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Remaining SOS

TeddyOH

ND Expert
Feb 3, 2004
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So ALL I HEAR from the "pundits" on TV and radio is about how easy ND's schedule is. Should we stumble, we have no way to recover. Furthermore, there is the implication that we lucked into an easy finishing schedule while all the Power 5 teams have to battle through their November conference schedules.

Can we put this garbage to rest right now?
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

On the ESPN Power Index, they have a pretty solid methodology to quantify remaining SOS. Right now ND is ranked #26.

How does that stack up to the mighty teams around us in the playoff rankings?
  1. Alabama 27
  2. Clemson 48
  3. LSU 50
  4. Notre Dame 26
  5. Michigan 43
  6. Georgia 35
  7. Oklahoma 19
  8. Washington State 34
  9. Kentucky 58
  10. Ohio State 16
So the only Top 10 teams with tougher schedules than ND going forward are Oklahoma and Ohio State.

Think about that. Mighty LSU, ranked ahead of us because their schedule has been so hard is ranked 50 - and that includes #1 Alabama!!! What does that tell you about LSU? That they play an FCS team and that the SEC is top heavy - as always. Even Michigan with ranked opponents in PSU and OSU is ranked #43.

So while everyone wants to rip ND and their lucky schedule, remember this. We are playing 4 legit teams, each of which has a chance to beat us. We are not backing into the playoff by any means. We have EARNED it through 8 games, and we will definitely have to EARN it in the final 4 tough games.
 
So ALL I HEAR from the "pundits" on TV and radio is about how easy ND's schedule is. Should we stumble, we have no way to recover. Furthermore, there is the implication that we lucked into an easy finishing schedule while all the Power 5 teams have to battle through their November conference schedules.

Can we put this garbage to rest right now?
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

On the ESPN Power Index, they have a pretty solid methodology to quantify remaining SOS. Right now ND is ranked #26.

How does that stack up to the mighty teams around us in the playoff rankings?
  1. Alabama 27
  2. Clemson 48
  3. LSU 50
  4. Notre Dame 26
  5. Michigan 43
  6. Georgia 35
  7. Oklahoma 19
  8. Washington State 34
  9. Kentucky 58
  10. Ohio State 16
So the only Top 10 teams with tougher schedules than ND going forward are Oklahoma and Ohio State.

Think about that. Mighty LSU, ranked ahead of us because their schedule has been so hard is ranked 50 - and that includes #1 Alabama!!! What does that tell you about LSU? That they play an FCS team and that the SEC is top heavy - as always. Even Michigan with ranked opponents in PSU and OSU is ranked #43.

So while everyone wants to rip ND and their lucky schedule, remember this. We are playing 4 legit teams, each of which has a chance to beat us. We are not backing into the playoff by any means. We have EARNED it through 8 games, and we will definitely have to EARN it in the final 4 tough games.
Hear hear!
 
Good post, only caveat is that most of those top 10 teams will likely also be playing one of the best teams in the country in their respective conference championship game which will boost those SoS rankings significantly.

Also...FSU and USC are in the midst of a really mediocre season (relative to their standards). But anytime you are facing a team with the kind of athletes on those squads, there's always a chance for losses. I'm sure playoff committee voters take this into some kind of consideration.

A lot of people are discounting FSU and USC but those games away are going to be tough down the stretch.
 
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Agree on the conference title games, but I was just focusing on the negative perception of our schedule. Comparing apples to apples.

I would argue that us not having a conference title game is essentially a wash.

By not having one, we avoid one final tough game and a potential slip up. However, it denies us a strong route to the playoffs via winning a conference title. The Big 12 didn't have a title game for years. The lack of that game cost them several chances to get into the BCS title game or playoffs. What does it say that they bent over backwards to create a conference title game?

If not having one is an advantage, then they would have never done this!
 
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only caveat is that most of those top 10 teams will likely also be playing one of the best teams in the country in their respective conference championship game which will boost those SoS rankings significantly.
I don't think this is true. If UM or OSU makes it to the B1G championship they will likely face a team from the western division with at least 3 losses unless Iowa wins out but they'll have two losses and a very weak SoS. Same with WSU in the Pac 12 and the same with Clemson in the ACC. The Big 12 is a little more interesting because all the top teams play each other down the stretch, but their conference championship game is likely going to be OU or WVU versus a team with at least 2 losses and possibly 3. The SEC is the only conference that is likely going to have a championship game featuring two highly-ranked opponents.
 
So ALL I HEAR from the "pundits" on TV and radio is about how easy ND's schedule is. Should we stumble, we have no way to recover. Furthermore, there is the implication that we lucked into an easy finishing schedule while all the Power 5 teams have to battle through their November conference schedules.

Can we put this garbage to rest right now?
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

On the ESPN Power Index, they have a pretty solid methodology to quantify remaining SOS. Right now ND is ranked #26.

How does that stack up to the mighty teams around us in the playoff rankings?
  1. Alabama 27
  2. Clemson 48
  3. LSU 50
  4. Notre Dame 26
  5. Michigan 43
  6. Georgia 35
  7. Oklahoma 19
  8. Washington State 34
  9. Kentucky 58
  10. Ohio State 16
So the only Top 10 teams with tougher schedules than ND going forward are Oklahoma and Ohio State.

Think about that. Mighty LSU, ranked ahead of us because their schedule has been so hard is ranked 50 - and that includes #1 Alabama!!! What does that tell you about LSU? That they play an FCS team and that the SEC is top heavy - as always. Even Michigan with ranked opponents in PSU and OSU is ranked #43.

So while everyone wants to rip ND and their lucky schedule, remember this. We are playing 4 legit teams, each of which has a chance to beat us. We are not backing into the playoff by any means. We have EARNED it through 8 games, and we will definitely have to EARN it in the final 4 tough games.

Any SOS that so far has LSU at 50 and Ohio State at 16 is bullshit.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
 
Ivan. Please reread the post and link.

We’re talking REMAINING SOS.

Oh ok, sorry. My bad.

ND plays four teams who are all solid bowl teams but only maybe one (NU) who has an outside shot at a New Year's Six game. As almost everyone agrees, four wins there should be enough to hold serve.

The problem with those projections is that they can't include conference championship games. Those will skew the numbers. Alabama will get a huge boost. If we make it that far, Michigan would get a much more modest boost.

I am not a big fan of dividing all opponents in between ranked at the end of the year and non ranked. It seems there is a big difference between playing a Stanford or a Sparty vs playing Ball St or Rutgers. Maybe the committee looks at games played vs teams with winning records? I dunno.
 
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Good post, only caveat is that most of those top 10 teams will likely also be playing one of the best teams in the country in their respective conference championship game which will boost those SoS rankings significantly.

Also...FSU and USC are in the midst of a really mediocre season (relative to their standards). But anytime you are facing a team with the kind of athletes on those squads, there's always a chance for losses. I'm sure playoff committee voters take this into some kind of consideration.

A lot of people are discounting FSU and USC but those games away are going to be tough down the stretch.
If we go to USC 11-0, that game is a season maker for them.
 
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So ALL I HEAR from the "pundits" on TV and radio is about how easy ND's schedule is. Should we stumble, we have no way to recover. Furthermore, there is the implication that we lucked into an easy finishing schedule while all the Power 5 teams have to battle through their November conference schedules.

Can we put this garbage to rest right now?
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

On the ESPN Power Index, they have a pretty solid methodology to quantify remaining SOS. Right now ND is ranked #26.

How does that stack up to the mighty teams around us in the playoff rankings?
  1. Alabama 27
  2. Clemson 48
  3. LSU 50
  4. Notre Dame 26
  5. Michigan 43
  6. Georgia 35
  7. Oklahoma 19
  8. Washington State 34
  9. Kentucky 58
  10. Ohio State 16
So the only Top 10 teams with tougher schedules than ND going forward are Oklahoma and Ohio State.

Think about that. Mighty LSU, ranked ahead of us because their schedule has been so hard is ranked 50 - and that includes #1 Alabama!!! What does that tell you about LSU? That they play an FCS team and that the SEC is top heavy - as always. Even Michigan with ranked opponents in PSU and OSU is ranked #43.

So while everyone wants to rip ND and their lucky schedule, remember this. We are playing 4 legit teams, each of which has a chance to beat us. We are not backing into the playoff by any means. We have EARNED it through 8 games, and we will definitely have to EARN it in the final 4 tough games.
Typical morons on ESPiN that forget while ND was playing Michigan and Stanford in September the other top teams were playing complete patsies the first month.

ND will still end up with a competitive schedule and they purposely schedule tough competition from across the country. It’s not ND’s fault that FSU & USC are average. Clemson knows what they’re doing when they play Furman and GA Southern in the first month. Bama loads up on Ark St., Louisiana, and the Citadel, yet it’s crickets from the media.
 
Typical morons on ESPiN that forget while ND was playing Michigan and Stanford in September the other top teams were playing complete patsies the first month.

ND will still end up with a competitive schedule and they purposely schedule tough competition from across the country. It’s not ND’s fault that FSU & USC are average. Clemson knows what they’re doing when they play Furman and GA Southern in the first month. Bama loads up on Ark St., Louisiana, and the Citadel, yet it’s crickets from the media.

Every Fckn year its the same shit from those teams. Have you ever heard the media call em out for it?! Ever?? Makes me sick. You’re right....they know exactly what they are doing.
 
I don't think this is true. If UM or OSU makes it to the B1G championship they will likely face a team from the western division with at least 3 losses unless Iowa wins out but they'll have two losses and a very weak SoS. Same with WSU in the Pac 12 and the same with Clemson in the ACC. The Big 12 is a little more interesting because all the top teams play each other down the stretch, but their conference championship game is likely going to be OU or WVU versus a team with at least 2 losses and possibly 3. The SEC is the only conference that is likely going to have a championship game featuring two highly-ranked opponents.
This is why conference championship games don't make sense to me. It's just another way to make money, as I don't think it's good for the game in general.
 
This is why conference championship games don't make sense to me. It's just another way to make money, as I don't think it's good for the game in general.
It makes sense if your conference is too big to do a round Robin because it gives you a way to provide a clean tie break. Also, in theory if your divisions are balanced the champ game works.
 
It makes sense if your conference is too big to do a round Robin because it gives you a way to provide a clean tie break. Also, in theory if your divisions are balanced the champ game works.

The B12 only added a CCG because they felt slighted by not having a 13th game when Ohio State was picked over Baylor and TCU.

But one of these years, a 12-0 B12 team is going to be upset in their CCG and then be left out. It cuts both ways.
 
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