After 2 games, ND ranked 15th in F+

[chaseball]

After that really poor showing vs Marshall I thought ND was going to get hit even harder in F+, but they managed to stay at #15. It's a good reminder that despite how bad the optics look losing to Marshall, ND is still one of the better teams in college football, and there's still plenty of time for MF to get this ship going in the right direction.

Top 5
1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. OSU
4. Michigan
5. OU

2022 COLLEGE FOOTBALL F+ RATINGS | Football Outsiders

2022 F+ ratings combining FEI and SP+

www.footballoutsiders.com

 

[d1042]

Marshall #58

These rankings are rank.

 

[TheSodFather]

 

[chaseball]

Marshall #58

These rankings are rank.

upsets happen in cfb. You think a G5 school is ready to compete for a national title suddenly because they upset a good program?

 

[88ND]

upsets happen in cfb. You think a G5 school is ready to compete for a national title suddenly because they upset a good program?

Yes they are and have been...

UCF very well could've beat Bama...which BTW UCF finished undefeated ...

The only team undefeated and beat the only team that beat Bama...(Auburn)

Moreover look at Cincinnati last year who had a better playoff showing than we ever did.

It can and will happen.

It needs to happen ( and will) to wreck this elitest arrogance among the P5 bullshit.

 

[88ND]

Marshall #58

These rankings are rank.

upsets happen in cfb. You think a G5 school is ready to compete for a national title suddenly because they upset a good program?

#58 is bullshit

Marshall at this point should be around #8

 

[tbonesays]

Marshall #58

These rankings are rank.

F just rates efficiency, points:yards, or the inverse of wasted yards that don't score points.

Pick-6s do not go into total yards so Marshall got no F+ credit for their back breaking play.

 

[chaseball]

F just rates efficiency, points:yards, or the inverse of wasted yards that don't score points.

Pick-6s do not go into total yards so Marshall got no F+ credit for their back breaking play.

F+ views a team down to the play by play level (e.g. a good play promotes your ranking, a bad play reduces your ranking) and then neutralizes the performance for strength of schedule and for luck. The system omits garbage-time performance as well.

 

[d1042]

try looking at the scoreboard?

 

[ivan brunetti]

F+ views a team down to the play by play level (e.g. a good play promotes your ranking, a bad play reduces your ranking) and then neutralizes the performance for strength of schedule and for luck. The system omits garbage-time performance as well.

Does it adjust for just how good or bad plays are? A run where someone whiffs on a block that only goes for one yard on second and three is a bad play. An interception on a quick five yard out that is returned 80 yards for a TD is maybe 50 times worse.

 

[chaseball]

Does it adjust for just how good or bad plays are? A run where someone whiffs on a block that only goes for one yard on second and three is a bad play. An interception on a quick five yard out that is returned 80 yards for a TD is maybe 50 times worse.

The system sees a 5-yard run play versus Alabama as a 5-yard run play versus Alabama and they see a 5-yard run play vs Rice as a 5-yard run play vs Rice

If a team has multiple successful drives versus Alabama with multiple successful plays throughout the course of a game the system will reward the team accordingly for it. If said team were to struggle to move the ball versus Rice and fails to perform successful plays and drives vs Rice the system will penalize the team harshly for it.

Also, the reason it is important to track a team based on play by play data and not game by game data is because there's a lot more information in play by play data with which to analyze/evaluate a team's performance by.

I'm not sure exactly how turnovers are incorporated into the system but I do know that turnovers are highly variable events and they have a bigger effect on the score in the game than they have on telling us which teams are actually better at winning football games going forward.

So a team that won a game and was on the receiving end of a lot of turnovers but largely struggled to move the ball or stop the other team from moving the ball would have all of those factors (weighted properly) in their F+ ranking.

The beauty in this system is that it takes out all of the human bias and error. ND and OSU are viewed only as two separate items on a spreadsheet and the only way one team is getting ranked ahead of the other is if the numbers add up enough to get them there.

 

[savvyandsassier]

The only reason I could think of for ND being so high, in this ranking system, is that HS recruiting ratings comprise like, 98.8% of the criteria. Maybe 99.6%....

 

[chaseball]

The only reason I could think of for ND being so high, in this ranking system, is that HS recruiting ratings comprise like, 98.8% of the criteria. Maybe 99.6%....

The system sees Notre Dame's performance versus OSU and it sees the performance versus Marshall. All of the performance matters. And based on that performance Notre Dame is 15th.

The way the system initially incorporates opponent quality early in the season is by the team's last 4-5 recruiting cycles, previous years performance etc. So ND is definitely getting some love for some of those factors but those factors are usually really predictive on how well a team will do going forward.

 

[savvyandsassier]

The system sees Notre Dame's performance versus OSU and it sees the performance versus Marshall. All of the performance matters. And based on that performance Notre Dame is 15th.

The way the system initially incorporates opponent quality early in the season is by the team's last 4-5 recruiting cycles, previous years performance etc. So ND is definitely getting some love for some of those factors but those factors are usually really predictive on how well a team will do going forward.

Alright, man. That explains everything. I thought even for a troll like you are that you prided yourself a bit on not being, I don't know, so nakedly tautological, but perhaps I misjudged you.....

 

[francade]

Any system that has us at #15 sucks

 

[d1042]

F (+,-) is about right so far

 

[francade]

If it has us at #15, no it isn’t.

 

[chaseball]

thousands of hours put into a comprehensive system refined over multiple decades which a portion is now published to ESPN Insider vs a vocal minority here who don't know shit about advanced ranking systems/formulas and their one liners completely dismissing the system...?

hmmmm

 

[ivan brunetti]

thousands of hours put into a comprehensive system refined over multiple decades which a portion is now published to ESPN Insider vs a vocal minority here who don't know shit about advanced ranking systems/formulas and their one liners completely dismissing the system...?

hmmmm

ND is 17th in Sagarin. Marshall is 44th. Which tells us nothing more than "upsets happen". And that these computer models typically need about 8 weeks worth of input to look reasonable.

 

[Patrirish]

thousands of hours put into a comprehensive system refined over multiple decades which a portion is now published to ESPN Insider vs a vocal minority here who don't know shit about advanced ranking systems/formulas and their one liners completely dismissing the system...?

hmmmm

Chaseball does make a valid point 👍

 

[francade]

I don’t care how many hours some cyber metric geek watched tape, if it has us at #15, it’s dumb. There are countless examples of this in your beloved “advanced ranking systems”, not just having ND at #15. I know it’s your gospel, not to me, so stop trying to make it the end all and if you don’t subscribe to it, you’re just an ignorant know nothing.

 

[tbonesays]

F+ views a team down to the play by play level (e.g. a good play promotes your ranking, a bad play reduces your ranking) and then neutralizes the performance for strength of schedule and for luck. The system omits garbage-time performance as well.

Yes it's a good way of showing why the most successful teams are the having the most success. The game is scored by TDs and not total yards. My criticism is that it is a completely backwards looking metric that does tells you nothing about what to do going forward.

Any system that has us at #15 sucks

I don’t care how many hours some cyber metric geek watched tape, if it has us at #15, it’s dumb. There are countless examples of this in your beloved “advanced ranking systems”, not just having ND at #15. I know it’s your gospel, not to me, so stop trying to make it the end all and if you don’t subscribe to it, you’re just an ignorant know nothing.

As I understand it F considers turnovers as random luck. It treats future-starter Pyne throwing directly to a defender the same as if the starter had a tipped ball.

 

[chaseball]

I don’t care how many hours some cyber metric geek watched tape, if it has us at #15, it’s dumb. There are countless examples of this in your beloved “advanced ranking systems”, not just having ND at #15. I know it’s your gospel, not to me, so stop trying to make it the end all and if you don’t subscribe to it, you’re just an ignorant know nothing.

I've never made the point that other polls or ranking systems or other methods used for ranking teams are invalid I've only made the point that this ranking system is also valid. It's those that ignorantly dismiss this because it doesn't conform to the traditional way teams are ranked that are missing out on some solid analysis but I digress.

The F+ model is a similar system oddsmakers use to help them set their lines and F+ is available to the public.

 

[savvyandsassier]

I'm not even sure what the purpose of this sort of shit even is. I guess you got a bunch of geeks in the richest country in the world with time on their hands, who want to somehow attach themselves to athletic endeavor.....

The purpose of sports is to decide it on the field as they say, and even the notion of polls and power ratings stands as a basic anathema to the undertaking. But CFB being as perverse and corrupt as it has always been, instead of some sort of national playoff, which would settle it on the field with a simple winner or loser, we had the bowls and the polls, and the odious tradition of voting on the best teams became established. And the rest is history....

I like that this particular power rating system is called F+. Like that's the academic grade it gets for having anything useful to offer....

 

[chaseball]

Two dudes were originally behind F+, and one of them is an ND alumn and still publishes the system to this day he builds other advanced models for footballoutsiders.com (Brian Fremeau look him up). The other guy is Bill Connelly and his work on F+ got him a job with ESPN. He analyses college football using his statistical models and publishes his content for ESPN Insider members now. These are like published math dudes employed by reputable brands not a couple of neckbeards eating pizza in their mom's basement masturbating to their calculators all day.

 

[savvyandsassier]

Two dudes were originally behind F+, and one of them is an ND alumn and still publishes the system to this day he builds other advanced models for footballoutsiders.com (Brian Fremeau look him up). The other guy is Bill Connelly and his work on F+ got him a job with ESPN. He analyses college football using his statistical models and publishes his content for ESPN Insider members now.

That would be absolutely perfect, because that is 100% the kind of thing a ND alum would do, with his computer skills or whatnot. That's exactly the sort of thing ND alums are good for. At other elite schools they're like, designing AI that will mimic human intelligence, so they can precolonize planets before the earth becomes unlivable so we can eventually travel to one of Saturn's moons and keep the only known organic life in the universe going. Badass shit like that.

ND grads come up with shit like this....