Way too early Final 4 predictions
- Thread starter MTIrish98
- Start date
B1G - Ohio State
PAC - wide open, honestly think it will be the toughest conference this year, and think it was last year as well
SEC - LSU if they can find a QB, Georgia if they can get their defense on the same page, Bama if the stars can work together, and they stop getting injured, Florida as a dark horse, possibly even Tennessee if all those recruits put it together
I do think if it comes down to an 11-1 TCU vs an 11-1 ND, then ND would get the nod. But I don't think that will happen.
Irish blooded,
Re: "I do think if it comes down to an 11-1 TCU vs an 11-1 ND, then ND would get the nod. But I don't think that will happen."
In that scenario do you think a feeling of "we owe TCU one" after last year would come in to play by the heavily conference favored voting committee?
Re: "I do think if it comes down to an 11-1 TCU vs an 11-1 ND, then ND would get the nod. But I don't think that will happen."
In that scenario do you think a feeling of "we owe TCU one" after last year would come in to play by the heavily conference favored voting committee?
No because their OOC is horrific. In 2015 they have:
@Minni
Stephen F. Austin
SMU
Now I will give it. They face
@Oklahoma
Baylor
As their last two games of the season. So if they are nearly as 'on point' at the end of this season as they were last season. And they don't lose either of those two games (which will be tricky enough) they could give any 11-1 non-conference championship a run for their money. However they get the bulk of their 'big games' at home this year, and have that terrible OOC. Which ND will easily over shadow.
Because the proof is in the pudding. The playoff committee had 128 schools to pick from last year. They picked 4. All four of them won their conference championship. Of the 5 power conferences. The only 1 not chosen was the only 1 to not compete in a 13th game. To me that is pretty telling.
That is funny. PS Kevin Hogan and Kessler will be in the Heisman mix. Heading good stuff about Hogan....
SEC
Big10
Pac12
each will have 2-3 teams capable of the final4.
tOSU looks like it will skate through.
SEC (stats from recruiting say Bama: QB being the issue)
Pac12: USC is just a cut above the rest of the P12 contenders. Recruiting finishes say USC)
the final spot ?
ACC vs Big12
If the Big12 shows as a weak conference it could cost TCU a spot.
FSU has the athletes, but questions at QB.
UGA, Auburn and Clemson could make a run.
Big10
Pac12
each will have 2-3 teams capable of the final4.
tOSU looks like it will skate through.
SEC (stats from recruiting say Bama: QB being the issue)
Pac12: USC is just a cut above the rest of the P12 contenders. Recruiting finishes say USC)
the final spot ?
ACC vs Big12
If the Big12 shows as a weak conference it could cost TCU a spot.
FSU has the athletes, but questions at QB.
UGA, Auburn and Clemson could make a run.
To add another slant here's what Vegas thinks the win totals will be for each school:
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...ohio-state?_ga=1.3311031.624191365.1431393387
No undefeated teams with OSU at 11 wins followed by TCU and Baylor at 10 wins (not counting Marshall).
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...ohio-state?_ga=1.3311031.624191365.1431393387
No undefeated teams with OSU at 11 wins followed by TCU and Baylor at 10 wins (not counting Marshall).
No1e......
Very interesting stuff from Vegas........
"the Buckeyes are a full win higher than any other team. The foursome of Baylor, TCU, Marshall and Wisconsin come in at 10 wins each, with all but Marshall shaded to the under.
Six teams follow at 9.5: Alabama, Boise State, Florida State, Michigan State, Oregon and UCLA. Georgia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Stanford trail closely at nine apiece."
The 6 teams favored to win 9.5 games will be very interesting to watch as they could all go to either 9 or 10 wins and there will be several match ups between them.
In terms of a conference team that has a shot at 11 wins an interesting one to watch is Clemson. They will face ND, BC, GT and FSU all at home. Their only tough road game will be at USCe and perhaps at Miami depending on how Miami shapes up this year and of course, the ACCCG. If Clemson QB Deshaun Watson can remain healthy the entire season Clemson will be a contender in every game they play. On the flip side, no matter what both FSU and USCe seem to have Clemson's number. Lots of possibilities in the ACC, SEC and PAC this year. Not so much in the BIG 10.
This was the article that got me thinking about who might make it this year.
Vegas will never predict any team will go undefeated, that's meaningless.
Of course they have Ohio State with a full win more. They have a terrific coach, a loaded roster, and junk for a schedule
@VTech
Hawaii
Northern Illinois
Western Michigan
@Indiana
Maryland
PSU
@Rutgers
BYE
Minnesota
@Illinois
MSU
@Michigan
BIG CCG
@VTech
Hawaii
Northern Illinois
Western Michigan
@Indiana
Maryland
PSU
@Rutgers
BYE
Minnesota
@Illinois
MSU
@Michigan
BIG CCG
Of course it is telling to you. It supports your ongoing agenda that ND needs to join a conference. I don't know too many people, other than you, who believe that because something happened one year, it is going to happen every year.
Well if something had never happened, then when given the chance happened only 1 way. How many times should that reality be reincarnated before it is accepted as truth?
Will there be years that ND can get into the play off without being conference bound? Absolutely. However more often then not the cards will not be in ND's hands to do that. The instant they lose 1 game, they have to rely on the rest of the country to have a bad record.
My understanding has always been 1 of the biggest reasons to stay Indy was to allow ND to control their own destiny. You can talk recruiting and all that as well. But that isn't how college football is set up today. I never said I prefer ND in a conference. I said if you want to compete for national titles, a conference will open the door more often then not for them. The last Indy national title was 1989. There was a reason, Miami at the height of their power, and FSU at the height of their's went to conferences instead of staying Indy. And winning titles was it.
Will there be years that ND can get into the play off without being conference bound? Absolutely. However more often then not the cards will not be in ND's hands to do that. The instant they lose 1 game, they have to rely on the rest of the country to have a bad record.
My understanding has always been 1 of the biggest reasons to stay Indy was to allow ND to control their own destiny. You can talk recruiting and all that as well. But that isn't how college football is set up today. I never said I prefer ND in a conference. I said if you want to compete for national titles, a conference will open the door more often then not for them. The last Indy national title was 1989. There was a reason, Miami at the height of their power, and FSU at the height of their's went to conferences instead of staying Indy. And winning titles was it.
More than once. Something needs to become a pattern before it is "accepted as truth." Last year may very well have been an anomaly. The idea that you would pencil in the champs of the PAC 12 and Big 10, without even suggesting who they are, is ridiculous.
Yeah, you have repeatedly pushed for ND to join the ACC.
Well then going by that same hand. The last time that a Indy school has won a National Title was 1989. And only 1 time since then has an Indy school 'competed' for the title in a game.
That's 25 instances of proving the conference was stronger. If you then look at the number of times that a school that 'was' Indy won the title you have 5 instances. Or 1 in 5. I'm a numbers guy. I want to see ND compete for titles. The numbers lead you back to 1 place every time.
Is it what I over all prefer? Nope.. But what I like and what reality is often don't line up.
That's 25 instances of proving the conference was stronger. If you then look at the number of times that a school that 'was' Indy won the title you have 5 instances. Or 1 in 5. I'm a numbers guy. I want to see ND compete for titles. The numbers lead you back to 1 place every time.
Is it what I over all prefer? Nope.. But what I like and what reality is often don't line up.
Do you think that could have something to do with the fact that ND has been subpar, by and large, since Lou Holtz left, and because the other independents have been Navy, Army, and BYU?
Yes it can be explained that way. It can also be explained as it was. When Bowden (and I swear to God Argus if you come in here and wreck this it's war) was asked. He offered the answer freely. He wanted to join the ACC. Why? Because his job as a head coach was to win titles. The easiest and best path to accomplish that was to join the ACC, not stay Indy, and not join the SEC (whom had an open offer to FSU at the time). Since that decision was made they have 3 national titles (and played for 3 more), ND has 0 (and 'played' for 1). They also have 15 ACC titles, and if you don't think those help recruiting. You are crazy. Yes you can say Bobby was a terrific coach, and yes Jimbo has stepped up and kept the program going where ND didn't have that happen.
At the end of the day I want to see ND win titles. Being Indy is counter productive to that. Is it possible for ND to win a title as an Indy? Absolutely. However their % chance is so greatly reduced specifically for being Indy vs being in a conference.
At the end of the day I want to see ND win titles. Being Indy is counter productive to that. Is it possible for ND to win a title as an Indy? Absolutely. However their % chance is so greatly reduced specifically for being Indy vs being in a conference.
I think you are explaining FSU's success in a factual vacuum. Until the 1980's, FSU was a nothing program. They only began playing CFB in 1954. They had no history or tradition. They made their mark by playing power teams on the road---because no one would go to Tallahassee to play them. They also had a damn good coach, in the person of Bobby Bowden, come aboard. So when you recite that FSU played for three titles after becoming a member of the ACC, it's more than the fact they joined the ACC. It's a lot of things coming together.
ND played for the NC just three years ago. There is no reason to think ND can't do so again. I totally disagree with your claim that ND's chance for doing so is "greatly reduced" by not being in a conference.
Or their record. The Pac-12 champ, for example, could have 2 or 3 losses.
Once the field expands to 8 teams (which is inevitable IMHO), the pressure to join a conference will be gone. The original TV contract for a 4 team field was for 3 years. I expect the expansion to happen for the playoffs following the 2017 season.
Great. What is the date that is scheduled to happen? Which by the way is actually 12 years, not less. And many have said time and again, that there isn't a 'look in' option. None of us really know, because we don't have access to it.
Seriously though, think about what happens if you expand the playoff. And these are real issues.
1. If you expand to say 6 teams. You could have 1 CC from each P5 team, and 1 at large. Offering ND an easy way in. Many would complain about exactly that. That it would be the college football world offering ND a BCS type backdoor into the playoff.
2. If you make it 6 or 8 teams, then those teams that currently play a conference championship would play as many (if not more) games then a regular season NFL schedule. With the championship when they need to play their best football falling at finals time. It would go
12 game schedule
1 CCG
2 rounds playoff
1 championship game
16 games
If you use the 'Hawaii' rule that is 17 regular season games. For a college kid.
I just don't see TCU and Baylor dominating like they did last year. Texas and OU are still the big brothers of the big 12 and I think one or both of them will be at the top of the conference in 2015.
Correct, it is a 12 year contract for the TV broadcast rights, BUT it allowed for the structure to change after 3 years. There was an article about expansion at the beginning of last season. Basically it said 2017 is the first season they could do it. There's money in it, so I expect it to happen at some point.
I fully understand the implications on college athletes and I do not like how big the I-AA tournament has gotten.
I personally think the best path is to get the college presidents to agree on getting rid of the championship games and replace them with the first round of playoffs. 8 teams, 5 guaranteed slots for the Big 5 conferences, 3 at large slots for ND/BYU/BSU or the best runners-up in the Big 5.
I don't believe this will happen. There is simply too much money to be made in CCG's. I personally oppose automatic bids for conference champions, but that's another discussion.
If you don't have a CCG, how do you really crown a champion? I mean you have to go backward to figuring out like they did way back when, for tie breakers, and best of best records and all that. When a CCG is so clean. You have 2 divisions. 2 best records meet head to head. How simplistic that is makes it awesome. Look at TCU and Baylor from this past season when they were crowned 'co champions' and how that worked out.
Even if you use the argument of saying that last year isn't going to be normal, and that all data from it shouldn't be used until there are more examples and a better baseline. I can't possibly see the Conferences dropping their championship games. The fans are the biggest driver of those, and no one is giving that up.
Here's the article that got me thinking about it.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...ege-football-playoff-to-expand-to-eight-teams
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...ege-football-playoff-to-expand-to-eight-teams
NDSMC78...........
Re: " I personally oppose automatic bids for conference champions, but that's another discussion."
In the final analysis it doesn't matter what you and I may think because the majority of the people making the decisions are all from conferences. And they all know one another to boot.
Let's say a conference team with the same number of wins as an independent is vying for the 4th spot in the playoffs. Would it be going out on a limb to imagine a conference leader talking with other conference leaders in the voting committee and saying something like, "Guys I need you to vote for my team for the 4th playoff spot. We have to stick together and if the same circumstances come up in the future with one of your teams you can count on my vote." I believe that is the real world. In fact, I'd be shocked if the vote went any other way.
Re: " I personally oppose automatic bids for conference champions, but that's another discussion."
In the final analysis it doesn't matter what you and I may think because the majority of the people making the decisions are all from conferences. And they all know one another to boot.
Let's say a conference team with the same number of wins as an independent is vying for the 4th spot in the playoffs. Would it be going out on a limb to imagine a conference leader talking with other conference leaders in the voting committee and saying something like, "Guys I need you to vote for my team for the 4th playoff spot. We have to stick together and if the same circumstances come up in the future with one of your teams you can count on my vote." I believe that is the real world. In fact, I'd be shocked if the vote went any other way.
I think OSU will lost two games this year. Alabama will be back with new starter QB.Michigan will be back with new HC. Notre Dame will not make it this year with new starter Zaire but ND will go great Bowl game. Baylor and TCU will be fight for top 4.
Latest posts
-
BAS: Notre Dame blasts Boston College, 14-3, in ACC series opener- Latest: Eric Hansen
-
