I'm a new poster to this forum, but have several observations after being on here for a few weeks.
The difference between a 4-8 2016 ND team and a 12-0 2018 ND team is insignificant and within the margin of error of average for the team. It all comes down to schedule. ND typically plays roughly the same name brand of teams each year, but sometimes those teams are good, and sometimes not. In 2018 final AP poll, Michigan was the highest ranked regular season opponent at 14. In 2016, USC and Stanford were ranked higher than that. ND tends to be either slightly better or slightly worse than opponents, and if the highest ranked opponent is 13, there is a good enough chance that they can go undefeated with a little luck. On the flip slide there is also just as good of a chance they can go 4-8 by being slightly worse than opponents. This is the conference conundrum, where typically you play 1-4 really good teams, and a lot of bad teams, so you are more likely to by 9-3 every year, vs the independent schedule of team all ranked 15 - 30. The variability of ND W/L is going to be higher.
Because you can go 12-0 without being a legit top 5 program (regardless of what the rankings say) and make the playoffs, there is little chance you can beat 2 very good teams to win the Natty. Any given Saturday, you can win one, but the odds are significantly stacked against you to win 2 in a row. With the old BCS format, you could have maybe lucked into a championship with a good match up, or an off day for the opponent, but not with the playoff. I don't see this changing under BK and the current structure. Some of this comes down to lack of conference affiliation. If in 2018 ND had to play Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, or Oklahoma in a conference championship game, odds are they would have lost and there would be no conversation about ND being overrated in another major bowl game blowout. That conference championship game is essentially a playoff game only in the fact that the loser is out. They would be like Georgia or Texas, a good team who is not quite at the same level as the playoff teams. It is a disservice to the team to let them think they can compete with the elite teams in the country because of a 12-0 record.
The 27 point loss to Clemson compared to Alabama's 28 point loss does not mean that ND is on the same level as Alabama. Clemson played a mediocre game against ND, and a perfect game against Alabama. Clemson spent 4 weeks preparing for Alabama, and only 1 week on ND. Clemson's focus coming into every season now is how to beat Alabama, unconcerned about any other teams they could face. It is a 1v1 championship rivalry that Clemson has figured out how to play. ND is not at this level. ND's loss to Clemson did not come down to lack of PI calls, or Love getting hurt, or momentum killed because of overturned calls. It was because Clemson has better talent and the coaching staff is superior. I saw a lot of overenthusiastic ND fans talking about how Clemson would be crushed because they almost lost to Syracuse, or they gave of 500 yards passing to Bentley, but none of that matter in team vs team match ups. Clemson is a better team than ND, and it doesn't help the ND case to push the narrative that they could beat Clemson.
I have seen several posts that say ND could win if they were allowed to recruit 5 star talent like Lawrence or Ross. This is nonsense. If either of these kids wanted to go to ND, they would be playing there today. It has been suggested that if ND had Trevor Lawrence and Clemson had Book, that ND with Lawrence would have beat Clemson. That is reasonably plausible if the switch had happened in Dec. If the switch had happened in August, Clemson would still have won, because of superior coaching, and a better battle between Book and Kelly Bryant. Not sure Book would have even been on the field.
In order to be considered elite, ND is going to need to beat some SEC teams or Clemson. Beating Michigan does nothing for reputation. 2 great opportunities in the next 2 years. At Georgia, and Clemson at home. ND has got to win 1 of these 2 to take the next step. The thing about becoming elite is it doesn't matter who you lose to, it matter who you beat, and ND hasn't beat an elite team in a very long time.
The difference between a 4-8 2016 ND team and a 12-0 2018 ND team is insignificant and within the margin of error of average for the team. It all comes down to schedule. ND typically plays roughly the same name brand of teams each year, but sometimes those teams are good, and sometimes not. In 2018 final AP poll, Michigan was the highest ranked regular season opponent at 14. In 2016, USC and Stanford were ranked higher than that. ND tends to be either slightly better or slightly worse than opponents, and if the highest ranked opponent is 13, there is a good enough chance that they can go undefeated with a little luck. On the flip slide there is also just as good of a chance they can go 4-8 by being slightly worse than opponents. This is the conference conundrum, where typically you play 1-4 really good teams, and a lot of bad teams, so you are more likely to by 9-3 every year, vs the independent schedule of team all ranked 15 - 30. The variability of ND W/L is going to be higher.
Because you can go 12-0 without being a legit top 5 program (regardless of what the rankings say) and make the playoffs, there is little chance you can beat 2 very good teams to win the Natty. Any given Saturday, you can win one, but the odds are significantly stacked against you to win 2 in a row. With the old BCS format, you could have maybe lucked into a championship with a good match up, or an off day for the opponent, but not with the playoff. I don't see this changing under BK and the current structure. Some of this comes down to lack of conference affiliation. If in 2018 ND had to play Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, or Oklahoma in a conference championship game, odds are they would have lost and there would be no conversation about ND being overrated in another major bowl game blowout. That conference championship game is essentially a playoff game only in the fact that the loser is out. They would be like Georgia or Texas, a good team who is not quite at the same level as the playoff teams. It is a disservice to the team to let them think they can compete with the elite teams in the country because of a 12-0 record.
The 27 point loss to Clemson compared to Alabama's 28 point loss does not mean that ND is on the same level as Alabama. Clemson played a mediocre game against ND, and a perfect game against Alabama. Clemson spent 4 weeks preparing for Alabama, and only 1 week on ND. Clemson's focus coming into every season now is how to beat Alabama, unconcerned about any other teams they could face. It is a 1v1 championship rivalry that Clemson has figured out how to play. ND is not at this level. ND's loss to Clemson did not come down to lack of PI calls, or Love getting hurt, or momentum killed because of overturned calls. It was because Clemson has better talent and the coaching staff is superior. I saw a lot of overenthusiastic ND fans talking about how Clemson would be crushed because they almost lost to Syracuse, or they gave of 500 yards passing to Bentley, but none of that matter in team vs team match ups. Clemson is a better team than ND, and it doesn't help the ND case to push the narrative that they could beat Clemson.
I have seen several posts that say ND could win if they were allowed to recruit 5 star talent like Lawrence or Ross. This is nonsense. If either of these kids wanted to go to ND, they would be playing there today. It has been suggested that if ND had Trevor Lawrence and Clemson had Book, that ND with Lawrence would have beat Clemson. That is reasonably plausible if the switch had happened in Dec. If the switch had happened in August, Clemson would still have won, because of superior coaching, and a better battle between Book and Kelly Bryant. Not sure Book would have even been on the field.
In order to be considered elite, ND is going to need to beat some SEC teams or Clemson. Beating Michigan does nothing for reputation. 2 great opportunities in the next 2 years. At Georgia, and Clemson at home. ND has got to win 1 of these 2 to take the next step. The thing about becoming elite is it doesn't matter who you lose to, it matter who you beat, and ND hasn't beat an elite team in a very long time.