us at about 10th with a loss (maybe lower), everything else being equal. If we lose, it’s over unless a whole bunch of strange things go down.

In overall efificiency, UM is 4th, OU 6th, ND 9th and that's with no loss.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/tab/efficiency

In FPI, it’s Georgia, Michigan, OU at 3rd, 4th, 5th—ND at 7th.

Currently, Georgia and UM are tied for 2nd in SRS, OU is 5th, slightly ahead of ND at 6th. A loss would push us back down the lost a bit.

In FEI, Georgia is 2nd, OU 4th, Michigan 5th, ND 6th.

The Colley matrix has us at 2nd; Georgia, UM, OU are at 4th, 5th, 6th. With a loss, we’d be 4th AT best and then drop to 5th after conference title games.

 

[1Redrum]

If ND loses late in the year they are out. If ND had lost to Michigan and won every other game (especially if USC, FSU or Stanford was also ranked / playing well) then they would be considered. I.E. ND loses a close game to Michigan, wins every other game and beats an undefeated or one loss USC to end the year the week after beating a top 15 Syracuse they would be the HOT team.

 

[echowaker]

If ND loses late in the year they are out. If ND had lost to Michigan and won every other game (especially if USC, FSU or Stanford was also ranked / playing well) then they would be considered. I.E. ND loses a close game to Michigan, wins every other game and beats an undefeated or one loss USC to end the year the week after beating a top 15 Syracuse they would be the HOT team.

all depends on what happens in the other conferences.there can easily be a two loss Big 12 and Pac 12 champ.

 

[lyonhawk]

There are a lot of variables, but I don't think a 1-loss ND is immediately out.

 

[ivan brunetti]

There are a lot of variables, but I don't think a 1-loss ND is immediately out.

If the rest of the favorites win out, I think they would be. Oklahoma beating WV twice, or Wazzu, would take the 4th slot.

 

[echowaker]

If the rest of the favorites win out, I think they would be. Oklahoma beating WV twice, or Wazzu, would take the 4th slot.

oklahoma yes, a one loss wash st would not jump a one loss nd.

 

[lyonhawk]

It would depend on the circumstances of ND's loss and OU's wins. If ND loses to Cuse by 3 because Ian Book sprained his ankle, but then comes back and beats USC by 20 and OU wins 2 games against WV 56-53, I think ND would still have a very strong case.

 

[IrishInOntario]

A conference championship serves as an extra data point that ND chooses not to allow itself to compete for. Therefore, if record's are equal, they'll give the edge to ND only if they have a head to head victory, up until the point that said team wins it's P5 conference championship. At that point, said team jumps ND...

ND's undefeated season is what is keeping it ahead (clearly). A loss would drop ND to around #8, and unless there was complete chaos, the highest they likely climb back to is #6.

Because of the scenarios (conference championships) these teams are all in ahead of ND if the Irish have a loss...

1. 12-1 Alabama
2. 12-1 Clemson
3. 12-1 Michigan
4. 12-1 Georgia
5. 12-1 Oklahoma
6. 12-1 Ohio State
7. 11-1 West Virginia (game cancelled)

12-1 Washington State would be debatable, but ND probably makes it because the PAC is soooo bad this year.

All of those above teams have key games left, including a conference championshio to play for against a quality opponent on the last week of the season, while ND is idle at home...

ND has to win out, or hope for complete Chaos down the stretch, otherwise they aren't in. Their SOS is not what they hooed it would be to overcome the 13th data point other 1 loss contenders have this year.

 

[lyonhawk]

A conference championship serves as an extra data point that ND chooses not to allow itself to compete for. Therefore, if record's are equal, they'll give the edge to ND only if they have a head to head victory, up until the point that said team wins it's P5 conference championship. At that point, said team jumps ND...

ND's undefeated season is what is keeping it ahead (clearly). A loss would drop ND to around #8, and unless there was complete chaos, the highest they likely climb back to is #6.

Because of the scenarios (conference championships) these teams are all in ahead of ND if the Irish have a loss...

1. 12-1 Alabama
2. 12-1 Clemson
3. 12-1 Michigan
4. 12-1 Georgia
5. 12-1 Oklahoma
6. 12-1 Ohio State
7. 11-1 West Virginia (game cancelled)

12-1 Washington State would be debatable, but ND probably makes it because the PAC is soooo bad this year.

All of those above teams have key games left, including a conference championshio to play for against a quality opponent on the last week of the season, while ND is idle at home...

ND has to win out, or hope for complete Chaos down the stretch, otherwise they aren't in. Their SOS is not what they hooed it would be to overcome the 13th data point other 1 loss contenders have this year.

I don't think we need complete chaos at all. If Bama beats Georgia, all we really need is OU/WVU to split their games. The top 4 would then be Bama, Clemson, B1G Champ (better for us if it's Mich) and probably ND. MAYBE Wazzu jumps us if they win out, but they have no quality wins at this point. If they beat Washington, the huskies probably fall out of the top 25 and they're not picking up a quality win in the Pac 12 CCG.

This all assumes we lose a game, which I don't think we will.

 

[GoldCountryND]

I love all the ‘extra data points’ argument after all those teams play FCS opponent at some point, usually late in the season. What a joke. ND should just start scheduling FCS team for easy W and it sits at 12-1 end of season. The committee NEVER seems to even mention it in their discussions or interviews.

 

[IrishInOntario]

I love all the ‘extra data points’ argument after all those teams play FCS opponent at some point, usually late in the season. What a joke. ND should just start scheduling FCS team for easy W and it sits at 12-1 end of season. The committee NEVER seems to even mention it in their discussions or interviews.

Nope. They don't care. Conferences matter to a lot of people. The conference commissioners run college football, not the NCAA. ND can only remain independent because of their brand power, but generally speaking, conferences are going to do everything in their power to get their teams into the college football playoff, and because they all play by the same rules (playing FCS programs) they aren't going to penalize schools for playing them. I think the fact that ND doesn't is awesome and admirable. That doesn't win you points or get you into the playoffs though beyond how it factors into your strength of schedule.

I've been screaming for years that ND puts itself at a huge disadvantage because it's forced to play a bear of a regular season schedule to make up for the 13th data that ND isn't eligible for.

I like that ND's independent. I wouldn't trade it for a conference. That said, it's understandable why ND often loses a game or two it shouldn't, when you compare it to some of the annual garbage schedules Ohio State or the Pac 12 champ play.

I don't think ND fans have the right to about how the playoff is governed when it's ND that chooses to play by it's own rules (no conference / conference championship). You can't bitch about 120+ other teams agreeing on parameters and not being too happy about having to treat ND like the special child, especially when there are millions of dollars on the line in association with a college football playoff birth.

 

[lyonhawk]

If the conference championships and extra data points mean so much, how have they let 2 teams in who didn't win their own divisions and had no extra data point? Also, the 13th data point this year in 3 of the 5 major conferences is basically worthless.

 

[ivan brunetti]

If the conference championships and extra data points mean so much, how have they let 2 teams in who didn't win their own divisions and had no extra data point? Also, the 13th data point this year in 3 of the 5 major conferences is basically worthless.

11-1 Ohio State had a better record than 11-2 Penn State. 11-1 Alabama got in ahead of two loss teams.

 

[Buguit]

There are a lot of variables, but I don't think a 1-loss ND is immediately out.

They shouldn't be .. but they will be because the system is biased

 

[Bluetongs]

Just like I cant see a 1 loss michigan team getting in over a 1 loss bama team, no way ND only drops 1 in ranking this late in the year against the teams left on their schedule. Not gonna happen

 

[echowaker]

Nope. They don't care. Conferences matter to a lot of people. The conference commissioners run college football, not the NCAA. ND can only remain independent because of their brand power, but generally speaking, conferences are going to do everything in their power to get their teams into the college football playoff, and because they all play by the same rules (playing FCS programs) they aren't going to penalize schools for playing them. I think the fact that ND doesn't is awesome and admirable. That doesn't win you points or get you into the playoffs though beyond how it factors into your strength of schedule.

I've been screaming for years that ND puts itself at a huge disadvantage because it's forced to play a bear of a regular season schedule to make up for the 13th data that ND isn't eligible for.

I like that ND's independent. I wouldn't trade is for a conference. That said, it's understandable why ND often loses a game or two is shouldn't, when you compare it to some of the annual garbage schedules Ohio State or the Pac 12 champ play.

I don't think ND fans have the right to about how the playoff is governed when it's ND that chooses to play by it's own rules (no conference / conference championship). You can't bitch about 120+ other teams agreeing on parameters and not being too happy about having to treat ND like the special child, especially when there are millions of dollars on the line in association with a college football playoff birth.

thats fair.

 

[hfhmilkman]

Just like I cant see a 1 loss michigan team getting in over a 1 loss bama team, no way ND only drops 1 in ranking this late in the year against the teams left on their schedule. Not gonna happen

If ND wins out they are in. I would argue UM is in over Bama. UM lost to a playoff team ND in week one and beat a contender OSU last week of regular season and won their CCG. Bama beat LSU a contender but lost to Georgia which won their CCG by beating Bama and is in.

If UM beat ND but lost to OSU I would agree one loss Bama more likely to be in. A win or loss at the end of the season has more weight because it occurs closer to the real state of the team.

Heck even with head to head if it came down to UM beating ND week one but UM losing to OSU end of week, I might say ND should be in because again a loss at the end of the year means more to me than head to head.

 

[twalsh]

Nope. They don't care. Conferences matter to a lot of people.

Many ND fans minimize the important of conferences, but the fans of other schools do not.

 

[twalsh]

If ND wins out they are in. I would argue UM is in over Bama. UM lost to a playoff team ND in week one and beat a contender OSU last week of regular season and won their CCG. Bama beat LSU a contender but lost to Georgia which won their CCG by beating Bama and is in.

If UM beat ND but lost to OSU I would agree one loss Bama more likely to be in. A win or loss at the end of the season has more weight because it occurs closer to the real state of the team.

Heck even with head to head if it came down to UM beating ND week one but UM losing to OSU end of week, I might say ND should be in because again a loss at the end of the year means more to me than head to head.

Georgia beating Bama is bad news for Michigan. I have no doubt about that.

 

[SiberianKnightmare]

Clemson and Michigan are the 2 Top 4 teams without a win over a Top 10 team. Why is ESPN not talking about that?

 

[twalsh]

Clemson and Michigan are the 2 Top 4 teams without a win over a Top 10 team. Why is ESPN not talking about that?

The top 10 have only lost a total of 8 games. So victories over top 10 teams are not easy to come by.

 

[tbonesays]

Clemson and Michigan are the 2 Top 4 teams without a win over a Top 10 team. Why is ESPN not talking about that?

Because they are beholden to the big conferences. The P5 control the dialogue and the CFP Playoff. If the roles were reversed exactly nobody of any consequence would suggest that ND's improvement would make up for a H2H loss.

 

[SiberianKnightmare]

The top 10 have only lost a total of 8 games. So victories over top 10 teams are not easy to come by.

I would assume Michigan's placement has more to do with their loss than any of their wins. Their best win is a 3 loss Penn St. It's the dreaded "Quality Loss" keeping them at #4.

 

[d1042]

Many ND fans minimize the important of conferences, but the fans of other schools do not.

As long as the committee properly weighs the CCGs when evaluating those teams with teams not in such a game then the correct decision is likely. For ND fans to say UGA is a 2 loss team if Bama beats them in a close hard fought CCG is totally biased. However if UGA or any team is blown out in a CCG then what would be the rational for putting them in a playoff spot?

What we know today is it looks like the B10 gets squeezed out.

 

[twalsh]

I would assume Michigan's placement has more to do with their loss than any of their wins. Their best win is a 3 loss Penn St. It's the dreaded "Quality Loss" keeping them at #4.

Same thing with us last year, until the Miami debacle.

 

[Bluetongs]

Clemson and Michigan are the 2 Top 4 teams without a win over a Top 10 team. Why is ESPN not talking about that?

Interesting take. Michigan was ranked in the mid teens when ND beat them. Not the same team from game 1. Some of the media members touting michigan should be ahead above ND is based on how they're playing right now. Michigsn will have its chance againest osu

 

[Bluetongs]

If ND wins out they are in. I would argue UM is in over Bama. UM lost to a playoff team ND in week one and beat a contender OSU last week of regular season and won their CCG. Bama beat LSU a contender but lost to Georgia which won their CCG by beating Bama and is in.

If UM beat ND but lost to OSU I would agree one loss Bama more likely to be in. A win or loss at the end of the season has more weight because it occurs closer to the real state of the team.

Heck even with head to head if it came down to UM beating ND week one but UM losing to OSU end of week, I might say ND should be in because again a loss at the end of the year means more to me than head to head.

Hope you're right but I just dont see it. I can hear the chants of a tainted championship if clearly the best team in the country isnt in the playoffs

 

[twalsh]

Hope you're right but I just dont see it. I can hear the chants of a tainted championship if clearly the best team in the country isn't in the playoffs

And who gets to decide that?

 

[Bluetongs]

And who gets to decide that?

Have you had a chance to see some of the top teams play this year? Obviously anything can happen in a single game elimination but just the eye test tells me bama is the best in the country

 

[francade]

So “ND doesn’t play by the rules” because we don’t wanna join a conference and therefore will get jumped w/o the 13th data point, but when bama gets in w/o even playing in their conference game, that’s playing by the rules? This 13th data point thing is a joke. It’s a glorified scrimmage for the P5 teams, but we’re getting thrown to the gutter w/ 1 loss compared to other teams w/ 1 loss because of it? Ridiculous. Thanks to all the posters that are saying we’re in if we go undefeated, btw. Thanks for throwing lowly ND a bone.

 

[d1042]

So “ND doesn’t play by the rules” because we don’t wanna join a conference and therefore will get jumped w/o the 13th data point, but when bama gets in w/o even playing in their conference game, that’s playing by the rules? This 13th data point thing is a joke. It’s a glorified scrimmage for the P5 teams, but we’re getting thrown to the gutter w/ 1 loss compared to other teams w/ 1 loss because of it? Ridiculous. Thanks to all the posters that are saying we’re in if we go undefeated, btw. Thanks for throwing lowly ND a bone.

The selection committee nor the rest of the college football world do not exist to look out for or give favor to ND.

 

[francade]

“The selection committee nor the rest of the college football world do not exist to look out for or give favor to ND.”

Who said “look out for or give favor to ND”?

I get it. It’s fair for bama not to have a 13th data point, but not for ND. That appears as though the selection committee is “looking out” for bama in that regard, don’t you think?