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ESPN Matchup Predictions - 2021 Season

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deadmanramsey

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Jun 12, 2005
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They just recently made their calculated predictions which I think are largely based on their FPI ratings. Definitely some surprises, both good and bad. They have us winning every game, although some of them more closely than I would think. Virginia Tech is considered the most challenging opponent. Overall, we are pretty substantial favorites, as none of the games have a less than 60% of winning, which is encouraging.

Here is the game-by-game breakdown indicating our chances of victory:

FSU - 71.9%
TOL - 90.2%
PUR - 85.9%
WIS - 61.4%
CIN - 73.2%
VT - 61.0%
USC - 78.7%
UNC - 65.3%
NAVY - 96.7%
UVA - 66.6%
GT - 88.6%
STAN - 72.5%

Chances of going undefeated - 3.2%
 
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Surprises indeed! FSU seems like the biggest outlier on the pessimistic side, and USC seems really skewed in our favor. I wonder if their FPI system is just really off this preseason since it had so much less data to draw on last year?

Thanks for posting.
 
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Juniper_Run said:
Surprises indeed! FSU seems like the biggest outlier on the pessimistic side, and USC seems really skewed in our favor. I wonder if their FPI system is just really off this preseason since it had so much less data to draw on last year?

Thanks for posting.
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I dont really see a surprise on there. Maybe VT
 
Golson5 said:
I dont really see a surprise on there. Maybe VT
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I was surprised that our chances aren't higher vs FSU. They have been on a miserable run, although playing them on the road in Primetime will have them stoked and bringing their A-game. And then having Navy as by far our easiest opponent struck me as odd, given how we sometimes struggle with them. I expect USC to be a tougher battle...maybe even the toughest game on the schedule. Also, I remember when we were slated to play Wisconsin last season, we were pretty significant underdogs, so I'm not entirely sure what changed their mind so drastically this season when a lot of experts consider this year's team to take a bit of a step back with so many key personnel losses.

It'll be interesting to see how these predictions change throughout the year.
 
deadmanramsey said:
I was surprised that our chances aren't higher vs FSU. They have been on a miserable run, although playing them on the road in Primetime will have them stoked and bringing their A-game. And then having Navy as by far our easiest opponent struck me as odd, given how we sometimes struggle with them. I expect USC to be a tougher battle...maybe even the toughest game on the schedule. Also, I remember when we were slated to play Wisconsin last season, we were pretty significant underdogs, so I'm not entirely sure what changed their mind so drastically this season when a lot of experts consider this year's team to take a bit of a step back with so many key personnel losses.

It'll be interesting to see how these predictions change throughout the year.
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I think it's just people hedging their bets since its the first game of the year.
 
Cinci, VT and UNC are a surprise to me.

Cincinnati I would think is lower % as a top team as is UNC that returns their QB who was excellent.

VT I didn’t think would be that close.
 
I don't care how they get there, just get to 12-0. ND owns the ACC now except for Clemson and we need revenge against FSU. Yes we replaced a lot of parts from last year's team but that's football. GO IRISH and kick some butt in '21.
 
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I get the math that gets you to 3.2% chance of undefeated season, but I don’t think it holds in college football. Fact is ND is favored in every game. Based on that, I would say > 50% chance of undefeated season.
 
deadmanramsey said:
I was surprised that our chances aren't higher vs FSU. They have been on a miserable run, although playing them on the road in Primetime will have them stoked and bringing their A-game. And then having Navy as by far our easiest opponent struck me as odd, given how we sometimes struggle with them. I expect USC to be a tougher battle...maybe even the toughest game on the schedule. Also, I remember when we were slated to play Wisconsin last season, we were pretty significant underdogs, so I'm not entirely sure what changed their mind so drastically this season when a lot of experts consider this year's team to take a bit of a step back with so many key personnel losses.

It'll be interesting to see how these predictions change throughout the year.
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I think the odds-makers don't care about history but ESPN might. We have ND playing on the road in Florida, first game of the season coached by Brian Kelly. Those aren't favorable factors.
 
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tbonesays said:
I think the odds-makers don't care about history but ESPN might. We have ND playing on the road in Florida, first game of the season coached by Brian Kelly. Those aren't favorable factors.
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32 straight vs unranked. I like what Kelly has done.

We're coached by one of the best coaches in the country. Advantage us
 
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tbonesays said:
I think the odds-makers don't care about history but ESPN might. We have ND playing on the road in Florida, first game of the season coached by Brian Kelly. Those aren't favorable factors.
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What are you trying to say? Is that a shot at BK?
 
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It's a well established pattern. We don't play well in Florida and BK's team can come out flat at any given time.
 
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When I say flat it's not based on the final score but instead I look to the body language on the sidelines. There are plenty of games where the team looked like they would rather be somewhere else.
 
tbonesays said:
When I say flat it's not based on the final score but instead I look to the body language on the sidelines. There are plenty of games where the team looked like they would rather be somewhere else.
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Cmon. You can’t quantify “body language on the sidelines”. How do you measure good body language vs bad body language? Number of high fives?

This team handles business and basically beats everyone they should beat.
 
tbonesays said:
When I say flat it's not based on the final score but instead I look to the body language on the sidelines. There are plenty of games where the team looked like they would rather be somewhere else.
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So the same as every team. Okay
 
IrishMike409 said:
Cmon. You can’t quantify “body language on the sidelines”. How do you measure good body language vs bad body language? Number of high fives?

This team handles business and basically beats everyone they should beat.
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I never said I was quantifying it but I know BK can drop it at any time.
 
Golson5 said:
32 straight vs unranked. I like what Kelly has done.

We're coached by one of the best coaches in the country. Advantage us
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That's nice. Too bad we don't compete well against ranked teams. We are 3-8 against top ten teams and 5 of those we had our doors blown off. Not to mention getting beat by 28 points in our last NC. We haven't even been close to competing in the playoffs. Alabama even embarrassed us last time and let off the gas because they knew our offense was not scoring and they were saving themselves for the NC.

Sure we beat a defensively depleted Clemson at home without their Heisman qb and it did mark Kelly's first win over a top five team so he's now 1-5 against teams ranked in the top five.

Kelly's a good coach. One of the best in the country? Debatable.
 
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irish4life9999 said:
That's nice. Too bad we don't compete well against ranked teams. We are 3-8 against top ten teams and 5 of those we had our doors blown off. Not to mention getting beat by 28 points in our last NC. We haven't even been close to competing in the playoffs. Alabama even embarrassed us last time and let off the gas because they knew our offense was not scoring and they were saving themselves for the NC.

Sure we beat a defensively depleted Clemson at home without their Heisman qb and it did mark Kelly's first win over a top five team so he's now 1-5 against teams ranked in the top five.

Kelly's a good coach. One of the best in the country? Debatable.
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He was talking about beating FSU. Are they one of the elites in cfb?

You just couldn't help yourself. Hadto attempt a troll.

Its not debatable. Cant put him any lower than 10 if you have any credibility at all
 
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irish4life9999 said:
That's nice. Too bad we don't compete well against ranked teams. We are 3-8 against top ten teams and 5 of those we had our doors blown off. Not to mention getting beat by 28 points in our last NC. We haven't even been close to competing in the playoffs. Alabama even embarrassed us last time and let off the gas because they knew our offense was not scoring and they were saving themselves for the NC.

Sure we beat a defensively depleted Clemson at home without their Heisman qb and it did mark Kelly's first win over a top five team so he's now 1-5 against teams ranked in the top five.

Kelly's a good coach. One of the best in the country? Debatable.
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You’re clearly trolling and looking for every possible angle to be negative. Pretty pathetic.
 
W8LNXYR said:
I get the math that gets you to 3.2% chance of undefeated season, but I don’t think it holds in college football. Fact is ND is favored in every game. Based on that, I would say > 50% chance of undefeated season.
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Your first two statements are contradictory. If you get the math then it should make sense that being favored in every game does NOT necessarily mean there is a > 50% chance to go undefeated.

According to the math, if a team has a 90% chance to win they will beat that team 9 out of 10 times. The extreme likelihood is they will beat that team on the day they face them as well as any other team they have a 90% chance to beat. However, if they play 10 such games in one season the math says they are supposed to lose one of those games which means they are highly unlikely to go undefeated. And that's just the scenario where we are 90% favorites against all opponents. Obviously, those odds get worse once you include games where we are only 60% or 70% favorites. This is why the same FPI predicts ND's record will be somewhere around 8-4 this year even though they have us as favorites in every singular game.

Having said that, whatever metrics ESPN puts into their FPI suck. Their FPI has always been ridiculous, so I think we will do much better than they think we will. Maybe we won't go undefeated but I don't see us losing more than 2 games.
 
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IrishMike409 said:
You’re clearly trolling and looking for every possible angle to be negative. Pretty pathetic.
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Golson has been obsessed with me here lately. He's been calling me out telling me I make stuff up. He's making Kelly out to be one of the best coaches at ND ever. Sorry if the facts upset the Homer's feelings.
 
Golson5 said:
He was talking about beating FSU. Are they one of the elites in cfb?

You just couldn't help yourself. Hadto attempt a troll.

Its not debatable. Cant put him any lower than 10 if you have any credibility at all
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In the process you were trying to pimp Kelly as one of the best coaches ever. Sorry if the facts trigger your fragile feelings.
 
Bumpdaddy said:
Your first two statements are contradictory. If you get the math then it should make sense that being favored in every game does NOT necessarily mean there is a > 50% chance to go undefeated.

According to the math, if a team has a 90% chance to win they will beat that team 9 out of 10 times. The extreme likelihood is they will beat that team on the day they face them as well as any other team they have a 90% chance to beat. However, if they play 10 such games in one season the math says they are supposed to lose one of those games which means they are highly unlikely to go undefeated. And that's just the scenario where we are 90% favorites against all opponents. Obviously, those odds get worse once you include games where we are only 60% or 70% favorites. This is why the same FPI predicts ND's record will be somewhere around 8-4 this year even though they have us as favorites in every singular game.

Having said that, whatever metrics ESPN puts into their FPI suck. Their FPI has always been ridiculous, so I think we will do much better than they think we will. Maybe we won't go undefeated but I don't see us losing more than 2 games.
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Exactly. It's bad math to suggest a team with say a 51% chance to win every game individually has a 51% chance to win them all. No, such a team would very likely go 6-6.
 
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Just for fun, and because I'm obsessed with stats, and because I have too much time apparently, I went ahead and simulated 20 seasons based on the expected win percentages using Excel. The average record was 9.5-2.5

There were surprisingly two undefeated seasons, which is pretty optimistic (10%). The worst season turned out to be 7-5, which occurred twice. You can see the breakdown below.

2021-ND.jpg
 
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“ Alabama even embarrassed us last time and let off the gas because they knew our offense was not scoring and they were saving themselves for the NC.”

Anyone that thinks this wasn’t watching. We lost the game in a few of our first 3-4 possessions when we marched down the field somewhat easily and had a td wiped out because of a penalty and had a missed fg. I’d argue we narrowly outplayed them in the 2nd half. The idea they took the pedal off the gas is made up BS. We seemed to figure out they were screening us to death in the first half so they had a more difficult time moving the ball in the 2nd half. Bama deserved the win no doubt, but it should’ve been a closer score, imo.
 
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francade said:
“ Alabama even embarrassed us last time and let off the gas because they knew our offense was not scoring and they were saving themselves for the NC.”

Anyone that thinks this wasn’t watching. We lost the game in a few of our first 3-4 possessions when we marched down the field somewhat easily and had a td wiped out because of a penalty and had a missed fg. I’d argue we narrowly outplayed them in the 2nd half. The idea they took the pedal off the gas is made up BS. We seemed to figure out they were screening us to death in the first half so they had a more difficult time moving the ball in the 2nd half. Bama deserved the win no doubt, but it should’ve been a closer score, imo.
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Are you serious? Ya go watch the game again. Saban let off gas knowing we were not a serious scoring threat. They were playing quite a few backups in the second half. I'm not the only one saying this. Most experts said the same thing.
 
“Are you serious? Ya go watch the game again. Saban let off gas knowing we were not a serious scoring threat. They were playing quite a few backups in the second half. I'm not the only one saying this. Most experts said the same thing.”

I disagree w/ you and “most experts” then I guess.
 
francade said:
“ Alabama even embarrassed us last time and let off the gas because they knew our offense was not scoring and they were saving themselves for the NC.”

Anyone that thinks this wasn’t watching. We lost the game in a few of our first 3-4 possessions when we marched down the field somewhat easily and had a td wiped out because of a penalty and had a missed fg. I’d argue we narrowly outplayed them in the 2nd half. The idea they took the pedal off the gas is made up BS. We seemed to figure out they were screening us to death in the first half so they had a more difficult time moving the ball in the 2nd half. Bama deserved the win no doubt, but it should’ve been a closer score, imo.
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Spot on. They played Bama tough as hell.
 
deadmanramsey said:
Just for fun, and because I'm obsessed with stats, and because I have too much time apparently, I went ahead and simulated 20 seasons based on the expected win percentages using Excel. The average record was 9.5-2.5

There were surprisingly two undefeated seasons, which is pretty optimistic (10%). The worst season turned out to be 7-5, which occurred twice. You can see the breakdown below.

2021-ND.jpg
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Appreciate you doing that and sharing the data.

I have to say: I’ll be disappointed with 10 wins, and absolutely bummed out with 9.

This team should win 11, and is an absolute threat to go 12-0. Schedule is challenging, but certainly not impossible. There is no @Clemson or @tOSU.
 
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Weird FPI numbers from ESPN. From last year's results USC and UNC both far superior teams to Va. Tech. Forget FSU. At least you get them both in South Bend. Hard to see the Irish winning both of them. But Kelly doing a good job.
 
There is a lot of turnover on the offensive side. You cannot discount that fact. No one, not even the coaches, know how the offense will perform until they are actually in a real game. The defense has plenty of playmakers. How will they perform in a new system under a new coordinator ? I think it will take some time for the team to really gel. Looking at the schedule, I do not see any "gimmies". I think they are going to have work hard and play as error free as possible to have a very good year. I know, "mr. doom and gloom". In this case that is not true. There are too many new faces to make a determination one way or the other. I do think if they can keep the penalties and turnovers to a minimum, they can have a great year. Just have to see how it goes.
 
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