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Week 1 odds out in Vegas. Notre Dame favored by 7 over Michigan!

Sporty702

ND Fan
Gold Member
May 18, 2017
28
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South Point in Vegas released odds for week 1:

Notre Dame -7 over Michigan (shocked by this)
Texas -12 over Maryland
Arizona -14 over BYU
Auburn PK vs Washington
California -5 over North Carolina
Alabama -20 over Louisville
Miami FLA -3 over LSU
Florida State PK vs Virginia Tech

Complete list of College Football Week 1 Odds
 
i'm thinking more now that if Wimbush gets more accurate throwing the ball that this game can be a blowout with Michigan having a really bad offense which includes a horrible OL that doesn't have one guy that could start for our irish right now
 
Notre Dame -7 over Michigan (been bet down to a pick)

Texas -12 over Maryland (down to -9)

Arizona -14 over BYU (now -15)

Auburn PK vs Washington (Auburn -2)

California -5 over North Carolina (Cal now -7)

Alabama -20 over Louisville (Bama now -25)

Miami FLA -3 over LSU (no change)

Florida State PK vs Virginia Tech (FSU up to-4)
 
I don't bet on ND as a rule, but there is a harbough effect here.. everyone expects him to turn it around, along with the Amazon show I'm sure tons of money is flowing to the Michigan side which is responsible for the line shift . If I did bet on ND games, I would take ND all day, for the simple reason that I don't think Harbough has a damn clue what he's doing in Michigan.
 
If I did bet on ND games, I would take ND all day, for the simple reason that I don't think Harbough has a damn clue what he's doing in Michigan.

Harbaugh's last three seasons at Michigan: .717 winning percentage.
Kelly's last three seasons at ND: .632 winning percentage.
 
Harbaugh's last three seasons at Michigan: .717 winning percentage.
Kelly's last three seasons at ND: .632 winning percentage.

Look at the schedules.

ND’s was #1 last year. And was ranked top 20 all three seasons. Michigan has one season at 20.
The team Michigan lost to at home last year ND destroyed on the road.

Michigan just cancelled a series with VT & replaces them with Arkansas St. the same month ND announced a series with Alabama.

ND is 3-2 against its historic rivals in that period & Michigan is 1-5.

ND played 7 top 25 teams in the final poll & beat 4 of them. Michigan went 0-4 against ranked teams.

Schedules matter a lot...
 
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Look at the schedules.

ND’s was #1 last year. And was ranked top 20 all three seasons. Michigan has one season at 20.
The team Michigan lost to at home last year ND destroyed on the road.

Michigan just cancelled a series with VT & replaces them with Arkansas St. the same month ND announced a series with Alabama.

ND is 3-2 against its historic rivals in that period & Michigan is 1-5.

ND played 7 top 25 teams in the final poll & beat 4 of them. Michigan went 0-4 against ranked teams.

Schedules matter a lot...

lol, not to that extent. I have looked at the schedules. ND hasn't played that much of a tougher slate. Didn't even have to play a bowl game two years ago. Seems like you are only considering last year and not all three. Wonder why...?
 
lol, not to that extent. I have looked at the schedules. ND hasn't played that much of a tougher slate. Didn't even have to play a bowl game two years ago. Seems like you are only considering last year and not all three. Wonder why...?
Is this real life?
or are you joking?
 
lol, not to that extent. I have looked at the schedules. ND hasn't played that much of a tougher slate. Didn't even have to play a bowl game two years ago. Seems like you are only considering last year and not all three. Wonder why...?

What? LOL

You continuously make a fool of yourself on here.
You looked at the schedules huh?
If so you would see the huge difference

And I didn’t just include last year, did you even read the post? I included all 3 years you mentioned.

In that 3 year span ND had a top 20, a top 15 & the #1 ranked achedule. Michigan had one top 20 schedule total. And ND actually beat ranked opponents over that span. Michigan didn’t.

ND played 5 ranked opponents in 2015.
ND played 4 ranked opponents in 2016.
ND played 7 ranked opponents in 2017.

16 total. Won 10.

Michigan played 5, 3 & 4 (12 total) & won 4.

So in that timeframe ND beat 10 ranked teams & Michugan beat 4.

If you look at end of season SOS over that span ND is top 10, Michigan barely cracked top 30.

But yeah, it’s really close.

But the important thing is Michigan never sniffed the CFP, finishing 3rd, 3rd & 4th in the East Division (5th, 5th & 6th in Confetence).

Two out of those three seasons ND was ranked multiple weeks on the top 4 of the CFP.

Sidenote: you have to take the time to look up final rankings, not just Wikipedia the schedule because that is rankings before the game. So Michigan beating the preseason ranked Florida last year doesn’t count as beating a ranked opponent since Florida was a dumpster fire and finished well below .500
 
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Still, in the three seasons, Harbaugh still looks like he "knows what he is doing" more so than Kelly. 8-5 tops 4-8; no matter how you may spin.
 
Still, in the three seasons, Harbaugh still looks like he "knows what he is doing" more so than Kelly. 8-5 tops 4-8; no matter how you may spin.

And being in the CFP (which is all that matters) top 4 in 2 of 3 seasons tops NEVER being in it...
Spin that?
 
And being in the CFP (which is all that matters) top 4 in 2 of 3 seasons tops NEVER being in it...
Spin that?

Kelly was in the CFP the past 3 years? I must have missed that.

If you want to go back further than that, getting to the Super Bowl >>> getting embarrassed by Bama.
 
Kelly was in the CFP the past 3 years? I must have missed that.

If you want to go back further than that, getting to the Super Bowl >>> getting embarrassed by Bama.

As I stated further up in this discussion ND spent multiple weeks in the CFP top 4 in two of three seasons, which means they were legitimately competing for a title. Michigan never sniffed it.

And we are talking college, not pro. Harbaugh got sent packing from the 49ers...LOL

You are getting close to being sent to the sane cornfield as Bubba...
 
Still, in the three seasons, Harbaugh still looks like he "knows what he is doing" more so than Kelly. 8-5 tops 4-8; no matter how you may spin.
Back away from the Koolaid. Very, very slowly.
Have you lately attended any sessions in logic from one BubbaJ?
There is help for you my friend.
 
Ivan, you are the same poster who came on this board 9 months before ND’s appeal was even heard & stated as fact it had been denied.
Then after the actual facts were presented to you that the case wasn’t even scheduled to be heard for months, you ADMITTED you were wrong & apologized.
Then months later, when the case was actually heard, then ruled on, you came back on & told everybody “told you so” even though you had previously admitted you didn’t know because the case hadn’t been heard yet... That is the exact definition of a troll & why you are already on thin ice here.
I warned you then, just as I repeatedly warned BubbaJ. I warned him publicly multiple times & even privately & he just scoffed at me. Now he is gone. And the last 15-20 threads he started are deleted. The other Michigan fan on here recently has been actually discussing football, even if I don’t agree with his analysis, he isn’t a troll. Stop being a troll...
 
As I stated further up in this discussion ND spent multiple weeks in the CFP top 4 in two of three seasons, which means they were legitimately competing for a title. Michigan never sniffed it.

And we are talking college, not pro. Harbaugh got sent packing from the 49ers...LOL

You are getting close to being sent to the sane cornfield as Bubba...

Ha. "Multiple weeks in the top four". And this after your post script of "you have to go by end of the year rankings!" I will give you this much, you are a NC caliber spinner.

Overall record tells the story. Yes, Kelly had the better season; but that 4-8 stinker puts his three year average in the crapper.

.717 > .632 .

24-16-1 all time.
 
Ivan, you are the same poster who came on this board 9 months before ND’s appeal was even heard & stated as fact it had been denied.
Then after the actual facts were presented to you that the case wasn’t even scheduled to be heard for months, you ADMITTED you were wrong & apologized.
Then months later, when the case was actually heard, then ruled on, you came back on & told everybody “told you so” even though you had previously admitted you didn’t know because the case hadn’t been heard yet... That is the exact definition of a troll & why you are already on thin ice here.
I warned you then, just as I repeatedly warned BubbaJ. I warned him publicly multiple times & even privately & he just scoffed at me. Now he is gone. And the last 15-20 threads he started are deleted. The other Michigan fan on here recently has been actually discussing football, even if I don’t agree with his analysis, he isn’t a troll. Stop being a troll...

How was my comparing the last three seasons "not discussing football"? Stop being a hypersensitive baby.
 
24-16-1 all time.

Congrats on those 8 wins in 7 years in the 1890’s that were scrimmages & not even full games. And then congrats on Yost refusing to play Rockne. And Michigan refusing to play ND a combined 78 years when ND had legacies Under Rockne, Leahy, Ara...

Congrats on the .5 national titles in 75 years.

Congrats on the 38% African American Football graduation rate the Feds actually had to come & investigate.
 
Congrats on those 8 wins in 7 years in the 1890’s that were scrimmages & not even full games. And then congrats on Yost refusing to play Rockne. And Michigan refusing to play ND a combined 78 years when ND had legacies Under Rockne, Leahy, Ara...

Congrats on the .5 national titles in 75 years.

Congrats on the 38% African American Football graduation rate the Feds actually had to come & investigate.

Congrats on going from number one in winning percentage to, what are you now, fourth?
 
Harbaugh : benefits three 10 win seasons not bad. I would like that as a fan.
detriments: number of big wins? Who have they defeated? Ohio State, Wisky, Mich St, Penn State, Just an FYI Mich st has defeated Ohio State twice, Iowa has one once. Clearly, Michigan schedule is not as strong as Notre Dame's pretty much any year. that influences three 10 win seasons.

I am not saying Harbaugh is a bad coach but he is the media darling and he gets over-hyped and then we get the Michigan drones over here to make it worse
 
Harbaugh : benefits three 10 win seasons not bad. I would like that as a fan.
detriments: number of big wins? Who have they defeated? Ohio State, Wisky, Mich St, Penn State, Just an FYI Mich st has defeated Ohio State twice, Iowa has one once. Clearly, Michigan schedule is not as strong as Notre Dame's pretty much any year. that influences three 10 win seasons.

I am not saying Harbaugh is a bad coach but he is the media darling and he gets over-hyped and then we get the Michigan drones over here to make it worse

Harbaugh doesn’t have three 10 win seasons at Michigan, he has two.

And he has beat a combined 4 ranked teams in those three years. (ND beat that many this year).
 
Kelly was in the CFP the past 3 years? I must have missed that.

If you want to go back further than that, getting to the Super Bowl >>> getting embarrassed by Bama.

Every other school would have loved to be in the BCSCG.
 
Every other school would have loved to be in the BCSCG.

That’s every hater of ND’s theme “you got blown out in a title game.”

Being in the game means you have an infinite better chance of winning a title than not being there.

It’s the “man in the arena” scenario. You can’t win if you aren’t in it.
 
Harbaugh doesn’t have three 10 win seasons at Michigan, he has two.

And he has beat a combined 4 ranked teams in those three years. (ND beat that many this year).

sorry about that oh they were 8-5 last year my bad :) so used to the hype
 
I have quoted the book “Natural Enemies” multiple times on here that was co-authored by Michigan & ND coaches & AD’s about the rivalry. And how Michigan refused to play ND for decades & decades. And how Michigan & ND scrimmaged in the 1890’s when ND students were learning the game & Yost later had then turned into official games to give Michigan more wins.

But I will put out a few other facts that I have always found interesting after reading historical college football books.

Michigan is among the list of teams that credits themselves with more titles than they are credited with. ND is the only team who credits themselves with less.

Michigan gives themselves any tithe awarded by ANY poll dating back to 1880. ND only awards themselves consensus national titles.
That is why everybody else awards ND 13, but ND only accepts the 11 consensus. If ND did what Michigan did (any poll) ND would have 22 National Titles.

Second thing I find interesting is the ability of Michigan to avoid ND for over 75 years. ND is the only team to play for or win a title in consistently for over 100 years.
Going back to the 1910’s, ND has played for a National Title on the final weekend every decade but one. They did in the 1910’s, ‘20’s, 30’s, 40’s, 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, 90’s & 2010’s. And if not for the Bush Push in 2005 ND would have in the 2000’s too (which is the only decade they didn’t).
Michigan refused to play ND during Rockne’s dominance between 1919 & 1930. During the 40’s Michigan cancelled the series again with Leahy’s ND teams. And when ND demolished teams Michigan struggled against, Michigan still tried to claim titles in years ND was awarded the consensus title. Michigan still claims them.
Michigan never played Ara’s dominant ND teams.
The only legendary ND coach Michigan played was Holtz, in which Holtz has a winning record.
Since the teams started playing in modern times, the series is actually tied, despite Michigan never playing 3 of the greatest college football legacies ever (3 different ND dominant decades). Michigan did take advantage of three of the worst ND coaches ever, despite not playing ND during down Michigan times.

If ND & Michigan played every year since 1900 the series would be much, much different. ND would have a dominant lead, much like they do against USC. Even though ND had a down period, over the 100 years ND still was the overall dominant program against USC. The same would be true with Michigan.

Just the Rockne years alone would have ND i the series.
 
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I have quoted the book “Natural Enemies” multiple times on here that was co-authored by Michigan & ND coaches & AD’s about the rivalry. And how Michigan refused to play ND for decades & decades. And how Michigan & ND scrimmaged in the 1890’s when ND students were learning the game & Yost later had then turned into official games to give Michigan more wins.

But I will put out a few other facts that I have always found interesting after reading historical college football books.

Michigan is among the list of teams that credits themselves with more titles than they are credited with. ND is the only team who credits themselves with less.

Michigan gives themselves any tithe awarded by ANY poll dating back to 1880. ND only awards themselves consensus national titles.
That is why everybody else awards ND 13, but ND only accepts the 11 consensus. If ND did what Michigan did (any poll) ND would have 22 National Titles.

Second thing I find interesting is the ability of Michigan to avoid ND for over 75 years. ND is the only team to play for or win a title in consistently for over 100 years.
Going back to the 1910’s, ND has played for a National Title on the final weekend every decade but one. They did in the 1910’s, ‘20’s, 30’s, 40’s, 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, 90’s & 2010’s. And if not for the Bush Push in 2005 ND would have in the 2000’s too (which is the only decade they didn’t).
Michigan refused to play ND during Rockne’s dominance between 1919 & 1930. During the 40’s Michigan cancelled the series again with Leahy’s ND teams. And when ND demolished teams Michigan struggled against, Michigan still tried to claim titles in years ND was awarded the consensus title. Michigan still claims them.
Michigan never played Ara’s dominant ND teams.
The only legendary ND coach Michigan played was Holtz, in which Holtz has a winning record.
Since the teams started playing in modern times, the series is actually tied, despite Michigan never playing 3 of the greatest college football legacies ever (3 different ND dominant decades). Michigan did take advantage of three of the worst ND coaches ever, despite not playing ND during down Michigan times.

If ND & Michigan played every year since 1900 the series would be much, much different. ND would have a dominant lead, much like they do against USC. Even though ND had a down period, over the 100 years ND still was the overall dominant program against USC. The same would be true with Michigan.

Just the Rockne years alone would have ND i the series.

Lots of blarney in this post. (We didn't play ND during Rich Rod's tenure?) Especially the split title of 1947. Yes, Michigan and ND played a few of the same teams (Pitt, USC & Northwestern). And Michigan beat ALL those teams by wider margins.

Should be a good game to start the season. As I stated in my first post, ND being favored by seven was not a serious line. Probably changed it down to ND -1 after the first bet.

Also, since you are interested in the APR ratings:
https://www.sbnation.com/platform/a...26366/bowl-eligibility-2018-apr-ncaa-rankings
 
Congrats on going from number one in winning percentage to, what are you now, fourth?
Thank you! It takes more character to self report violations in an effort to provide a legitimate degree than to offer kindergarten classes and to fail those students athletes who have put their trust in you.
 
There is all this talk of who is a better coach or who has done more in the last three years. The problem with football especially college football is there can be a lot of variance. When there are only 12 opportunities to score, a few crazy plays change the variance along with some critical injuries can distort a sample space.

So a few comments on Michigan since I know the team well. Jim Harbaugh last year was playing with Brady Hokes players. The vast majority of players he recruited last year were freshman and sophmores. Part of Harbaugh's problem was he had too much success too early. Prior to the 2015 season the football pundits stated that UM would be lucky to go 7-5. Part of this reasoning was the failure of Hoke to properly recruit and develop offensive players at all levels be they quarterbacks, skill players, or linemen. Yet this is forgotten and now it was just expected that UM should go 12-0 with a wheel barrow and a mourners cowl.

So here are a few narratives and quoting Al Pacino in "Any Given Sunday" when he said football is a game of inches. If Darboh comes down with that 3rd down catch against Iowa, if the ref spots the ball 3 inches differently in the OSU game, if a punter does not drop the ball and hand it to the opposition, and if Speight just is not hurt, UM is 3-0 against MSU and possibly 2-1 against OSU.

This is the failure of FriedmanIP in that we are results oriented. We see an output of wins and losses and judge on that alone. Of course every game has what ifs. My point is not that UM was unlucky, but that the difference between success and failure can be just a couple plays. This is why I brought up the UM 2011 season as perfect counter example. UM was a tire fire waiting to happen. Plays went Michigan's way and they won despite the errors I could see in the coaching staff. Yet Hoke was not held accountable because he had a shiny 11-2 record. The FriedmanIP's of the world color the world with adjectives of "great" and "suck". I was looking at the 2nd level stats and I was scared poopless.

Unless a coach is bombing, I do not evaluate his performance with a team until I have four and preferably five years of data. At four years 5 star recruits are playing in their last year as juniors and at five years are seniors. Only after six years do I have a full cycle where a freshman that was recruited the first full recruiting cycle redshirts and graduates. As much heat as Harbaugh is taking, no one is going to fire him. I will reserve my judgement in a couple years.

In eight years Kelly is 69-34. I counted the vacated wins. That is a 66% win percentage. That is what Kelly is. Eight years is enough to get rid of the variance of crazy plays and luck. I think it is reasonable that for every 10+ season Kelly has there will be a 9-. It is ironic that Harbaugh in a much smaller sample space has about the same win percentage at 71% and there is angst. Yet everything is fine in South Bend. At eights years this is Kelly's team. I will be interested to see what Harbaugh can do now that his first class are in their 3rd year.

In terms of Kelly he is what he is. There is no doubt that the 2012 season could be replicated. Yet there is no doubt especially with the schedule that four and five loss seasons will also be par. In 2016 a bunch of bad stuff happened. I will use 2016 season as counter point. ND was way better than their 4-8 record. Yet if I were a FriedmanIP clone I would just say ND stunk it up, fire the coach. Six losses could have easily been six wins. And that MSU game was a comedy of errors. ND was ten times the team MSU was in 2016.

So what I am saying. When I look at a coaching staff I ask is the team competing. The other team is trying just as hard. If some losses occur and it came down to a play or two to beat a good team I know statistically everything evens out. No coaching staff is just lucky. The breaks will even out.
 
I have quoted the book “Natural Enemies” multiple times on here that was co-authored by Michigan & ND coaches & AD’s about the rivalry. And how Michigan refused to play ND for decades & decades. And how Michigan & ND scrimmaged in the 1890’s when ND students were learning the game & Yost later had then turned into official games to give Michigan more wins.

But I will put out a few other facts that I have always found interesting after reading historical college football books.

Michigan is among the list of teams that credits themselves with more titles than they are credited with. ND is the only team who credits themselves with less.

Michigan gives themselves any tithe awarded by ANY poll dating back to 1880. ND only awards themselves consensus national titles.
That is why everybody else awards ND 13, but ND only accepts the 11 consensus. If ND did what Michigan did (any poll) ND would have 22 National Titles.

Second thing I find interesting is the ability of Michigan to avoid ND for over 75 years. ND is the only team to play for or win a title in consistently for over 100 years.
Going back to the 1910’s, ND has played for a National Title on the final weekend every decade but one. They did in the 1910’s, ‘20’s, 30’s, 40’s, 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, 90’s & 2010’s. And if not for the Bush Push in 2005 ND would have in the 2000’s too (which is the only decade they didn’t).
Michigan refused to play ND during Rockne’s dominance between 1919 & 1930. During the 40’s Michigan cancelled the series again with Leahy’s ND teams. And when ND demolished teams Michigan struggled against, Michigan still tried to claim titles in years ND was awarded the consensus title. Michigan still claims them.
Michigan never played Ara’s dominant ND teams.
The only legendary ND coach Michigan played was Holtz, in which Holtz has a winning record.
Since the teams started playing in modern times, the series is actually tied, despite Michigan never playing 3 of the greatest college football legacies ever (3 different ND dominant decades). Michigan did take advantage of three of the worst ND coaches ever, despite not playing ND during down Michigan times.

If ND & Michigan played every year since 1900 the series would be much, much different. ND would have a dominant lead, much like they do against USC. Even though ND had a down period, over the 100 years ND still was the overall dominant program against USC. The same would be true with Michigan.

Just the Rockne years alone would have ND i the series.
1/2 of a National Championship in the last 70 years. What else needs to be said.
 
The constant bashing of harbaugh has gotten out of hand. They guy has dominated every where he has been. He has not had a qb which is a world of difference. He has had good to great qbs on all his teams except past 3 years. He gets a guy that can do what he wants then they will challenge Ohio state for playoff spot. I hate Michigan and hope Patterson is avg because if he is baseline good they will be a nightmare.
 
I have quoted the book “Natural Enemies” multiple times on here that was co-authored by Michigan & ND coaches & AD’s about the rivalry. And how Michigan refused to play ND for decades & decades. And how Michigan & ND scrimmaged in the 1890’s when ND students were learning the game & Yost later had then turned into official games to give Michigan more wins.

But I will put out a few other facts that I have always found interesting after reading historical college football books.

Michigan is among the list of teams that credits themselves with more titles than they are credited with. ND is the only team who credits themselves with less.

Michigan gives themselves any tithe awarded by ANY poll dating back to 1880. ND only awards themselves consensus national titles.
That is why everybody else awards ND 13, but ND only accepts the 11 consensus. If ND did what Michigan did (any poll) ND would have 22 National Titles.

Second thing I find interesting is the ability of Michigan to avoid ND for over 75 years. ND is the only team to play for or win a title in consistently for over 100 years.
Going back to the 1910’s, ND has played for a National Title on the final weekend every decade but one. They did in the 1910’s, ‘20’s, 30’s, 40’s, 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, 90’s & 2010’s. And if not for the Bush Push in 2005 ND would have in the 2000’s too (which is the only decade they didn’t).
Michigan refused to play ND during Rockne’s dominance between 1919 & 1930. During the 40’s Michigan cancelled the series again with Leahy’s ND teams. And when ND demolished teams Michigan struggled against, Michigan still tried to claim titles in years ND was awarded the consensus title. Michigan still claims them.
Michigan never played Ara’s dominant ND teams.
The only legendary ND coach Michigan played was Holtz, in which Holtz has a winning record.
Since the teams started playing in modern times, the series is actually tied, despite Michigan never playing 3 of the greatest college football legacies ever (3 different ND dominant decades). Michigan did take advantage of three of the worst ND coaches ever, despite not playing ND during down Michigan times.

If ND & Michigan played every year since 1900 the series would be much, much different. ND would have a dominant lead, much like they do against USC. Even though ND had a down period, over the 100 years ND still was the overall dominant program against USC. The same would be true with Michigan.

Just the Rockne years alone would have ND i the series.
Another way to say it, is that in the last 70 years the following schools have as many or more national championships than Michigan:

Michigan State “Little Brother”
Maryland
Washington
Georgia Tech
BYU
 
Another way to say it, is that in the last 70 years the following schools have as many or more national championships than Michigan:

Michigan State “Little Brother”
Maryland
Washington
Georgia Tech
BYU

How could you forget Navy?
 

Like I said before, congrats on those 8 scrimmages in 7 years starting in 1890 that 30 years later Michigan had turned into official wins. My favorite was the year they played a half, then the next day played another half but quit the game to catch a train home. Both games were one score games.

And of course REFUSING to play ND for a combined 78 years. My favorite nugget from that was the refusal to play Rockne in the 20’s because they thought the forward pass was cheating. LOL
But close second was them refusing to play ND in the late 40’s, but then self-claiming National Titles those same years that ND was named Consensus National Champions. And they still claimed them too, which is why they were named along with Bama as the two programs who self-recognize titles they didn’t win.
Classic Bridesmaid...
 
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