ND got a good win over a P5 opponent who may not be at the top of their game but imo by the end of the year could look like a good win if Kentucky is able to develop their talented underclassmen. The first half ND looked like a legit contender in the ACC with their offense and ability to attack you at that end from all angles. The second half their lack of depth showed. I think its important to seperate the two to analyze the team to fully understand the offensive potential of this team and the weakness that is preventing them from being a great team. I think its very clear: starters are getting worn down and I dont think its a matter of them being too dependent on the 3 as much as they are getting exhausted to the point you cant expect them to get open off the dribble or off ball against fresher more athletic players that you see on the Kentucky's of the world. ND will see a better team that has much of the same in Duke. Im of the opinion that if you see the same team that you saw against Kentucky last saturday they will lose vs Duke this Wednesday by a margin of around 10-15 points.
Now if Wertz is eligble then I believe this is a much different story and it appears likely that he is ruled eligble. Im higher on Wertz than most but that is because I see him as a slightly less athletic version of Jerian Grant but arguably a better shooter (shot 40% from 3 last year) and I thought that before Wertz himself said as much when he said why he chose ND. He can do it all in my opinion. He can hunt his own shot, he can play off ball, he can take people off the dribble, he can be the primary ball handler, and he (like Jerian Grant excelled at) is great at passing to the open man off the drive and is going to be extremely tough to stop on pick and rolls due to his versatility and basketball IQ. He is going to be absolutely key to have off the bench and absolutely lethal when ND downshifts to a 4 guard offense and will create huge matchup problems. My reasoning is when you have Hubb, Ryan, and Wertz on the court, you can run your offense through any of those 3 guys and all 3 of them can be just as efficient off ball. Who are you going to put your ball stoppers on? (Some teams have one, good defensive teams have two, and very rare that you see a team with 3 legitmate ones). Which means Ryan and Wertz are going to get great matchups assuming Hubb draws the tougher ones and we saw Ryan have some good success off the drive against Kentucky which is a great sign. Then you add on the fact that you have 5 guys that can all shoot the 3 exceptionally well and spread the court (heck even Durham has shown he has the ability to extend the court a bit with his jump shot). Which means that driving lanes are going to be open for guys like Hubb, Ryan, Wertz, Goodwin, Laz, Sanders (when Carmody is healthy he could help here as well) to take it to the basket, which will eventually start forcing help defense which will eventually cause other people to be left wide open (Durham and Laz underneath or people spotting up for 3). Typically we are concerned about lack of size when ND downshifts that effects rebounding and defense but with Goodwin, Wertz, and Ryan all being about 6-5 these problems are alleiviated. I'm of the opinion that this team has the potential to have the best 4-1 offense Brey has ever put on the court at ND. Versatile guys like Wertz, Ryan, and Laz are going to make this lineup nearly impossible to guard when you add in how good Hubb is playing right now. I'm very excited to see it on the court. I know alot of people think he needs time to develop and adjust to the higher level of play in the ACC but outside of Hubb, he is the most experienced starter (granted I will say Goodwin was basically a starter with how many minutes he has played ) after 2 full years running a similar offense at Santa Clara and I believe he will be more ready than people expect.
Here is his highlight tape from his freshman year if you havent seen him play:
As for Duke, they are a better team but similar to Kentucky in a few ways that allows ND to matchup:
1. They are young and play alot of inexperienced freshmen.
2. They turn the ball over at a high rate with an average of 16 turnovers per game.
3. They have a lot of size across the board but no one they play consistently is taller than 6-9. This should allow ND to compete on the boards.
I would like to see what Brey did to mess with Kentucky on Saturday where you keep switching up the defensive looks to keep a young Duke team from getting too comfortable and cause them to make mistakes. However, I think Duke could get hot from 3 and make it hard for Brey to sit in a zone too much. Rebounding will also be interesting as Durham and Laz will need to use their height advantages and Hubb, Goodwin, Ryan, Wertz, etc... are going to do whatever they can to clean up the rest. At the end of the day though I think ND will win for 3 reasons:
1. The addition of Wertz for depth that will assist in additional offensive output and consistency.
2. Experience of Notre Dame and their hunger to get a huge ACC win over the youth of Duke.
3. Turnover differential making it hard for Duke to keep up.
Now if Wertz is eligble then I believe this is a much different story and it appears likely that he is ruled eligble. Im higher on Wertz than most but that is because I see him as a slightly less athletic version of Jerian Grant but arguably a better shooter (shot 40% from 3 last year) and I thought that before Wertz himself said as much when he said why he chose ND. He can do it all in my opinion. He can hunt his own shot, he can play off ball, he can take people off the dribble, he can be the primary ball handler, and he (like Jerian Grant excelled at) is great at passing to the open man off the drive and is going to be extremely tough to stop on pick and rolls due to his versatility and basketball IQ. He is going to be absolutely key to have off the bench and absolutely lethal when ND downshifts to a 4 guard offense and will create huge matchup problems. My reasoning is when you have Hubb, Ryan, and Wertz on the court, you can run your offense through any of those 3 guys and all 3 of them can be just as efficient off ball. Who are you going to put your ball stoppers on? (Some teams have one, good defensive teams have two, and very rare that you see a team with 3 legitmate ones). Which means Ryan and Wertz are going to get great matchups assuming Hubb draws the tougher ones and we saw Ryan have some good success off the drive against Kentucky which is a great sign. Then you add on the fact that you have 5 guys that can all shoot the 3 exceptionally well and spread the court (heck even Durham has shown he has the ability to extend the court a bit with his jump shot). Which means that driving lanes are going to be open for guys like Hubb, Ryan, Wertz, Goodwin, Laz, Sanders (when Carmody is healthy he could help here as well) to take it to the basket, which will eventually start forcing help defense which will eventually cause other people to be left wide open (Durham and Laz underneath or people spotting up for 3). Typically we are concerned about lack of size when ND downshifts that effects rebounding and defense but with Goodwin, Wertz, and Ryan all being about 6-5 these problems are alleiviated. I'm of the opinion that this team has the potential to have the best 4-1 offense Brey has ever put on the court at ND. Versatile guys like Wertz, Ryan, and Laz are going to make this lineup nearly impossible to guard when you add in how good Hubb is playing right now. I'm very excited to see it on the court. I know alot of people think he needs time to develop and adjust to the higher level of play in the ACC but outside of Hubb, he is the most experienced starter (granted I will say Goodwin was basically a starter with how many minutes he has played ) after 2 full years running a similar offense at Santa Clara and I believe he will be more ready than people expect.
Here is his highlight tape from his freshman year if you havent seen him play:
As for Duke, they are a better team but similar to Kentucky in a few ways that allows ND to matchup:
1. They are young and play alot of inexperienced freshmen.
2. They turn the ball over at a high rate with an average of 16 turnovers per game.
3. They have a lot of size across the board but no one they play consistently is taller than 6-9. This should allow ND to compete on the boards.
I would like to see what Brey did to mess with Kentucky on Saturday where you keep switching up the defensive looks to keep a young Duke team from getting too comfortable and cause them to make mistakes. However, I think Duke could get hot from 3 and make it hard for Brey to sit in a zone too much. Rebounding will also be interesting as Durham and Laz will need to use their height advantages and Hubb, Goodwin, Ryan, Wertz, etc... are going to do whatever they can to clean up the rest. At the end of the day though I think ND will win for 3 reasons:
1. The addition of Wertz for depth that will assist in additional offensive output and consistency.
2. Experience of Notre Dame and their hunger to get a huge ACC win over the youth of Duke.
3. Turnover differential making it hard for Duke to keep up.
