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The State Of ND Recruiting 2018

IrishInOntario

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Feb 21, 2009
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It's obvious to anyone who follows recruiting that ND is off to a hot start in recruiting, and while we've seen great starts before that haven't always wound up amounting to elite classes on signing day, one still has to be encouraged with the type of talent the new staff is targeting and the the early verbal commitments that they've been able to secure early in the cycle. Coming off of a 4-8 season, most (myself included) thought that this might be a "wait-and-see" type of year for ND as it relates to the top tier recruits wanting to join the Notre Dame class. It's a credit to Mike Elko, Clark Lea, Todd Lyght, Aaron Carney, Dave Peloquin, Chip Long, Del Alexander, Autry Denson, Brian Polian and yes, even Brian Kelly, as well as the leadership and tireless work ethic of recruiting coordinator Mike Elston, that they've been been ultra aggressive and active in the 2018 cycle and their efforts are playing major early dividends.

As of Friday afternoon, Notre Dame has a total of 10 commitments for the 2018 class. What's more impressive is that they span across each position, with the exceptionon of tight end, kicker and punter. Notre Dame is undoubtedly taking a more blanched approach to recruiting this cycle and is finally, aggressively recruiting their primary needs. With a total number of between 18-21 recruits expected to sign in 2018, as it stands, ND's class could be 50% "complete" (verbal commitments are not binding) at this early stage.

Another important element of this class that fans have to be encouraged by is the quality of the recruits ND is landing. ND's class is currently ranked second in the composite rankings, behind only Penn State at this point and the composite average ranking of the 10 players ND has committed is 91.92, an excellent start and a group that features two top 100 players in Quarterback Phil Jurkovec and Safety Derrik Allen.

While it's a good sign that ND has a pair of top 100 recruits committed, it's going to be interesting to see wherected ND is at 4 months from now, come Irish Invasion as well as the spring game. Furthermore, the staff is doing an awesome job of getting top prospects on campus right night now. This weekend is perfect example of that, with a pair of top 100 recruits in CB Houston Griffith and WR Kamryn Babb both visiting, a week after ND had an extremely successful junior day, which saw them land commitments from 4 of the 5 un-committed players that visited and the 5th, WR Braden Lenzy has had CB's rolling in left, right and center, for Notre Dame.

With only 8-11 spots left in the class, expect ND to only target the players at the top of their board right now, until at least June, when they can then re-evaluate where they stand with the great players and can revise their strategy regarding the next group of offers they'd like to extend. This is banner year for Midwest recruiting, especially on defense and it's going to be interesting to see how ND handles guys like Devin O'Rourke, John Wagonner, Cam McGrone, and Jack Sanborn, all 90+ comp players from Illinois, Iowa and Indiana, who ND would have an excellent shot at landing if they pushed. Right now, however, here is my list of the 20 guys that ND must make a top priority because of 1. Their talent and 2. Their interest in Notre Dame.

1. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (top 100)
2. WR: Kamryn Babb (top 100)
3. WR: Braden Lenzy
4. WR: Jahan Dotson (top 100)
5. OT: Ryan Hayes
6. OG: John Dirksen
7. TE: Jeremy Ruckert (top 100)
8. TE: Mustapha Muhammad (top 100)
9. NG: PJ Mustipher (top 100)
10. DE: Malik Vann
11. DE: Tyreke Smith
12. DE: Thomas Booker
13. LB: Dallas Gant
14. LB: Dax Hollifield
15. LB: Payton Wilson
16. Rover: Alan Tisdale
17. CB: Houston Griffith (top 100)
18. CB: Bookie Radley-Hiles (top 100)
19. S: Tyreke Johnson (top 100)
20. ATH: Talanoa Hufanga

You'll notice that I didn't include guys like Jalen Hall, Teradja Mitchell, BJ Foster, Jamaree Salyer, Josh Moore,
Palaie Gaoteote, etc, etc... Those are guys that I don't think ND has a legit shot at, regardless of what people are saying.

My next tier of guys after the first 20 includes the likes of...

RB: Keontay Ingram
WR: Kevin Austin Jr.
WR: Tommy Bush
WR: Camron Johnson
TE: Pat Freiermuth
TE: Will Mallory
OL: Fredrick Scruggs
OL: Finn Derstine
DT: Tommy Togiai
DE: John Wagonner
DE: Devin O'Rourke
DE: Tyler Baylor
LB: Alston Orji
LB: Cameron McGrone
LB: Jack Sanborn
LB: Terrance Taylor
S: Trey Dean
S: Shayne Simon
S: Kwantel Raines
S: CJ Smith
CB: Isaac Taylor-Stuart

As the first tier of guys come off the board, ND must do a better job than in years past of aggressively pursuing the next recruit in line. At that point, their third tier must also be established in case the 2nd tier player is not available.
 
I agree with a lot of what you've said, but I'm expecting a bigger class than you.

With some of the "defections" I've heard may occur this summer, plus a large number of players leaving for the NFL before with eligibility remaining (McGlinchey, Nelson, St. Brown, possibly even A. Jones), plus Kelly's willingness to "oversign", now that he's finally accepted that being at 87 in the spring will just naturally move to 85 before the fall...I'm expecting the class to ultimately expecting a class more in the 22-25 range.

As long as we're able to keep landing guys we consider to be high priority, I wouldn't be surprised to see us take 15 more recruits in this class.
 
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the way its going '18 could be close to wrapped up by the time fall comes around. we always seem to have a few in the spring and a few in the summer around irish invasion. wouldnt be surprised at all to be around 17 or 18 by the time the season starts. at that point we're probably only focusing on a handful of kids and taking maybe 5 or 6 more. just guessing though, we may start recruiting guys now that are going to draw it out and things begin to slow down. but there does seem to be a buzz around ND right now for whatever reason and kids are hopping on board earlier than they ever have.
 
I agree with a lot of what you've said, but I'm expecting a bigger class than you.

With some of the "defections" I've heard may occur this summer, plus a large number of players leaving for the NFL before with eligibility remaining (McGlinchey, Nelson, St. Brown, possibly even A. Jones), plus Kelly's willingness to "oversign", now that he's finally accepted that being at 87 in the spring will just naturally move to 85 before the fall...I'm expecting the class to ultimately expecting a class more in the 22-25 range.

As long as we're able to keep landing guys we consider to be high priority, I wouldn't be surprised to see us take 15 more recruits in this class.

The way I have it is this...

Departing due to graduation or out of eligibility (11)

Montgomery VanGorder
Nyles Morgan
Tyler Luatua
Quenton Nelson
Mike McGlinchey
Hunter Bivin
Daniel Cage
Durham Smythe
Tyler Newsome
Andrew Trumbetti
Greer Martini

Potential 5th years (9)

Nick Watkins
Nic Weishar
Jonathan Bonner
Alex Bars
Drue Tranquill
Sam Mustipher
Jay Hayes
Pete Mokwuah
Jimmy Byrne

Potential early departures for the draft (4)

Josh Adams
Alize Jones
Equanimeous St. Brown
Jerry Tillery

I see ND likely offering 5th years to Nick Watkins, Alex Bars, Sam Mustipher and Drue Tranquill. Nic Weishar'S 5th year likely depends on whether Aliz'e Jones leaves early or stays. Jonathan Bonne and Jay Hayes both depend on how productive they are this year and whether wither even wants to start a grad program.

I'm also going to guess that ND has 2 early departures for the draft out of the 4 that could go... So we have 11 graduating and leaving for sure. Add 2 more who leave early for the draft and that brings it to 13. Lets say ND awards 4 players, 5th years, bringing the number to 18...

So ND is likely the minimum... Then you can expect at least 1 player to retire due to injuries and take a medical, or quit football, bringing the total to 19...

Then we have underclasmen transfer or get get kicked out... Where could transfers come from?

I would not be shocked to see one of Ian Book or Avery Davis transfer with Wimbush starting and Jurkovec coming in the 2018 class. That brings the total to 20. I would also not be shocked to see a linebacker such as Josh Barajas or Johnathan Jones transfer due to lack of playing time, bringing the total to 22.

So beyond 22 we're looking at either a DB like a Nick Coleman or Ashton White should they get beat out and decide to transfer, or maybe a Spencer Perry or D.J. Morgan if they can't see a future at SS or Rover. We could also see a defensive tackle transfer. One of Brandon Tiassum, Elijah Taylor, or Micah-Dew Treadway. Although we are thin at wide receiver , maybe a guy like Deon McIntosh can't get into the rotation and heads back to Florida. Lastly, there could be a freshman who leaves after his first year, or who doesn't make it academically.

There will also be somebody who leaves unexpectedly. It always seems to happen.

So 18 for, with 22 being likely, and maybe as many as 24-25, depending on transfers, 5th years, early departures, medicals and discipline issues.

Man, 25 would be awesome...

I'd love to get...

1 QB
2 RB
1 TE
1 OG
3 OT
2 DT
1 NG
1 SDE
2 WDE
2 Buck
1 Mike
2 Rover
3 CB
2 S
1 Punter
 
It all hinges on Kelly. If he starts 5-0 the Irish have a chance at a 10-2 season and it means new coaches are a success. However if Kelly goes 0-4 it all goes out the window and national media will kill ND. We shall see.
 
IIO -- as always thanks for the recruiting analysis. If you ever start your own site I might even start to pay!

I'm heartened by the fast beginning and Kelly's reimagining of his coaching self. We are seeing results in recruiting and hopefully on the field.

That Georgia game really looms large. Win that one and we could be on to something this year.

On another topic: any chance we get Clemson's Pagano?! (Seems he will probably go west and play for a second natty with loaded USC -- has any college player ever done that? Won back to back nattys with different teams?)

Still, he would start immediately for us! We could really really use him with the question marks around Cage's health.
 
Can't imagine a better start to the recruiting year. This new group of coaches have been impressive with keeping the 17 class together and finishing strong, and rolling right into an impressive Jr day with incredible results. As IIO suggests, they are going after talent across the board. Winning of course is critical to keep these verbals to NSD, but so is style and showing the program is moving in the right direction. I think we'll see both in the coming year.
 
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