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ANDREW KRISTOFIC

Manti Te'o
Michael Floyd
Kyle Rudolph
Stephon Tuitt
Jaylon Smith
Quenton Nelson

4 of them were busts at Notre Dame for one reason or another. That list includes...

Dayne Crist
Aaron Lynch
Gunner Kiel
Max Redfield
(Greg Bryant
Ishaq Williams)

So success rate is 50% -- would you agree IIO?

It would be interesting for someone to do a study of the success rate of 4*/3* -- I'm sure it wouldn't be near 50%.

Any predictions for a surprise 5* this year?
 
Manti Te'o
Michael Floyd
Kyle Rudolph
Stephon Tuitt
Jaylon Smith
Quenton Nelson

4 of them were busts at Notre Dame for one reason or another. That list includes...

Dayne Crist
Aaron Lynch
Gunner Kiel
Max Redfield
(Greg Bryant
Ishaq Williams)

So success rate is 50% -- would you agree IIO?

It would be interesting for someone to do a study of the success rate of 4*/3* -- I'm sure it wouldn't be near 50%.

Any predictions for a surprise 5* this year?

Smith, Nelson and TE’O were the only ones that contributed fully. Injury and other issues and early departure, reduced playing time for the others

Better yet, determine the % of an entire class for contribution. What % actually contribute and to what degree.
 
Smith, Nelson and TE’O were the only ones that contributed fully. Injury and other issues and early departure, reduced playing time for the others

Better yet, determine the % of an entire class for contribution. What % actually contribute and to what degree.
rule of thumb was always 1/3 of a class became solid starters,1/3 became contributors and 1/3 got their degree.
 
Greg Bryant
Ishaq Williams

Both five stars... Brings the percentage down a bit... But good post, good info. Keep it coming!

Totally forgot that Bryant was a 5 star on Rivals. 247 has him as a high 4 star comp. My bad and thanks for the correction!

The other thing that I'd add is that guys like Aaron Lynch, Greg Bryant and Max Redfield were obvious contributors. Just because they got kicked out or decided to leave, it said nothing of their skill level, or if they were inappropriately ranked, it just means they didn't make it for other reasons. Both of them were on track to play a ton of football at Notre Dame, and Lynch in particular, had the look of a future All American.

Attrition for off field reasons had to players of all ranking. That has nothing to do with their star status. The same way kids have intangibles in a positive sense that you can't possibly rank, the same same is true in a negative sense.
 
If you count the games by Nix, Tuitt, Williams, Lynch, Bryant, Kiel, Redfield, compared to what the # of games possible, it would show a lack of productivity. And Nix and Tuitt played an entire season out of shape with an eye on the draft.

When you only get commitment from a few players and 1/2 fail to be productive, then youhave the results lime the last 10 years.
 
Totally forgot that Bryant was a 5 star on Rivals. 247 has him as a high 4 star comp. My bad and thanks for the correction!

The other thing that I'd add is that guys like Aaron Lynch, Greg Bryant and Max Redfield were obvious contributors. Just because they got kicked out or decided to leave, it said nothing of their skill level, or if they were inappropriately ranked, it just means they didn't make it for other reasons. Both of them were on track to play a ton of football at Notre Dame, and Lynch in particular, had the look of a future All American.

Attrition for off field reasons had to players of all ranking. That has nothing to do with their star status. The same way kids have intangibles in a positive sense that you can't possibly rank, the same same is true in a negative sense.

I always wonder how it would have turned out for Lynch and Notre Dame had he stayed. Think both would have wound up much better.
 
Manti Te'o
Michael Floyd
Kyle Rudolph
Stephon Tuitt
Jaylon Smith
Quenton Nelson

4 of them were busts at Notre Dame for one reason or another. That list includes...

Dayne Crist
Aaron Lynch
Gunner Kiel
Max Redfield
(Greg Bryant
Ishaq Williams)

So success rate is 50% -- would you agree IIO?

It would be interesting for someone to do a study of the success rate of 4*/3* -- I'm sure it wouldn't be near 50%.

Any predictions for a surprise 5* this year?
Look at the 2013 class alone and see how many of those guys didn’t work out. I call it the misfit class.

50% hit rate for 5* is good!
 
If you count the games by Nix, Tuitt, Williams, Lynch, Bryant, Kiel, Redfield, compared to what the # of games possible, it would show a lack of productivity. And Nix and Tuitt played an entire season out of shape with an eye on the draft.

When you only get commitment from a few players and 1/2 fail to be productive, then youhave the results lime the last 10 years.

I think you have to look at every situation individually...

Louis Nix was not a 5 star, ge was a top 100 4 star, but is irrelavent to the 5 star conversation.

Stephon Tuitt was a star who lived up to his ranking. He was out of shape as a junior because he had two surgeries to fix a sports hernia that kept him from running and lifting in the off season. The fact that he left early and was still a 2nd round pick speaks volumes about his ability. His sophomore season was one for the ages.

Ishaq Williams was a certified bust. There is no defending that one!

Quarterbacks like Crist and Kiel are completely understandable. 5 star quarterbacks bust all the time at the nation's top programs. It's such a unique position, it has the biggest jump between high school and college, and college to the NFL of all the positions, and usually it's a fierce battle between multiple highly ranked candidates for the one available job. Lots of guys have 5 star ability, but they never grasp the game mentally, or the speed of the game proves to be more than they can handle, mentally. Also, it is probably the position (along with offensive line) most influenced by the quality of coaching you receive. For a lot of guys, their development hinges on them playing under a coach that can teach them how to turn their 5 star talent into production and success... The fact that those guys were busts comes with a huge asterisk for me because of the position they play and the enormous failure rate among quarterbacks, especially top flight schools


Greg Bryant, Max Redfield and Aaron Lynch will always fall into the "we'll never know" category because of off field issues. If I had to guess, Redfield would have started as a senior, never lived up to his billing, but certainly would have been better than the two freshmen Kelly started back there during the 4-8 season. He would have been a 3 year starter, but always seen as a semi bust. Greg Bryant would have been a really solid back in rotation with Tarean Folston and later, CJ Prosise. Probably never an Alabama type 5 star back, but a quality contributor. In Aaron Lynch's case he flashed stardom. He could have been a dominant DE and based on how good he was as a freshman, I think they hit the nail on the head regarding his ability, and as I previously pointed out, they rank talent, not character.

Again, it's one thing for me to throw a number out there, but looking at individual cases really provides context behind the various forms of "busts".
 
Not if they are at the rate of 1 per year.

Even if only 2 out 4 was a hit on the All American level ND has hit on, I'd still rather have two players like Floyd, Te'o, Smith or Nelson in my program at some point in their development, if the alternative is not landing them at all.
 
I think you have to look at every situation individually...

Louis Nix was not a 5 star, ge was a top 100 4 star, but is irrelavent to the 5 star conversation.

Stephon Tuitt was a star who lived up to his ranking. He was out of shape as a junior because he had two surgeries to fix a sports hernia that kept him from running and lifting in the off season. The fact that he left early and was still a 2nd round pick speaks volumes about his ability. His sophomore season was one for the ages.

Ishaq Williams was a certified bust. There is no defending that one!

Quarterbacks like Crist and Kiel are completely understandable. 5 star quarterbacks bust all the time at the nation's top programs. It's such a unique position, it has the biggest jump between high school and college, and college to the NFL of all the positions, and usually it's a fierce battle between multiple highly ranked candidates for the one available job. Lots of guys have 5 star ability, but they never grasp the game mentally, or the speed of the game proves to be more than they can handle, mentally. Also, it is probably the position (along with offensive line) most influenced by the quality of coaching you receive. For a lot of guys, their development hinges on them playing under a coach that can teach them how to turn their 5 star talent into production and success... The fact that those guys were busts comes with a huge asterisk for me because of the position they play and the enormous failure rate among quarterbacks, especially top flight schools


Greg Bryant, Max Redfield and Aaron Lynch will always fall into the "we'll never know" category because of off field issues. If I had to guess, Redfield would have started as a senior, never lived up to his billing, but certainly would have been better than the two freshmen Kelly started back there during the 4-8 season. He would have been a 3 year starter, but always seen as a semi bust. Greg Bryant would have been a really solid back in rotation with Tarean Folston and later, CJ Prosise. Probably never an Alabama type 5 star back, but a quality contributor. In Aaron Lynch's case he flashed stardom. He could have been a dominant DE and based on how good he was as a freshman, I think they hit the nail on the head regarding his ability, and as I previously pointed out, they rank talent, not character.

Again, it's one thing for me to throw a number out there, but looking at individual cases really provides context behind the various forms of "busts".

It is all about the productivty. In hindsight, who cares about the reason. The lack of productivity from perceived playmakers was evident on the field. (I knew Nix was not a 5*, but my focus is on the expected impact of key recruits.)
 
In the same 2008-2018 period that ND had a 50% hit rate on their 5 stars becoming All Americans, here were the composite 3 star players they landed...

Hafis Williams (2008)
David Posluszny (2008)
Mike Golic Jr. (2008)
Carlo Calabrese (2009)
Dan Fox (2009)
Tyler Eifert (2009)
Jordan Coward (2009)
Jake Golic (2009)
Robby Toma (2009)
Prince Shembo (2010)
Dany Spond (2010)
Kendall Moore (2010)
Kona Schwenke (2010)
Tommy Rees (2010)
Spencer Boyd (2010)
Chris Badger (2010)
Lo Wood (2010)
Bennett Jackson (2010)
Justin Utupo (2010)
Daniel Smith (2010)
Derek Roback (2010)
Tate Nichols (2010)
Luke Massa (2010)
Austin Collinsworth (2010)
Bruce Heggie (2010)
Anthony Rabasa (2011)
Jarrett Grace (2011)
Tony Springmann (2011)
Chase Hounshell (2011)
Nick Martin (2011)
Cam McDaniel (2011)
Brad Carrico (2011)
Jalen Brown (2011)
Connor Hanratty (2011)
Matthias Farley (2011)
Chris Brown (2012)
Romeo Okwara (2012)
Nicky Baratti (2012)
Mark Harrell (2012)
John Turner (2012)
Scott Daly (2012)
Rashas Kinlaw (2013)
Jacob Matuska (2013)
Mchael Deeb (2013)
Corey Robinson (2013)
Greer Martini (2014)
Jonathan Bonner (2014)
Kolin Hill (2014)
Jhonathan Williams (2014)
Pete Mokwuah (2014)
Jalen Guyton (2015)
Trevor Ruhland (2015)
Mykelti Williams (2015)
Brandon Tiassum (2015)
Micah Dew-Treadway (2015)
Ashton White (2015)
Nick Coleman (2015)
Nicco Fertitta (2015)
Jonathan Jones (2016)
Jalen Elliot (2016)
Julian Love (2016)
DJ Morgan (2016)
Devin Studstill (2016)
Ian Book (2016)
Spencer Perry (2016)
Kevin Stepherson (2016)
Ade Ogundeji (2016)
Deon McIntosh (2016)
Jamir Jones (2016)
John Shannon (2016)
Dillan Gibbons (2017)
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (2017)
Jafar Armstrong (2017)
Myron Tagavailoa-Amosa (2017)
Michael Young (2017)
Kurt Hinish (2017)
Jordan Genmark-Heath (2017)
Jonathan MacCollister (2017)
Drew White (2017)
Kofi Wardlow (2017)
Tariq Bracy (2018)
Tommy Tremble (2018)
John Dirksen (2018)
Luke Jones (2018)
Ovie Oghoufo (2018)
Ja'mion Franklin (2018)
Jahmir Smith (2018)
Justin Ademilola (2018)
Cole Mabry (2018)
Joe Wilkins (2018)
Paul Moala (2018)
C'Bo Flemister (2018)

In the same 2008-2018 period in which Notre Dame had a 50% hit rate on their 5 stars becoming All Americans, Notre Dame recruited 92 composite 3 star players, not including kickers and punters (who are never rated above 3 stars). For the sake of this analysis, I will exclude all players still at Notre Dame (both 3 and 5 star) as their career has not yet finished and, therefore, their chance to become an All American, or not, is still available. Therefore, I will remove 37 names from the list, leaving us with 55, 3 stars recruited between 2008 and 2018 that are no longer on the roster. I will also disregard Daelin Hayes and Tommy Kraemer for the same reason from the list of 5 stars....

Of the 3 stars the 55, 3 star players that ND recruited between 2008-2018 that are no longer on ND's roster, ONE, that's right, ONE of them, became an All American... Tyler Eifert.

So you want to know the difference...

12, 5 stars= 50% All American hit rate
55, 3 stars= 1.82% All American hit rate

Anyone who believes that there is no correlation between rankings and success want to try to explain that to me!?
 
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In the same 2008-2018 period that ND had a 50% hit rate on their 5 stars becoming All Americans, here were the composite 3 star players they landed...

Hafis Williams (2008)
David Posluszny (2008)
Mike Golic Jr. (2008)
Carlo Calabrese (2009)
Dan Fox (2009)
Tyler Eifert (2009)
Jordan Coward (2009)
Jake Golic (2009)
Robby Toma (2009)
Prince Shembo (2010)
Dany Spond (2010)
Kendall Moore (2010)
Kona Schwenke (2010)
Tommy Rees (2010)
Spencer Boyd (2010)
Chris Badger (2010)
Lo Wood (2010)
Bennett Jackson (2010)
Justin Utupo (2010)
Daniel Smith (2010)
Derek Roback (2010)
Tate Nichols (2010)
Luke Massa (2010)
Austin Collinsworth (2010)
Bruce Heggie (2010)
Anthony Rabasa (2011)
Jarrett Grace (2011)
Tony Springmann (2011)
Chase Hounshell (2011)
Nick Martin (2011)
Cam McDaniel (2011)
Brad Carrico (2011)
Jalen Brown (2011)
Connor Hanratty (2011)
Matthias Farley (2011)
Chris Brown (2012)
Romeo Okwara (2012)
Nicky Baratti (2012)
Mark Harrell (2012)
John Turner (2012)
Scott Daly (2012)
Rashas Kinlaw (2013)
Jacob Matuska (2013)
Mchael Deeb (2013)
Corey Robinson (2013)
Greer Martini (2014)
Jonathan Bonner (2014)
Kolin Hill (2014)
Jhonathan Williams (2014)
Pete Mokwuah (2014)
Jalen Guyton (2015)
Trevor Ruhland (2015)
Mykelti Williams (2015)
Brandon Tiassum (2015)
Micah Dew-Treadway (2015)
Ashton White (2015)
Nick Coleman (2015)
Nicco Fertitta (2015)
Jonathan Jones (2016)
Jalen Elliot (2016)
Julian Love (2016)
DJ Morgan (2016)
Devin Studstill (2016)
Ian Book (2016)
Spencer Perry (2016)
Kevin Stepherson (2016)
Ade Ogundeji (2016)
Deon McIntosh (2016)
Jamir Jones (2016)
John Shannon (2016)
Dillan Gibbons (2017)
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (2017)
Jafar Armstrong (2017)
Myron Tagavailoa-Amosa (2017)
Michael Young (2017)
Kurt Hinish (2017)
Jordan Genmark-Heath (2017)
Jonathan MacCollister (2017)
Drew White (2017)
Kofi Wardlow (2017)
Tariq Bracy (2018)
Tommy Tremble (2018)
John Dirksen (2018)
Luke Jones (2018)
Ovie Oghoufo (2018)
Ja'mion Franklin (2018)
Jahmir Smith (2018)
Justin Ademilola (2018)
Cole Mabry (2018)
Joe Wilkins (2018)
Paul Moala (2018)
C'Bo Flemister (2018)

In the same 2008-2018 period in which Notre Dame had a 50% hit rate on their 5 stars becoming All Americans, Notre Dame recruited 92 composite 3 star players, not including kickers and punters (who are never rated above 3 stars). For the sake of this analysis, I will exclude all players still at Notre Dame (both 3 and 5 star) as their career has not yet finished and, therefore, their chance to become an All American, or not, is still available. Therefore, I will remove 37 names from the list, leaving us with 55, 3 stars recruited between 2008 and 2018 that are no longer on the roster. I will also disregard Daelin Hayes and Tommy Kraemer for the same reason from the list of 5 stars....

Of the 3 stars the 55, 3 star players that ND recruited between 2008-2018 that are no longer on ND's roster, ONE, that's right, ONE of them, became an All American... Tyler Eifert.

So you want to know the difference...

12, 5 stars= 50% All American hit rate
55, 3 stars= 1.82% All American hit rate

Anyone who believes that there is no correlation between rankings and success want to try to explain that to me!?


Was Eifert a 1st team AA?

NM: 2nd team.
 
Last edited:
In the same 2008-2018 period that ND had a 50% hit rate on their 5 stars becoming All Americans, here were the composite 3 star players they landed...

Hafis Williams (2008)
David Posluszny (2008)
Mike Golic Jr. (2008)
Carlo Calabrese (2009)
Dan Fox (2009)
Tyler Eifert (2009)
Jordan Coward (2009)
Jake Golic (2009)
Robby Toma (2009)
Prince Shembo (2010)
Dany Spond (2010)
Kendall Moore (2010)
Kona Schwenke (2010)
Tommy Rees (2010)
Spencer Boyd (2010)
Chris Badger (2010)
Lo Wood (2010)
Bennett Jackson (2010)
Justin Utupo (2010)
Daniel Smith (2010)
Derek Roback (2010)
Tate Nichols (2010)
Luke Massa (2010)
Austin Collinsworth (2010)
Bruce Heggie (2010)
Anthony Rabasa (2011)
Jarrett Grace (2011)
Tony Springmann (2011)
Chase Hounshell (2011)
Nick Martin (2011)
Cam McDaniel (2011)
Brad Carrico (2011)
Jalen Brown (2011)
Connor Hanratty (2011)
Matthias Farley (2011)
Chris Brown (2012)
Romeo Okwara (2012)
Nicky Baratti (2012)
Mark Harrell (2012)
John Turner (2012)
Scott Daly (2012)
Rashas Kinlaw (2013)
Jacob Matuska (2013)
Mchael Deeb (2013)
Corey Robinson (2013)
Greer Martini (2014)
Jonathan Bonner (2014)
Kolin Hill (2014)
Jhonathan Williams (2014)
Pete Mokwuah (2014)
Jalen Guyton (2015)
Trevor Ruhland (2015)
Mykelti Williams (2015)
Brandon Tiassum (2015)
Micah Dew-Treadway (2015)
Ashton White (2015)
Nick Coleman (2015)
Nicco Fertitta (2015)
Jonathan Jones (2016)
Jalen Elliot (2016)
Julian Love (2016)
DJ Morgan (2016)
Devin Studstill (2016)
Ian Book (2016)
Spencer Perry (2016)
Kevin Stepherson (2016)
Ade Ogundeji (2016)
Deon McIntosh (2016)
Jamir Jones (2016)
John Shannon (2016)
Dillan Gibbons (2017)
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (2017)
Jafar Armstrong (2017)
Myron Tagavailoa-Amosa (2017)
Michael Young (2017)
Kurt Hinish (2017)
Jordan Genmark-Heath (2017)
Jonathan MacCollister (2017)
Drew White (2017)
Kofi Wardlow (2017)
Tariq Bracy (2018)
Tommy Tremble (2018)
John Dirksen (2018)
Luke Jones (2018)
Ovie Oghoufo (2018)
Ja'mion Franklin (2018)
Jahmir Smith (2018)
Justin Ademilola (2018)
Cole Mabry (2018)
Joe Wilkins (2018)
Paul Moala (2018)
C'Bo Flemister (2018)

In the same 2008-2018 period in which Notre Dame had a 50% hit rate on their 5 stars becoming All Americans, Notre Dame recruited 92 composite 3 star players, not including kickers and punters (who are never rated above 3 stars). For the sake of this analysis, I will exclude all players still at Notre Dame (both 3 and 5 star) as their career has not yet finished and, therefore, their chance to become an All American, or not, is still available. Therefore, I will remove 37 names from the list, leaving us with 55, 3 stars recruited between 2008 and 2018 that are no longer on the roster. I will also disregard Daelin Hayes and Tommy Kraemer for the same reason from the list of 5 stars....

Of the 3 stars the 55, 3 star players that ND recruited between 2008-2018 that are no longer on ND's roster, ONE, that's right, ONE of them, became an All American... Tyler Eifert.

So you want to know the difference...

12, 5 stars= 50% All American hit rate
55, 3 stars= 1.82% All American hit rate

Anyone who believes that there is no correlation between rankings and success want to try to explain that to me!?
Imagine that Ontario. Let me guess the hit rate for 4* players is much higher than 3 star players. People knock recruiting services, but they do a fairly good job at evaluation 1000's of players and ranking them.

What I'd like to see is the accuracy broken down by site. I'd guess 247 has been the best by far recently.
 
Imagine that Ontario. Let me guess the hit rate for 4* players is much higher than 3 star players. People knock recruiting services, but they do a fairly good job at evaluation 1000's of players and ranking them.

What I'd like to see is the accuracy broken down by site. I'd guess 247 has been the best by far recently.


Hit rate? AA? As for starters, someone has to start.
 
In the same 2008-2018 period that ND had a 50% hit rate on their 5 stars becoming All Americans, here were the composite 3 star players they landed...

Hafis Williams (2008)
David Posluszny (2008)
Mike Golic Jr. (2008)
Carlo Calabrese (2009)
Dan Fox (2009)
Tyler Eifert (2009)
Jordan Coward (2009)
Jake Golic (2009)
Robby Toma (2009)
Prince Shembo (2010)
Dany Spond (2010)
Kendall Moore (2010)
Kona Schwenke (2010)
Tommy Rees (2010)
Spencer Boyd (2010)
Chris Badger (2010)
Lo Wood (2010)
Bennett Jackson (2010)
Justin Utupo (2010)
Daniel Smith (2010)
Derek Roback (2010)
Tate Nichols (2010)
Luke Massa (2010)
Austin Collinsworth (2010)
Bruce Heggie (2010)
Anthony Rabasa (2011)
Jarrett Grace (2011)
Tony Springmann (2011)
Chase Hounshell (2011)
Nick Martin (2011)
Cam McDaniel (2011)
Brad Carrico (2011)
Jalen Brown (2011)
Connor Hanratty (2011)
Matthias Farley (2011)
Chris Brown (2012)
Romeo Okwara (2012)
Nicky Baratti (2012)
Mark Harrell (2012)
John Turner (2012)
Scott Daly (2012)
Rashas Kinlaw (2013)
Jacob Matuska (2013)
Mchael Deeb (2013)
Corey Robinson (2013)
Greer Martini (2014)
Jonathan Bonner (2014)
Kolin Hill (2014)
Jhonathan Williams (2014)
Pete Mokwuah (2014)
Jalen Guyton (2015)
Trevor Ruhland (2015)
Mykelti Williams (2015)
Brandon Tiassum (2015)
Micah Dew-Treadway (2015)
Ashton White (2015)
Nick Coleman (2015)
Nicco Fertitta (2015)
Jonathan Jones (2016)
Jalen Elliot (2016)
Julian Love (2016)
DJ Morgan (2016)
Devin Studstill (2016)
Ian Book (2016)
Spencer Perry (2016)
Kevin Stepherson (2016)
Ade Ogundeji (2016)
Deon McIntosh (2016)
Jamir Jones (2016)
John Shannon (2016)
Dillan Gibbons (2017)
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (2017)
Jafar Armstrong (2017)
Myron Tagavailoa-Amosa (2017)
Michael Young (2017)
Kurt Hinish (2017)
Jordan Genmark-Heath (2017)
Jonathan MacCollister (2017)
Drew White (2017)
Kofi Wardlow (2017)
Tariq Bracy (2018)
Tommy Tremble (2018)
John Dirksen (2018)
Luke Jones (2018)
Ovie Oghoufo (2018)
Ja'mion Franklin (2018)
Jahmir Smith (2018)
Justin Ademilola (2018)
Cole Mabry (2018)
Joe Wilkins (2018)
Paul Moala (2018)
C'Bo Flemister (2018)

In the same 2008-2018 period in which Notre Dame had a 50% hit rate on their 5 stars becoming All Americans, Notre Dame recruited 92 composite 3 star players, not including kickers and punters (who are never rated above 3 stars). For the sake of this analysis, I will exclude all players still at Notre Dame (both 3 and 5 star) as their career has not yet finished and, therefore, their chance to become an All American, or not, is still available. Therefore, I will remove 37 names from the list, leaving us with 55, 3 stars recruited between 2008 and 2018 that are no longer on the roster. I will also disregard Daelin Hayes and Tommy Kraemer for the same reason from the list of 5 stars....

Of the 3 stars the 55, 3 star players that ND recruited between 2008-2018 that are no longer on ND's roster, ONE, that's right, ONE of them, became an All American... Tyler Eifert.

So you want to know the difference...

12, 5 stars= 50% All American hit rate
55, 3 stars= 1.82% All American hit rate

Anyone who believes that there is no correlation between rankings and success want to try to explain that to me!?


Chase is “Dancing in Rain!”
 
Hit rate? AA? As for starters, someone has to start.

Every team has 22 starters... Doesn't mean they are any good... There are plenty of times that start 16-22 3 star players, with the rest being 4 stars, and they struggle to win more than 6 or 7 games each year.

Furthermore, If you adjusted the hit rate so that it encompassed players who have started for ND, the 5 stars would over the past 10 years would have "hit" at a rate of an incredible 75%, and near 85% by time Kraemer and Hayes graduate, while without doing the math, the rate for 3 star players might be what? 20-25%?... They're still not in the same realm.
 
In the same 2008-2018 period that ND had a 50% hit rate on their 5 stars becoming All Americans, here were the composite 3 star players they landed...

Hafis Williams (2008)
David Posluszny (2008)
Mike Golic Jr. (2008)
Carlo Calabrese (2009)
Dan Fox (2009)
Tyler Eifert (2009)
Jordan Coward (2009)
Jake Golic (2009)
Robby Toma (2009)
Prince Shembo (2010)
Dany Spond (2010)
Kendall Moore (2010)
Kona Schwenke (2010)
Tommy Rees (2010)
Spencer Boyd (2010)
Chris Badger (2010)
Lo Wood (2010)
Bennett Jackson (2010)
Justin Utupo (2010)
Daniel Smith (2010)
Derek Roback (2010)
Tate Nichols (2010)
Luke Massa (2010)
Austin Collinsworth (2010)
Bruce Heggie (2010)
Anthony Rabasa (2011)
Jarrett Grace (2011)
Tony Springmann (2011)
Chase Hounshell (2011)
Nick Martin (2011)
Cam McDaniel (2011)
Brad Carrico (2011)
Jalen Brown (2011)
Connor Hanratty (2011)
Matthias Farley (2011)
Chris Brown (2012)
Romeo Okwara (2012)
Nicky Baratti (2012)
Mark Harrell (2012)
John Turner (2012)
Scott Daly (2012)
Rashas Kinlaw (2013)
Jacob Matuska (2013)
Mchael Deeb (2013)
Corey Robinson (2013)
Greer Martini (2014)
Jonathan Bonner (2014)
Kolin Hill (2014)
Jhonathan Williams (2014)
Pete Mokwuah (2014)
Jalen Guyton (2015)
Trevor Ruhland (2015)
Mykelti Williams (2015)
Brandon Tiassum (2015)
Micah Dew-Treadway (2015)
Ashton White (2015)
Nick Coleman (2015)
Nicco Fertitta (2015)
Jonathan Jones (2016)
Jalen Elliot (2016)
Julian Love (2016)
DJ Morgan (2016)
Devin Studstill (2016)
Ian Book (2016)
Spencer Perry (2016)
Kevin Stepherson (2016)
Ade Ogundeji (2016)
Deon McIntosh (2016)
Jamir Jones (2016)
John Shannon (2016)
Dillan Gibbons (2017)
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (2017)
Jafar Armstrong (2017)
Myron Tagavailoa-Amosa (2017)
Michael Young (2017)
Kurt Hinish (2017)
Jordan Genmark-Heath (2017)
Jonathan MacCollister (2017)
Drew White (2017)
Kofi Wardlow (2017)
Tariq Bracy (2018)
Tommy Tremble (2018)
John Dirksen (2018)
Luke Jones (2018)
Ovie Oghoufo (2018)
Ja'mion Franklin (2018)
Jahmir Smith (2018)
Justin Ademilola (2018)
Cole Mabry (2018)
Joe Wilkins (2018)
Paul Moala (2018)
C'Bo Flemister (2018)

In the same 2008-2018 period in which Notre Dame had a 50% hit rate on their 5 stars becoming All Americans, Notre Dame recruited 92 composite 3 star players, not including kickers and punters (who are never rated above 3 stars). For the sake of this analysis, I will exclude all players still at Notre Dame (both 3 and 5 star) as their career has not yet finished and, therefore, their chance to become an All American, or not, is still available. Therefore, I will remove 37 names from the list, leaving us with 55, 3 stars recruited between 2008 and 2018 that are no longer on the roster. I will also disregard Daelin Hayes and Tommy Kraemer for the same reason from the list of 5 stars....

Of the 3 stars the 55, 3 star players that ND recruited between 2008-2018 that are no longer on ND's roster, ONE, that's right, ONE of them, became an All American... Tyler Eifert.

So you want to know the difference...

12, 5 stars= 50% All American hit rate
55, 3 stars= 1.82% All American hit rate

Anyone who believes that there is no correlation between rankings and success want to try to explain that to me!?
You clearly haven’t listened to our resident football genius Friedman. Recruiting clearly doesn’t matter and the 5* just got lucky! A 3* is just as good as a 5* obviously. Oh and Ezekial Elliot wasn’t a key to Ohio State winning a title... right @FriedmanIP ?
 
In the same 2008-2018 period that ND had a 50% hit rate on their 5 stars becoming All Americans, here were the composite 3 star players they landed...

Hafis Williams (2008)
David Posluszny (2008)
Mike Golic Jr. (2008)
Carlo Calabrese (2009)
Dan Fox (2009)
Tyler Eifert (2009)
Jordan Coward (2009)
Jake Golic (2009)
Robby Toma (2009)
Prince Shembo (2010)
Dany Spond (2010)
Kendall Moore (2010)
Kona Schwenke (2010)
Tommy Rees (2010)
Spencer Boyd (2010)
Chris Badger (2010)
Lo Wood (2010)
Bennett Jackson (2010)
Justin Utupo (2010)
Daniel Smith (2010)
Derek Roback (2010)
Tate Nichols (2010)
Luke Massa (2010)
Austin Collinsworth (2010)
Bruce Heggie (2010)
Anthony Rabasa (2011)
Jarrett Grace (2011)
Tony Springmann (2011)
Chase Hounshell (2011)
Nick Martin (2011)
Cam McDaniel (2011)
Brad Carrico (2011)
Jalen Brown (2011)
Connor Hanratty (2011)
Matthias Farley (2011)
Chris Brown (2012)
Romeo Okwara (2012)
Nicky Baratti (2012)
Mark Harrell (2012)
John Turner (2012)
Scott Daly (2012)
Rashas Kinlaw (2013)
Jacob Matuska (2013)
Mchael Deeb (2013)
Corey Robinson (2013)
Greer Martini (2014)
Jonathan Bonner (2014)
Kolin Hill (2014)
Jhonathan Williams (2014)
Pete Mokwuah (2014)
Jalen Guyton (2015)
Trevor Ruhland (2015)
Mykelti Williams (2015)
Brandon Tiassum (2015)
Micah Dew-Treadway (2015)
Ashton White (2015)
Nick Coleman (2015)
Nicco Fertitta (2015)
Jonathan Jones (2016)
Jalen Elliot (2016)
Julian Love (2016)
DJ Morgan (2016)
Devin Studstill (2016)
Ian Book (2016)
Spencer Perry (2016)
Kevin Stepherson (2016)
Ade Ogundeji (2016)
Deon McIntosh (2016)
Jamir Jones (2016)
John Shannon (2016)
Dillan Gibbons (2017)
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (2017)
Jafar Armstrong (2017)
Myron Tagavailoa-Amosa (2017)
Michael Young (2017)
Kurt Hinish (2017)
Jordan Genmark-Heath (2017)
Jonathan MacCollister (2017)
Drew White (2017)
Kofi Wardlow (2017)
Tariq Bracy (2018)
Tommy Tremble (2018)
John Dirksen (2018)
Luke Jones (2018)
Ovie Oghoufo (2018)
Ja'mion Franklin (2018)
Jahmir Smith (2018)
Justin Ademilola (2018)
Cole Mabry (2018)
Joe Wilkins (2018)
Paul Moala (2018)
C'Bo Flemister (2018)

In the same 2008-2018 period in which Notre Dame had a 50% hit rate on their 5 stars becoming All Americans, Notre Dame recruited 92 composite 3 star players, not including kickers and punters (who are never rated above 3 stars). For the sake of this analysis, I will exclude all players still at Notre Dame (both 3 and 5 star) as their career has not yet finished and, therefore, their chance to become an All American, or not, is still available. Therefore, I will remove 37 names from the list, leaving us with 55, 3 stars recruited between 2008 and 2018 that are no longer on the roster. I will also disregard Daelin Hayes and Tommy Kraemer for the same reason from the list of 5 stars....

Of the 3 stars the 55, 3 star players that ND recruited between 2008-2018 that are no longer on ND's roster, ONE, that's right, ONE of them, became an All American... Tyler Eifert.

So you want to know the difference...

12, 5 stars= 50% All American hit rate
55, 3 stars= 1.82% All American hit rate

Anyone who believes that there is no correlation between rankings and success want to try to explain that to me!?
wow ! someone has a lot of free time ...
 
Going against the best in skills camps is what they will go through if they are asked to the NFL tryouts so what's the fuss? It's great to see how your skills stack up against the other guys, then you just might see what you have to work on.
 
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