Why ND will have a REALLY difficult time making the Playoffs.....

[Duo]

While ND is playing a 12 game schedule it will compete against other teams playing a 13 game schedule. Without a Conference Championship game in it's schedule ND will have to be undefeated......12 and 0 and beat all opponents soundly. And even then that may not be enough. A number of variables will come into play:

• There could always be 4 other undefeated teams that are 13 and 0.
• The voting committee might feel like they "owe one" to the likes of TCU or other similar cases.
• The whole strength of schedule might come into play and if ND's opponents are having a bad year that would diminish their claim for a playoff spot.
• I believe most CFB fans acknowledge there is a bias towards the conferences. Sure, and why not. Look at who's voting. Consequently, even a one loss team like Oregon last year might overtake an undefeated ND in the voting.

 

[NDEwing18]

While ND is playing a 12 game schedule it will compete against other teams playing a 13 game schedule. Without a Conference Championship game in it's schedule ND will have to be undefeated......12 and 0 and beat all opponents soundly. And even then that may not be enough. A number of variables will come into play:

• There could always be 4 other undefeated teams that are 13 and 0.
• The voting committee might feel like they "owe one" to the likes of TCU or other similar cases.
• The whole strength of schedule might come into play and if ND's opponents are having a bad year that would diminish their claim for a playoff spot.
• I believe most CFB fans acknowledge there is a bias towards the conferences. Sure, and why not. Look at who's voting. Consequently, even a one loss team like Oregon last year might overtake an undefeated ND in the voting.

1. This scenario will rarely, if ever, happen.
2. I think the likelihood of ND being up against someone who was "screwed over" the year before is rare.
3. If any team's opponents are having a bad year, such a fact would diminish that team's claim for a playoff spot. This is not endemic to Notre Dame.
4. A one-loss conference team will not overtake an undefeated Notre Dame.

 

[DubsDreader]

The initial presumption of this thread is dumb. ND will once again play a far better schedule strength that most. No team with one loss will ever go ahead of an undefeated ND while they will also go ahead of 90% of 12-1 teams if they are 11-1.

 

[Duo]

1. This scenario will rarely, if ever, happen.
2. I think the likelihood of ND being up against someone who was "screwed over" the year before is rare.
3. If any team's opponents are having a bad year, such a fact would diminish that team's claim for a playoff spot. This is not endemic to Notre Dame.
4. A one-loss conference team will not overtake an undefeated Notre Dame.

NDEwing........

I respect your opinions however, that doesn't alter the fact that a majority the voting committee are conference affiliated and therefore biased. One has to wonder how many of those committee members would like to "nudge" ND and urge to join a conference thus increasing the power of the conference system as a whole.

Never say never.

 

[NDEwing18]

NDEwing........

I respect your opinions however, that doesn't alter the fact that a majority the voting committee are conference affiliated and therefore biased. One has to wonder how many of those committee members would like to "nudge" ND and urge to join a conference thus increasing the power of the conference system as a whole.

Never say never.

To which point of mine is this supposed to be in response to?

 

[Duo]

To which point of mine is this supposed to be in response to?

1. This scenario will rarely, if ever, happen.
2. I think the likelihood of ND being up against someone who was "screwed over" the year before is rare.
3. If any team's opponents are having a bad year, such a fact would diminish that team's claim for a playoff spot. This is not endemic to Notre Dame.
4. A one-loss conference team will not overtake an undefeated Notre Dame.

1. Anything is possible. Ask Oregon or even OSU.
2. Rare but possible...........and if it does happen the "we owe you one" scenario could come into play.
3. In any given year any team's slate of opponents can fall through floor. When games are scheduled years in advance many things can change............injuries, probation, suspensions, defections or just plain bad luck.
4. "A one-loss conference team will not overtake an undefeated Notre Dame." That depends. On the face of things you are probably right about this one but there are many contributing factors and again we are dealing with a majority of biased conference affiliated voters.

Going to the playoffs is going to require a certain amount of luck for any team. Winning the NC will require an even larger measure of luck. One thing about it though..........there is always the Luck O' the Irish. Enjoy the season for all of CFB. It should be a great one!

 

[mbd11]

I agree that the current system favors members of conferences, particularly conferences that play championship games. Just look at last year: without its Big Ten CCG win over Wisconsin 59-0, Ohio State probably wouldn't have made it into the playoff. That dominating win pushed them past TCU and Baylor (which didn't play a CCG) and into the 4th spot.

 

[Duo]

I agree that the current system favors members of conferences, particularly conferences that play championship games. Just look at last year: without its Big Ten CCG win over Wisconsin 59-0, Ohio State probably wouldn't have made it into the playoff. That dominating win pushed them past TCU and Baylor (which didn't play a CCG) and into the 4th spot.

MBD11........
Exactly my point. Could a similar fate await ND under similar circumstances? Some say there is no way that could happen to ND. Considering the background of the majority of the voters I wouldn't be so sure about that.

 

[IrishBlooded]

 

[otisco lane]

While ND is playing a 12 game schedule it will compete against other teams playing a 13 game schedule. Without a Conference Championship game in it's schedule ND will have to be undefeated......12 and 0 and beat all opponents soundly. And even then that may not be enough. A number of variables will come into play:

• There could always be 4 other undefeated teams that are 13 and 0.
• The voting committee might feel like they "owe one" to the likes of TCU or other similar cases.
• The whole strength of schedule might come into play and if ND's opponents are having a bad year that would diminish their claim for a playoff spot.
• I believe most CFB fans acknowledge there is a bias towards the conferences. Sure, and why not. Look at who's voting. Consequently, even a one loss team like Oregon last year might overtake an undefeated ND in the voting.

Irish are not going undefeated without an experienced qb or a top 5 defense.

 

[schadenfreude]

I agree that the current system favors members of conferences, particularly conferences that play championship games. Just look at last year: without its Big Ten CCG win over Wisconsin 59-0, Ohio State probably wouldn't have made it into the playoff. That dominating win pushed them past TCU and Baylor (which didn't play a CCG) and into the 4th spot.

You are ignoring the flip side of that scenario. Say ND is undefeated and vying with undefeated Ohio State for the final playoff spot. Ohio State gets upset vs two loss Nebraska in the Big Ten conference championship and that sends ND to the playoff. Playing a tough 13th game only helps with the committee if you win.

 

[IrishBlooded]

You are ignoring the flip side of that scenario. Say ND is undefeated and vying with undefeated Ohio State for the final playoff spot. Ohio State gets upset vs two loss Nebraska in the Big Ten conference championship and that sends ND to the playoff. Playing a tough 13th game only helps with the committee if you win.

Which is fine until you have say this year. A loss to say a top 25 USC. While Ohio State plays 2 challenging games this year (MSU, PSU) and then will get the West division champ. And the West isn't looking all that good at all this year.

So say you have that 1 loss ND (with a pretty decent schedule) and a 1 loss Ohio State, that then wins their CCG. Giving them 12 wins, when ND can't even compete for the 12th win in the regular season under this circumstance. And Ohio State gets 'spot 4' while ND is on the outside looking in. How do you think that will work out.

 

[mokpra37]

An 11-1 ND would have made the playoffs last year. With only the win/loss to FSU which required a late penalty to save it for FSU, ND would have been in ahead of OSU (even with their big win against Wisconsin). ND is no TCU. The Irish would have gotten in.

The OPs opinion is pretty poorly thought out.

 

[IrishBlooded]

An 11-1 ND would have made the playoffs last year.

There is absolutely no proof or evidence of that anywhere. Just wishful thinking and hopes.

 

[schadenfreude]

Which is fine until you have say this year. A loss to say a top 25 USC. While Ohio State plays 2 challenging games this year (MSU, PSU) and then will get the West division champ. And the West isn't looking all that good at all this year.

So say you have that 1 loss ND (with a pretty decent schedule) and a 1 loss Ohio State, that then wins their CCG. Giving them 12 wins, when ND can't even compete for the 12th win in the regular season under this circumstance. And Ohio State gets 'spot 4' while ND is on the outside looking in. How do you think that will work out.

Well, that is your choice. The ACC or Big Ten or another conference would take you and then you could play in a CCG. If you get left out because you yourself decide you don't want to be part of a conference, then who exactly is to blame?

 

[IrishBlooded]

Well, that is your choice. The ACC or Big Ten or another conference would take you and then you could play in a CCG. If you get left out because you yourself decide you don't want to be part of a conference, then who exactly is to blame?

Ummm, you seem to think that somehow, I am, or that I represent in a professional sense ND, or the football team for it.

I assure you I'm just fan that like talking about them. So saying what 'I' should do, or what will happen to 'me' if 'I' don't do something. Is a bit out of context.

You can ask just about every poster here. I'm about the only Domer on this board that isn't against ND joining a P5 conference. As long as it isn't the B1G. Because with the exception of geography. They don't fit.

 

[Duo]

Ara64......

Re: "We need to face reality that a 13-1 conference champion may trump a 12-0 ND with Temple and UMass on the schedule."

You make a very good point especially if a 13-1 conference champion has a really big win in their conference championship game the way OSU did last year. The heavily biased conference voters tend to overlook losses especially early in the year if a conference champion comes on strong at the end of the year.

No matter what you say other posters here will disagree but that is what makes a message board interesting. Should be a very interesting year. And FWIW, my guess is Saban and Alabama will end the year with a lot more than 9 wins as some in Vegas are predicting.

 

[IrishBlooded]

Keep in mind even though ND has UMass and Temple. Almost every team in the country has 'down' games. You can't expect in today's game to play the best opponent every week and expect to make it to the end. It goes back to Lou's old saying...... 'You don't always have to be the best team in the country. You do have to be the best team in the stadium that day.'

Ohio State's schedule includes Hawaii, Western Michigan, and Northern Illinois
USC has: Arky State, Idaho, and ND


Everyone last year wrote off the entire B1G once Ohio State lost to VTech, and you see how that worked out. Ohio State and TCU were playing arguably their best football at the end of the year. However Ohio State beat the tar out of Wisky 59-0 on a neutral field with 1 week to prepare. While TCU was forced to play a no one Iowa State whom they beat 55-3 in a meaningless game that had been on the schedule all year at home.

All things equal. A 12 game schedule will lose to a 13 game schedule every time. Especially when the last time is on a neutral field against a top 25 team.

 

[cgvr]

Keep in mind even though ND has UMass and Temple. Almost every team in the country has 'down' games. You can't expect in today's game to play the best opponent every week and expect to make it to the end. It goes back to Lou's old saying...... 'You don't always have to be the best team in the country. You do have to be the best team in the stadium that day.'

Ohio State's schedule includes Hawaii, Western Michigan, and Northern Illinois
USC has: Arky State, Idaho, and ND


Everyone last year wrote off the entire B1G once Ohio State lost to VTech, and you see how that worked out. Ohio State and TCU were playing arguably their best football at the end of the year. However Ohio State beat the tar out of Wisky 59-0 on a neutral field with 1 week to prepare. While TCU was forced to play a no one Iowa State whom they beat 55-3 in a meaningless game that had been on the schedule all year at home.

All things equal. A 12 game schedule will lose to a 13 game schedule every time. Especially when the last time is on a neutral field against a top 25 team.

"Ohio State's schedule includes Hawaii, Western Michigan, and Northern Illinois
USC has: Arky State, Idaho, and ND."
Ouch. It looks like you are posting ND as a weak opponent. Then again it was 35-0 in the 2nd quarter...

 

[IrishBlooded]

There are only 3 schools left that have not scheduled a D1AA opponent since the 1970's realignment.

ND / USC / UCLA

However that means that sometimes they have to dig a little deeper into D1 opponents (I.e. Arky St., UMass, etc)

 

[schadenfreude]

Ummm, you seem to think that somehow, I am, or that I represent in a professional sense ND, or the football team for it.

I assure you I'm just fan that like talking about them. So saying what 'I' should do, or what will happen to 'me' if 'I' don't do something. Is a bit out of context.

You can ask just about every poster here. I'm about the only Domer on this board that isn't against ND joining a P5 conference. As long as it isn't the B1G. Because with the exception of geography. They don't fit.

Conferences are traditionally based primarily on geography. Midwest vs midwest, southeast vs southeast, etc. Not private vs private or Catholic vs Catholic. The best rivalries are generally the ones where fans are closest.

 

[mbd11]

You are ignoring the flip side of that scenario. Say ND is undefeated and vying with undefeated Ohio State for the final playoff spot. Ohio State gets upset vs two loss Nebraska in the Big Ten conference championship and that sends ND to the playoff. Playing a tough 13th game only helps with the committee if you win.

I know there's a flip side, but in that scenario an undefeated Ohio State would be a prohibitive favorite against a 2-loss Nebraska. So the chances are better that they'd win, and then edge us out for the final spot.

 

[Telx1]

As long as the playoff is limited to four teams and we have five major conferences, there will be a lot of controversy over who gets selected, and frequent injustice. ND will always be at a disadvantage under this structure, and this reality is exacerbated by the lack of a conference championship game. Expand to eight teams and the Conf champs are automatic, major Independent like ND get a fair shot, and superior teams who happened to lose their conf championship game are considered.

 

[HDK]

I think the real reason ND has a tough time getting into the plays is they will probably lose at least two games.

 

[IrishBlooded]

Conferences are traditionally based primarily on geography. Midwest vs midwest, southeast vs southeast, etc. Not private vs private or Catholic vs Catholic. The best rivalries are generally the ones where fans are closest.

All schools are traditionally in a conference as well. Just because something is done the same way back when, doesn't make it the answer for the future. Of course traditionally schools from way back when played those closest to them. Because of the complications of travel, both for the teams (that had players that had to attend class) and the fans. That generally didn't have the time from work, farming, etc. Today though that isn't nearly the issue. Between high speed travel, cable TV, online streaming, etc. There is no need for a school to tie itself to the nearest schools just for the simplicity of it.

If ND asked I would say in a heartbeat, if the goal is to win championships, then the formula should be to go where the recruits, and the ratings are. I mean the best for instance of this. If you look at ND's 5 most played opponents. only 2 of them are from the B1G. And only 1 of them is in Indiana. (In disclosure the list is Navy, USC, PITT, MSU, and Purdue) Going to the 10 most played teams, you only add 2 more B1G (Michigan, and Northwestern) to the mix.

So I guess I'm asking, why would ND join the B1G based traditional rivalries? When by and large, their most common opponents aren't from that area?

 

[schadenfreude]

All schools are traditionally in a conference as well. Just because something is done the same way back when, doesn't make it the answer for the future. Of course traditionally schools from way back when played those closest to them. Because of the complications of travel, both for the teams (that had players that had to attend class) and the fans. That generally didn't have the time from work, farming, etc. Today though that isn't nearly the issue. Between high speed travel, cable TV, online streaming, etc. There is no need for a school to tie itself to the nearest schools just for the simplicity of it.

If ND asked I would say in a heartbeat, if the goal is to win championships, then the formula should be to go where the recruits, and the ratings are. I mean the best for instance of this. If you look at ND's 5 most played opponents. only 2 of them are from the B1G. And only 1 of them is in Indiana. (In disclosure the list is Navy, USC, PITT, MSU, and Purdue) Going to the 10 most played teams, you only add 2 more B1G (Michigan, and Northwestern) to the mix.

So I guess I'm asking, why would ND join the B1G based traditional rivalries? When by and large, their most common opponents aren't from that area?

I think ND's most common opponents are something like USC (west), Navy (east), Purdue (midwest), Sparty, (midwest). And then maybe Army and Pitt. So the Northeast or Midwest is where your most common opponents are located. The Southeast (most of the ACC) is at best third.

I know ND isn't joining any conference because it prefers the advantages of remaining independent. But there are disadvantages too (just as there are advantages/disadvantages to being in a conference). Wanting all the advantages of being in a conference without actually joining a conference will not and should not happen.

 

[cgvr]

I think ND's most common opponents are something like USC (west), Navy (east), Purdue (midwest), Sparty, (midwest). And then maybe Army and Pitt. So the Northeast or Midwest is where your most common opponents are located. The Southeast (most of the ACC) is at best third.

I know ND isn't joining any conference because it prefers the advantages of remaining independent. But there are disadvantages too (just as there are advantages/disadvantages to being in a conference). Wanting all the advantages of being in a conference without actually joining a conference will not and should not happen.

imo ND should never regionalize its' national/global brand. Would compartmentalizing us to a geographic region/conference do that? I'd prefer not to find out...