Why are the rankings seriously flawed

[Patrirish]

When a team ranked 20th is favored by 3 points over a team ranked 7th, something is wrong in Denmark.

The people ranking the teams are amateurs !

The people who set the spread are professionals !

The professionals should identify the 12 best teams at the end of the season and seed them for the playoffs

The professionals have no inherent bias

The amateurs don’t have enough data and they are inherently biased

Will the professionals ever determine who gets into the playoffs and where they’re seeded ?

 

[Chitown11]

Thats why I took the moneyline +130 on ND for $500. Im just not buying the AM hype

 

[Holycrossover3]

Home field advantage plays into spreads a decent amount in college. Most big games would be 3pts different at a neutral field. Obviously another 3pts if they swapped.

So if Texas A&M was visiting ND, we very easily may be -3 this week.

All in all, rankings this early are more so to produce TV ratings early in the season. None of it matters today.

 

[Golson5]

When a team ranked 20th is favored by 3 points over a team ranked 7th, something is wrong in Denmark.

The people ranking the teams are amateurs !

The people who set the spread are professionals !

The professionals should identify the 12 best teams at the end of the season and seed them for the playoffs

The professionals have no inherent bias

The amateurs don’t have enough data and they are inherently biased

Will the professionals ever determine who gets into the playoffs and where they’re seeded ?

And if ND beats up on TX Am, will you say the amateurs were right and the Professionals were wrong?

Another stupid post

 

[tkirish]

First games are so unpredictable. Do not discount that A&M has some serious talent. Fisher recruited well. Elko may be what the doctor ordered. ND will have to play really well to win. The odds makers know that

 

[hoopsstar12]

Historically, ND has struggled on the road against aggressive defenses except for Lou Holtz teams who would run the opposing defense into submission. Look at Louisville last year. Aside from the home advantage, can ND win a road game in a tough environment and protect the football against Elko? The odds makers don't think so but ND is ranked according to talent and experience which on paper looks better by 13 places in the imaginary poll I guess.

 

[sjb75]

And if ND beats up on TX Am, will you say the amateurs were right and the Professionals were wrong?

Another stupid post

Based on the personnel of the two teams, I doubt seriously if Notre Dame will “…beat up…” TAM.

Hope you’re correct. I seriously doubt it.

 

[Patrirish]

And if ND beats up on TX Am, will you say the amateurs were right and the Professionals were wrong?

Another stupid post

We agree, you’ve made another stupid post !

 

[Golson5]

We agree, you’ve made another stupid post !

What will you say then?

 

[Golson5]

Based on the personnel of the two teams, I doubt seriously if Notre Dame will “…beat up…” TAM.

Hope you’re correct. I seriously doubt it.

Do you understand the word if ?

 

[Patrirish]

What will you say then?

I’ll say the following:

The Las Vegas oddsmakers aren’t perfect, they are not right 100% of the time.
But they are right the majority of the time

They didn’t spend billions building fabulous hotel/casinos because they were wrong
They don’t send Jets and limos to bring gamblers to the casinos because they’re losing money because they set the wrong lines

It’s idiots like you who don’t understand the laws of large numbers and that exceptions don’t make the rule.

But since you’re so knowledgeable, let’s do this.
Every week a few hours before Vegas sets the line on the Notre Dame game, why don’t you set the line, and then after Vegas sets the line, I’ll bet you on every game.

So what do you say big mouth?
Are you ready to put your cash behind that big mouth?
Let me know if you’ll accept my offer
If you decline, it’s proof positive that you’re a a legend in your own mind and a fraud

 

[echowaker]

I’ll say the following:

The Las Vegas oddsmakers aren’t perfect, they are not right 100% of the time.
But they are right the majority of the time

They didn’t spend billions building fabulous hotel/casinos because they were wrong
They don’t send Jets and limos to bring gamblers to the casinos because they’re losing money because they set the wrong lines

It’s idiots like you who don’t understand the laws of large numbers and that exceptions don’t make the rule.

But since you’re so knowledgeable, let’s do this.
Every week a few hours before Vegas sets the line on the Notre Dame game, why don’t you set the line, and then after Vegas sets the line, I’ll bet you on every game.

So what do you say big mouth?
Are you ready to put your cash behind that big mouth?
Let me know if you’ll accept my offer
If you decline, it’s proof positive that you’re a a legend in your own mind and a fraud

Turd alert.

 

[Shakin' Down the Thunder]

Call me a conspiracy theorist. I'm pretty sure the "professionals" are being paid to hype up the game and bait people into talking and ultimately betting on the games.

 

[Golson5]

I’ll say the following:

The Las Vegas oddsmakers aren’t perfect, they are not right 100% of the time.
But they are right the majority of the time

They didn’t spend billions building fabulous hotel/casinos because they were wrong
They don’t send Jets and limos to bring gamblers to the casinos because they’re losing money because they set the wrong lines

It’s idiots like you who don’t understand the laws of large numbers and that exceptions don’t make the rule.

But since you’re so knowledgeable, let’s do this.
Every week a few hours before Vegas sets the line on the Notre Dame game, why don’t you set the line, and then after Vegas sets the line, I’ll bet you on every game.

So what do you say big mouth?
Are you ready to put your cash behind that big mouth?
Let me know if you’ll accept my offer
If you decline, it’s proof positive that you’re a a legend in your own mind and a fraud

We tried making a bet last season and you changed it and looked like an idiot. Then got the thread locked

You're a fraud.

You used this game to say Vegas knows more than the "amateurs" but if the amateurs get it right you won't say shit

The idea and statement was stupid. Like yourself

 

[chaseball]

Thats why I took the moneyline +130 on ND for $500. Im just not buying the AM hype

It isn't A&M hype. Nobody thinks A&M is that good. It's lack of respect for ND. A lot of talking heads think ND is overhyped/overrated (and apparently Vegas does too based on the spread)

 

[BGI User 756]

Based on the personnel of the two teams, I doubt seriously if Notre Dame will “…beat up…” TAM.

Hope you’re correct. I seriously doubt it.

You just can’t stay away from any thread….

 

[BGI User 756]

It isn't A&M hype. Nobody thinks A&M is that good. It's lack of respect for ND. A lot of talking heads think ND is overhyped/overrated (and apparently Vegas does too based on the spread)

lol. Prime time is here boys and girls

 

[NDinNJ]

Vegas got this one wrong.

ND - 34
A&M - 17

 

[Patrirish]

We tried making a bet last season and you changed it and looked like an idiot. Then got the thread locked

You're a fraud.

You used this game to say Vegas knows more than the "amateurs" but if the amateurs get it right you won't say shit

The idea and statement was stupid. Like yourself

Your ignorance knows no bounds !

So it’s your position that the amateurs know more about betting football games than the professional odds makers in Las Vegas.

That speaks volumes to your incredible stupidity

My initial statement was accurate

The amateurs who ranked the teams have Texas A&M as number 20 and Notre Dame as number 7, the professionals have Texas A&M favored by 3 points.

At Best, home-field advantage is worth 3 points, ergo, on a neutral field, both teams would be equal, yet the amateur people ranking the teams have Texas A&M at number 20 and Notre Dame at number 7

Have someone who knows something about football explain the inherent conflict to you

 

[Patrirish]

Turd alert.

Your reply speaks volumes regarding your command of the English language, but then again you did go to Michigan State ………… but evidently you didn’t attend classes !

 

[NDinNJ]

"While exact figures vary, "Vegas" (meaning Las Vegas sportsbooks) is generally considered to be correct on college football betting lines around 52-53% of the time; this means they accurately predict the outcome of a game slightly more than half the time, which is designed to ensure their profit margin by attracting roughly equal bets on both sides of the line.

Key points to remember:

Not aiming for perfect accuracy:
Sportsbooks aren't trying to pick winners every time, but rather set lines that incentivize balanced betting on both sides, allowing them to profit regardless of who wins.

Profit margin built-in:
The odds are always slightly skewed in favor of the house, meaning even if they are "correct" on 50% of bets, they still make money.

Line movement:
Lines can fluctuate based on public betting trends, so the odds you see initially might not be the final line."

 

[Patrirish]

"While exact figures vary, "Vegas" (meaning Las Vegas sportsbooks) is generally considered to be correct on college football betting lines around 52-53% of the time; this means they accurately predict the outcome of a game slightly more than half the time, which is designed to ensure their profit margin by attracting roughly equal bets on both sides of the line.

Key points to remember:

Not aiming for perfect accuracy:
Sportsbooks aren't trying to pick winners every time, but rather set lines that incentivize balanced betting on both sides, allowing them to profit regardless of who wins.

Profit margin built-in:
The odds are always slightly skewed in favor of the house, meaning even if they are "correct" on 50% of bets, they still make money.

Line movement:
Lines can fluctuate based on public betting trends, so the odds you see initially might not be the final line."

Actually, Las Vegas predicts the score of every game with their opening line and O/U.

After the opening line and O/U have been set, they move based on the flow of incoming bets

Las Vegas’s winning percentage, absent the adjustment for the points is significantly higher than indicated.

If you’ve visited Las Vegas you know that they are not losing money and that gambling is a very profitable business.

 

[BaldyNd]

I’m more surprised at the discrepancy between the line and the computer models, which have ND favored to win at 59%.

 

[NDinNJ]

Actually, Las Vegas predicts the score of every game with their opening line and O/U.

After the opening line and O/U have been set, they move based on the flow of incoming bets

Las Vegas’s winning percentage, absent the adjustment for the points is significantly higher than indicated.

If you’ve visited Las Vegas you know that they are not losing money and that gambling is a very profitable business.

They are guaranteed to win, regardless of the outcome of the game simply based on the vig. They make hundreds of thousands on each game on the vig alone.

 

[Chitown11]

It isn't A&M hype. Nobody thinks A&M is that good. It's lack of respect for ND. A lot of talking heads think ND is overhyped/overrated (and apparently Vegas does too based on the spread)

LMFAO, are you for real?

 

[Golson5]

When a team ranked 20th is favored by 3 points over a team ranked 7th, something is wrong in Denmark.

The people ranking the teams are amateurs !

The people who set the spread are professionals !

The professionals should identify the 12 best teams at the end of the season and seed them for the playoffs

The professionals have no inherent bias

The amateurs don’t have enough data and they are inherently biased

Will the professionals ever determine who gets into the playoffs and where they’re seeded ?

We won by 10. They were favored by 3. They were off by 13 points

Amateurs were right. Professionals were wrong

Glad the Amateurs are picking the 12

 

[NDinNJ]

We won by 10. They were favored by 3. They were off by 13 points

Amateurs were right. Professionals were wrong

Glad the Amateurs are picking the 12

And Vegas still made money off this game, regardless if they were wrong.

 

[BGI User 756]

"While exact figures vary, "Vegas" (meaning Las Vegas sportsbooks) is generally considered to be correct on college football betting lines around 52-53% of the time; this means they accurately predict the outcome of a game slightly more than half the time, which is designed to ensure their profit margin by attracting roughly equal bets on both sides of the line.

Key points to remember:

Not aiming for perfect accuracy:
Sportsbooks aren't trying to pick winners every time, but rather set lines that incentivize balanced betting on both sides, allowing them to profit regardless of who wins.

Profit margin built-in:
The odds are always slightly skewed in favor of the house, meaning even if they are "correct" on 50% of bets, they still make money.

Line movement:
Lines can fluctuate based on public betting trends, so the odds you see initially might not be the final line."

You called this

 

[Golson5]

And Vegas still made money off this game, regardless if they were wrong.

I know. That wasn't my debate

 

[Fightingirish595]

And Vegas still made money off this game, regardless if they were wrong.

The pros set the closing line. Not Vegas

 

[echowaker]

And Vegas still made money off this game, regardless if they were wrong.

Exactly. Vegas sets the line to attract bettors both ways. Just another in a long, long list of truly nonsensical threads from a poster who desperately needs a copy of "Football for Dummies".