Note to ND Die Hards

[NyyorkerND]

This is the harsh reality, some of you won't believe it, but it's the truth.

https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/02/08/mailbag-signing-day-rankings-notre-dame-nebraska

 

[NDSMC78]

Wow. If Andy Staples says something, it must be so.

 

[tbonesays]

Yippe Kai Yay

 

[NDAFArly]

I agree & disagree with that article.

I agree that averaging 10 wins a year like OSU, Bama, etc is not realistic for ND, but not for why he says.

Schedules determine why those teams have guaranteed 10 wins & ND doesn’t.

Those teams don’t leave their region (often times their state) the first month of the season. Then play their conference in region, mixed in a bad FCS opponent & a low level FBS team.
They play 2-3 games a year that are competitive.
This past season Bama won 10 FBS games & made the playoff. They played 3 ranked teams, (one that ND beat) & lost handidly to one of them.
ND played 7 ranked teams. Tied for most wins against top 25. ND played in Florida one week, then home against a triple option team, then out in California the next.
ND has never played a FCS team (1 of 3 schools who haven’t).

If ND had a schedule like the “elite” it would look like this:

Opening month don’t leave Indiana, except for maybe a “neutral” game in Chicago.

Ball State
Purdue
Indiana
Indiana State


Then start the “ACC schedule” of 5 games with a FCS game snuck in.

No more trips to California.
Navy immediately after playing FCS school who runs option.

Mix in MSU or UM every other 2 years.

So you start off 6 wins to inflate your ranking. Then get to 10 without much effort after mixing in the FCS game & Navy. Basically you play 3-4 games that are competitive & you probably are favored in all of them.

10-2 or 11-1 like clockwork depending on how the 1-2 “Big Ones” go each year.

You can schedule 10 wins. Ask Washington.

 

[NyyorkerND]

Wow. If Andy Staples says something, it must be so.

He raised topics that many on the board have been bringing up for years as detriments to the program and to his credit he didn't dig into campus life which we all know is a drawback in comparison to other major programs. 30 years isn't a fluke, it's a trend.

 

[NyyorkerND]

I agree & disagree with that article.

I agree that averaging 10 wins a year like OSU, Bama, etc is not realistic for ND, but not for why he says.

Schedules determine why those teams have guaranteed 10 wins & ND doesn’t.

Those teams don’t leave their region (often times their state) the first month of the season. Then play their conference in region, mixed in a bad FCS opponent & a low level FBS team.
They play 2-3 games a year that are competitive.
This past season Bama won 10 FBS games & made the playoff. They played 3 ranked teams, (one that ND beat) & lost handidly to one of them.
ND played 7 ranked teams. Tied for most wins against top 25. ND played in Florida one week, then home against a triple option team, then out in California the next.
ND has never played a FCS team (1 of 3 schools who haven’t).

If ND had a schedule like the “elite” it would look like this:

Opening month don’t leave Indiana, except for maybe a “neutral” game in Chicago.

Ball State
Purdue
Indiana
Indiana State


Then start the “ACC schedule” of 5 games with a FCS game snuck in.

No more trips to California.
Navy immediately after playing FCS school who runs option.

Mix in MSU or UM every other 2 years.

So you start off 6 wins to inflate your ranking. Then get to 10 without much effort after mixing in the FCS game & Navy. Basically you play 3-4 games that are competitive & you probably are favored in all of them.

10-2 or 11-1 like clockwork depending on how the 1-2 “Big Ones” go each year.

You can schedule 10 wins. Ask Washington.

I agree we can change the schedule but your missing the point Farly. We go to those areas for recruiting purposes, with the exception of NY which is about money. So doing so hurts recruiting. Bama can schedule those games bc they already have the recruiting base locally which we do not.

 

[twalsh]

This is the harsh reality, some of you won't believe it, but it's the truth.

https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/02/08/mailbag-signing-day-rankings-notre-dame-nebraska

I'm not so sure we need to equate one guy's opinion with "harsh reality". We have people on this board who have said the exact same things he said.

He does ignore the schedule differences involved with purely comparing gross numbers of wins. A lot of the teams he mentions start out 3-0 every year based on their non-conference schedule, so they just need to win 7 out of 10 to get to ten wins. We don't have that luxury. We feel guilty if we have one game on our schedule where all we have to do is throw our uniforms on the field to win. Imagine the reaction if we trotted out a schedule that had Austin Peay, Middle Tennessee and UMass on it, all in the same season (that's Georgia in 2018 for those that don't know).

 

[twalsh]

to his credit he didn't dig into campus life which we all know is a drawback in comparison to other major programs.

Yet for many of OUR recruits, it's one of the attractions.

 

[NDAFArly]

I agree we can change the schedule but your missing the point Farly. We go to those areas for recruiting purposes, with the exception of NY which is about money. So doing so hurts recruiting. Bama can schedule those games bc they already have the recruiting base locally which we do not.

The “elite” schools also recruit nationally. Bama, OSU, etc go everywhere. They can because of winning. If ND wins 10-11 games every year they also can use winning & name recognition to nationally recruit.
OSU doesn’t play a national schedule but they get kids nationally. Same with Bama.

 

[justified1]

“One of the keys to happiness in college football is understanding the realistic expectations for your favorite program”

That is the honest state of the state of the ND football program.

 

[NDAFArly]

How about ND joins the Big 10 West?

Let’s just replace Wisconsin with ND this past season.

Keep in mind ND played the #1 or #2 SOS depending on the source.

But if they replaced UW:


Utah State
FAU
BYU
Northwestern
Nebraska
Purdue
Maryland
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota

That is one ranked opponent (final rankings) which was Northwestern (17) at home.

 

[NyyorkerND]

The “elite” schools also recruit nationally. Bama, OSU, etc go everywhere. They can because of winning. If ND wins 10-11 games every year they also can use winning & name recognition to nationally recruit.
OSU doesn’t play a national schedule but they get kids nationally. Same with Bama.

Yes the do but locally they have a tremendous recruiting advantage. Imagine if you can say every year we know well have x 4 star plus prospects in our backyard.

 

[twalsh]

“One of the keys to happiness in college football is understanding the realistic expectations for your favorite program”

That is the honest state of the state of the ND football program.

And of every other program. You think the Bama fans were happy from the late 70's to 2008? Even their blind squirrel finds a nut national championship in 1992 can't erase those 30 years of mediocrity, and the effect it had on the fan base.

 

[justified1]

And of every other program. You think the Bama fans were happy from the late 70's to 2008? Even their blind squirrel finds a nut national championship in 1992 can't erase those 30 years of mediocrity, and the effect it had on the fan base.

But this thinking is new to ND fans.

 

[NDAFArly]

Yes the do but locally they have a tremendous recruiting advantage. Imagine if you can say every year we know well have x 4 star plus prospects in our backyard.

Define backyard?

Alabama (the state) doesn’t produce elite talent. ND gets as more elite talent out of Chicago & Southern Michigan & northern Indiana (so its local backyard) as Bama gets from Alabama.
But when you talk backyard as in Georgia, Florida, etc. then you have to give ND Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc.
A lot of it is positional. This next cycle (2019) is loaded with Midwest Line talent.
ND should be able to get 3-5 OL & DL in the top 300 from the Midwest alone.

 

[NDSMC78]

He raised topics that many on the board have been bringing up for years as detriments to the program and to his credit he didn't dig into campus life which we all know is a drawback in comparison to other major programs. 30 years isn't a fluke, it's a trend.

A lot of the past 30 years can be summed up in three words. Davie. Willingham. Weis.

 

[NyyorkerND]

Define backyard?

Alabama (the state) doesn’t produce elite talent. ND gets as more elite talent out of Chicago & Southern Michigan & northern Indiana (so its local backyard) as Bama gets from Alabama.
But when you talk backyard as in Georgia, Florida, etc. then you have to give ND Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc.
A lot of it is positional. This next cycle (2019) is loaded with Midwest Line talent.
ND should be able to get 3-5 OL & DL in the top 300 from the Midwest alone.

Bama is the outlier bc they are on an unbelievable run but the state of Bama on it's own produces twice as many blue chippers than Indiana. Florida and Georgia produce 3 or 4 times as many blue chippers as Ohio and Penn and it's not even close.

 

[NDAFArly]

Bama is the outlier bc they are on an unbelievable run but the state of Bama on it's own produces twice as many blue chippers than Indiana. Florida and Georgia produce 3 or 4 times as many blue chippers as Ohio and Penn and it's not even close.

And ND competes with OSU & PSU for those blue chippers.

Bama competes with UGA, UF, FSU, Auburn, Miami, LSU, etc... for those blue chippers.

ND has to beat out 1 in state team. Bama has to fight off 5-6 teams.

 

[tbonesays]

I agree & disagree with that article.


You can schedule 10 wins. Ask Washington.

I agreed with everything you wrote until that last one. Washington isn't in the list of 50 worst schedulers. If scheduling one H-H with Rutgers is a gimme then what does that say about the conference that added them as annual opponent?

 

[NDAFArly]

I agreed with everything you wrote until that last one. Washington isn't in the list of 50 worst schedulers. If scheduling one H-H with Rutgers is a gimme then what does that say about the conference that added them as annual opponent?

The Big10 added them to try to get roots in New York. Many have been open about that being a mistake. But I’m not even sure what that has to do with anything?

As far as Washington, their OOC has been atrocious & even Peterson said when he took over he wanted to change that.
Last season they played 1 team who finished rank (and lost that game). OOC was Rutgers, Montana & Fresno.
And even their P5 opponent was among the worst P5 teams in the nation. They tried touting playing a Big10 school but even their own fan base called them out on it for scheduling Rutgers as their “big OOC game.”

 

[IRISHJD98]

Yes the do but locally they have a tremendous recruiting advantage. Imagine if you can say every year we know well have x 4 star plus prospects in our backyard.

There's also a higher density of FBS programs in most of the recruiting rich areas. It makes for more competition. Take Texas. Texas has 12 FBS programs, and the University of Oklahoma is as about close to Dallas as Texas A&M and Texas. Both Baylor and TCU are closer. A lot of competitive programs fishing in that pond.

 

[napy2121]

This is the harsh reality, some of you won't believe it, but it's the truth.

https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/02/08/mailbag-signing-day-rankings-notre-dame-nebraska

Counterpoint to OP:

https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/12-teams-can-win-national-title-2018/

 

[tbonesays]

The Big10 added them to try to get roots in New York. Many have been open about that being a mistake. But I’m not even sure what that has to do with anything?

As far as Washington, their OOC has been atrocious & even Peterson said when he took over he wanted to change that.
Last season they played 1 team who finished rank (and lost that game). OOC was Rutgers, Montana & Fresno.
And even their P5 opponent was among the worst P5 teams in the nation. They tried touting playing a Big10 school but even their own fan base called them out on it for scheduling Rutgers as their “big OOC game.”

I just love asking people "what was the SEC's 2nd best OOC win before the bowls?"

Spoiler

Fresno

 

[57Patrick]

Bama is the outlier bc they are on an unbelievable run but the state of Bama on it's own produces twice as many blue chippers than Indiana. Florida and Georgia produce 3 or 4 times as many blue chippers as Ohio and Penn and it's not even close.

That may or may not be true but I'm guessing tey don't produce many more recruits in the state of AL that have the education background that can get into ND.

 

[HillRock86]

I agree & disagree with that article.

I agree that averaging 10 wins a year like OSU, Bama, etc is not realistic for ND, but not for why he says.

Schedules determine why those teams have guaranteed 10 wins & ND doesn’t.

Those teams don’t leave their region (often times their state) the first month of the season. Then play their conference in region, mixed in a bad FCS opponent & a low level FBS team.
They play 2-3 games a year that are competitive.
This past season Bama won 10 FBS games & made the playoff. They played 3 ranked teams, (one that ND beat) & lost handidly to one of them.
ND played 7 ranked teams. Tied for most wins against top 25. ND played in Florida one week, then home against a triple option team, then out in California the next.
ND has never played a FCS team (1 of 3 schools who haven’t).

If ND had a schedule like the “elite” it would look like this:

Opening month don’t leave Indiana, except for maybe a “neutral” game in Chicago.

Ball State
Purdue
Indiana
Indiana State


Then start the “ACC schedule” of 5 games with a FCS game snuck in.

No more trips to California.
Navy immediately after playing FCS school who runs option.

Mix in MSU or UM every other 2 years.

So you start off 6 wins to inflate your ranking. Then get to 10 without much effort after mixing in the FCS game & Navy. Basically you play 3-4 games that are competitive & you probably are favored in all of them.

10-2 or 11-1 like clockwork depending on how the 1-2 “Big Ones” go each year.

You can schedule 10 wins. Ask Washington.

It's not that unrealistic. ND did it this year and in 2015. Look at 2014 when ND went 8-5. Had a realistic chance to beat FSU on the road. Lost two close games to Louisville and Northwestern at home, which they probably should not have lost. Give them those two home wins and you are 10-3. That would be three 10-win seasons in four years with 2016 as the outlier. ND was in the playoff hunt this year until Miami. Had a chance against Georgia and led in the fourth quarter against Stanford on the road. Could have had 12 wins this year. ND is not as far away as many think. Despite the academics, the location, lack of social life, etc. the Irish are on the doorstep. They can't cross the threshold. I believe their head coach is the reason. Good, but not good enough to get ND to the next level.

 

[zonairish]

It's not that unrealistic. ND did it this year and in 2015. Look at 2014 when ND went 8-5. Had a realistic chance to beat FSU on the road. Lost two close games to Louisville and Northwestern at home, which they probably should not have lost. Give them those two home wins and you are 10-3. That would be three 10-win seasons in four years with 2016 as the outlier. ND was in the playoff hunt this year until Miami. Had a chance against Georgia and led in the fourth quarter against Stanford on the road. Could have had 12 wins this year. ND is not as far away as many think. Despite the academics, the location, lack of social life, etc. the Irish are on the doorstep. They can't cross the threshold. I believe their head coach is the reason. Good, but not good enough to get ND to the next level.

Kelly has directed the team to a NC. The question can he do it again and win a big playoff game?

 

[chitown sot]

Kelly has directed the team to a NC. The question can he do it again and win a big playoff game?

Doubtful

 

[Zorich 88]

This is the harsh reality, some of you won't believe it, but it's the truth.

https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/02/08/mailbag-signing-day-rankings-notre-dame-nebraska

Notre Dame football all comes down to getting the right coach.

Kelly is a good coach. However, Kelly has peaked at ND. Meaning, it will not get any better than the past 8 years. Kelly has never won a big game at ND. Kelly does have some good wins, he does not however have one single program defining win.

Good wins:

Beating MSU on the road this season.

Program defining game:

The Georgia game.

Kelly puts a good not great team on the field. Wins at FSU and at Clemson would also be PROGRAM changing/defining games.

This post is not a knock on Kelly. I am just pointing out that after almost a decade of being the ND head football coach, Kelly has shown exactly what level of coach he is. Good not great

 

[chitown sot]

Notre Dame football all comes down to getting the right coach.

Kelly is a good coach. However, Kelly has peaked at ND. Meaning, it will not get any better than the past 8 years. Kelly has never won a big game at ND. Kelly does have some good wins, he does not however have one single program defining win.

Good wins:

Beating MSU on the road this season.

Program defining game:

The Georgia game.

Kelly puts a good not great team on the field. Wins at FSU and at Clemson would also be PROGRAM changing/defining games.

This post is not a knock on Kelly. I am just pointing out that after almost a decade of being the ND head football coach, Kelly has shown exactly what level of coach he is. Good not great

Exactly, that's why ND needs a change. He has gone as far as he can go. I will take my chances with another coach. This one is done

 

[irish4life888]

A lot of the past 30 years can be summed up in three words. Davie. Willingham. Weis.

Sure, that is part of it, but there are reasons that elite coaches don't want to come to ND, for a lot of the facts stated in the article. It's hard to come here under today's criteria and win. I'm not advocating changing it, but we are who we are.

 

[irish4life888]

Exactly, that's why ND needs a change. He has gone as far as he can go. I will take my chances with another coach. This one is done

I have no issue replacing Kelly as long as it's a good replacement. Urban Meyer passed on ND because he wanted to be able to get more athletes and ND would not bend on that. So you can get the best coach in the nation, but if they are ham-stringed then there is not much any coach can do.

 

[NyyorkerND]

I have no issue replacing Kelly as long as it's a good replacement. Urban Meyer passed on ND because he wanted to be able to get more athletes and ND would not bend on that. So you can get the best coach in the nation, but if they are ham-stringed then there is not much any coach can do.

This with the inclusion of other things stated in the article was exactly my point. Can we get lucky one year and run the table yes but to continuously do it I don't see it happening any more at ND.

 

[irish4life888]

This with the inclusion of other things stated in the article was exactly my point. Can we get lucky one year and run the table yes but to continuously do it I don't see it happening any more at ND.

I think we will have some years that we'll make it in the playoffs but unfortunately thats when we will see the difference between good and elite. There is a reason why we have only been to one NC in thirty years and got owned and It's not just bad luck and bad coaching.

 

[57Patrick]

Notre Dame football all comes down to getting the right coach.

Kelly is a good coach. However, Kelly has peaked at ND. Meaning, it will not get any better than the past 8 years. Kelly has never won a big game at ND. Kelly does have some good wins, he does not however have one single program defining win.

Good wins:

Beating MSU on the road this season.

Program defining game:

The Georgia game.

Kelly puts a good not great team on the field. Wins at FSU and at Clemson would also be PROGRAM changing/defining games.

This post is not a knock on Kelly. I am just pointing out that after almost a decade of being the ND head football coach, Kelly has shown exactly what level of coach he is. Good not great

I'm not sure Kelly has peaked yet. I think we will know a lot this year. 2016 was a disaster, but 2017 was one whale of a comeback year. It is difficult to define "program defining win". Had the Irish not collapsed against Miami and had finished the Stanford game (ND was winning late but tanked at the end), then the USC game could have been a Season Defining Game. To me a "Program Defining Game" is to win the national championship game. ND is already considered a top tier program now. To be elite (the next step), the Irish must be in the playoffs consistently. As far as the GA game is concerned, it would have been a great win, but if the Irish still lost to Miami the way they did and Stanford, it wouldn't have carried nearly as much weight IMHO. To me the disappointments are more for the BAD losses than missing out on big wins. I won't rehash all of them such as S. FL, NW, Navy, Tulsa and the way they were beaten by Miami.

 

[tbonesays]

I think we have it backwards. Why don't we get a very smart coach who knows things when to go for two and what defenses are realistic for college players. THEN if we reach the glass ceiling decide what institutional compromises are necessary to break it.

 

[francade]

“Sure, that is part of it, but there are reasons that elite coaches don't want to come to ND, for a lot of the facts stated in the article. It's hard to come here under today's criteria and win. I'm not advocating changing it, but we are who we-are”

It’s hard to believe there’s not one elite coach in the entire profession that wouldn’t want both the challenge of coaching & winning at ND along w/ the adoration they’d get if they did win it all for the Fighting Irish. Like I’ve said before, given the egos of a lot of them, you’d think one would embrace the challenge. This is not a knock on Kelly either. He was the hot name when we hired him. Can he finally get us over the hump? We’ll find out soon enough I guess. If he can’t, will an elite guy have the balls to take the job? Time will tell.

 

[spenna]

Exactly, that's why ND needs a change. He has gone as far as he can go. I will take my chances with another coach. This one is done

I agree

 

[DougsDad]

I agree we can change the schedule but your missing the point Farly. We go to those areas for recruiting purposes, with the exception of NY which is about money. So doing so hurts recruiting. Bama can schedule those games bc they already have the recruiting base locally which we do not.

Going to Miami at 80* when it's 32* in SB and getting spanked is probably not a bonus for recruiting. In today's world of communications actual presence is no longer required. All kids need and want to do is dial it up and see the score. Don't even know or care who you played. That's really hard for some to understand but times have changed and until ND gets a new AD who understands and wants to change nothing good will happen.

 

[echowaker]

“Sure, that is part of it, but there are reasons that elite coaches don't want to come to ND, for a lot of the facts stated in the article. It's hard to come here under today's criteria and win. I'm not advocating changing it, but we are who we-are”

It’s hard to believe there’s not one elite coach in the entire profession that wouldn’t want both the challenge of coaching & winning at ND along w/ the adoration they’d get if they did win it all for the Fighting Irish. Like I’ve said before, given the egos of a lot of them, you’d think one would embrace the challenge. This is not a knock on Kelly either. He was the hot name when we hired him. Can he finally get us over the hump? We’ll find out soon enough I guess. If he can’t, will an elite guy have the balls to take the job? Time will tell.

I think the last few coaching searches answered your question. other than urban meyer no high profile coach showed even passing interest in the job. egos aside why would they want to deal with the built in handicaps the job possesses ? they make comparable money pretty much anywhere. the tv contract with nbc is no longer the huge advantage it used to be. there is no great attraction to coaching at nd the way there used to be. that's the cold hard reality in my opinion. its still a top job, its just no longer THE job.

 

[TDIrish27]

Agreed