ADVERTISEMENT

Vegas opens the line on OSU vs. ND

I'd take Notre Dame all day with that line, I could see Notre Dame running for 200 to 250 yards.

That alone will keep it close.
 
Vegas tries to get even action.
That's the goal.
OSU by 13 @ home is about the most absolute spot on number from what these programs have shown over the last five years.

If that game were in South Bend OSU is still favored by 6.5-7.5 and deservedly so.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Four-Leaf and Airzee23
On the road, breaking in a new QB, versus their Projected first rd pick..... It is hard to say, so many things impacted with betting - are we losing by 20 late and score a TD with 30 seconds left to get the back door cover? Or is it a game and we are up late before they score to go up 7 and then Buchner throws a pick six to get the back door cover the other way?
 
  • Like
Reactions: notredamerises23 and Airzee23
SIhoosier26 said:
You think Ohio State's beating this Notre Dame team by two or more touchdowns?

OSU is good but they aren't that good.
Click to expand...
Why aren't they? They're likely 1A and 1B with Alabama right now. And the game is in Columbus. And Notre Dame is breaking in a new QB and has a first time head coach.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Airzee23
88ND said:
Vegas tries to get even action.
That's the goal.
OSU by 13 @ home is about the most absolute spot on number from what these programs have shown over the last five years.

If that game were in South Bend OSU is still favored by 6.5-7.5 and deservedly so.
Click to expand...
That’s the ultimate goal, but setting the opening line in combination with the over under predicts the score, then the money flows in.

As the money flows in the opening line and O/U get adjusted.

Vegas doesn’t care about the past five years, only the game at hand.

What surprises me is Vegas providing a line so far in advance in a sport where an injury or other event can dramatically alter the circumstances.
 
SIhoosier26 said:
You think Ohio State's beating this Notre Dame team by two or more touchdowns?

OSU is good but they aren't that good.
Click to expand...
Vegas thinks they are !

ND needs a special effort, a few breaks and no turnovers.
 
SIhoosier26 said:
I'd take Notre Dame all day with that line, I could see Notre Dame running for 200 to 250 yards.

That alone will keep it close.
Click to expand...
It’s the smart game plan. I think Freeman is intelligent enough to know that. Kelly would never let a ball control offense be his game plan in this type of game.

ND’s ground game steps up then the high octane OSU offense will get frustrated being on the sidelines. The Buckeyes will score at will on every team they play. Freakish offense.
 
BucksLAN said:
Why aren't they? They're likely 1A and 1B with Alabama right now. And the game is in Columbus. And Notre Dame is breaking in a new QB and has a first time head coach.
Click to expand...
Maybe they are but I can assure you this Notre Dame team isn't a pushover. They have a top5 defensive line group and an all American safety on defense and a damn good defensive coordinator. We don't have a ton of depth at corner but our top two are pretty good.

The matchup of the game IMO is your offensive line against our d line, we have to get pressure or we'll be in big trouble. I love our running game and Notre Dame finally has an o line coach to go with a QB that can move.

I'm not picking Notre Dame to win this but I think 31-24 is much more likely than Ohio State winning by 14+.
 
Golson5 said:
They're damn good
Click to expand...
they lost 2000 receiving yards and 25 TDs with Olave and Wilson. Still, ND will have to score 35 to win this game I think. They have high 1st rounders at QB, RB, and WR. Offense is still damn good, but losing two 1st rounders at WR has to hurt anyone.

Their D is not that good. They gave up 97 points in their last 2 games, and 35 to Oregon, and 31 to Minnesota and Purdue.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JOEND2004
thehellyousay said:
they lost 2000 receiving yards and 25 TDs with Olave and Wilson. Still, ND will have to score 35 to win this game I think. They have high 1st rounders at QB, RB, and WR. Offense is still damn good, but losing two 1st rounders at WR has to hurt anyone.

Their D is not that good. They gave up 97 points in their last 2 games, and 35 to Oregon, and 31 to Minnesota and Purdue.
Click to expand...
They may have the best offense in the country and their D should be improved with a better DC. They are talented and at home. It will take a monumental effort to win that Game
 
Patrirish said:
Vegas doesn’t care about the past five years, only the game at hand.
Click to expand...

You better believe they're referencing the last five years.
We last played 6 years ago so it's not like previous head to head can play any part in this.
Moreover what common opponents as of late and the common opponents...the location....green QB or experienced QB...

All the above is playing a huge part in setting a line without any of 2022 previous games to reference. Like if this game were in October and we were destroying opponents you'd see a closer line.

Book makers hate opening weekend lines especially in games like this with minimal points of reference to use
 
What we need to do is the same blueprint Michigan used last year - establish the running game on offense, and get a good pass rush going on defense.

Michigan sacked Stroud 4 times. He still had 394 yds and 2 TDs, but they got enough stops to hold them to 27 pts and win the game (and they didn't even get any turnovers). Our DL will be one of our best units, so I think we're capable of pulling it off.

And while Ohio State should have a great passing attack again, I doubt it'll be quite as good as last year's, having lost 2 first round WRs.
 
mbd11 said:
What we need to do is the same blueprint Michigan used last year - establish the running game on offense, and get a good pass rush going on defense.

Michigan sacked Stroud 4 times. He still had 394 yds and 2 TDs, but they got enough stops to hold them to 27 pts and win the game (and they didn't even get any turnovers). Our DL will be one of our best units, so I think we're capable of pulling it off.

And while Ohio State should have a great passing attack again, I doubt it'll be quite as good as last year's, having lost 2 first round WRs.
Click to expand...
Ohio State is replacing 1st round receivers with more 1st rounders. Marvin Harrison Jr exploded in the Rose Bowl, and 5* guys like Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming are primed to take off. I don't expect that position group to take a step back. They're going to average a lot of passing yards again
 
88ND said:
You better believe they're referencing the last five years.
We last played 6 years ago so it's not like previous head to head can play any part in this.
Moreover what common opponents as of late and the common opponents...the location....green QB or experienced QB...

All the above is playing a huge part in setting a line without any of 2022 previous games to reference. Like if this game were in October and we were destroying opponents you'd see a closer line.

Book makers hate opening weekend lines especially in games like this with minimal points of reference to use
Click to expand...
Vegas totally ignores past performance from prior years and establishes the line based solely on contemporaneous circumstances. Home field/travel is certainly a factor.

Common opponents are irrelevant in an opening game since there are none.

Whenever a line seems too good to be true, I’m leary and stay away !
 
A win vs Ohio State would be bigger than landing any top recruit. I hope Marcus Freeman spends as much time game planning as he does recruiting.
 
TXNDFan88 said:
On the road, breaking in a new QB, versus their Projected first rd pick..... It is hard to say, so many things impacted with betting - are we losing by 20 late and score a TD with 30 seconds left to get the back door cover? Or is it a game and we are up late before they score to go up 7 and then Buchner throws a pick six to get the back door cover the other way?
Click to expand...
Looks like he’s the consensus #1 pick with their WR being a consensus top #10-#15 pick. At least Wilson and Olave are gone.
 
Playing them early helps. Not having any film on our Defense helps. Not ever really seeing Buckner helps. I would expect OSU to load up on blitzes early to rattle Buch, lets hope he side steps the first few and makes them pay dearly so they shut that down. Coan didnt really have that ability.

I can see the line at 9.5 game time. Its going to take a very, very, very special defensive game by our Irish to win that game.
 
  • Like
Reactions: notredamerises23
TXNDFan88 said:
On the road, breaking in a new QB, versus their Projected first rd pick..... It is hard to say, so many things impacted with betting - are we losing by 20 late and score a TD with 30 seconds left to get the back door cover? Or is it a game and we are up late before they score to go up 7 and then Buchner throws a pick six to get the back door cover the other way?
Click to expand...
And don't forget the ROOKIE COACH.

He may have PLAYED for OSU, but he's never HEAD-COACHED against them or ANYONE in an AWAY OPENER.

Regardless of how this turns out -- and regardless if any sins of his are REMITTED or not -- this will be one BAPTISM OF FIRE.
 
4-4-3 said:
And don't forget the ROOKIE COACH.

He may have PLAYED for OSU, but he's never HEAD-COACHED against them or ANYONE in an AWAY OPENER.

Regardless of how this turns out -- and regardless if any sins of his are REMITTED or not -- this will be one BAPTISM OF FIRE.
Click to expand...
👍
 
4-4-3 said:
And don't forget the ROOKIE COACH.

He may have PLAYED for OSU, but he's never HEAD-COACHED against them or ANYONE in an AWAY OPENER.

Regardless of how this turns out -- and regardless if any sins of his are REMITTED or not -- this will be one BAPTISM OF FIRE.
Click to expand...
It all comes down to Buchner and the offense. If you watch last years Oregon game it's because Oregon was fast and they moved the ball and scored often. That's not a Big 10 way of playing. Big 10 is slow to start, methodical, with big play potential. Ohio State isn't used to that intensity and speed, particularly early in the year where the Big 10 usually schedules cup cakes. Oregon just kept scoring and it was debilitating. I see a lot of similarities between that Oregon team and ND. They have a great running quarterback, speedy and good backs. Their QB kept Ohio State's defense scrambling with the option. Lots of RPO. This is a very winnable game for ND. It's not that Oregon could really stop them much, they just couldn't stop Oregon at all and Oregon forced a couple big plays on defense. That was the difference. I also felt like Oregon's defense got better as the game progressed. Conditioning is HUGE that early in the season. One thing that scares me slightly, is we were NOT as well conditioned against Ok. State. They were clearly the harder working team and it paid off in the 4th quarter.
 
Last edited:
Oregon, Michigan, Utah, and even Penn State either beat or played a close game with Ohio State. If we get beat by more than the spread, that's not a good look for our coaches.
 
IrishBeer said:
Oregon, Michigan, Utah, and even Penn State either beat or played a close game with Ohio State. If we get beat by more than the spread, that's not a good look for our coaches.
Click to expand...
Are we playing last years team or this years?
 
IrishBeer said:
My opinion is the same. We should be better this year than last year too. The growth of the two teams should be the same or similar.
Click to expand...
Point is pointless. That was last years team. This is a whole new year.

OSU is returning maybe the best QB, WR, RB in the nation. All a year older with more experience. They changed their DC which was a huge upgrade.

They will be a handful
 
Golson5 said:
Point is pointless. That was last years team. This is a whole new year.

OSU is returning maybe the best QB, WR, RB in the nation. All a year older with more experience. They changed their DC which was a huge upgrade.

They will be a handful
Click to expand...
Yep, and our QB should be better. We have a top 10 pick at DE. Deep RB room. Styles is better. Lenzy is better. The OL should be way better. The CBs should be better. Michael Mayer is the best TE in the nation. Deep at LB. Should be similar growth. No reason this years ND team wouldn't beat last years ND team. I don't expect Ohio State to go from being what they were last you to the best football team of all time. Should be similar growth. I think we lose by 10. My point is anything worse than the spread is not good.
 
Anyone dropping $4,500 to go the the game? LOL! Even as someone with an ND grad wife and financial blessings, there is no way in hell I would pay that when I have a lovely 65 inch OLED and a plush ass couch. While I would love to go to the game, that is plain insanity, unless you're Elon Musk. How in the hell is the price being driven up that high? This is really supply and demand? Thousands of Ohio State fans are really forking over that kind of cash? I find that hard to fathom. While I know the nose bleeds are more affordable, it's still $250 for those. I guess I blame Biden. Who else is there to blame.
 
Last edited:
IrishBeer said:
Yep, and our QB should be better. We have a top 10 pick at DE. Deep RB room. Styles is better. Lenzy is better. The OL should be way better. The CBs should be better. Michael Mayer is the best TE in the nation. Deep at LB. Should be similar growth. No reason this years ND team wouldn't beat last years ND team. I don't expect Ohio State to go from being what they were last you to the best football team of all time. Should be similar growth. I think we lose by 10. My point is anything worse than the spread is not good.
Click to expand...
If we played osu in September last year we would have lost by 30
 
  • Like
Reactions: Scots-Irishballa
Im going to go against my gut on this one....

Ohio state has a history of being the better team and blowing it in early season matchups against top ranked opponent's....


And yes ,i think Ohio state is the better squad.... Because of their offense....
 
IrishBeer said:
It all comes down to Buchner and the offense. If you watch last years Oregon game it's because Oregon was fast and they moved the ball and scored often. That's not a Big 10 way of playing. Big 10 is slow to start, methodical, with big play potential. Ohio State isn't used to that intensity and speed, particularly early in the year where the Big 10 usually schedules cup cakes. Oregon just kept scoring and it was debilitating. I see a lot of similarities between that Oregon team and ND. They have a great running quarterback, speedy and good backs. Their QB kept Ohio State's defense scrambling with the option. Lots of RPO. This is a very winnable game for ND. It's not that Oregon could really stop them much, they just couldn't stop Oregon at all and Oregon forced a couple big plays on defense. That was the difference. I also felt like Oregon's defense got better as the game progressed. Conditioning is HUGE that early in the season. One thing that scares me slightly, is we were NOT as well conditioned against Ok. State. They were clearly the harder working team and it paid off in the 4th quarter.
Click to expand...
I don't know WHAT it will come down to. Or who will win. How many thought ND would go up 28-7 against the OTHER OSU? Then lose the game.

The forecasters are surprisingly good, but they're not perfect. But as for me, I'm not even in the ballpark. As for others, I don't keep track after following BODI last year, though granted, he was ATYPICAL. Sort of.

My only thought is that an ND romp will be viewed in the leadup as the MOST IMPROBABLE outcome. But there's NO LOCK there either.

In 1926, ND, which on the back of SEVEN SHUTOUTS, gave up only 19 points in its other 9 games, lost to underdog, Carnegie Tech, in the next to last game 19-0.

Anything can happen. It's football.
 
4-4-3 said:
I don't know WHAT it will come down to. Or who will win. How many thought ND would go up 28-7 against the OTHER OSU? Then lose the game.

The forecasters are surprisingly good, but they're not perfect. But as for me, I'm not even in the ballpark. As for others, I don't keep track after following BODI last year, though granted, he was ATYPICAL. Sort of.

My only thought is that an ND romp will be viewed in the leadup as the MOST IMPROBABLE outcome. But there's NO LOCK there either.

In 1926, ND, which on the back of SEVEN SHUTOUTS, gave up only 19 points in its other 9 games, lost to underdog, Carnegie Tech, in the next to last game 19-0.

Anything can happen. It's football.
Click to expand...

Well I think we know what it won’t come down to. It’s not going to be because Mayer and Foskey suck. It’s not going to be because we don’t have capable running backs with huge depth. It’s not going to be because Harry H. is a bust. It’s not going to be because we heavily overrated our LBs and their depth. It’s not going to be because Styles or Lenzy failed to get open and just aren’t D1 receivers. It’s not going to be because Buchner is just not a good runner and should only pass. It’s not going to be because Tyree is slow and can’t return kicks. So I think that narrows it down a little. It’s not going to be because we lost Hamilton and Joseph is a huge bust.

Threats = kickers are dreadful, corners are suspect, QBs arm and experience has been a question we haven’t answered. Conditioning was an issue against Ok State. That surprised me with Balis. I don’t expect to see that again. Youth at the HC position and big moment decisions.
 
Last edited:
I could see the kicking game continuing to haunt us from OSU. No doubt that is a huge worry after the spring game. 30 yard punts do not turn the field and missing FG inside the 40 is not a good sign.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

P

NOTRE DAME vs TEXAS A & M

Replies
18
Views
1K
Under the Dome
IrishMike409
I
Tyler James

Recruiting Notre Dame makes top nine for 2025 DT target Javeon Campbell

Replies
0
Views
1K
The Insider Lounge
Tyler James
Tyler James
Tyler James

Recruiting DT target Darren Ikinnagbon commits to Georgia

Replies
1
Views
286
The Insider Lounge
jmND86
J
Tyler James

Football Podcast: Bob Morton on Blue-Gold Game, offensive line improvement

Replies
0
Views
130
The Insider Lounge
Tyler James
Tyler James
Tyler James

Recruiting Four-star DE Damien Shanklin's visit schedule

Replies
13
Views
589
The Insider Lounge
HotCarNut
HotCarNut
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back