Did Savvy Jack Just Signal ND to the BUG 10?
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Penn State won 2 NCs in the 80s and was a national team and title contender.
They are now a regional school and no longer a NC contender
The article said $80 million to $100 million for each Big 10 Team. Not necessarily $100 million per se. Now, that the Big Ten deal has been negotiated (?) what is the ACTUAL NUMBER? Is that figure known? Because, to me, IT'S GERMANE.
I agree with your reasoning that taking a 25% haircut is a good negotiating tactic even as it becomes as such -- AND QUITE LITERALLY -- the PRICE ND is willing to pay to REMAIN INDEPENDENT.
But is it TOO STEEP a price? I don't know as I have no idea what AMOUNTS ARE NEEDED for a team to STAY COMPETITIVE. If ND is getting $75 million a year to do things the way IT DOES vs. perhaps the $100 million that goes to OSU to do things the way IT DOES, is that IN FACT a level playing field?
Without seeing numbers and expense categories, I have no way of knowing. But someone, I'm sure, has an OPINION, founded or unfounded. Or maybe someone understands COLLEGE SPORTS ECONOMICS.
I know numbers and accounting, but I DON'T KNOW THAT BUSINESS.
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Swarbrick -- in a STUNNINGLY LUCID, well-played interview -- said three things would determine conference membership or not:
1) TV money
2) Access to CFP
3 An optimal conference home for ND Olympic sports
It didn't sound to me like ANY OF THE THREE were currently IN THE BAG.
Leaving aside CFP, as it's more a longer term work in process, has anyone at NBC indicated that ND's $75 million number is ACCEPTABLE?
Not making a case one way or the other. Just trying to determine if this one area is LIKELY OR NOT to be nailed down to ND's SATISFACTION.
I'm not a speculator for the most part and IN NO WAY in this INSTANCE.
Big ten teams are not getting 100mil per year, that means the overall number would be 1.6bil and it's not reaching that. You also have to take into consideration 2 things. How much is NBC willing to pay Notre Dame given they just reached a deal with the Big 10 rumored to be around the same price that CBS paid (355mil), and how much will NBC be invested in bidding for the rights to air college football playoff games when the current contract expires with ESPN in 2026.
If Big 10 teams will be making 87mil a year, and SEC teams will (likely) make slightly less than that, how is Notre Dame going to get their asking price of 75mil? It's much more likely they'll get paid around the 40-50mil a year ballpark, closer to the ACC/Big12/PAC teams.
1. TV Money - They will get much more in the Big 10
2. Access to CFP - They'll have access by remaining independent or joining the Big 10. Playoffs will be harder to reach in the Big 10, but the playoff is also expanding in half a decade. There may also be certain rules created that go against Notre Dame's favor in an expanded playoff, like conference winners and the like
3. Optimal conference home for ND olympic sports - logistically that is the Big 10. Too much travel with either the ACC or the SEC
We've been doing it for years. There has been no issue.
If Swarbrick made any suggestion of conference affiliation benefitting Notre Dame, it was a nod toward geography, a factor that would seem to benefit the Big Ten, even as it expands to Los Angeles.
“It’s so hard for our kids to travel the way they do,” he said. “When you’re going to Tallahassee, and you start with a bus trip to Midway, and then you connect once along the way before you get there, and then you’re on a bus trying to get to campus, it’s probably 18, 16 hours that you’ve been involved in traveling. That’s tough to be a pre-med major, or a finance major and do that. So, we’re always looking for ways to make the scheduling easier. But it’s media, it’s CFP and it’s our Olympic sports."
^ from the Athletic
Again, ND has been doing it for years. Not an issue.
Right. ND has been a member of the ACC in all sports but football for a decade, but it suddenly became a problem for Swarbrick this week. Gotcha.
I hear you.
But let's drill down a bit deeper.
1) How much more money do you think ND will get for TV if as a member of the Big Ten? And what's your source for that? Not cross-examining here, merely trying to ascertain KNOWN FACTS as opposed to SPECULATION.
2) So, you see CFP access either way. But if it's not via a conference championship, then HOW DO YOU ENVISION IT WILL BE DETERMINED? An at-large slot for the BEST PERFORMER AMONG ALL INDEPENDENTS? An at-large slot EXCLUSIVELY for ND if it wins a certain number of games? Other possibilities?
3) I agree that the Big 10 seems poised to succeed the ACC as per other sports. Swarbrick was pretty clear that the current travel regimen is UNACCEPTABLE LONG-TERM.
Just for purposes of FULL DISCLOSURE, I'm IN FAVOR of ND joining the Big Ten, but I'm not here to CONVINCE ANYONE that it will actually happen despite my hope that it does.
My motive?
I wish to have ALL AMBIGUITIES REMOVED in order to see how ND will perform on a COMPLETELY LEVEL PLAYING FIELD NOT OF ITS OWN CHOOSING.
I don't believe in the idea of FIRST AMONG EQUALS. Why ND wishes to hold onto this ELITIST RELIC is BEYOND ME.
You NAILED IT.
I watched the entire interview and that's VERBATIM what he said.
Good catch.
How is the Big10 worth $87mm per team and ND $40mm-$50mm?
More specifics, the Big10 is on the verge of television deals that are expected to pay it in excess of $1 billion and create a college football triple-header featuring Fox, CBS and NBC, 16 teams = $62.5mm per for each school divided by 6 home games = $10.4mm per game. That is the "floor" pricing. From the "floor" pricing goes up, and with a 12 team playoff ND will have flexibility to strengthen the schedule of seven (7) homes games.
If ND matches the floor pricing the total = $72.916mm, and if the Big10 deal is finalized ND has more leverage to negotiate with ESPN, which will be out of the business of Big Ten football and basketball for the first time in 40 years.
The Big10 Saturday format would likely be Fox with the noon kickoff followed by CBS in the late afternoon and NBC in prime time. Sources told The Post that CBS is expected to pay in the neighborhood of $350 million per year for the 3:30 p.m. game. Yes, ND has focused on the 3:30pm time slot. If that $350mm covers 14 weeks the cost per game is $25mm.
This del will replace the SEC, which will be moving all its games to ABC/ESPN in a deal that pays the SEC around $300 million for its top football games beginning in 2024. ESPN and the SEC have a separate agreement that encompasses more football and other sports that brings the SEC number to around $700 million.
You conveniently left out the parts of the Swarbick interview that don’t fit your narrative.
I literally copy pasted his quotes on geography because the poster I was replying to was acting like the travel was not an issue, which clearly it is if your own AD is making negative comments about travel to ACC schools.
Because if the deal is valued at 1.3-1.4bil, which they're already getting 800mil from Fox and 350mil roughly each from CBS and NBC, then all 16 teams in the conference get roughly 84-87mil per year. And ND will not even sniff that kind of money from NBC after they already paid for a primetime Big 10 package.
NBC is not going to pay Notre Dame anywhere close to 75mil a year for 7 home games
I listened to the entire interview. Again, you were strategic in what you cut and pasted.
Jack Swarbick And the Powers that be want Notre Dame Football to be Independent. Period.
You can spin that any way you wish.
An Ohio St. fan's vision of what is best for ND is likely quite different from an ND fan's vision. We understand that you want ND to join the Big 10. Most of us are not inclined to do so.
Did they have their own network? No
Did they ever have football legacy worldwide like ND had had for decades? No
What are they most known for? A coach that molested little boys.
Comparing a team that won a couple championships in the 80’s to a team that is loved around the world is ridiculous and out of place.
Come on man, you are my hero, your letting me down with this type of logic.
I told you, stick to the 1-5 word posts. You sound much wiser than.
Go back to your 1 word “trash” responses, those are mich
There's a big difference between want and need. Of course he wants ND to remain independent, doesn't mean it's going to happen.
It’s a vocal minority that wants Notre Dame to join the Big 10 full time.
And that minority does not include the Notre Dame administration.
And if you believe Notre Dame after it’s done negotiating their next TV contract will need the Big 10, well, you go ahead and keep believing that.
They can go to any network, not just NBC. Highest bidder gets ND. Thats a great spot to be in.
And again why are you so worried about NDs money?
Who cares
That was a dumb of logic as you can possibly get.
My God that was dumb, even for you !
LOL, you are getting dumber. Must be the Big 10 influence on you, yikes
ND is not going to any network, their relationship with NBC is excellent. I'm starting to think you don't understand how this all works. Even your AD was praising your TV partner yesterday.
But for the sake of the argument, who WOULD pick up ND home games. ESPN is going to funnel their money into the SEC and the scraps of the PAC and Big 12, and Fox, CBS, and NBC are all locked in with the Big 10.
Do you obsess this much about your own team? I don’t give a damn about any aspect of Ohio St. Football, except I do hope they beat Michigan.
They absolutely would go to a different network of it benefited the program.
Cbs, abc, espn would all pick up Notre Dame. You're out of your mind if you don't think other networks will try and get us.
How do you know about their relationship with NBC? What's your inside knowledge? What do you know about anything that has to do with Notre Dame?
You dont have a freaking clue about the University and what it stands for. That much is obvious. Stop obsessing about what we are going to do. It's embarrassing
NBC will offer Notre Dame 75mm to change conference for all sports except Football. NBC and the Big Ten will require ND to play 5 B1G Ten teams a year. Home games will be played on NBC and away games on CBS. By doing this, travel problems will solve, old rivalries will be renewed, and guarantee ND independence in Football. This will also ease the burden of traveling. Please tell me what you think.
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I'm not totally following you.
You say the Big Ten deal is IN EXCESS OF $1 BILLION, but your DIVISION QUOTIENT of $62.5 million is based on it being $1 billion ON THE NOSE. So, how much additional upside is there as respects THAT? How much IN EXCESS of $1 Billion?
You also say that this represents "FLOOR PRICING." As you see it, how much higher as per EACH TEAM can the price go? And how exactly is that determined?
You then say that the "FLOOR PRICING" comes to $72.916 million per team? Where did the extra $10 million come from?
Seems to me your number is creeping EVER CLOSER to $87 million, is it not?
And how does ND "match" that $72.916 million REVISED Big Ten "FLOOR PRICING"? By MERE ASSERTION? if so, on what basis other than some "parity" argument which, in fact, may NOT BE RELEVANT once all the numbers are in.
Put another way -- and in connection with the 3:30 time slot which you cite as often ND's -- will ESPN actually sign up ND for roughly $75 million even as it competes with the 3:30 Big Ten game?
The Big Ten deal will have long been completed by 2025. So, why would ESPN or any network then give ND that same size deal as the Big Ten's when in fact the 3:30 slot will thereafter become one of fragmented VIEWERSHIP? And that's without even factoring in the 3:30 SEC game.
I think HALF of what the Big Ten will be getting would be MORE APPROPRIATE which would move that number closer to BucksLAN's $40 to $50 million number, correct? Assuming his $87 million number is accurate.
Please understand that I'm merely trying to FOLLOW YOUR LINE OF THOUGHT HERE. If I'm missing something(s) critical, please SET ME STRAIGHT. But as it stands, I don't get your numbers, which as I've tried to point out, also don't account for ND coming LATE TO THE PARTY.
If I remember at that time, it was the B1G that wanted ND to go all in. If offered, this deal will also ensure ND independence
You summed up ND policy-making over the past 30 years with two sentences.
