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JOK

edub72

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Jan 17, 2018
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Feel bad the kid fell out of the first round. Hopefully he makes some teams feel foolish who passed on him
 
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Feel bad the kid fell out of the first round. Hopefully he makes some teams feel foolish who passed on him
It's not based on ability, it's based on fit. His lack of a defined nfl role makes him a good fit for less teams. I'm sure fit is less an issue in the second round and he will go quickly
 
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I will be surprised if JOK doesn't go to JAX with the first pick in the second round. They have a really bad defense and need help just about everywhere. Most of the ESPN draft pundits thought they would go defense with their second pick of the first round, but instead they selected Etienne. It would be a pretty good draft for JAX if they got Lawrence Etienne, and then JOK.
 
It probably hurt that he didn't run 40, he needed to show a great 40 to off set his lack of size. Oweh did nothin in college but ran a 4.36. IF oweh runs over 4.5 he's drafted after round 3.
 
I feel bad for JOK only from the perspective of signing bonus and contract value. He’ll be a really productive player with the right team that utilizes his hard hitting athleticism and great instincts. The NFL draft gives a lot of weight to measurables, sometimes at the expense of valuing the so called immeasurables. I think teams passing on JOK may be making this mistake. My team, the Raiders are being roundly criticized for taking Leatherwood, the Outland trophy winner at #17, and perhaps they can compensate by taking JOK, the Butkus award winner in the second round.
 
I feel bad for JOK only from the perspective of signing bonus and contract value. He’ll be a really productive player with the right team that utilizes his hard hitting athleticism and great instincts. The NFL draft gives a lot of weight to measurables, sometimes at the expense of valuing the so called immeasurables. I think teams passing on JOK may be making this mistake. My team, the Raiders are being roundly criticized for taking Leatherwood, the Outland trophy winner at #17, and perhaps they can compensate by taking JOK, the Butkus award winner in the second round.

Agree with your assessment of JOK, Telx1, but I think there is absolutely no way that JOK lasts until the Raiders pick in Round 2. But it is always nice to be hopeful!

I was a little bit surprised at how many guys that went in the first round last night had chosen to sit out the season before due to COVID risks. Seems to me the NFL teams are taking a risk with those guys.
 
Agree with your assessment of JOK, Telx1, but I think there is absolutely no way that JOK lasts until the Raiders pick in Round 2. But it is always nice to be hopeful!

I was a little bit surprised at how many guys that went in the first round last night had chosen to sit out the season before due to COVID risks. Seems to me the NFL teams are taking a risk with those guys.
A lot of them are really good players
 
A lot of them are really good players

I assume the teams that selected those players all thought they were getting a really good player, or they wouldn't have taken him. I just think there is risk in taking a guy who sat out a year. Micah Parsons, for example, has great size and measurables, but is rough around the edges, and might have been helped his game by playing last year. He got drafted at No. 12, so sitting out apparently didn't hurt his draft stock, but we'll see how quickly he grabs the nuances of playing in the NFL. Maybe he will turn out to be a great player, but I guess we will see. I am not being critical of a player who chose to sit the season out; the point I was making is that teams were taking more risk with those players who sat out, not that they aren't talented.
 
How about Saban -- six of his players go in round one. Hard to compete with a top HS recruit with a guy who is sending 4-6 guys to the pros with round one contracts and bonuses every year. Nick should just take the Tide pro!

Have to say, yesterday was a little depressing for this Irish fan... How do we ever catch up with that kind of juggernaut?
 
How about Saban -- six of his players go in round one. Hard to compete with a top HS recruit with a guy who is sending 4-6 guys to the pros with round one contracts and bonuses every year. Nick should just take the Tide pro!

Have to say, yesterday was a little depressing for this Irish fan... How do we ever catch up with that kind of juggernaut?
....not to mention trying to keep up with Northwestern with two first round picks.....
 
Not so worried about NW, but after winning 33 games and getting to the playoffs twice in the last 3 years ND has had 1 PLAYER GO IN ROUND ONE. During that time:

Bama = 13
Clemson = 7
LSU = 7
OSU = 6
Oklahoma = 4
ND = 1 (Tillery)

I really don't blame Kelly. South Bend is South Bend and we do expect our players to attend real classes... But college football has changed so much -- schools like Bama and LSU and OSU are semi-pro teams, not really college teams...

It is impressive what Kelly has done with the talent he's gotten. I believe he would have had Pete-Like success if he went to USC ten years ago, rather than ND.

I'm glad we have him.
 
It probably hurt that he didn't run 40, he needed to show a great 40 to off set his lack of size. Oweh did nothin in college but ran a 4.36. IF oweh runs over 4.5 he's drafted after round 3.
Yeah, maybe, but who really knows? At this time of year, we should always remind ourselves that there are a lot of NFL teams who pay millions of dollars to people in front offices that are terrible at their jobs. As usual, there were several reaches in this year's first round, and I don't say that subjectively. There are still several teams that don't understand that if you really, really want someone who has a 2nd round or later grade it's still OK to at least wait to get that guy in a later round or trade down and take him late in the 1st round to get the most added value.

The Raiders in particular have been bad at this concept since Gruden and Mayock took over (and I always liked Mayock as a talent evaluator when he was on TV).
 
I assume the teams that selected those players all thought they were getting a really good player, or they wouldn't have taken him. I just think there is risk in taking a guy who sat out a year. Micah Parsons, for example, has great size and measurables, but is rough around the edges, and might have been helped his game by playing last year. He got drafted at No. 12, so sitting out apparently didn't hurt his draft stock, but we'll see how quickly he grabs the nuances of playing in the NFL. Maybe he will turn out to be a great player, but I guess we will see. I am not being critical of a player who chose to sit the season out; the point I was making is that teams were taking more risk with those players who sat out, not that they aren't talented.
I read a few times that he had off field issues but they weren't specified. No doubting his talent
 
Yeah, maybe, but who really knows? At this time of year, we should always remind ourselves that there are a lot of NFL teams who pay millions of dollars to people in front offices that are terrible at their jobs. As usual, there were several reaches in this year's first round, and I don't say that subjectively. There are still several teams that don't understand that if you really, really want someone who has a 2nd round or later grade it's still OK to at least wait to get that guy in a later round or trade down and take him late in the 1st round to get the most added value.

The Raiders in particular have been bad at this concept since Gruden and Mayock took over (and I always liked Mayock as a talent evaluator when he was on TV).
Who determines a reach ? Kiper and McShay ?
 
I assume the teams that selected those players all thought they were getting a really good player, or they wouldn't have taken him. I just think there is risk in taking a guy who sat out a year. Micah Parsons, for example, has great size and measurables, but is rough around the edges, and might have been helped his game by playing last year. He got drafted at No. 12, so sitting out apparently didn't hurt his draft stock, but we'll see how quickly he grabs the nuances of playing in the NFL. Maybe he will turn out to be a great player, but I guess we will see. I am not being critical of a player who chose to sit the season out; the point I was making is that teams were taking more risk with those players who sat out, not that they aren't talented.
Parsons won the Butkus in 2019. He'll be fine with 1 year out
 
Who determines a reach ? Kiper and McShay ?
Historical results mostly. But do you think Kiper and McShay are the only draft analysts out there?

The Raiders reached with Clelin Ferrell in 2019 and Damon Arnette last year. Neither has been very productive as yet, certainly not as productive as 1st round picks should be. That could change, of course, but the really dumb thing the Raiders did was draft those guys where they did rather than waiting 1 more round to get them when they were likely to still be there. And even if they didn't want to risk missing out on those guys, they should have at least traded down in the draft to get more value for them - i.e., they could have gotten the player they wanted plus additional draft pick(s). Leatherwood might turn out to be a very good pick but they almost certainly could have traded down and still gotten him.

The Bears overreached in 2017 when they traded their #3 overall pick, their 3rd-round 2017 and 2018 picks, and their 4th round pick just to move up 1 whole spot to get Trubisky. Some might say that is OK to do if you really think he's your guy at QB and don't want to risk missing out, but that was just very dumb reasoning that year for two reasons - there were several very good QB prospects to choose from in that class which any team needing a QB should have been very happy with, and there were no perceived generational talents that they might have missed out on (obviously Mahomes became one). If Trubisky had been considered a can't-miss generational talent in the mold of Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck then maybe the move would have been justified, but Trubisky was never considered to be in that mold. Most draft observers at the time thought the Bears gave up too much, especially considering there was a good chance Mitch would still be there at pick 3, and even if he wasn't, they should have been very happy to take Watson or Mahomes.

There have been many other famous overreaches - The Chargers gave up the world to draft Ryan Leaf. Ditka gave up the world to draft Ricky Williams. Even if both franchises thought they were getting HoF players, you can't risk giving up the world for them.

And then there are just the general overreaches. Teams often reach for RBs in the first round when the data shows high-quality RBs can be found in the later rounds. Obviously, there are sometimes generational talents like Saquon Barkley or Zeke that deserve 1st round picks but those are rare.

"Can't-miss" 1st round-worthy WR prospects are a little more common than can't-miss RB prospects, but after you get past those 2-3 prospects each year the data shows high-quality WRs can be found in the later rounds and it's better to just wait or trade down when appropriate. Many teams still haven't figured that out despite the data.

Do you think there are no bad front offices; that they never make mistakes that can be criticized in real-time and they all deserve their paychecks?
 
It is astonishing to me how many bad draft picks are made in the NFL draft every year. To be fair, many of those assessments are made with the benefit of hindsight, but when an average fan can smell out a bad pick, that doesn't speak well of the GM and front office. I am a lifelong Bears fan, and the Trubisky pick back in 2017 was a complete head scratcher to most of the fanbase. Picking Trubisky with the No. 3 pick would have been bad enough in itself, but getting snookered by the 49ers to trade valuable draft picks to move up a spot to take a guy that nobody else probably even considered in the top 10 added insult to injury. I can't tell you that I thought Mahomes would become what he is now, but I think most Bears fans wanted Watson. He was a much safer pick, and his play in the NFL has proven that he was the better pick. (Of course, I expect Watson will be suspended for at least a year for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy, so maybe the Bears got lucky.)

I am also surprised how many GMs ignore the red flags of character issues with draftees, and take players solely based upon measurables, thinking the character issues will just disappear. Often they get burned on those choices. Belichick always chose character over potential. (Maybe the AB flirtation was an exception to that.) Worked out pretty well for the Patriots.
 
Historical results mostly. But do you think Kiper and McShay are the only draft analysts out there?

The Raiders reached with Clelin Ferrell in 2019 and Damon Arnette last year. Neither has been very productive as yet, certainly not as productive as 1st round picks should be. That could change, of course, but the really dumb thing the Raiders did was draft those guys where they did rather than waiting 1 more round to get them when they were likely to still be there. And even if they didn't want to risk missing out on those guys, they should have at least traded down in the draft to get more value for them - i.e., they could have gotten the player they wanted plus additional draft pick(s). Leatherwood might turn out to be a very good pick but they almost certainly could have traded down and still gotten him.

The Bears overreached in 2017 when they traded their #3 overall pick, their 3rd-round 2017 and 2018 picks, and their 4th round pick just to move up 1 whole spot to get Trubisky. Some might say that is OK to do if you really think he's your guy at QB and don't want to risk missing out, but that was just very dumb reasoning that year for two reasons - there were several very good QB prospects to choose from in that class which any team needing a QB should have been very happy with, and there were no perceived generational talents that they might have missed out on (obviously Mahomes became one). If Trubisky had been considered a can't-miss generational talent in the mold of Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck then maybe the move would have been justified, but Trubisky was never considered to be in that mold. Most draft observers at the time thought the Bears gave up too much, especially considering there was a good chance Mitch would still be there at pick 3, and even if he wasn't, they should have been very happy to take Watson or Mahomes.

There have been many other famous overreaches - The Chargers gave up the world to draft Ryan Leaf. Ditka gave up the world to draft Ricky Williams. Even if both franchises thought they were getting HoF players, you can't risk giving up the world for them.

And then there are just the general overreaches. Teams often reach for RBs in the first round when the data shows high-quality RBs can be found in the later rounds. Obviously, there are sometimes generational talents like Saquon Barkley or Zeke that deserve 1st round picks but those are rare.

"Can't-miss" 1st round-worthy WR prospects are a little more common than can't-miss RB prospects, but after you get past those 2-3 prospects each year the data shows high-quality WRs can be found in the later rounds and it's better to just wait or trade down when appropriate. Many teams still haven't figured that out despite the data.

Do you think there are no bad front offices; that they never make mistakes that can be criticized in real-time and they all deserve their paychecks?
They're only a reach if they don't pan out. Hindsighting is a pet peeve of mine. Never hear an analyst say they were wrong when their perceived "reach" is a good player. Then its crickets.
 
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Historical results mostly. But do you think Kiper and McShay are the only draft analysts out there?

The Raiders reached with Clelin Ferrell in 2019 and Damon Arnette last year. Neither has been very productive as yet, certainly not as productive as 1st round picks should be. That could change, of course, but the really dumb thing the Raiders did was draft those guys where they did rather than waiting 1 more round to get them when they were likely to still be there. And even if they didn't want to risk missing out on those guys, they should have at least traded down in the draft to get more value for them - i.e., they could have gotten the player they wanted plus additional draft pick(s). Leatherwood might turn out to be a very good pick but they almost certainly could have traded down and still gotten him.

The Bears overreached in 2017 when they traded their #3 overall pick, their 3rd-round 2017 and 2018 picks, and their 4th round pick just to move up 1 whole spot to get Trubisky. Some might say that is OK to do if you really think he's your guy at QB and don't want to risk missing out, but that was just very dumb reasoning that year for two reasons - there were several very good QB prospects to choose from in that class which any team needing a QB should have been very happy with, and there were no perceived generational talents that they might have missed out on (obviously Mahomes became one). If Trubisky had been considered a can't-miss generational talent in the mold of Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck then maybe the move would have been justified, but Trubisky was never considered to be in that mold. Most draft observers at the time thought the Bears gave up too much, especially considering there was a good chance Mitch would still be there at pick 3, and even if he wasn't, they should have been very happy to take Watson or Mahomes.

There have been many other famous overreaches - The Chargers gave up the world to draft Ryan Leaf. Ditka gave up the world to draft Ricky Williams. Even if both franchises thought they were getting HoF players, you can't risk giving up the world for them.

And then there are just the general overreaches. Teams often reach for RBs in the first round when the data shows high-quality RBs can be found in the later rounds. Obviously, there are sometimes generational talents like Saquon Barkley or Zeke that deserve 1st round picks but those are rare.

"Can't-miss" 1st round-worthy WR prospects are a little more common than can't-miss RB prospects, but after you get past those 2-3 prospects each year the data shows high-quality WRs can be found in the later rounds and it's better to just wait or trade down when appropriate. Many teams still haven't figured that out despite the data.

Do you think there are no bad front offices; that they never make mistakes that can be criticized in real-time and they all deserve their paychecks?
My point is its generally all a crapshoot. You take all the information available and make your best choice based on what fits your organization best. It's an inexact science for sure. No one is deliberately trying to whiff. No one bats a thousand. Guess you are or were perfect in your chosen profession.
 
My point is its generally all a crapshoot. You take all the information available and make your best choice based on what fits your organization best. It's an inexact science for sure. No one is deliberately trying to whiff. No one bats a thousand. Guess you are or were perfect in your chosen profession.
Raiders and now with mayock are failing far too often
 
My point is its generally all a crapshoot. You take all the information available and make your best choice based on what fits your organization best. It's an inexact science for sure. No one is deliberately trying to whiff. No one bats a thousand. Guess you are or were perfect in your chosen profession.

No exact way to quantify how these guys are going to react when :

A. They aren't the biggest , strongest , toughest guy on the block anymore

B. They get money------a lot of it-----some lose the hunger.
 
My point is its generally all a crapshoot. You take all the information available and make your best choice based on what fits your organization best. It's an inexact science for sure. No one is deliberately trying to whiff. No one bats a thousand. Guess you are or were perfect in your chosen profession.
The problem here is, for the most part, "value" is not a crapshoot. If you treat the draft as if it is a crapshoot, in the long run, you will likely have poor results.

If you take a guy in the first round that is generally considered a 2nd round or worse guy, or you give up too much just to get one guy, that isn't hindsighting. It's easy to see in real-time. Sure, it's an inexact science but it's not hard to figure out that if you take a guy in the first round that is highly likely to be there in the 2nd without trading down, you overreached. The worst-case scenario if you wait is you take a high-value draft pick in the first round and then it comes back to you in the 2nd round and your guy is no longer there. Then what do you do? You take the best value given the need/fit at that spot and you still feel very good about your 1st two picks. Best, and frequently the most likely scenario is you end up with a high-quality 1st round guy and the guy you wanted in the 2nd round. A lot of front offices don't get that and that's why many of them struggle.

And why the swipe at the end? Did I claim to be perfect or claim that it's possible for front offices to be perfect? Some are better than others and there is a reason for that that goes beyond it being a "crapshoot."
 
JOK is perceived as a player without a position. Not a strong safety and perhaps a LB who might get swallowed up when teams line up in 12 or 21 personnel. Those offenses on completely extinct now in college football. So, you don't get to see guys in those situations. Just like in the I-Formation & Triple Option days, you never really got to see those big LB's with the neck rolls, flip their hips and play pass defense.
 
Antonio Brown
Yes, that is who I was referring to. His talent on the field is undeniable. So is his work ethic. Off the field he is a complete head case, and unfortunately he let his ego interfere with how he played during the end of his tenure with the Steelers. After all that turmoil, I imagine the Steelers are very happy with Chase.
 
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Yes, that is who I was referring to. His talent on the field is undeniable. So is his work ethic. Off the field he is a complete head case, and unfortunately he let his ego interfere with how he played during the end of his tenure with the Steelers. After all that turmoil, I imagine the Steelers are very happy with Chase.

The NFL evaluation is a bad joke. They slice n dice n there selections in rounds one n two are not high success.

JOK should go to Patriots or Jacksonville where he will show these ads clowns to be fools
 
The NFL evaluation is a bad joke. They slice n dice n there selections in rounds one n two are not high success.

JOK should go to Patriots or Jacksonville where he will show these ads clowns to be fools
Jax passed on JOK twice already in round 2
 
Parsons won the Butkus- Fitzgerald LB of the year in 2019. Simmons won the Butkus.

Either way, hes really good and 1 year off he'll be fibe
Parsons is also character concern of the highest level and team cancer.
 
JOK to what has become a loaded CLE defense with a DC who runs a perfect system for him.
 
“...one of the best picks in the draft so far”
 
someone posted on another board that a certain reporter was hearing that medical issue were a reason that JOK was falling in the draft
 
No, no, no, no,no. My beloved Steeler stubborn ess lost JOK. The Steelers need help at safety and linebacker, in which, JOK could do both and he goes to Cleveland. Then they choose the kid from PSU as a tight instead of Long or Tremble if Mayer was not all world than Tremble might be early second round. What are you thinking Steeler people. How did the browns get so smart all of sudden.
 
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