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Notre Dame most important game for UM in 2018

hfhmilkman

Irish Expert
Aug 14, 2017
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I'm getting bored with politics as football is far more interesting. I am making the case that as a Michigan fan the Notre Dame game is by far the most important game on the schedule. I do not think it is Notre Dame's most important. Here is my reasoning.

UM has a killer schedule. Preseason @OSU is ranked 4, Wisc 6, @ND 9, PSU 10, and @MSU 13. There are also trap games @NW and Nebraska. UM fans like angry populists are demanding a break out season. Anything less than 10-2 will send out the tar and feathers even if 9-3 is what one would expect. If UM wins the first game, splitting the splitting the remaining four games plus avoiding trap games gets a 10-2 record. Getting to 10-2 is far more important than rivalry games at least for 2018.

Contrast to ND, the hardest remaining games are verse Stanford 14, @USC 15, @VTech 17 and FSU 20. That is not a schedule to sneeze at but no games in the top 10 where UM has 4. A loss does not mean ND cannot sweep the rest of the games or go 10-1 the rest of the way. Though I do understand preseason rankings are not always accurate. Writers rarely look at 2nd level metrics. MSU could not run the ball last year and both of Wisc's starting DE's are currently hurt. But I gotta go with what I have.

The big knock for Harbaugh and UM in general is there has not been a signature road victory. This is an opportunity to get it and set up a season not for success but not failure. If UM loses this game they have to win 3 of the remaining 4 plus win all trap games to hit what fans will demand which I see as a tall order. For better or worse UM fans are about done with Harbaugh if they do not see results. If he goes I think UM will be poison as no coach would consider such an impossible task.

Contrast to Kelly who being at ND for a decade is relatively secure. The composition of ND's team is such that it will beat the teams they are supposed to beat. VTech and USC will be tougher as road games. But I see all other teams on ND's schedule as very beatable.

What does this mean? Regardless who is the better team I believe Michigan will be more the more desperate team as more is a stake. I think this will make for a great game because so much is at stake. A loss could be the beginning of he end.
 
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When UM loses to OSU (again) and MSU (again), that will be the end. Even a victory over ND (not gonna happen) wouldn't save Jimmy from the tar and feathers, as that would be a distant memory by then.

Lose to all three of those rivals??? JH better find a real estate agent. The Browns will be needing a coach soon.
 
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When UM loses to OSU (again) and MSU (again), that will be the end. Even a victory over ND (not gonna happen) wouldn't save Jimmy from the tar and feathers, as that would be a distant memory by then.

Lose to all three of those rivals??? JH better find a real estate agent. The Browns will be needing a coach soon.
Jimmy Boy and the gang beat OSU this year. Take it to the bank
 
From my understanding the Michigan defense is very good. Wimbush is still unproven and our running back situation is not optimal. We have a new D coordinator. Why do some keep posting how ND has the edge in this game? Tougher, more prepared team, low turnovers, low penalties will probably win. Can't predict in game 1.
It is also my understanding that Harbaugh has a lifetime contract. Doesn't that mean for life? Kellys status is year to year as far as I am concerned. Tough games at VT, Northwestern, at Syracuse NY, at Wake and home v Pitt is always a nemesis and then indestructible Navy. The only automatic win for ND is Ball State. All of the rest are TBD. Stop making it out like Kelly is such a dominant coach. Good recruiter though.
 
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"The only automatic win for ND is Ball State. All of the rest are TBD?" Really? While I don't believe any game is an "automatic win," I think you're being a bit ridiculous. ND's D may not be as highly ranked as Michigan's but it is up there in the top echelon this year. Wimbush is hardly "unproven" - inconsistent maybe, yes - but he played a very tough schedule last year and can only be better. Technically yes, our D Coordinator is a "rookie," but not new to the Irish and not without help from the coaching staff. As for our RB situation, debatable....there's talent there.

If you're going to be this tough against he Irish, then you have to be equally tough against Michigan's Offense and their struggles and unknowns. It doesn't take a clairvoyant to predict a tough, close game.
 
Top 7 most important games for UM in order:

OSU
MSU
PSU
WIS
ND
NW
NEB
 
From my understanding the Michigan defense is very good. Wimbush is still unproven and our running back situation is not optimal. We have a new D coordinator. Why do some keep posting how ND has the edge in this game? Tougher, more prepared team, low turnovers, low penalties will probably win. Can't predict in game 1.
It is also my understanding that Harbaugh has a lifetime contract. Doesn't that mean for life? Kellys status is year to year as far as I am concerned. Tough games at VT, Northwestern, at Syracuse NY, at Wake and home v Pitt is always a nemesis and then indestructible Navy. The only automatic win for ND is Ball State. All of the rest are TBD. Stop making it out like Kelly is such a dominant coach. Good recruiter though.
Michigan's D is beyond very good. They may be the best in the country. For my money they are bigger stronger and better than UGA's. People are not giving them credit, I hope the team is.
 
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Michigan's D is beyond very good. They may be the best in the country. For my money they are bigger stronger and better than UGA's. People are not giving them credit, I hope the team is.
Everything depends on Wimbush being poised and making completions.....if ND has balance than the Michigan D can be cracked open like any team in CFB.
 
Everything depends on Wimbush being poised and making completions.....if ND has balance than the Michigan D can be cracked open like any team in CFB.
I have been on record saying if (and it's looking this way) Dex doesn't play, we lost to Michigan. I see us going 8-4 or 9-3

Michigan- L
Ball St- W
Vandy- W
Wake- toss up
Stanford- toss up
Vtech- L
Pitt- toss up
Navy- W
NW- W
FSU- W
Cuse- W
USC- W

Pitt who beats someone they shouldn't every year (national champs Clemson, Miami) scares me. Wake the week before Stanford scares me as well.
 
Michigan's D is beyond very good. They may be the best in the country. For my money they are bigger stronger and better than UGA's. People are not giving them credit, I hope the team is.
when did michigan become the 85 bears ? geez
 
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I have been on record saying if (and it's looking this way) Dex doesn't play, we lost to Michigan. I see us going 8-4 or 9-3

Michigan- L
Ball St- W
Vandy- W
Wake- toss up
Stanford- toss up
Vtech- L
Pitt- toss up
Navy- W
NW- W
FSU- W
Cuse- W
USC- W

Pitt who beats someone they shouldn't every year (national champs Clemson, Miami) scares me. Wake the week before Stanford scares me as well.

Your love with Dex is just silly.
You are like the guy on the Premium board who lost his stuff over Zaire for a year, saying he was a Heisman QB who would dominate in the NFL. Turns out it was a family member.
 
Your love with Dex is just silly.
You are like the guy on the Premium board who lost his stuff over Zaire for a year, saying he was a Heisman QB who would dominate in the NFL. Turns out it was a family member.


I hope at that time they were not harsh to that guy
 
Top 7 most important games for UM in order:

OSU
MSU
PSU
WIS
ND
NW
NEB

"Top 7 most important games for UM in order:

OSU
MSU
PSU
WIS
ND
NW
NEB"


Maybe in order of Big 10 and overall status -- but, since Michigan does not play OSU until the last game -- a loss to ND in week 1 will set a very bad tone in Ann Arbor -- Michigan State and PSU are also on the schedule before OSU (as well as the others) --
 
"Top 7 most important games for UM in order:

OSU
MSU
PSU
WIS
ND
NW
NEB"


Maybe in order of Big 10 and overall status -- but, since Michigan does not play OSU until the last game -- a loss to ND in week 1 will set a very bad tone in Ann Arbor -- Michigan State and PSU are also on the schedule before OSU (as well as the others) --

Both ND and Michigan can get into the playoff with a loss to one another. On the other hand, it is less likely that ND would make the playoff with a loss to USC or Michigan get into the playoff with a loss to Ohio State. From that POV, I can see AdvanSix's logic.
 
There are two narratives in this thread. One is who wins and what must happen. That has been discussed a lot already. My original intention is still the focus on the importance of the game. UM has survived losing to rivals in the past along with other programs. I recall FSU's heartbreaking streak against Miami. Until Harbaugh turns it around in recruiting OSU will always have the better talent and be more likely to win. UM is recruiting well in 2019 and I believe Harbaugh is as good a X/O coach as Meyer. Heck, Harbaugh almost beat OSU with O'Korn. If he can do that with O'Korn what could he do with a real Div I QB.

However for the needs of today I still hold ND is the most important game. It is a road victory against a potential BCS team. A win means there is wiggle room for other losses. I have ND the 2nd most likely loss on the schedule after OSU. If UM beats ND, than OSU is just the cherry.

I see the other games against Wisc, PSU, and MSU as less tough. Wisc may still be dealing with both starting DE's being out. PSU is down Barkley and the coach who made the offense happen. MSU had a terrible offense and had the good fortune of playing a lot of teams either in bad weather or without the starting QB. ND really does not have a flaw. So to beat ND in South Bend will not be flukey.

Now there is the question of how good is UM's defense. No one can project the Bear's Buddy Ryan defense or the great Ravens defense of the early 2000's. For that to happen everything has to line up. However the ingredients are there. It could all fall apart because of inches and injuries.

If people got through my long winded analysis, I made a case that UM through about 8.5 to 9 possessions was the best defense in college football. Only two teams had any success in that window being OSU and PSU. The major flaw was lack of depth specifically the defensive line. It is possible that the backups that I project to be good may not pan out. Which is why the game is played. If they do turn out I see no reason why the UM defense cannot keep up its havok rate.

I am very curious to see how Don Brown deals with the Wimbush spread & shred. Brown made a living at BC thwarting with a lot less talent. This is Browns defense now. He has two first year corners who gave up a combined 21 catches total. So lots of opportunity for blitzing.
 
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There are two narratives in this thread. One is who wins and what must happen. That has been discussed a lot already. My original intention is still the focus on the importance of the game. UM has survived losing to rivals in the past along with other programs. I recall FSU's heartbreaking streak against Miami. Until Harbaugh turns it around in recruiting OSU will always have the better talent and be more likely to win. UM is recruiting well in 2019 and I believe Harbaugh is as good a X/O coach as Meyer. Heck, Harbaugh almost beat OSU with O'Korn. If he can do that with O'Korn what could he do with a real Div I QB.

However for the needs of today I still hold ND is the most important game. It is a road victory against a potential BCS team. A win means there is wiggle room for other losses. I have ND the 2nd most likely loss on the schedule after OSU. If UM beats ND, than OSU is just the cherry.

I see the other games against Wisc, PSU, and MSU as less tough. Wisc may still be dealing with both starting DE's being out. PSU is down Barkley and the coach who made the offense happen. MSU had a terrible offense and had the good fortune of playing a lot of teams either in bad weather or without the starting QB. ND really does not have a flaw. So to beat ND in South Bend will not be flukey.

Now there is the question of how good is UM's defense. No one can project the Bear's Buddy Ryan defense or the great Ravens defense of the early 2000's. For that to happen everything has to line up. However the ingredients are there. It could all fall apart because of inches and injuries.

If people got through my long winded analysis, I made a case that UM through about 8.5 to 9 possessions was the best defense in college football. Only two teams had any success in that window being OSU and PSU. The major flaw was lack of depth specifically the defensive line. It is possible that the backups that I project to be good may not pan out. Which is why the game is played. If they do turn out I see no reason why the UM defense cannot keep up its havok rate.

I am very curious to see how Don Brown deals with the Wimbush spread & shred. Brown made a living at BC thwarting with a lot less talent. This is Browns defense now. He has two first year corners who gave up a combined 21 catches total. So lots of opportunity for blitzing.
harbaugh does not belong in the same conversation with meyer as a college coach. he hasn't achieved anything at the collegiate level.
 
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harbaugh does not belong in the same conversation with meyer as a college coach. he hasn't achieved anything at the collegiate level.
Meyer has done something Harbaugh has not. He quit. When Saban came to Alabama and it was clear Saban was going to out recruit Meyer, he gave a sob story about how it was so tough to recruit at UF and boldy ran away. Then when the dust cleared he boldly chose another loaded program whose recruiting base was not threatened by Alabama.

If you measure talent by wins alone you will make false conclusions like Phil Jackson is the greatest basketball coach of all time. The variance of sports means that part of the output is the nature of circumstance and good fortune. John Beilein is ten times the coach of John Calipari. He will probably never win a NC. But using your definition he is a loser.

I'm sure Meyer is a good coach. To be honest as a non expert I do not have a way to say how great one coach is better than another. But what I do know is Harbaugh is a competitor. Perhaps he will meekly run away if UM has another underperforming season. My prediction is he would never perform a Meyer. They will have to fire him to get rid of him.
 
Meyer has done something Harbaugh has not. He quit. When Saban came to Alabama and it was clear Saban was going to out recruit Meyer, he gave a sob story about how it was so tough to recruit at UF and boldy ran away. Then when the dust cleared he boldly chose another loaded program whose recruiting base was not threatened by Alabama.

If you measure talent by wins alone you will make false conclusions like Phil Jackson is the greatest basketball coach of all time. The variance of sports means that part of the output is the nature of circumstance and good fortune. John Beilein is ten times the coach of John Calipari. He will probably never win a NC. But using your definition he is a loser.

I'm sure Meyer is a good coach. To be honest as a non expert I do not have a way to say how great one coach is better than another. But what I do know is Harbaugh is a competitor. Perhaps he will meekly run away if UM has another underperforming season. My prediction is he would never perform a Meyer. They will have to fire him to get rid of him.
as a college coach he's done nothing to deserve being in the same conversation with urban meyer. nothing. i never referred to any coach as a " loser ". your word not mine. beilen is a very good coach. ten times better. no.
 
I hope at that time they were not harsh to that guy

No. There was a legitimate divide among fans who thought either Kizer or Zaire should QB the team after Zaire came back from injury.
But one person was over the top. He hammered Kizer & said Zaire was the best in the country. It was bizarre.
That’s why I mentioned it here. Some are actually saying Jones is a MAC RB & ND can’t win games without Dex. It’s the same situation.
 
as a college coach he's done nothing to deserve being in the same conversation with urban meyer. nothing. i never referred to any coach as a " loser ". your word not mine. beilen is a very good coach. ten times better. no.
I agree you did not say Harbaugh was a loser. That was my inner Feyerabend attempting to illicit a response with exaggeration. But you did say he has achieved nothing at the collegiate level which to me is another way of saying "loser". Does this mean that Pat Fitzgerald will never achieve anything at the collegiate level because NW will never win a division championship much less a championship? Or Gene Chizik has?

That is the problem with twitter responses. It leaves everything to the imagination. Me personally I think we depend too much on zero sum gains for determining success and failure.
 
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Your love with Dex is just silly.
You are like the guy on the Premium board who lost his stuff over Zaire for a year, saying he was a Heisman QB who would dominate in the NFL. Turns out it was a family member.
Dex is extremely talented. Jones is not, and lacks speed.
 
I agree you did not say Harbaugh was a loser. That was my inner Feyerabend attempting to illicit a response with exaggeration. But you did say he has achieved nothing at the collegiate level which to me is another way of saying "loser". Does this mean that Pat Fitzgerald will never achieve anything at the collegiate level because NW will never win a division championship much less a championship? Or Gene Chizik has?

That is the problem with twitter responses. It leaves everything to the imagination. Me personally I think we depend too much on zero sum gains for determining success and failure.
winning is part of the equation. if not why bother ? fitzgerald is a solid coach in my eyes no more no less. i think he has done a fine job at northwestern. one of the best coaches out there ? far from it.way different level of expectation at northwestern. the coaching dynamic is not black and white.
 
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Dex is extremely talented. Jones is not, and lacks speed.

How fast is Dex?
In the opening game he easily got caught from behind twice. In fact, fast forward this clip to the 16:40 mark & you will see Dex run through a huge hole, running full speed, and a safety, not a speedy CB, comes across the field & chases him down from behind. This actually has happened to Dex multiple times. Last year people argued about Adams & Dex, & it was made abundantly clear that Adams is much faster, & Dex isn’t a speed guy at all.

http://www.theotterroom.com/2017/09/04/notre-dame-romps-temple-in-season-opener-reaction/
 
Dex is extremely talented. Jones is not, and lacks speed.
How fast is Dex?
In the opening game he easily got caught from behind twice. In fact, fast forward this clip to the 16:40 mark & you will see Dex run through a huge hole, running full speed, and a safety, not a speedy CB, comes across the field & chases him down from behind. This actually has happened to Dex multiple times. Last year people argued about Adams & Dex, & it was made abundantly clear that Adams is much faster, & Dex isn’t a speed guy at all.

http://www.theotterroom.com/2017/09/04/notre-dame-romps-temple-in-season-opener-reaction/

Good point: ND lacks speed at RB.
 
winning is part of the equation. if not why bother ? fitzgerald is a solid coach in my eyes no more no less. i think he has done a fine job at northwestern. one of the best coaches out there ? far from it.way different level of expectation at northwestern. the coaching dynamic is not black and white.
I guess I will go back to our correspondence on the NFL and comparing Saban and Belichick. Winning is not everything at the collegiate level because we know that an average coach can still be incredibly successful if he is able to recruit better. There is a level of competence required which we can call the "Zook floor". I am not as impressed by college coaches who have stacked teams that in my opinion win on talent alone. There is a reason why many of these coaches fail at the NFL and NBA level. Yes, you can only do what your GM gives you to work with. But too many of these coaches completely depend on positional superiority instead of actual tactics. I use basketball since to me the differential is even more stark. Is Brad Stevens just another good coach because he has won no championships? He did something Rick Pitino and Calipari could not which is win in the NBA. I hate Boston. But it is hard to hate Stevens after a masterful job of keeping Boston competitive. I'll take Stevens over any of the program coach's like Izzo and K much less Roy Williams who would be helpless if the slate were even. Given equal talent a Belichick would obliterate Saban. Its just human nature. Those who have learned to live without a built in advantage get better at getting the most out of their teams. This is why Beilein with one meaningful NBA prospect made Izzo look like a fool. Izzo no longer knows how to win at chess unless he has a couple extra queens. Coach K is not far behind. He just has better players. But if Duke wins the NC we will all label him the best coach even if all he is doing is replicating Saban's model of getting all of the best players to play for him. I'll take Brad Stevens any day.
 
Good point: ND lacks speed at RB.
I have not scouted either back. That all said breakaway speed in my opinion is overrated. I want a RB who does the other 95% of situations better. Wimbush is the breakaway RB. I think it is more important for the complement to pick up 5 instead 3 and 3 instead of 1 plus, take the swing pass, and pick up the blitz. If you need lightening, run a 21 package with a converted wide receiver.
 
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How fast is Dex?
In the opening game he easily got caught from behind twice. In fact, fast forward this clip to the 16:40 mark & you will see Dex run through a huge hole, running full speed, and a safety, not a speedy CB, comes across the field & chases him down from behind. This actually has happened to Dex multiple times. Last year people argued about Adams & Dex, & it was made abundantly clear that Adams is much faster, & Dex isn’t a speed guy at all.

http://www.theotterroom.com/2017/09/04/notre-dame-romps-temple-in-season-opener-reaction/

The DB did not come all the way across the field, he actually was not too far behind Dex. 2nd, I believe that Dex was hindered by a hammy for most of last year as well.

Also -- I would not say that the DB was not a speedy one -- he looked to have some giddy in his gallop.
 
I guess I will go back to our correspondence on the NFL and comparing Saban and Belichick. Winning is not everything at the collegiate level because we know that an average coach can still be incredibly successful if he is able to recruit better. There is a level of competence required which we can call the "Zook floor". I am not as impressed by college coaches who have stacked teams that in my opinion win on talent alone. There is a reason why many of these coaches fail at the NFL and NBA level. Yes, you can only do what your GM gives you to work with. But too many of these coaches completely depend on positional superiority instead of actual tactics. I use basketball since to me the differential is even more stark. Is Brad Stevens just another good coach because he has won no championships? He did something Rick Pitino and Calipari could not which is win in the NBA. I hate Boston. But it is hard to hate Stevens after a masterful job of keeping Boston competitive. I'll take Stevens over any of the program coach's like Izzo and K much less Roy Williams who would be helpless if the slate were even. Given equal talent a Belichick would obliterate Saban. Its just human nature. Those who have learned to live without a built in advantage get better at getting the most out of their teams. This is why Beilein with one meaningful NBA prospect made Izzo look like a fool. Izzo no longer knows how to win at chess unless he has a couple extra queens. Coach K is not far behind. He just has better players. But if Duke wins the NC we will all label him the best coach even if all he is doing is replicating Saban's model of getting all of the best players to play for him. I'll take Brad Stevens any day.

coaching up your three stars is a different skill than getting the most out of your 5s. I think the latter is more important when you are gunning for a national title.
 
How fast is Dex?
In the opening game he easily got caught from behind twice. In fact, fast forward this clip to the 16:40 mark & you will see Dex run through a huge hole, running full speed, and a safety, not a speedy CB, comes across the field & chases him down from behind. This actually has happened to Dex multiple times. Last year people argued about Adams & Dex, & it was made abundantly clear that Adams is much faster, & Dex isn’t a speed guy at all.

http://www.theotterroom.com/2017/09/04/notre-dame-romps-temple-in-season-opener-reaction/
He doesn't have long speed (neither does jones) but he has great speed for 10-20 yard runs. He probably did have nagging injuries slow him down last year as well.
 
The DB did not come all the way across the field, he actually was not too far behind Dex. 2nd, I believe that Dex was hindered by a hammy for most of last year as well.

Also -- I would not say that the DB was not a speedy one -- he looked to have some giddy in his gallop.

The DB was Randall, a strong Safety who is 220 lbs & known as a hard hitter, not fast at all. Not even close.
And he had boundary coverage, was standing still & then turned 180 degrees to start running after Dex was already facing the end zone & running at full speed.
And Dex wasn’t hampered by a hamstring on opening day agsinst Temple.
 
coaching up your three stars is a different skill than getting the most out of your 5s. I think the latter is more important when you are gunning for a national title.
That is a loaded question and as only a very tiny sliver of teams have the problem of managing their horde of 5 stars. Just using scout and doing a quick count the only programs with 10 or 5 stars recruited in 2011-2017 are Alabama with 33, FSU 23, USC 15, OSU 13, Georgia 13, LSU 12, and Clemson 10.

If you look at what scout.com thinks some teams rocket to the top and get in the top5. Then they have a couple down years. Alabama is really in a class of their own in every year is a great year. Their idea of a down year is 2018 when they were only #6. If we want to make any conclusions I would say that one great class does not guarantee consistent BCS appearances. It is the consistency of class after a class. If a Hand fails to pan out it is okay because you have Payne the next year. It is just a matter of statistics. Give me 6 queens on the chessboard and I will obliterate the worlds greatest chess program.
 
Theo ly fans that argue that stars (elite players) do not matter are fans that are not successfully recruiting them.
 
He doesn't have long speed (neither does jones) but he has great speed for 10-20 yard runs. He probably did have nagging injuries slow him down last year as well.

Coach D has a good article about Jones. It covers his strengths and weaknesses. That said, Dexter is a good back not great he has strengths and weaknesses also. He is neither the savior of our backfield nor is he the slug. However, he can help but if he cannot there will be others.
 
Coach D has a good article about Jones. It covers his strengths and weaknesses. That said, Dexter is a good back not great he has strengths and weaknesses also. He is neither the savior of our backfield nor is he the slug. However, he can help but if he cannot there will be others.
I think a lot of people are very biased against Dex because he hasn't been available. I just know for a fact when I watch him run the ball he is no doubt the best runner of the football we have, and it's not even close...
 
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I think a lot of people are very biased against Dex because he hasn't been available. I just know for a fact when I watch him run the ball he is no doubt the best runner of the football we have, and it's not even close...

People aren’t biased vs Dex, they are just defending Jones.
You are the one making statements that Jones is a MAC level RB & ND can’t win without Dex.
So you started the bias & now are playing the victim?
 
People aren’t biased vs Dex, they are just defending Jones.
You are the one making statements that Jones is a MAC level RB & ND can’t win without Dex.
So you started the bias & now are playing the victim?
I'm definitely biased for Dex. He is clearly the only back on the roster talented enough to start at a big time program. Jones has had countless opportunity to prove he's good, he just isn't. Last camp he was apparently so good people thought he'd start over Adams, I'm not buying it. He has not once shown he is good. Dex has been extremely dynamic, he just needs better coaching. Watch the MSU game and see how good Dex was
 
I'm definitely biased for Dex. He is clearly the only back on the roster talented enough to start at a big time program. Jones has had countless opportunity to prove he's good, he just isn't. Last camp he was apparently so good people thought he'd start over Adams, I'm not buying it. He has not once shown he is good. Dex has been extremely dynamic, he just needs better coaching. Watch the MSU game and see how good Dex was
No, he needs a quality work ethic and better decision making skills. The only thing holding Dex back is Dex. Any coach would be foolish to count on him given his history.
 
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