ND vs Cal

Patrirish

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You are completely right about Cal. It will be an easy, dominant win. Sadly those wins do not tell you much.
If it’s going to be so easy, why would Vegas adjust the line to 8.5 points when Buchner was ruled out ?
 

beachcardinal

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If it’s going to be so easy, why would Vegas adjust the line to 8.5 points when Buchner was ruled out ?
You’ve found Las Vegas spreads to be accurate regarding ND? Vegas judges betting sentiment, not team ability. ND, easy win.
 
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Patrirish

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You’ve found Las Vegas spreads to be accurate regarding ND? Vegas judges betting sentiment, not team ability. ND, easy win.
That’s absolutely incorrect.

Its obvious that you don’t know how Vegas sets the OPENING line.

Lines subsequent to the opening line are adjusted by the subsequent flow of money.

Vegas is not Kreskin or Tarnac in that they can’t read the mind of their betting customers, most of whom know very little about the teams they bet on.
 

beachcardinal

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That’s absolutely incorrect.

Its obvious that you don’t know how Vegas sets the OPENING line.

Lines subsequent to the opening line are adjusted by the subsequent flow of money.

Vegas is not Kreskin or Tarnac in that they can’t read the mind of their betting customers, most of whom know very little about the teams they bet on.
So you have found them accurate concerning Notre Dame. Strange decision, but it is up to you,
 

Patrirish

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So you have found them accurate concerning Notre Dame. Strange decision, but it is up to you,
I have an idea, today, why don’t you pick the point spread for all of ND’s remaining games, and on the morning of each game I’ll place my bet with you.

You pick the wager.

Vegas doesn’t build huge hotel/casinos, Vegas doesn’t send jets and limos to take you to Vegas and comp you your room, food and beverage because they don’t know what they’re doing, including setting the lines for football games, including ND.
 

Patrirish

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BeachCardinal,

This game doesnt look like an easy game to me.

Maybe Vegas knew what they were doing.

What do you think ?
 

Patrirish

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BeachCardinal,

So how does Vegas look now ?

Answer: like geniuses !

Vegas opened with an 8.5 point spread when Buchner went down.

Then money poured in on ND.

So they increased the spread and more money poured in on ND.

So they raised the spread again and more money poured in on ND

So they raised the spread again and more ND money poured in.

So they raised the spread again and more ND money poured in.

ND doesn’t cover and Vegas made a fortune on this game.

As I mentioned, the Vegas oddsmakers are highly skilled professionals and they know what they’re doing.
 

beachcardinal

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Yep. I was wrong. Cal is a terrible team but I never dreamed that ND would field a QB as bad as Payne. As to Vegas, how were they for ND's game against Marshall? How about the Texes A&m line. Texes against Alalbama, did they nail those?
 
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Patrirish

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Cal came so close to tying this game and possibly winning it if they go for two.

Not a great statement game, but a win is a win.

Congratulations
 

Patrirish

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Yep. I was wrong. Cal is a terrible team but I never dreamed that ND would field a QB as bad as Payne. As to Vegas, how were they for ND's game against Marshall? How about the Texes A&m line. Texes against Alalbama, did they nail those?
What you don’t understand is the “weight of the money”
ND betters got killed today !
Getting a point spread wrong doesn’t mean that Vegas lost money because it depends on the “weight of the money” rather than the score Relative to he spread.

I never said that Vegas was perfect, but they consistently win week in and week out.

I was troubled by Payne’s passing motion.
He was short arming the ball.
I’m hoping that it was first game jitters and not permanent..
He sure didn’t look good.

I sure don’t have a lot of confidence in their passing attack against UNC