The case for why the rankings are flawed

Patrirish

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BYU is ranked # 16 and ND isn’t ranked in the top 25, yet the professional oddsmakers had ND favored by 9.5 points.

That’s not an uncommon occurrence.

In theory # 16 should be heavily favored against a team ranked outside of the top 25.

This is why a won/loss record should NOT be the determining criterion.

The Las Vegas oddsmakers should rank the teams, not a committee of unqualified panelists, coaches or the media.
 

Golson5

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BYU is ranked # 16 and ND isn’t ranked in the top 25, yet the professional oddsmakers had ND favored by 9.5 points.

That’s not an uncommon occurrence.

In theory # 16 should be heavily favored against a team ranked outside of the top 25.

This is why a won/loss record should NOT be the determining criterion.

The Las Vegas oddsmakers should rank the teams, not a committee of unqualified panelists, coaches or the media.
No
 

Shakin' Down the Thunder

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The rankings have always been flawed. It's impossible to get it right. With over 100 teams and only 12 regular season opponents. How can you possibly rank each team accurately?
 

IrishHerb

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BYU is ranked # 16 and ND isn’t ranked in the top 25, yet the professional oddsmakers had ND favored by 9.5 points.

That’s not an uncommon occurrence.

In theory # 16 should be heavily favored against a team ranked outside of the top 25.

This is why a won/loss record should NOT be the determining criterion.

The Las Vegas oddsmakers should rank the teams, not a committee of unqualified panelists, coaches or the media.

And in the AP poll, ND is not only outside the top 25, they aren't even listed as a team that has any points.

We'll see how it works out tonight.

I'm not 100% confident that ND will or can win. But we'll see.
I think ND will be able to run on BYU ... a lot depends on how our coaches plan to attack them.
 

chaseball

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F+ is a similar system to what oddsmakers use to determine quality of teams.

There's a lot more information with which to evaluate once you drill down to the play-by-play level and neutralize for strength of schedule and for luck (which F+ does).

That's why despite BYU being 4-1 and ranked #16 in the AP they are still underdogs vs a 2-2 "unranked" ND team.

F+ has BYU ranked #39 and ND ranked #20.

If ND doesn't win convincingly they'll be punished in F+ pretty harshly.
 

Patrirish

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The rankings have always been flawed. It's impossible to get it right. With over 100 teams and only 12 regular season opponents. How can you possibly rank each team accurately?
While perfection will never be achieved, the professionals, the Las Vegas oddsmakers, are exponentially more qualified to determine rankings than the media, coaches or the committee!
 

Patrirish

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Looks like the Las Vegas oddsmakers were pretty much on target
 

Juniper_Run

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Just a clarifying question, Patirish: Should Alabama have been ranked ahead of Auburn after losing the Iron Bowl back in 2010? They were a far better team, according to all the metrics that Vegas oddsmakers use.
 

theskibro

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BYU is ranked # 16 and ND isn’t ranked in the top 25, yet the professional oddsmakers had ND favored by 9.5 points.
That’s not an uncommon occurrence.

In theory # 16 should be heavily favored against a team ranked outside of the top 25.

This is why a won/loss record should NOT be the determining criterion.

The Las Vegas oddsmakers should rank the teams, not a committee of unqualified panelists, coaches or the media.
Nooooooooooo
All rankings suk. Exhibit A. 2993. FSU gets natty but ND beat them. Only accurate judge is on field playoffs. Until at least an 8 team playoff, all teams can be dissected
 

4-4-3

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BYU is ranked # 16 and ND isn’t ranked in the top 25, yet the professional oddsmakers had ND favored by 9.5 points.

That’s not an uncommon occurrence.

In theory # 16 should be heavily favored against a team ranked outside of the top 25.

This is why a won/loss record should NOT be the determining criterion.

The Las Vegas oddsmakers should rank the teams, not a committee of unqualified panelists, coaches or the media.
I think its a SIMPLE INCONSISTENCY in presentation. Each tracks a different measure. It's apples and oranges.

The rankings are based on past peformance with an inordinate emphasis on wins vs. losses. They're a CRUDE WAY of SIMULATING a kind of CFB-WIDE WON-LOSS STANDINGS. Who's actually DONE WHAT, SO FAR.

The betting analysis is done on the basis of WHO'S MOST LIKELY TO WIN in a head to head matchup based more on COMPARATIVE INNATE POTENTIAL. It's an analysis that takes into account NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS besides won-loss records to date.

And, yes, it often leads to the so-called HIGHER RANKED TEAMS projected as underdogs to lower ranked teams owing to the latters' worse won-loss records. And, of course, vice versa. While in fact the BETTER TEAM may be the one with the worse won loss record. And for ANY NUMBER of reasons.

But I would argue that in the end it doesn't matter as the BEST TEAMS ON PAPER often enough achieve THE BEST ACTUAL RECORDS and meet each other in the playoffs. Sometimes, there ARE discrepancies, but given the almost EXCLUSIVE FOCUS on playoffs these days, does anyone actually care?

I certainly don't.
 

Patrirish

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Just a clarifying question, Patirish: Should Alabama have been ranked ahead of Auburn after losing the Iron Bowl back in 2010? They were a far better team, according to all the metrics that Vegas oddsmakers use.
The answer is: If they played 10 times would Alabama win 6 or would Auburn win 6
I’ll say Alabama, ergo they should be ranked higher.
But let’s take another game, ND vs FSU.
How could FSU be ranked ahead of ND for the NC. ?

i think you also have to look to the NFL for the answer.

College football rankings seem to be solely based upon your record against dissimilar opponents

In the NFL, while your record is accounted for it’s not the overwhelming factor
 

IrishBeer

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I agree. Wins and losses shouldn’t determine ranking. But we did lose to Marshall, so we deserve to unranked. Had we lost to Ohio State and Alabama, we’d have a good argument. While Marshall may have been a fluke, the season will determine if it was or wasn’t.
 

Patrirish

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I agree. Wins and losses shouldn’t determine ranking. But we did lose to Marshall, so we deserve to unranked. Had we lost to Ohio State and Alabama, we’d have a good argument. While Marshall may have been a fluke, the season will determine if it was or wasn’t.
The Marshall loss was devastating !
And hard to understand !
 
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Patrirish

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How were they in the Alabama game?
Only a total scmuck goes against Vegas.

They didn’t build billion dollar Hotel/casinos and fly and wine and dine moronic betters like you because they’re losing money..

How about you pick all of the point spreads in games after Stanford and an hour before kickoff I’ll bet with you based upon your point spread.

Do we have a deal or are you all know nothing talk ?
 

Golson5

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Only a total scmuck goes against Vegas.

They didn’t build billion dollar Hotel/casinos and fly and wine and dine moronic betters like you because they’re losing money..

How about you pick all of the point spreads in games after Stanford and an hour before kickoff I’ll bet with you based upon your point spread.

Do we have a deal or are you all know nothing talk ?
I asked how were they in the Alabama game?
 

Patrirish

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Vegas favors ND by 9, ND beats BYU by 8 and the rankings have BYU (4-2) ranked 16 and ND unranked ?

And some don’t think the the rankings are flawed ?
 

sjb75

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AP rankings just came out, and BYU has more points than Notre Dame.

How does that happen???
 

NDinNJ

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Only a total scmuck goes against Vegas.

They didn’t build billion dollar Hotel/casinos and fly and wine and dine moronic betters like you because they’re losing money..

How about you pick all of the point spreads in games after Stanford and an hour before kickoff I’ll bet with you based upon your point spread.

Do we have a deal or are you all know nothing talk ?
No one bets against Vegas. Sports betting is a zero sum game. For every wager laying the points there is a wager taking the points. Vegas sets lines based on getting a 50/50 split of wagers taking points and getting points.
 

IrishHerb

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The AP and Coaches Rankings are both flawed ...

How is it (I know ND is 4-2 now and has lost to Marshall) that 2 of the teams we've beat (one even has a record identical to ours) are ranked ahead of us?
 

Golson5

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The ranking members
No one bets against Vegas. Sports betting is a zero sum game. For every wager laying the points there is a wager taking the points. Vegas sets lines based on getting a 50/50 split of wagers taking points and getting points.
There's plenty of people who beat Vegas. Now more lose for sure but there's a lot that win as well
 

Patrirish

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There's plenty of people who beat Vegas. Now more lose for sure but there's a lot that win as well
Lots of winners ?
You’re either delusional or stupid !

Nobody beats the law of large numbers !

Many say they’re winners, but talk is cheap.
 

sjb75

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And in the AP poll, ND is not only outside the top 25, they aren't even listed as a team that has any points.

We'll see how it works out tonight.

I'm not 100% confident that ND will or can win. But we'll see.
I think ND will be able to run on BYU ... a lot depends on how our coaches plan to attack them.
Thanks.
 

Golson5

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Lots of winners ?
You’re either delusional or stupid !

Nobody beats the law of large numbers !

Many say they’re winners, but talk is cheap.
Yes there are people who are way ahead. More people that have lost more than they won.
 

Patrirish

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Dino Babers, Syracuse; Craig Bohl, Wyoming; Neal Brown, West Virginia; Troy Calhoun, Air Force; Matt Campbell, Iowa State; Steve Campbell, South Alabama; Jason Candle, Toledo; Jamey Chadwell, Coastal Carolina; Paul Chryst, Wisconsin; Geoff Collins, Georgia Tech; David Cutcliffe, Duke; Butch Davis, Florida International; Manny Diaz, Miami (Fla.); Dana Dimel, Texas-El Paso; Sonny Dykes, Southern Methodist; Luke Fickell, Cincinnati; Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M; Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern; James Franklin, Penn State; Hugh Freeze, Liberty; Willie Fritz, Tulane; Scott Frost, Nebraska; Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech; Todd Graham, Hawaii; Jeff Hafley, Boston College; Thomas Hammock, Northern Illinois; Bryan Harsin, Boise State; Will Healy, Charlotte; Clay Helton, Southern California; Tyson Helton, Western Kentucky; Tom Herman, Texas; Skip Holtz, Louisiana Tech; Mike Houston, East Carolina; Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame; Chris Klieman, Kansas State; Lance Leipold, Buffalo; Tim Lester, Western Michigan; Seth Littrell, North Texas; Mike Locksley, Maryland; Scot Loeffler, Bowling Green; Chad Lunsford, Georgia Southern; Gus Malzahn, Auburn; Doug Martin, New Mexico State; Jeff Monken, Army; Dan Mullen, Florida; Billy Napier, Louisiana-Lafayette; Ken Niumatalolo, Navy; Jay Norvell, Nevada; Brian Kelly, LSU; Gary Patterson, TCU; Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee; Nick Saban, Alabama; Scott Satterfield, Louisville; Jeff Scott, South Florida; Kirby Smart, Georgia; Lovie Smith, Illinois; Jonathan Smith, Oregon State; Frank Solich, Ohio; Jake Spavital, Texas State; Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee; Kevin Sumlin, Arizona; Dabo Swinney, Clemson; Mel Tucker, Michigan State; Matt Wells, Texas Tech; Kyle Whittingham, Utah.
 

Juniper_Run

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The answer is: If they played 10 times would Alabama win 6 or would Auburn win 6
I’ll say Alabama, ergo they should be ranked higher.
But let’s take another game, ND vs FSU.
How could FSU be ranked ahead of ND for the NC. ?


i think you also have to look to the NFL for the answer.

College football rankings seem to be solely based upon your record against dissimilar opponents

In the NFL, while your record is accounted for it’s not the overwhelming factor
The thread has gone in multiple directions, so I'll just leave it rather than trying to keep up. Thanks for responding, though!
 

Golson5

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Dino Babers, Syracuse; Craig Bohl, Wyoming; Neal Brown, West Virginia; Troy Calhoun, Air Force; Matt Campbell, Iowa State; Steve Campbell, South Alabama; Jason Candle, Toledo; Jamey Chadwell, Coastal Carolina; Paul Chryst, Wisconsin; Geoff Collins, Georgia Tech; David Cutcliffe, Duke; Butch Davis, Florida International; Manny Diaz, Miami (Fla.); Dana Dimel, Texas-El Paso; Sonny Dykes, Southern Methodist; Luke Fickell, Cincinnati; Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M; Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern; James Franklin, Penn State; Hugh Freeze, Liberty; Willie Fritz, Tulane; Scott Frost, Nebraska; Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech; Todd Graham, Hawaii; Jeff Hafley, Boston College; Thomas Hammock, Northern Illinois; Bryan Harsin, Boise State; Will Healy, Charlotte; Clay Helton, Southern California; Tyson Helton, Western Kentucky; Tom Herman, Texas; Skip Holtz, Louisiana Tech; Mike Houston, East Carolina; Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame; Chris Klieman, Kansas State; Lance Leipold, Buffalo; Tim Lester, Western Michigan; Seth Littrell, North Texas; Mike Locksley, Maryland; Scot Loeffler, Bowling Green; Chad Lunsford, Georgia Southern; Gus Malzahn, Auburn; Doug Martin, New Mexico State; Jeff Monken, Army; Dan Mullen, Florida; Billy Napier, Louisiana-Lafayette; Ken Niumatalolo, Navy; Jay Norvell, Nevada; Brian Kelly, LSU; Gary Patterson, TCU; Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee; Nick Saban, Alabama; Scott Satterfield, Louisville; Jeff Scott, South Florida; Kirby Smart, Georgia; Lovie Smith, Illinois; Jonathan Smith, Oregon State; Frank Solich, Ohio; Jake Spavital, Texas State; Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee; Kevin Sumlin, Arizona; Dabo Swinney, Clemson; Mel Tucker, Michigan State; Matt Wells, Texas Tech; Kyle Whittingham, Utah.
Thats the coaches. Not the AP
 

Golson5

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I didn’t say it was the AP,

Can’t you read ?
You didn't say it was the coaches

You said some people don't think the rankings are flawed. I said name them. You said the ranking members.

So are you saying the coaches don't think the rankings are flawed but the aP members do
 

Patrirish

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The thread has gone in multiple directions, so I'll just leave it rather than trying to keep up. Thanks for responding, though!
The ND vs FSU game where both teams had one loss where ND beat FSU, but FSU was awarded the NC is an example of a flawed rating !